PlainHazard

Are natural disasters increasing?

NOAA Storm Events 1996-2025, SPC tornadoes 1950-2025, FEMA declarations

In the part of NOAA's record that is comparable, storm records rose from 492,800 in 1996-2005 to 626,248 in 2016-2025 and recorded deaths from 6,412 to 9,852. Damage did not climb in step: $301.4B, $191.1B, then $272.4B in 2025 dollars. Part of the change is in how events are reported: heat deaths filed in Arizona went from 51 to 2,678, and the tornado count doubled with weak tornadoes while EF1-and-stronger tornadoes stayed between 462 and 664 a year in every decade since the 1960s.

By  · Updated  · How this was measured

The record in three ten-year periods

Storm records, deaths and damage per period, by hazard (sorted by deaths in 2016-2025)
HazardDeaths 1996-2005Deaths 2006-2015Deaths 2016-2025Records 1996-2005Records 2016-2025
Heat1,4841,2253,96410,23932,760
Floods8099921,22753,40771,813
Rip currents and high surf3955967943,2764,650
Winter storms4721,19376482,50894,402
Tornadoes5811,13152713,85415,169
Hurricanes and tropical storms1,1381024844,6324,231
Extreme cold22834843712,81919,574
Severe thunderstorm wind236333377116,447180,798
Wildfires421243642,2363,488
High wind and dust storms25939731034,47751,480
Lightning4473482138,4953,004
Landslides and avalanches1652332005361,863
Hail579119,09287,696
Drought00014,56932,686
All hazards6,4127,2569,852492,800626,248

Heat deaths are the largest change: 1,484 in 1996-2005 and 3,964 in 2016-2025. Arizona alone filed 2,678 of the later figure, against 51 in the first period. A change that large in one state reflects how heat deaths are counted and filed there as well as the heat itself, so the national total should not be read as a measure of hotter weather alone.

Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, 1996-2025, deaths direct and indirect as filed. Search the record at NCEI.

Tornadoes: more counted, not more strong ones

  1. 1950s, all 479
  2. 1950s, EF1+ 374
  3. 1960s, all 681
  4. 1960s, EF1+ 499
  5. 1970s, all 858
  6. 1970s, EF1+ 613
  7. 1980s, all 820
  8. 1980s, EF1+ 489
  9. 1990s, all 1,214
  10. 1990s, EF1+ 477
  11. 2000s, all 1,278
  12. 2000s, EF1+ 462
  13. 2010s, all 1,207
  14. 2010s, EF1+ 546
  15. 2020s, all (6 years) 1,349
  16. 2020s, EF1+ 664

The Storm Prediction Center counted 681 tornadoes a year in the 1960s and 1,349 in the 2020s so far, but EF1-and-stronger tornadoes stayed between 462 and 664 a year in every decade from the 1960s on. In the 1950s, the database's first decade, it counted 479 a year. The added tornadoes are almost all rated F0 or EF0, the weakest rating. The Storm Prediction Center notes that tornado reports rose especially around the installation of the NEXRAD Doppler radar system in the mid-1990s, and that strong to violent tornadoes are the better-documented, more stable record.

Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database, 1950-2025, one row per tornado.

Federal major disaster declarations by decade

  1. 1960s 18
  2. 1970s 33
  3. 1980s 24
  4. 1990s 46
  5. 2000s 56
  6. 2010s 60
  7. 2020s (6 years) 71

Major disaster declarations rose from 18 a year in the 1960s to 60 in the 2010s. A declaration is a federal decision on a state's request, so its count follows policy and population as well as storms.

Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (v2), through 2026-10-02. OpenFEMA dataset page.

How this was measured

Storm Events is compared only from 1996, the first year NOAA recorded every event type, in three ten-year periods. Tornado counts come from the Storm Prediction Center database, one row per tornado. Declarations are FEMA major disaster declarations (DR), counted once per disaster number, by the year declared. Damage is in 2025 dollars (BLS CPI-U).

Sources

NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database; NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database (1950-2025); FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (v2), through 2026-10-02.

Limits

A rise in the record is not by itself a rise in the weather. The record also changes when reporting improves (the Storm Prediction Center notes tornado reports rose around the installation of NEXRAD Doppler radar in the mid-1990s), when more people and buildings stand in harm's way, when damage is valued differently, and when declaration policy changes. This page measures the record; it does not attribute any change to climate.

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