Is Tornado Alley moving east?
NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database, state segments rated F1/EF1 or stronger, 1950-2025
In the record, yes. The Plains' share of U.S. tornadoes rated F1/EF1 or stronger fell from 41.2% in the 1950s to 20.4% in the 2020s, while the Southeast's rose from 18.4% to 32.8%, overtaking the Plains in the 2000s. The Plains here are Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska and the Dakotas; the Southeast is Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee and Georgia.
By PlainHazard Editorial · Updated · How this was measured
Each region's share, by decade
Plains
Southeast
| Decade | Plains | Southeast | Midwest | Everywhere else | U.S. total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1950s | 41.2% (1,559) | 18.4% (694) | 24.9% (941) | 15.5% (588) | 3,782 |
| 1960s | 36.4% (1,835) | 16.4% (828) | 29.3% (1,477) | 17.8% (898) | 5,038 |
| 1970s | 32.7% (2,021) | 21.1% (1,305) | 25.4% (1,570) | 20.8% (1,288) | 6,184 |
| 1980s | 28.7% (1,422) | 22.5% (1,111) | 24.3% (1,204) | 24.5% (1,211) | 4,948 |
| 1990s | 30.9% (1,493) | 20.5% (990) | 25.2% (1,216) | 23.3% (1,126) | 4,825 |
| 2000s | 25.5% (1,199) | 29.9% (1,405) | 27.7% (1,300) | 16.9% (792) | 4,696 |
| 2010s | 23.0% (1,280) | 31.6% (1,763) | 30.1% (1,679) | 15.3% (853) | 5,575 |
| 2020s* | 20.4% (831) | 32.8% (1,336) | 30.9% (1,257) | 15.9% (648) | 4,072 |
* 2020 to 2025.
Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database, state segments. SPC severe weather database.
How this was measured
Every tornado segment the SPC records in a state, rated F1/EF1 or stronger (the weakest, F0/EF0, are left out: the Storm Prediction Center notes that reports rose around the installation of NEXRAD Doppler radar in the mid-1990s and that stronger tornadoes are the better-documented, more stable record), counted by the decade it occurred and grouped into four regions: the Plains (Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota), the Southeast (Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee, Georgia), the Midwest (Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota) and everywhere else. The measure is each region's share of the decade's national count, so changes in total reporting cancel out.
Sources
NOAA Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database (state segments), 1950-2025.
Limits
Region lines are drawn by state, so a shift inside a state (west Texas against east Texas) does not show. Ratings depend on what a tornado damaged, and the Southeast has more trees and buildings than the open Plains, which can raise its ratings. The 2020s cover six years. This is a measurement of where rated tornadoes were recorded, not a forecast.