FEMA Records
12
Low volume
Montana · FEMA + NOAA + National Risk Index
Toole County, MT
12 FEMA disaster declarations (1975-2024), with a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Very Low. Most common hazard: Severe Storm.
- 12
- FEMA declarations
- 10
- Major disasters
- 13
- NRI risk · Very Low
- Severe Storm
- Top hazard
The verdict
Two federal records point in the busier direction for Toole County. Its 12 FEMA declarations are 9% above the Montana county mean and exceed the count for 14% of the 3,266 counties in this registry. Separately, FEMA's National Risk Index places it safer than 13%, based on modeled expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience.
- Safer than 13%
- of U.S. counties for FEMA National Risk Index score
- Very Low
- FEMA National Risk Index rating
- 12
- FEMA declarations vs 21 national county avg
- 1
- NFIP flood insurance claims filed
FEMA's National Risk Index and its declaration registry are separate measures. This county's registry includes Major Disaster (DR) and Emergency (EM) records; an EM authorizes a narrower set of federal assistance than a DR.
FEMA OpenFEMA declaration desk
County FIPS 30101 · Toole County 12 declarations · rank 2774/3,266
DECL-MID · MAJOR-HEAVY · RANK-LOWER · PHOTO-FINISH · NRI-LOW · ACT-HIGH · TYPE-LEAD · VS-ST-ABOVE
- DECL-MID 12
- MAJOR-HEAVY 83%
- RANK-LOWER #2,774
- PHOTO-FINISH Johnson
- NRI-LOW Very Low
- ACT-HIGH High
- TYPE-LEAD Severe Storm
- VS-ST-ABOVE +9%
Nearest declaration peer: Johnson, KS (0 declaration gap)
FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 filing stamps for this county register. Read with this county → · Montana state profile
Toole County among counties with fewer federal records
FEMA declaration records among Toole County and nearest peers by total count
- Los Angeles · largest
Los Angeles · largest
88 declarations
- Crane · near 12
Crane · near
12 declarations
- Johnson · near 12
Johnson · near
12 declarations
- Seward · near 12
Seward · near
12 declarations
- Toole · this county 12
Toole · this county
12 declarations
- Ujelang · smallest 1
Ujelang · smallest
1 declarations
What this shows Toole County carries 12 FEMA declaration records, ranked 2774 of 3,266 counties in this registry.
Toole County versus quieter counties in this dataset
Toole County among lower-declaration counties nationally
FEMA disaster declarations, all-time · Toole County
12 14th percentile higher than 14% of 3,266 counties
Each bar is a band; taller bars hold more counties. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count, share, and where it sits relative to this entry.
Source FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 · 2026-08-25
Toole County's FEMA Risk Index score
What does Toole County's hazard record show?
FEMA National Risk Index
FEMA's National Risk Index places this county in the low end of the national distribution, composite score 13.0/100 (Very Low). Expected Annual Loss is rated Very Low (roughly $4.5M in annualized losses). Two modifiers shape how that exposure becomes real-world harm here: social vulnerability (Relatively High) and community resilience (Very Low). Among the 18 modeled hazards, Cold Wave carries the county's highest rating, a mid-range Relatively Moderate. FEMA's modeled frequency puts that hazard at an average of 11 times per year here, based on 200 historical events on record.
Reading the federal records together
This county has a small entry in FEMA's NFIP paid-claims table: 1 claim and $416 paid in total. PlainHazard calls 1-49 claims a light registry record, a label for this dataset rather than a finding that flood exposure is low. A short claims history can also reflect insurance take-up, the period covered, or losses that were never insured.
The declaration register points in the busier direction. Toole County's 12 federal records stand 9% above the Montana county mean of 11.0. That comparison describes how often federal action was recorded, including any Major Disaster, Emergency, and Fire Management entries shown on this page; it does not convert the count into future probability.
57 /100
Historical Activity Index
High historical activity
Toole County, MT · PlainHazard-derived composite from federal records
This 0–100 index is an explicit PlainHazard composite from FEMA declaration history only on the county surface (this DB has no county-level NOAA damage row) . It is not FEMA's National Risk Index, not a forecast, and not a safety, insurance, or preparedness rating. Open the calculator · Methodology
FEMA Declarations (1953–present) Moderate
9/30
12 OpenFEMA declarations, full ingest window (0.6x national county average)
County Disaster Density High
14/25
12 declarations (1.1x state county average of 11)
Major Disaster Share Very High
21/25
10 of 12 declarations are major disasters (83%)
Hazard Diversity High
13/20
5 different disaster types declared in Toole County
FEMA NRI 8-hazard radar - Toole County
How to read this radar
Each axis: NRI risk rating (Very Low-Very High) on a 0-100 scale. Rounder = broad exposure; spiky = one or two hazards dominate.
Major Disaster share
83%
Mostly major
NRI risk score
13
Very Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Per-county per-hazard ratings, December 2025 release
How often does each hazard strike Toole County?
FEMA's National Risk Index models a historical event count and an annualized frequency for each hazard type. Most hazards are expressed as modeled occurrences per year; FEMA expresses drought and heat-wave frequency as event-days per year. These modeled frequencies are not forecasts.
| Hazard | NRI Risk Rating | Recurrence |
|---|---|---|
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | an average of 11 times per year |
| Wildfire | Very Low | roughly once every 2,915 years |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | an average of 22 times per year |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 59 modeled event-days per year |
| Earthquake | Very Low | roughly once every 883 years |
| Landslide | Very Low | roughly once every 3 years |
| Riverine Flooding | Very Low | roughly once every 6 years |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | roughly once every 2 years |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 1 modeled event-day per year |
| Lightning | Very Low | an average of 20 times per year |
| Avalanche | Very Low | roughly once every 100 years |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | roughly once every 67 years |
| Tornado | Very Low | roughly once every 22 years |
| Hail | Very Low | roughly once every 2 years |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Modeled annualized frequency; drought and heat wave use event-days/year, December 2025 release
Disaster Types
Severe Storm 5
Flood 3
Biological 2
Hurricane 1
Fire 1
What Severe Storm declarations mean here
Severe Storm is the most frequent declaration type on Toole County's record, 42% of its declarations. In FEMA's vocabulary this covers convective weather: thunderstorm straight-line winds, large hail, and the multi-day outbreaks that often carry embedded tornadoes. Activity is heaviest in spring and summer, though the season varies by region.
These events behave differently from a hurricane on paper. Damage tends to be distributed along a storm track rather than concentrated on a coastline, and a declaration typically follows an outbreak that crossed several counties over a few days, not a single point of impact. Because the qualifying threshold is the cost of uninsured public and individual losses rather than storm intensity, two similar storms can produce a declaration in one year and none in another.
Declaration counts describe past federal action. They are a record of what was declared, not a forecast of future hazard probability.
Declaration Types
What DR / EM / FM mean
FEMA categorizes declarations as Major Disasters (DR), Emergencies (EM), or Fire Management Assistance (FM).
Major Disaster - 10 83.3%
of all 12 declarations
Emergency - 2 16.7%
of all 12 declarations
FEMA Declarations Timeline
| Year | Declarations | |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 1 | |
| 2020 | 2 | |
| 2018 | 1 | |
| 2016 | 1 | |
| 2011 | 1 | |
| 2005 | 1 | |
| 2002 | 1 | |
| 2000 | 1 | |
| 1996 | 1 | |
| 1986 | 1 | |
| 1975 | 1 | |
Disaster Declarations
How the 12 FEMA declarations break into federal action codes (DR / EM / FM). Same DISTINCT grain as the table below.
Download these 12 declarations as CSV . FEMA source data is public domain; our derived presentation is CC0.
| DR# | Title | Type | Incident | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4801 | SEVERE WINTER STORM AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2024-07-18 |
| 4508 | COVID-19 PANDEMIC | DR | Biological | 2020-03-31 |
| 3476 | COVID-19 | EM | Biological | 2020-03-13 |
| 4388 | FLOODING | DR | Flood | 2018-08-30 |
| 4271 | SEVERE WINTER STORM AND STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS | DR | Severe Storm | 2016-05-24 |
| 1996 | SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2011-06-17 |
| 3253 | HURRICANE KATRINA EVACUATION | EM | Hurricane | 2005-09-13 |
| 1424 | SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2002-07-03 |
| 1340 | WILDFIRES | DR | Fire | 2000-08-30 |
| 1113 | SEVERE STORMS, FLOODING, ICE JAMS, SOIL SATURATION | DR | Severe Storm | 1996-05-16 |
| 761 | HEAVY RAINS, LANDSLIDES & FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1986-03-15 |
| 472 | RAINS, SHOWMELT, STORMS & FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1975-06-28 |
Storm Events in Montana
Statewide NOAA context only. PlainHazard does not currently attribute these state totals to Toole County.
| Storm Type | Events | Fatalities | Injuries | Property Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| High Wind | 3,735 | 1 | 2 | $5.3M |
| Thunderstorm Wind | 2,396 | 5 | 24 | $15.1M |
| Hail | 2,015 | 0 | 0 | $4.1M |
| Winter Storm | 1,502 | 13 | 18 | $11.2M |
| Heavy Snow | 796 | 5 | 3 | $143.0K |
Source: NOAA Storm Events Database State-level aggregated data, 2015-2025
NFIP Flood Insurance Claims
Total Claims
1
Total Paid
$416
Avg Per Claim
$416
Source: FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA Claims Data
FEMA National Risk Index
Overall Risk
Very Low
Score: 13.0/100
Expected Annual Loss
Very Low
$4.5M/year
Social Vulnerability
Relatively High
Community Resilience
Very Low
Hazard Risk Breakdown
Cold Wave Relatively Moderate
Wildfire Very Low
Winter Weather Relatively Low
Drought Relatively Low
Earthquake Very Low
Landslide Very Low
Riverine Flooding Very Low
Strong Wind Very Low
Heat Wave Very Low
Lightning Very Low
Avalanche Very Low
Ice Storm Very Low
Tornado Very Low
Hail Very Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) Ratings reflect relative scores among all US counties. Data: hazards.fema.gov/nri
The model's sharpest exposure here: Cold Wave
Cold Wave measures exposure to extreme cold rather than to snow. Its harm is concentrated in health effects, burst infrastructure and energy demand spikes, and it falls hardest where the building stock and the grid were not built with sustained cold in mind.
Worth noting for Toole County: the model and the federal record do NOT point at the same hazard. Cold Wave carries the highest modeled rating (Relatively Moderate), while the county's declaration history is led by Severe Storm. That is not a contradiction, the two measure genuinely different things. Declarations record federal ACTION, which requires damage costly enough to exceed state and local capacity; the Risk Index models EXPECTED annual loss across all 18 hazards whether or not any declaration ever followed. A hazard can be the county's largest modeled exposure and never once have driven a declaration.
National Risk Index ratings are modeled estimates of expected annual loss, not predictions of what will happen in any given year.
Data-matched county comparisons
Toole County's closest FEMA peer: Jefferson County, IA
Comparisons use published FEMA declaration fields plus the National Risk Index composite for Toole County. Record similarity, not a safety rating.
Closest declaration profiles
Toole County shows 12 FEMA declarations, led by Severe Storm.
Similar Major-disaster share
Toole County: 10 of 12 of its declarations are Major.
Similar modeled NRI score
Toole County: NRI composite 13.0 (Very Low).
How these peers are chosen
Cohort: Published U.S. county equivalents outside the source state or territory. Each metric keeps six ETL candidates; three unique destinations are shown after de-duplicating across axes. Declaration-volume ranking combines count and Major-disaster share and prefers a different leading incident type; Major-share ranks the Major fraction adjusted for volume; NRI ranks the modeled composite score only.
Retained FEMA snapshot feed for Toole County - capture-dated entries only.
Compare beyond this state
Nationwide peers by NRI score & FEMA declaration volume
Two PlainHazard-derived comparison paths for Toole County: nearest out-of-state National Risk Index composite and nearest FEMA declaration count (floor ≥5 records). Record similarity only, not a forecast of the next hazard.
Similar NRI composite
Nearest out-of-state counties by FEMA NRI score. This county: 13.0 (Very Low).
Similar declaration volume
Nearest out-of-state counties by FEMA declaration count. This county: 12. NRI peers are excluded so the two link sets stay distinct.
Further reading for this county
Most disaster-prone counties
With 12 FEMA declarations, Toole County sits in the high-volume declaration band - see how that count ranks against other U.S. counties.
More PlainHazard guides
- Most disaster-prone counties - U.S. counties ranked by FEMA declaration totals.
- Understanding disaster data - declarations vs storm events vs NRI scores.
- Preparing for natural disasters - household checklist (not county-specific advice).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most common disaster type in Toole County?
The most common disaster type in Toole County is Severe Storm, with 5 declarations. Other disaster types include Flood (3), Biological (2), Hurricane (1).
How does Toole County's FEMA declaration record compare with the Montana average?
FEMA lists 12 declaration records for Toole County. That is 9% above the Montana county mean of 11.0. Its count is also 42% below the national county mean of 20.7. A larger declaration history records more federal actions; it is not a forecast of the county's next hazard.
How many major FEMA disaster declarations has Toole County received?
Toole County has received 10 major disaster declarations, representing 83% of all 12 disaster declarations.
How many flood insurance claims has Toole County filed?
Toole County has 1 National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims totaling $416 in payments, with an average of $416 per claim.
What was the worst year for disasters in Toole County?
The most active year for disaster declarations in Toole County was 2020, with 2 declarations. The county has FEMA disaster data spanning 1975 to 2024.
What is the FEMA National Risk Index score for Toole County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, Toole County, Montana has an overall risk score of 13.0 out of 100 (Very Low). The county's social vulnerability rating is Relatively High and community resilience is Very Low. The Expected Annual Loss (EAL) score is Very Low, representing $4.5M in annualized losses.
Which natural hazard poses the greatest risk to Toole County?
Based on FEMA NRI data, the highest-risk natural hazard in Toole County is Cold Wave (risk rating: Relatively Moderate). Other significant hazards include Wildfire (Very Low) and Winter Weather (Relatively Low). FEMA's modeled event frequency puts cold wave here at an average of 11 times per year, drawn from 200 historical events on record. These scores are based on FEMA's analysis of historical event frequency, exposed assets, and community vulnerability.
Data Sources & Methodology
Disaster declaration data comes from the FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 API, which includes all federally declared disasters, emergencies, and fire management assistance grants.
Storm event data is sourced from the NOAA Storm Events Database (2015-2025), which tracks significant weather events including thunderstorms, tornadoes, floods, and winter storms.
Flood insurance data comes from the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA claims dataset.
This data is provided for informational purposes only. FEMA disaster declarations represent federal response actions and may not capture all local emergencies or weather events.
FEMA OpenFEMA declarations + NRI for Toole County · vintage 2026-08-25 · Methodology · Montana profile · Verify with FEMA OpenFEMA · Verify with NOAA Storm Events