Natural hazard risk by region
FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025) and NOAA Storm Events, by Census region
FEMA's model puts the largest expected annual loss in the South ($53.4B a year) and the West ($51.1B). The largest single hazard is riverine flooding in the Northeast, Midwest and South; earthquake in the West. The record of what happened ranks differently: since 1996 the deadliest hazard has been heat in the Northeast, winter storms in the Midwest, tornadoes in the South, heat in the West.
By PlainHazard Editorial · Updated · How this was measured
Expected annual loss by hazard and region
| Hazard | Northeast | Midwest | South | West |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riverine Flooding | $10.1B (16%) | $13.8B (21%) | $21.3B (33%) | $19.8B (30%) |
| Earthquake | $716M (3%) | $1.2B (5%) | $2.6B (10%) | $21.1B (82%) |
| Hurricane | $1.1B (9%) | $11M (0%) | $11.3B (91%) | $2.4M (0%) |
| Tornado | $464M (4%) | $4.4B (38%) | $6.4B (55%) | $308M (3%) |
| Cold Wave | $863M (9%) | $4.7B (48%) | $3.5B (35%) | $782M (8%) |
| Heat Wave | $863M (12%) | $1.7B (25%) | $2.4B (33%) | $2.1B (30%) |
| Wildfire | $19M (0%) | $160M (4%) | $404M (10%) | $3.3B (85%) |
| Hail | $53M (2%) | $1.3B (41%) | $1.4B (43%) | $445M (14%) |
| Strong Wind | $516M (16%) | $1.3B (40%) | $1.2B (39%) | $151M (5%) |
| Drought | $52M (2%) | $654M (24%) | $881M (33%) | $1.1B (41%) |
| Lightning | $181M (11%) | $317M (20%) | $793M (50%) | $285M (18%) |
| Ice Storm | $132M (13%) | $283M (28%) | $545M (54%) | $42M (4%) |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, December 2025 release, county expected annual loss summed by Census region. FEMA's National Risk Index map.
Each region at a glance
| Region | Largest modeled losses | Deadliest in the record since 1996 |
|---|---|---|
| Northeast | Riverine Flooding $10.1B; Hurricane $1.1B; Heat Wave $863M | Heat: 594 deaths |
| Midwest | Riverine Flooding $13.8B; Cold Wave $4.7B; Tornado $4.4B | Winter storms: 880 deaths |
| South | Riverine Flooding $21.3B; Hurricane $11.3B; Tornado $6.4B | Tornadoes: 1,674 deaths |
| West | Earthquake $21.1B; Riverine Flooding $19.8B; Wildfire $3.3B | Heat: 4,173 deaths |
The West's heat deaths are mostly Arizona's: 2,815 of them since 1996, most filed after 2016, when the heat deaths reported there rose sharply (measured here).
Source: FEMA National Risk Index; NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database. Search the record at NCEI.
How this was measured
FEMA's National Risk Index estimates each county's expected annual loss (EAL, dollars a year) from 18 hazards; the county figures are summed by U.S. Census region. Beside it, the deaths NOAA recorded by hazard in each region since 1996.
Sources
FEMA National Risk Index, county table (December 2025); NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, 1996 to 2026-06-30; U.S. Census Bureau, Census Regions and Divisions of the United States.
Limits
Expected annual loss is a model of future loss to buildings, people (valued in dollars) and agriculture; it is not a record of what happened, and it differs from the storm record by design. Deaths and modeled dollar losses answer different questions.