FEMA Records
16
Below median
South Dakota · FEMA + NOAA + National Risk Index
Sully County, SD
16 FEMA disaster declarations (1976-2020), with a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Very Low. Most common hazard: Flood.
- 16
- FEMA declarations
- 13
- Major disasters
- 6
- NRI risk · Very Low
- Flood
- Top hazard
The verdict
Sully County has a nationally busy FEMA history: 16 declarations, more than 27% of counties in this registry. But the state comparison tempers that reading: the total is 16% below the South Dakota county mean. FEMA's separate National Risk Index places the county safer than 6%; that score models loss and vulnerability rather than counting declarations.
- Safer than 6%
- of U.S. counties for FEMA National Risk Index score
- Very Low
- FEMA National Risk Index rating
- 16
- FEMA declarations vs 21 national county avg
- 5
- NFIP flood insurance claims filed
FEMA's National Risk Index and its declaration registry are separate measures. This county's registry includes Major Disaster (DR) and Emergency (EM) records; an EM authorizes a narrower set of federal assistance than a DR.
How does Sully County compare?
Sully County vs. all counties in this dataset
FEMA disaster declarations, all-time
16 27th percentile higher than 27% of 3,266 counties
Each bar is a band; taller bars hold more counties. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count, share, and where it sits relative to this entry.
Source FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 · 2026-08-03
Sully County's FEMA Risk Index score
FEMA National Risk Index composite score vs. the South Dakota county average
Which hazard drives modeled loss here?
FEMA's modeled annual dollar loss for Sully County is led by Riverine Flooding (about $2.6M Expected Annual Loss, Historical Loss Ratio Very High), while Wildfire carries the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively Low). EAL and risk score use different inputs; they need not agree.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025 release) - Expected Annual Loss vs composite risk rating by hazard.
What does Sully County's hazard record show?
Declaration frequency
Nationally, Sully County's 16 FEMA records form a high-volume history; within South Dakota, however, the count is 16% below the county mean. 13 entries carry the Major Disaster classification. The largest incident group is Flood, appearing 6 times. The full 44-year record averages 0.4 declarations annually. A DR label alone does not say whether Individual Assistance, Public Assistance, or both followed.
FEMA National Risk Index
FEMA's National Risk Index places this county in the low end of the national distribution, composite score 6.3/100 (Very Low). Expected Annual Loss is rated Very Low (roughly $5.2M in annualized losses). Two modifiers shape how that exposure becomes real-world harm here: social vulnerability (Very Low) and community resilience (Relatively High). Even the county's top-rated hazard, Wildfire, only reaches Relatively Low on FEMA's scale, none of the 18 modeled hazards stand out here. FEMA's modeled frequency puts that hazard at roughly once every 918 years here.
Reading the federal records together
This county has a small entry in FEMA's NFIP paid-claims table: 5 claims and $22.8K paid in total. PlainHazard calls 1-49 claims a light registry record, a label for this dataset rather than a finding that flood exposure is low. A short claims history can also reflect insurance take-up, the period covered, or losses that were never insured.
Start with the state benchmark: a South Dakota county averages 19.0 federal declaration records, while Sully County has 16. The gap is 16% below that mean. Fewer entries indicate a quieter history of recorded federal actions, not immunity from a hazard and not a prediction about what happens next.
58 /100
Historical Activity Index
High historical activity
Sully County, SD · PlainHazard-derived composite from federal records
This 0–100 index is an explicit PlainHazard composite from FEMA declaration history only on the county surface (this DB has no county-level NOAA damage row) . It is not FEMA's National Risk Index, not a forecast, and not a safety, insurance, or preparedness rating. Open the calculator · Methodology
FEMA Declarations (1953–present) Moderate
12/30
16 OpenFEMA declarations, full ingest window (0.8x national county average)
County Disaster Density Moderate
11/25
16 declarations (0.8x state county average of 19)
Major Disaster Share Very High
20/25
13 of 16 declarations are major disasters (81%)
Hazard Diversity Very High
15/20
6 different disaster types declared in Sully County
Historical Declaration Activity
Activity Band
High
vs. South Dakota Avg
-16%
State avg: 19.0
vs. National Avg
-23%
National avg: 20.7
Avg Per Year
0.4
Over 44 years
FEMA NRI 8-hazard radar - Sully County
How to read this radar
Each axis: NRI risk rating (Very Low-Very High) on a 0-100 scale. Rounder = broad exposure; spiky = one or two hazards dominate.
Major Disaster share
81%
Mostly major
NRI risk score
6
Very Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Per-county per-hazard ratings, December 2025 release
How often does each hazard strike Sully County?
FEMA's National Risk Index models a historical event count and an annualized frequency for each hazard type. Most hazards are expressed as modeled occurrences per year; FEMA expresses drought and heat-wave frequency as event-days per year. These modeled frequencies are not forecasts.
| Hazard | NRI Risk Rating | Recurrence |
|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | roughly once every 918 years |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | an average of 7.7 times per year |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | an average of 17 times per year |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 36 modeled event-days per year |
| Hail | Relatively Low | an average of 3.3 times per year |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | roughly once every 2 years |
| Tornado | Very Low | roughly once every 3 years |
| Riverine Flooding | Very Low | roughly once every 2 years |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | an average of 2.5 times per year |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 3.8 modeled event-days per year |
| Landslide | Very Low | roughly once every 8 years |
| Earthquake | Very Low | roughly once every 3,215 years |
| Lightning | Very Low | an average of 32 times per year |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Modeled annualized frequency; drought and heat wave use event-days/year, December 2025 release
Disaster Types
Flood 6
Severe Storm 5
Biological 2
Coastal Storm 1
Snowstorm 1
Drought 1
What Flood declarations mean here
Flood is the most frequent declaration type on Sully County's record, 38% of its declarations. Federal flood declarations cover two mechanisms that behave very differently: riverine flooding, which builds over days as a watershed drains and is usually forecast well in advance, and flash flooding, which can arrive in under an hour from rainfall that fell somewhere upstream.
Flood is also the one hazard class where a second federal dataset exists for the same events. The National Flood Insurance Program records what was actually paid on insured losses, so it measures a narrower thing than the declaration count: uninsured damage, and flooding outside mapped special flood hazard areas, never enters it. Reading the two together is more informative than either alone.
Declaration counts describe past federal action. They are a record of what was declared, not a forecast of future hazard probability.
Declaration Types
What DR / EM / FM mean
FEMA categorizes declarations as Major Disasters (DR), Emergencies (EM), or Fire Management Assistance (FM).
Major Disaster - 13 81.3%
of all 16 declarations
Emergency - 3 18.8%
of all 16 declarations
FEMA Declarations Timeline
| Year | Declarations | |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2 | |
| 2019 | 1 | |
| 2017 | 1 | |
| 2011 | 1 | |
| 2010 | 2 | |
| 2005 | 2 | |
| 1997 | 2 | |
| 1995 | 2 | |
| 1994 | 1 | |
| 1986 | 1 | |
| 1976 | 1 | |
Disaster Declarations
How the 16 FEMA declarations break into federal action codes (DR / EM / FM). Same DISTINCT grain as the table below.
Download these 16 declarations as CSV . FEMA source data is public domain; our derived presentation is CC0.
| DR# | Title | Type | Incident | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4527 | COVID-19 PANDEMIC | DR | Biological | 2020-04-05 |
| 3475 | COVID-19 | EM | Biological | 2020-03-13 |
| 4440 | SEVERE WINTER STORM, SNOWSTORM, AND FLOODING | DR | Flood | 2019-06-07 |
| 4298 | SEVERE WINTER STORM | DR | Severe Storm | 2017-02-01 |
| 1984 | FLOODING | DR | Flood | 2011-05-13 |
| 1915 | FLOODING | DR | Flood | 2010-05-13 |
| 1887 | SEVERE WINTER STORM | DR | Severe Storm | 2010-03-10 |
| 3234 | HURRICANE KATRINA EVACUATION | EM | Coastal Storm | 2005-09-10 |
| 1596 | SEVERE STORM | DR | Severe Storm | 2005-07-22 |
| 1173 | SEVERE FLOODING, SEVER WINTER STORMS,HEAVY RAINS HIGH WINDS | DR | Flood | 1997-04-07 |
| 1156 | SEVERE WINTER STORMS AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS | DR | Severe Storm | 1997-01-10 |
| 1052 | FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1995-05-26 |
| 1045 | SEVERE WINTER STORMS | DR | Snowstorm | 1995-03-14 |
| 1031 | SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 1994-06-21 |
| 764 | SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1986-05-03 |
| 3015 | DROUGHT | EM | Drought | 1976-06-17 |
Storm Events in South Dakota
Statewide NOAA context only. PlainHazard does not currently attribute these state totals to Sully County.
| Storm Type | Events | Fatalities | Injuries | Property Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunderstorm Wind | 5,388 | 7 | 21 | $10.7M |
| Hail | 4,801 | 0 | 3 | $4.5M |
| High Wind | 2,277 | 0 | 1 | $35.0K |
| Winter Weather | 2,125 | 20 | 50 | $133.0K |
| Flood | 1,523 | 5 | 0 | $196.2M |
Source: NOAA Storm Events Database State-level aggregated data, 2015-2025
NFIP Flood Insurance Claims
Total Claims
5
Total Paid
$22.8K
Avg Per Claim
$4.6K
Source: FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA Claims Data
FEMA National Risk Index
Overall Risk
Very Low
Score: 6.3/100
Expected Annual Loss
Very Low
$5.2M/year
Social Vulnerability
Very Low
Community Resilience
Relatively High
Hazard Risk Breakdown
Wildfire Relatively Low
Cold Wave Relatively Low
Winter Weather Relatively Low
Drought Relatively Low
Hail Relatively Low
Ice Storm Very Low
Tornado Very Low
Riverine Flooding Very Low
Strong Wind Very Low
Heat Wave Very Low
Landslide Very Low
Earthquake Very Low
Lightning Very Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) Ratings reflect relative scores among all US counties. Data: hazards.fema.gov/nri
The model's sharpest exposure here: Wildfire
Wildfire risk in the model reflects fuel, terrain, weather and how much development sits in the wildland-urban interface. It is one of the few hazards where the exposure is materially changed by land management and building choices, not only by where the county happens to be.
Worth noting for Sully County: the model and the federal record do NOT point at the same hazard. Wildfire carries the highest modeled rating (Relatively Low), while the county's declaration history is led by Flood. That is not a contradiction, the two measure genuinely different things. Declarations record federal ACTION, which requires damage costly enough to exceed state and local capacity; the Risk Index models EXPECTED annual loss across all 18 hazards whether or not any declaration ever followed. A hazard can be the county's largest modeled exposure and never once have driven a declaration.
National Risk Index ratings are modeled estimates of expected annual loss, not predictions of what will happen in any given year.
Data-matched county comparisons
Sully County's closest FEMA peer: Madison County, IL
Comparisons use published FEMA declaration fields plus the National Risk Index composite for Sully County. Record similarity, not a safety rating.
Closest declaration profiles
Sully County shows 16 FEMA declarations, led by Flood.
Similar Major-disaster share
Sully County: 13 of 16 of its declarations are Major.
Similar modeled NRI score
Sully County: NRI composite 6.3 (Very Low).
How these peers are chosen
Cohort: Published U.S. county equivalents outside the source state or territory. Each metric keeps six ETL candidates; three unique destinations are shown after de-duplicating across axes. Declaration-volume ranking combines count and Major-disaster share and prefers a different leading incident type; Major-share ranks the Major fraction adjusted for volume; NRI ranks the modeled composite score only.
Retained FEMA snapshot feed for Sully County - capture-dated entries only.
Further reading for this county
Most disaster-prone counties
With 16 FEMA declarations, Sully County sits in the high-volume declaration band - see how that count ranks against other U.S. counties.
More PlainHazard guides
- Most disaster-prone counties - U.S. counties ranked by FEMA declaration totals.
- Understanding disaster data - declarations vs storm events vs NRI scores.
- Preparing for natural disasters - household checklist (not county-specific advice).
Related
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most common disaster type in Sully County?
The most common disaster type in Sully County is Flood, with 6 declarations. Other disaster types include Severe Storm (5), Biological (2), Coastal Storm (1).
How does Sully County's FEMA declaration record compare with the South Dakota average?
The typical South Dakota county has 19.0 FEMA declaration records; Sully County has 16, or 16% fewer. Against the national county mean of 20.7, this county's total is 23% lower. The comparison is historical and says nothing about the probability of a future event.
How many major FEMA disaster declarations has Sully County received?
Sully County has received 13 major disaster declarations, representing 81% of all 16 disaster declarations.
How many flood insurance claims has Sully County filed?
Sully County has 5 National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims totaling $22.8K in payments, with an average of $4.6K per claim.
Does FEMA's top risk-rated hazard match the highest Expected Annual Loss in Sully County?
No. In Sully County, Wildfire has the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively Low), while Riverine Flooding leads Expected Annual Loss at about $2.6M. FEMA's risk score and dollar-loss model use different inputs, so the leaders often differ.
What was the worst year for disasters in Sully County?
The most active year for disaster declarations in Sully County was 1995, with 2 declarations. The county has FEMA disaster data spanning 1976 to 2020.
What is the FEMA National Risk Index score for Sully County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, Sully County, South Dakota has an overall risk score of 6.3 out of 100 (Very Low). On social vulnerability the county rates Very Low; on community resilience, Relatively High. The Expected Annual Loss (EAL) score is Very Low, representing $5.2M in annualized losses.
Which natural hazard poses the greatest risk to Sully County?
Based on FEMA NRI data, the highest-risk natural hazard in Sully County is Wildfire (risk rating: Relatively Low). Other significant hazards include Cold Wave (Relatively Low) and Winter Weather (Relatively Low). FEMA's modeled event frequency puts wildfire here at roughly once every 918 years. These scores are based on FEMA's analysis of historical event frequency, exposed assets, and community vulnerability.
Data Sources & Methodology
Disaster declaration data comes from the FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 API, which includes all federally declared disasters, emergencies, and fire management assistance grants.
Storm event data is sourced from the NOAA Storm Events Database (2015-2025), which tracks significant weather events including thunderstorms, tornadoes, floods, and winter storms.
Flood insurance data comes from the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA claims dataset.
This data is provided for informational purposes only. FEMA disaster declarations represent federal response actions and may not capture all local emergencies or weather events.
What this means for Sully County
Against a South Dakota county mean of 19 declarations, Sully County, SD records 16, or 16% fewer. PlainHazard classifies that historical total as high activity.
- Major Disaster is the largest group (13 of 16) in a declaration history that remains below its state benchmark; frequency here is not a forecast. South Dakota overview
- Nationally the county exceeds 27% of recorded county totals, but its own South Dakota benchmark is higher. The ranking keeps those two contexts separate. Most-disaster rankings
- A short NFIP claims file cannot establish low flood exposure; the data guide explains the limits of each federal measure. Disaster-data guide
A below-average federal record is not a safety guarantee. Use National Weather Service alerts and local emergency-management notices for present conditions, not this historical comparison.
PlainHazard derives this profile from FEMA's Disaster Declarations Summaries and National Risk Index data. The declaration comparison covers 3,266 U.S. counties and county equivalents in this database, refreshed as of 2026-08-03. Read our methodology - how this data is sourced, computed, and verified.
All federal data sources used on this page
- FEMA OpenFEMA, Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 - all federally-declared disasters for this county. fema.gov/openfema/disaster-declarations
- FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) - per-county per-hazard risk ratings and expected annual loss. hazards.fema.gov/nri
- NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database - state-level storm/severe-weather event records, 2015-2025. ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents
Data sourced from official public datasets. See our methodology for details. Retrieved and formatted by PlainHazard Editorial
Verify with FEMA → · Verify with FEMA NRI → · Verify with NOAA →
Every figure on PlainHazard is rendered directly from FEMA federal disaster data, no number is typed in by an editor. See our editorial standards & corrections policy, the methodology behind these numbers, or national statistics report, the data & editorial changelog, or report a data error.