FEMA Records
14
Low volume
Michigan · FEMA + NOAA + National Risk Index
Bay County, MI
14 FEMA disaster declarations (1965-2020), with a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Low. Most common hazard: Severe Storm.
- 14
- FEMA declarations
- 10
- Major disasters
- 78
- NRI risk · Relatively Low
- Severe Storm
- Top hazard
The verdict
Two federal records point in the busier direction for Bay County. Its 14 FEMA declarations are 40% above the Michigan county mean and exceed the count for 20% of the 3,266 counties in this registry. Separately, FEMA's National Risk Index places it in the riskiest 22%, based on modeled expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience.
- Riskiest 22%
- of U.S. counties for FEMA National Risk Index score
- Relatively Low
- FEMA National Risk Index rating
- 14
- FEMA declarations vs 21 national county avg
- 515
- NFIP flood insurance claims filed
FEMA's National Risk Index and its declaration registry are separate measures. This county's registry includes Major Disaster (DR) and Emergency (EM) records; an EM authorizes a narrower set of federal assistance than a DR.
How does Bay County compare?
Bay County vs. all counties in this dataset
FEMA disaster declarations, all-time
14 20th percentile higher than 20% of 3,266 counties
Each bar is a band; taller bars hold more counties. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count, share, and where it sits relative to this entry.
Source FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 · 2026-08-03
Bay County's FEMA Risk Index score
FEMA National Risk Index composite score vs. the Michigan county average
Which hazard drives modeled loss here?
FEMA's modeled annual dollar loss for Bay County is led by Riverine Flooding (about $20.9M Expected Annual Loss, Historical Loss Ratio Relatively Low), while Winter Weather carries the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively High). EAL and risk score use different inputs; they need not agree.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025 release) - Expected Annual Loss vs composite risk rating by hazard.
What does Bay County's hazard record show?
Reading the federal records together
FEMA's NFIP table contains a substantial paid-claim history for this county: 515 claims and $2.5M in payments. PlainHazard labels 500 or more claims a heavy registry record; that is a reporting bucket, not an official FEMA risk grade. The average paid claim was $4.8K. NFIP totals exclude uninsured flood losses and do not measure how many properties currently carry a policy.
The declaration register points in the busier direction. Bay County's 14 federal records stand 40% above the Michigan county mean of 10.0. That comparison describes how often federal action was recorded, including any Major Disaster, Emergency, and Fire Management entries shown on this page; it does not convert the count into future probability.
FEMA National Risk Index
This county sits among the highest-risk counties nationally on FEMA's National Risk Index, a composite score of 78.2/100 (Relatively Low). Expected Annual Loss is rated Relatively Low (roughly $38.3M in annualized losses). Social vulnerability reads Relatively Moderate and community resilience Very High, both critical modifiers of realized harm here. Of the 18 hazards FEMA models, Winter Weather stands out as the sharpest exposure here, rated Relatively High. FEMA's modeled frequency puts that hazard at an average of 11 times per year here, based on 206 historical events on record.
Declaration frequency
The FEMA register is busy by both local and national comparisons. It contains 14 entries for Bay County, including 10 Major Disaster records, 40% above the Michigan county mean. Across the 55-year span, that works out to 0.3 declarations a year. Severe Storm leads the file with 4 entries. Declaration type records the federal action taken, not every assistance program approved.
61 /100
Historical Activity Index
High historical activity
Bay County, MI · PlainHazard-derived composite from federal records
This 0–100 index is an explicit PlainHazard composite from FEMA declaration history only on the county surface (this DB has no county-level NOAA damage row) . It is not FEMA's National Risk Index, not a forecast, and not a safety, insurance, or preparedness rating. Open the calculator · Methodology
FEMA Declarations (1953–present) Moderate
10/30
14 OpenFEMA declarations, full ingest window (0.7x national county average)
County Disaster Density High
18/25
14 declarations (1.4x state county average of 10)
Major Disaster Share High
18/25
10 of 14 declarations are major disasters (71%)
Hazard Diversity Very High
15/20
6 different disaster types declared in Bay County
Historical Declaration Activity
Activity Band
High
vs. Michigan Avg
+40%
State avg: 10.0
vs. National Avg
-32%
National avg: 20.7
Avg Per Year
0.3
Over 55 years
FEMA NRI 8-hazard radar - Bay County
How to read this radar
Each axis: NRI risk rating (Very Low-Very High) on a 0-100 scale. Rounder = broad exposure; spiky = one or two hazards dominate.
Major Disaster share
71%
Major-heavy
NRI risk score
78
Relatively Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Per-county per-hazard ratings, December 2025 release
How often does each hazard strike Bay County?
FEMA's National Risk Index models a historical event count and an annualized frequency for each hazard type. Most hazards are expressed as modeled occurrences per year; FEMA expresses drought and heat-wave frequency as event-days per year. These modeled frequencies are not forecasts.
| Hazard | NRI Risk Rating | Recurrence |
|---|---|---|
| Winter Weather | Relatively High | an average of 11 times per year |
| Strong Wind | Relatively High | an average of 3.2 times per year |
| Cold Wave | Relatively High | an average of 2.9 times per year |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | roughly once every 5 years |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | an average of 2 times per year |
| Riverine Flooding | Relatively Moderate | roughly once every 1 years |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Moderate | roughly once every 1 years |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | an average of 31 times per year |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 2.2 modeled event-days per year |
| Coastal Flooding | Relatively Low | roughly once every 71 years |
| Earthquake | Very Low | roughly once every 1,953 years |
| Hurricane | Very Low | roughly once every 53 years |
| Landslide | Very Low | roughly once every 20 years |
| Wildfire | Very Low | roughly once every 7,931 years |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Modeled annualized frequency; drought and heat wave use event-days/year, December 2025 release
Disaster Types
Severe Storm 4
Flood 4
Biological 2
Snowstorm 2
Hurricane 1
Tornado 1
What Severe Storm declarations mean here
Severe Storm is the most frequent declaration type on Bay County's record, 29% of its declarations. In FEMA's vocabulary this covers convective weather: thunderstorm straight-line winds, large hail, and the multi-day outbreaks that often carry embedded tornadoes. Activity is heaviest in spring and summer, though the season varies by region.
These events behave differently from a hurricane on paper. Damage tends to be distributed along a storm track rather than concentrated on a coastline, and a declaration typically follows an outbreak that crossed several counties over a few days, not a single point of impact. Because the qualifying threshold is the cost of uninsured public and individual losses rather than storm intensity, two similar storms can produce a declaration in one year and none in another.
Declaration counts describe past federal action. They are a record of what was declared, not a forecast of future hazard probability.
Declaration Types
What DR / EM / FM mean
FEMA categorizes declarations as Major Disasters (DR), Emergencies (EM), or Fire Management Assistance (FM).
Major Disaster - 10 71.4%
of all 14 declarations
Emergency - 4 28.6%
of all 14 declarations
FEMA Declarations Timeline
| Year | Declarations | |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2 | |
| 2017 | 1 | |
| 2005 | 1 | |
| 2001 | 1 | |
| 1998 | 1 | |
| 1996 | 1 | |
| 1986 | 1 | |
| 1985 | 1 | |
| 1978 | 1 | |
| 1976 | 1 | |
| 1973 | 2 | |
| 1965 | 1 | |
Disaster Declarations
How the 14 FEMA declarations break into federal action codes (DR / EM / FM). Same DISTINCT grain as the table below.
Download these 14 declarations as CSV . FEMA source data is public domain; our derived presentation is CC0.
| DR# | Title | Type | Incident | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4494 | COVID-19 PANDEMIC | DR | Biological | 2020-03-27 |
| 3455 | COVID-19 | EM | Biological | 2020-03-13 |
| 4326 | SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2017-08-02 |
| 3225 | HURRICANE KATRINA EVACUATION | EM | Hurricane | 2005-09-07 |
| 3160 | SNOW | EM | Snowstorm | 2001-01-10 |
| 1226 | SEVERE STORMS | DR | Severe Storm | 1998-06-24 |
| 1128 | SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 1996-07-23 |
| 774 | SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1986-09-18 |
| 744 | SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1985-09-18 |
| 3057 | BLIZZARDS & SNOWSTORMS | EM | Snowstorm | 1978-01-27 |
| 495 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, ICING & FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 1976-03-19 |
| 371 | SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1973-04-12 |
| 363 | SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1972-12-01 |
| 190 | TORNADOES & SEVERE STORMS | DR | Tornado | 1965-04-14 |
Storm Events in Michigan
Statewide NOAA context only. PlainHazard does not currently attribute these state totals to Bay County.
| Storm Type | Events | Fatalities | Injuries | Property Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunderstorm Wind | 3,010 | 10 | 18 | $173.8M |
| Winter Storm | 1,486 | 3 | 11 | $41.8M |
| Winter Weather | 1,254 | 21 | 38 | $892.0K |
| Hail | 962 | 0 | 0 | $77.1M |
| High Wind | 389 | 3 | 2 | $668.9M |
Source: NOAA Storm Events Database State-level aggregated data, 2015-2025
NFIP Flood Insurance Claims
Total Claims
515
Total Paid
$2.5M
Avg Per Claim
$4.8K
Source: FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA Claims Data
FEMA National Risk Index
Overall Risk
Relatively Low
Score: 78.2/100
Expected Annual Loss
Relatively Low
$38.3M/year
Social Vulnerability
Relatively Moderate
Community Resilience
Very High
Hazard Risk Breakdown
Winter Weather Relatively High
Strong Wind Relatively High
Cold Wave Relatively High
Tornado Relatively Moderate
Hail Relatively Moderate
Riverine Flooding Relatively Moderate
Ice Storm Relatively Moderate
Lightning Relatively Moderate
Heat Wave Relatively Low
Coastal Flooding Relatively Low
Earthquake Very Low
Hurricane Very Low
Landslide Very Low
Wildfire Very Low
Drought No Rating
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) Ratings reflect relative scores among all US counties. Data: hazards.fema.gov/nri
The model's sharpest exposure here: Winter Weather
Winter Weather in the model means the accumulation of snow and cold that disrupts rather than destroys: road closures, roof loads, burst pipes and lost heating. Its costs land heavily on transport and on households least able to absorb an interruption.
Worth noting for Bay County: the model and the federal record do NOT point at the same hazard. Winter Weather carries the highest modeled rating (Relatively High), while the county's declaration history is led by Severe Storm. That is not a contradiction, the two measure genuinely different things. Declarations record federal ACTION, which requires damage costly enough to exceed state and local capacity; the Risk Index models EXPECTED annual loss across all 18 hazards whether or not any declaration ever followed. A hazard can be the county's largest modeled exposure and never once have driven a declaration.
National Risk Index ratings are modeled estimates of expected annual loss, not predictions of what will happen in any given year.
Data-matched county comparisons
Bay County's closest FEMA peer: Merrimack County, NH
Comparisons use published FEMA declaration fields plus the National Risk Index composite for Bay County. Record similarity, not a safety rating.
Similar modeled NRI score
Bay County: NRI composite 78.2 (Relatively Low).
Similar Major-disaster share
Bay County: 10 of 14 of its declarations are Major.
Closest declaration profiles
Bay County shows 14 FEMA declarations, led by Severe Storm.
How these peers are chosen
Cohort: Published U.S. county equivalents outside the source state or territory. Each metric keeps six ETL candidates; three unique destinations are shown after de-duplicating across axes. Declaration-volume ranking combines count and Major-disaster share and prefers a different leading incident type; Major-share ranks the Major fraction adjusted for volume; NRI ranks the modeled composite score only.
Retained FEMA snapshot feed for Bay County - capture-dated entries only.
Further reading for this county
Understanding disaster data
Bay County's NFIP claims file (515 claims) and FEMA declaration history measure different federal records - this guide separates them from modeled NRI risk.
More PlainHazard guides
- Most disaster-prone counties - U.S. counties ranked by FEMA declaration totals.
- Understanding disaster data - declarations vs storm events vs NRI scores.
- Preparing for natural disasters - household checklist (not county-specific advice).
Related
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most common disaster type in Bay County?
The most common disaster type in Bay County is Severe Storm, with 4 declarations. Other disaster types include Flood (4), Biological (2), Snowstorm (2).
How does Bay County's FEMA declaration record compare with the Michigan average?
FEMA lists 14 declaration records for Bay County. That is 40% above the Michigan county mean of 10.0. Its count is also 32% below the national county mean of 20.7. A larger declaration history records more federal actions; it is not a forecast of the county's next hazard.
How many major FEMA disaster declarations has Bay County received?
Bay County has received 10 major disaster declarations, representing 71% of all 14 disaster declarations.
How many flood insurance claims has Bay County filed?
Bay County has 515 National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims totaling $2.5M in payments, with an average of $4.8K per claim.
Does FEMA's top risk-rated hazard match the highest Expected Annual Loss in Bay County?
No. In Bay County, Winter Weather has the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively High), while Riverine Flooding leads Expected Annual Loss at about $20.9M. FEMA's risk score and dollar-loss model use different inputs, so the leaders often differ.
What was the worst year for disasters in Bay County?
The most active year for disaster declarations in Bay County was 1973, with 2 declarations. The county has FEMA disaster data spanning 1965 to 2020.
What is the FEMA National Risk Index score for Bay County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, Bay County, Michigan has an overall risk score of 78.2 out of 100 (Relatively Low). Social vulnerability here rates Relatively Moderate, while community resilience comes in at Very High. The Expected Annual Loss (EAL) score is Relatively Low, representing $38.3M in annualized losses.
Which natural hazard poses the greatest risk to Bay County?
The top hazard flagged by FEMA's NRI for Bay County is Winter Weather (risk rating: Relatively High). Other significant hazards include Strong Wind (Relatively High) and Cold Wave (Relatively High). FEMA's modeled event frequency puts winter weather here at an average of 11 times per year, drawn from 206 historical events on record. FEMA derives these ratings from historical event frequency, the assets exposed, and the community's vulnerability profile.
Data Sources & Methodology
Disaster declaration data comes from the FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 API, which includes all federally declared disasters, emergencies, and fire management assistance grants.
Storm event data is sourced from the NOAA Storm Events Database (2015-2025), which tracks significant weather events including thunderstorms, tornadoes, floods, and winter storms.
Flood insurance data comes from the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA claims dataset.
This data is provided for informational purposes only. FEMA disaster declarations represent federal response actions and may not capture all local emergencies or weather events.
What this means for Bay County
Bay County, MI has 14 federal declaration records, 40% more than the Michigan county mean of 10; its history sits in PlainHazard's high activity band.
- Within this above-state-average declaration file, major disaster leads with 10 of 14 records; the category describes past federal action, not the next likely hazard. Michigan overview
- The state benchmark and national rank point the same way: this count tops the Michigan mean and the totals for 20% of 3,266 U.S. counties. Most-disaster rankings
- The large NFIP claims file and FEMA declaration history measure different federal records; the guide explains where they overlap and where they do not. Disaster-data guide
An above-average declaration count records past federal responses; it does not predict the next event. Current warnings come from the National Weather Service and local emergency officials.
PlainHazard derives this profile from FEMA's Disaster Declarations Summaries and National Risk Index data. The declaration comparison covers 3,266 U.S. counties and county equivalents in this database, refreshed as of 2026-08-03. Read our methodology - how this data is sourced, computed, and verified.
All federal data sources used on this page
- FEMA OpenFEMA, Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 - all federally-declared disasters for this county. fema.gov/openfema/disaster-declarations
- FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) - per-county per-hazard risk ratings and expected annual loss. hazards.fema.gov/nri
- NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database - state-level storm/severe-weather event records, 2015-2025. ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents
Data sourced from official public datasets. See our methodology for details. Retrieved and formatted by PlainHazard Editorial
Verify with FEMA → · Verify with FEMA NRI → · Verify with NOAA →
Every figure on PlainHazard is rendered directly from FEMA federal disaster data, no number is typed in by an editor. See our editorial standards & corrections policy, the methodology behind these numbers, or national statistics report, the data & editorial changelog, or report a data error.