Bay County, Michigan
County storm and disaster record · FIPS 26017 · population 103,848 · 442 sq mi
NOAA's Storm Events Database holds 436 records for Bay County, Michigan from 1950 through June 30, 2026, on 289 days; the most frequent are severe thunderstorm wind events (164 records). The deadliest single record is the December 1, 2007 winter weather, filed for the forecast zone Bay, which covers the county: 1 death. FEMA has issued 14 declarations naming the county since 1965, 12 of them for natural hazards; the latest for a natural hazard was “Severe Storms and Flooding” on August 2, 2017.
The record, 1950 to 2026
Storm records filed for the county each year (2026 to June 30, 2026). Before 1996 NOAA recorded only tornadoes (from 1950), thunderstorm wind and hail (from 1955).
- recorded, no damage figure
- under $100,000
- $100,000 or more
- $1 million or more
- $10 million or more, or a death
- $100 million or more, or 10 deaths
- a year's colour: its recorded damage or deaths
- a year with a death
- 1955: wind and hail recorded from 1955
- 1996: all 48 event types from 1996
- Storm records
- 436on 289 days, 1950 to June 30, 2026
- Deaths recorded
- 522 injuries
- Damage, 2025 dollars
- $77Mas filed (scale steps before 1993)
- Tornadoes
- 14strongest F3
- FEMA declarations
- 14latest 2020
Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, records through June 30, 2026 (file revision 20260918); damage converted to 2025 dollars with the BLS CPI-U. Search the record at NCEI. BLS consumer price index.
What hazards hit Bay County most?
The most frequent records are severe thunderstorm wind events: 164 since 1960. 49% of its severe thunderstorm wind events since 1960 fell in June and July. The rank column places the county among Michigan's counties by days with a record per 1,000 square miles of land over each hazard's complete period.
| Hazard | Records | Days | First, last | Killed | Injured | Damage | Rank in state |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Severe thunderstorm wind | 164 | 110 | 1960-2026 | 1 | 5 | $6.0M | 17 of 83 |
| Hail | 99 | 41 | 1962-2026 | 0 | 2 | $25M | 18 of 83 |
| Winter storms | 67 | 65 | 1997-2025 | 1 | 0 | $2.5M | 40 of 83 |
| High wind and dust storms | 34 | 34 | 1996-2022 | 0 | 0 | $15M | 3 of 83 |
| Floods | 21 | 20 | 1996-2021 | 1 | 0 | $17M | 6 of 83 |
| Extreme cold | 15 | 15 | 1996-2019 | 2 | 10 | $1.7M | 12 of 83 |
| Tornadoes | 14 | 13 | 1957-2016 | 0 | 4 | $10M | 26 of 83 |
| Heat | 13 | 13 | 1999-2018 | 0 | 1 | – | 2 of 83 |
| Lightning | 5 | 4 | 2005-2006 | 0 | 0 | $95K | 15 of 83 |
| Drought | 2 | 2 | 2001-2002 | 0 | 0 | – | 2 of 83 |
| Heavy rain | 1 | 1 | 2006-2006 | 0 | 0 | $51K | 15 of 83 |
| Fog, smoke and funnel clouds | 1 | 1 | 2000-2000 | 0 | 0 | – | 33 of 83 |
Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database (county and forecast-zone records attributed to the county; a zone record shows its own totals on each county it covers). Days: dates with at least one record of the hazard in the county. Ranks: days with a record per 1,000 square miles of land (Census Bureau 2024 Gazetteer), since 1950 for tornadoes, 1955 for hail and thunderstorm wind, 1996 for the rest.
How many tornadoes has Bay County had?
NOAA records 14 tornadoes in Bay County from 1957 to 2016, the strongest rated F3, with 0 deaths and 4 injuries recorded in the county. That is 26th of 83 Michigan counties by days with tornadoes per 1,000 square miles since 1950. A tornado that crossed a county line is counted in each county it touched, with the length of its path inside the county.
Counted as whole tornadoes rather than county records, the Storm Prediction Center's database holds 15 tornadoes whose track touched Bay County since 1950 (NOAA's county records number 14: they file a crossing tornado once per county segment, and the two databases differ on some tracks); along their whole tracks they killed 0 people.
| Date | Tornado | Rating | Path | Killed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1984-06-12 17:20, as SPC files it | Bay | F3 | 48 mi | 0 |
Map of the strongest tornado tracks in Michigan.
Every tornado record filed for Bay County (14)
| Date | Place | Character | Killed | Injured | Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-07-08 | Pinconning, Bay County | EF0 2 mi x 100 yd | 0 | 0 | $12K |
| 2011-05-31 | Beaver, Bay County | EF1 8.38 mi x 200 yd | 0 | 0 | $131K |
| 2004-06-13 | Auburn, Bay County | F0 3 mi x 100 yd | 0 | 0 | $16K |
| 2003-08-04 | Bay City, Bay County | F0 0.2 mi x 25 yd | 0 | 0 | – |
| 2001-10-24 | Bay City, Bay County | F1 0.5 mi x 100 yd | 0 | 0 | $100K |
| 1984-06-12 | Bay County | F3 10 mi x 500 yd | 0 | 2 | $2.5M step |
| 1982-07-17 | Bay County | F0 0.1 mi x 17 yd | 0 | 0 | $3K step |
| 1979-06-20 | Bay County | F0 0.8 mi x 27 yd | 0 | 0 | $25K step |
| 1974-07-14 | Bay County | F1 | 0 | 0 | – |
| 1973-07-31 | Bay County | F2 2.3 mi x 20 yd | 0 | 0 | $25K step |
| 1973-06-26 | Bay County | F0 | 0 | 0 | – |
| 1973-06-26 | Bay County | F0 | 0 | 0 | – |
| 1965-04-11 | Bay County | F2 9.9 mi x 33 yd | 0 | 2 | $250K step |
| 1957-06-22 | Bay County | F2 | 0 | 0 | $25K step |
A damage figure marked "step" is a record from before 1993: NOAA then filed damage by category, and the figure is the category as entered, in the dollars of that year, not an estimate of the loss.
Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, tornado records by county (path length in the county, maximum width); ratings as published: F scale before February 1, 2007, EF scale after. Whole-track figures: NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database (1950-2025). SPC severe weather database.
When was the last damaging storm in Bay County?
The most recent record with damage, injuries or deaths is the May 18, 2020 lakeshore flood ($2.3 million in damage in 2025 dollars).
The water level at Essexville peaked at 70.60 above LWD at 1542 LST.
National Weather Service event narrative, NOAA Storm Events Database (search the full record, event 884038)
| Date | Record | Character | Killed | Injured | Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | HailPinconning, Bay County | 1.00 in hail | 0 | 0 | – |
| 2026-06-10 | Thunderstorm WindFisherville, Bay County | 61 kt wind | 0 | 0 | – |
| 2026-06-10 | Thunderstorm WindBay City Municipal Airport, Bay County | 61 kt wind | 0 | 0 | – |
| 2026-05-18 | Thunderstorm WindEssexville, Bay County | 50 kt wind | 0 | 0 | – |
| 2026-05-17 | HailBay City Municipal Airport, Bay County | 1.00 in hail | 0 | 0 | – |
| 2025-11-29 | Heavy SnowBay County · forecast zone Bay | 0 | 0 | – | |
| 2025-08-12 | Thunderstorm WindWillard, Bay County | 56 kt wind | 0 | 0 | – |
| 2025-07-28 | Thunderstorm WindTobico, Bay County | 57 kt wind | 0 | 0 | – |
| 2025-07-28 | Thunderstorm WindLinwood, Bay County | 56 kt wind | 0 | 0 | – |
| 2025-07-24 | Thunderstorm WindPinconning, Bay County | 54 kt wind | 0 | 0 | – |
| 2025-05-15 | Thunderstorm WindBay City Municipal Airport, Bay County | 52 kt wind | 0 | 0 | – |
| 2020-05-18 | Lakeshore FloodBay County · forecast zone Bay | 0 | 0 | $2.3M |
Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database; every record of 2025-2026 is listed, earlier ones when they caused deaths, injuries or $250,000 of damage (2025 dollars), and every tornado.
The deadliest and costliest records
| Date | Record | Character | Killed | Injured | Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007-12-01 | Winter WeatherBay County · forecast zone Bay Trained spotters reported 3 to 4 inches of snow and one to two tenths of an inch of ice on top of the snow. | 1 | 0 | – | |
| 1998-05-31 | Thunderstorm WindLinwood, Bay County On the evening of the 30th, a strong low pressure system was located over the upper Mississippi Valley. The low moved rapidly east that night, reaching northern lower Michigan by daybreak on the 31st. The warm front associated with the low moved north across the Lower Peninsula overnight, ushering in an unstable air ... | 1 | 0 | $181K | |
| 1998-03-09 | Cold/Wind ChillBay County · forecast zone Bay A Kawkawlin man passed out while walking home from a local tavern. A steady, cold rain was falling, and the man died from hypothermia. Alcohol was likely a contributing factor. | 1 | 0 | – | |
| 1997-01-17 | Cold/Wind ChillBay County · forecast zone Bay The coldest weather of the winter occurred from the 17th through the 19th. During that period, lows reached as low as -6 at Detroit's metro airport, and -9 at Flint's Bishop airport and the National Weather Service forecast office at White Lake. One man died of hypothermia in Bay City. A few days earlier, on the 12th, ... | 1 | 0 | – | |
| 1996-06-21 | Flash FloodSrn 1/2 Of Co., Bay County | 1 | 0 | $4.1M | |
| 2007-02-03 | Cold/Wind ChillBay County · forecast zone Bay A bitter cold airmass blasted into the region on Saturday, February the 3rd and persisted through Tuesday, February the 6th. Temperatures through this period were 20 to 25 degrees below normal. Daytime temps struggled to reach 10 degrees while subzero temperatures occurred all 3 nights. Flint set 2 temperature records ... | 0 | 10 | $36K | |
| 1992-06-17 | Thunderstorm WindBay County | 0 | 5 | – | |
| 1999-07-24 | HailBay City, Bay County An upper level disturbance crossed the Great Lakes region from northwest to southeast, igniting thunderstorms along its path. The thunderstorms evolved into a squall line as they moved across southeast Michigan. Instability was high on this warm and humid summer day, allowing many of the storms to become severe.Unlike ... | 1.75 in hail | 0 | 2 | – |
| Date | Record | Character | Killed | Injured | Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1996-06-21 | Flash FloodSrn 1/2 Of Co., Bay County | 1 | 0 | $4.1M | |
| 2014-07-27 | HailBangor Township, Bay County | 2.50 in hail | 0 | 0 | $3.7M |
| 2017-06-22 | Flash FloodMt Forest, Bay County | 0 | 0 | $3.6M | |
| 2014-07-27 | HailKawkawlin, Bay County | 2.00 in hail | 0 | 0 | $2.5M |
| 2018-04-14 | Winter StormBay County · forecast zone Bay | 0 | 0 | $2.4M | |
| 2018-04-15 | Lakeshore FloodBay County · forecast zone Bay | 0 | 0 | $2.4M | |
| 2019-11-01 | FloodAplin Beach, Bay County | 0 | 0 | $2.3M | |
| 2020-05-18 | Lakeshore FloodBay County · forecast zone Bay | 0 | 0 | $2.3M |
Before 1993 NOAA filed damage by category, not amount, so the list above starts in 1993. The highest category filed here before then (entered as $2.5M, in the dollars of the day) holds: June 12, 1984 (tornado, Bay County).
Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database: deaths and injuries direct and indirect; damage is property plus crops as estimated by the National Weather Service, converted to 2025 dollars.
Is it getting more frequent?
Records per decade for Bay County's most frequent hazards. Counts rose everywhere after 1996, when NOAA began recording every event type, so compare decades within a hazard's complete period only (the shaded cells come before it).
| Hazard | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020-26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Severe thunderstorm wind | 0 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 28 | 48 | 36 | 32 |
| Hail | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 15 | 68 | 4 |
| Winter storms | – | – | – | – | 8 | 37 | 15 | 7 |
| High wind and dust storms | – | – | – | – | 8 | 9 | 10 | 7 |
| Floods | – | – | – | – | 3 | 4 | 9 | 5 |
| Extreme cold | – | – | – | – | 3 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, records per calendar decade; zone records from the CZ_TYPE field (Z).
What time of year?
49% of its severe thunderstorm wind events since 1960 fell in June and July. The two busiest months are in violet.
The values, month by month
Jan 28 · Feb 25 · Mar 26 · Apr 27 · May 42 · Jun 71 · Jul 104 · Aug 46 · Sep 19 · Oct 15 · Nov 12 · Dec 21 (records).
Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, records by the month they began.
Federal disaster declarations for Bay County
FEMA's register lists 14 declarations that include Bay County: 10 major disasters, 4 emergencies and 0 fire management assistance declarations. Most were for severe storm (4) and flood (4).
| Declared | Number | Type | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-03-27 | DR-4494 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020-03-13 | EM-3455 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2017-08-02 | DR-4326 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| 2005-09-07 | EM-3225 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| 2001-01-10 | EM-3160 | Snowstorm | Snow |
| 1998-06-24 | DR-1226 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms |
| 1996-07-23 | DR-1128 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| 1986-09-18 | DR-774 | Flood | Severe Storms & Flooding |
| 1985-09-18 | DR-744 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| 1978-01-27 | EM-3057 | Snowstorm | Blizzards & Snowstorms |
| 1976-03-19 | DR-495 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Icing & Flooding |
| 1973-04-12 | DR-371 | Flood | Severe Storms & Flooding |
| 1972-12-01 | DR-363 | Flood | Severe Storms & Flooding |
| 1965-04-14 | DR-190 | Tornado | Tornadoes & Severe Storms |
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (v2), declarations through October 2, 2026; one declaration is counted once however many areas it names. OpenFEMA dataset page.
How many floods has Bay County had?
NOAA's Storm Events Database holds 21 flood or flash flood records for Bay County from 1996 to 2021, on 20 days, with 1 death. By flood insurance claims since 1978 (OpenFEMA, as of September 8, 2026), Bay County ranks 490th of 2,942 U.S. counties.
The National Flood Insurance Program has paid $2.5 million on 515 claims filed in Bay County; the most in one year was 205 in 1986. Claims count insured losses only: uninsured flood damage is not in this file.
The values, year by year
1979: 5 · 1980: 1 · 1981: 6 · 1983: 123 · 1984: 8 · 1985: 5 · 1986: 205 · 1987: 4 · 1991: 1 · 1993: 1 · 1994: 6 · 1996: 28 · 1997: 6 · 1998: 4 · 2001: 1 · 2002: 3 · 2003: 1 · 2004: 2 · 2005: 1 · 2008: 1 · 2009: 1 · 2011: 1 · 2012: 2 · 2013: 5 · 2014: 8 · 2016: 2 · 2017: 36 · 2018: 15 · 2019: 4 · 2020: 20 · 2021: 8 · 2023: 1; the other years: 0.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA NFIP Redacted Claims, as of September 8, 2026; claims by year of loss, payments in the dollars of the year paid. OpenFEMA dataset page.
FEMA's modeled risk for Bay County
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Bay County Relatively Low overall, with an expected annual loss of $38.3 million. These are FEMA's model estimates of future loss from 18 hazards, not a count of what happened; they can differ from the record above.
| Hazard | Risk rating | Expected annual loss | Modeled frequency |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winter Weather | Relatively High | $626K | 11 a year (modeled) |
| Strong Wind | Relatively High | $2.8M | 3.2 a year (modeled) |
| Cold Wave | Relatively High | $6.9M | 2.9 a year (modeled) |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | $4.9M | once in about 5 years (modeled) |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | $1.1M | 2 a year (modeled) |
| Riverine Flooding | Relatively Moderate | $21M | about once a year (modeled) |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Moderate | $148K | about once a year (modeled) |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | $297K | 31 a year (modeled) |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, county table, December 2025 release. FEMA's National Risk Index map.
Counties that share a border with Bay County
Source: U.S. Census Bureau county adjacency file; NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, records since 1950. The Census Bureau's adjacency file.
Next
- Tornadoes in MichiganEvery Michigan tornado since 1950 and the counties with the most per square mile
- Severe thunderstorm wind in MichiganThe state's severe thunderstorm wind events, by county, year and month
- The Michigan recordEvery hazard in the state, its deadliest events and its federal declarations
- FEMA's risk rating for each hazard in Bay CountyThe hazard risk calculator: 18 hazards beside the county's record
- Download Bay County's FEMA declarations (CSV)14 rows: every declaration that named the county, for your own analysis