FEMA Records
10
Low volume
Minnesota · FEMA + NOAA + National Risk Index
Carlton County, MN
10 FEMA disaster declarations (1972-2023), with a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Low. Most common hazard: Flood.
- 10
- FEMA declarations
- 7
- Major disasters
- 70
- NRI risk · Relatively Low
- Flood
- Top hazard
The verdict
Carlton County has a nationally busy FEMA history: 10 declarations, more than 10% of counties in this registry. But the state comparison tempers that reading: the total is 44% below the Minnesota county mean. FEMA's separate National Risk Index places the county in the riskiest 30%; that score models loss and vulnerability rather than counting declarations.
- Riskiest 30%
- of U.S. counties for FEMA National Risk Index score
- Relatively Low
- FEMA National Risk Index rating
- 10
- FEMA declarations vs 21 national county avg
- 19
- NFIP flood insurance claims filed
FEMA's National Risk Index and its declaration registry are separate measures. This county's registry includes Major Disaster (DR) and Emergency (EM) records; an EM authorizes a narrower set of federal assistance than a DR.
FEMA OpenFEMA declaration desk
County FIPS 27017 · Carlton County 10 declarations · rank 2915/3,266
DECL-MID · MAJOR-MID · RANK-LOWER · PHOTO-FINISH · NRI-LOW · ACT-HIGH · TYPE-LEAD · VS-ST-BELOW
- DECL-MID 10
- MAJOR-MID 70%
- RANK-LOWER #2,915
- PHOTO-FINISH Cheyenne
- NRI-LOW 70
- ACT-HIGH High
- TYPE-LEAD Flood
- VS-ST-BELOW -44%
Nearest declaration peer: Cheyenne, NE (0 declaration gap)
FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 filing stamps for this county register. Read with this county → · Minnesota state profile
Carlton County among counties with fewer federal records
FEMA declaration records among Carlton County and nearest peers by total count
- Los Angeles · largest
Los Angeles · largest
88 declarations
- Carlton · this county 10
Carlton · this county
10 declarations
- Cheyenne · near 10
Cheyenne · near
10 declarations
- Clinton · near 10
Clinton · near
10 declarations
- Golden Valley · near 10
Golden Valley · near
10 declarations
- Ujelang · smallest 1
Ujelang · smallest
1 declarations
What this shows Carlton County carries 10 FEMA declaration records, ranked 2915 of 3,266 counties in this registry.
Carlton County versus quieter counties in this dataset
Carlton County among lower-declaration counties nationally
FEMA disaster declarations, all-time · Carlton County
10 10th percentile higher than 10% of 3,266 counties
Each bar is a band; taller bars hold more counties. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count, share, and where it sits relative to this entry.
Source FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 · 2026-08-25
Carlton County's FEMA Risk Index score
What does Carlton County's hazard record show?
FEMA National Risk Index
This county carries a high composite score on FEMA's National Risk Index, 70.1/100, rated Relatively Low. Its Expected Annual Loss rating is Relatively Low (roughly $31.7M in annualized losses), and a Relatively Low social-vulnerability profile combined with Very High community resilience shapes how much of that raw exposure becomes realized harm. Of the 18 hazards FEMA models, Cold Wave stands out as the sharpest exposure here, rated Relatively High. FEMA's modeled frequency puts that hazard at an average of 16 times per year here, based on 299 historical events on record.
Reading the federal records together
This county has a small entry in FEMA's NFIP paid-claims table: 19 claims and $627.2K paid in total. PlainHazard calls 1-49 claims a light registry record, a label for this dataset rather than a finding that flood exposure is low. A short claims history can also reflect insurance take-up, the period covered, or losses that were never insured.
Start with the state benchmark: a Minnesota county averages 17.7 federal declaration records, while Carlton County has 10. The gap is 44% below that mean. Fewer entries indicate a quieter history of recorded federal actions, not immunity from a hazard and not a prediction about what happens next.
45 /100
Historical Activity Index
Moderate historical activity
Carlton County, MN · PlainHazard-derived composite from federal records
This 0–100 index is an explicit PlainHazard composite from FEMA declaration history only on the county surface (this DB has no county-level NOAA damage row) . It is not FEMA's National Risk Index, not a forecast, and not a safety, insurance, or preparedness rating. Open the calculator · Methodology
FEMA Declarations (1953–present) Low
7/30
10 OpenFEMA declarations, full ingest window (0.5x national county average)
County Disaster Density Moderate
7/25
10 declarations (0.6x state county average of 18)
Major Disaster Share High
18/25
7 of 10 declarations are major disasters (70%)
Hazard Diversity High
13/20
5 different disaster types declared in Carlton County
FEMA NRI 8-hazard radar - Carlton County
How to read this radar
Each axis: NRI risk rating (Very Low-Very High) on a 0-100 scale. Rounder = broad exposure; spiky = one or two hazards dominate.
Major Disaster share
70%
Major-heavy
NRI risk score
70
Relatively Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Per-county per-hazard ratings, December 2025 release
How often does each hazard strike Carlton County?
FEMA's National Risk Index models a historical event count and an annualized frequency for each hazard type. Most hazards are expressed as modeled occurrences per year; FEMA expresses drought and heat-wave frequency as event-days per year. These modeled frequencies are not forecasts.
| Hazard | NRI Risk Rating | Recurrence |
|---|---|---|
| Cold Wave | Relatively High | an average of 16 times per year |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | an average of 30 times per year |
| Riverine Flooding | Relatively Low | roughly once every 2 years |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 0.9 modeled event-days per year |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | roughly once every 2 years |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | an average of 24 times per year |
| Hail | Relatively Low | an average of 2 times per year |
| Wildfire | Very Low | roughly once every 3,665 years |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | roughly once every 8 years |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 9.7 modeled event-days per year |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | an average of 1.4 times per year |
| Landslide | Very Low | roughly once every 5 years |
| Earthquake | Very Low | roughly once every 12,987 years |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Modeled annualized frequency; drought and heat wave use event-days/year, December 2025 release
Disaster Types
Flood 5
Biological 2
Severe Storm 1
Hurricane 1
Drought 1
What Flood declarations mean here
Flood is the most frequent declaration type on Carlton County's record, 50% of its declarations. Federal flood declarations cover two mechanisms that behave very differently: riverine flooding, which builds over days as a watershed drains and is usually forecast well in advance, and flash flooding, which can arrive in under an hour from rainfall that fell somewhere upstream.
Flood is also the one hazard class where a second federal dataset exists for the same events. The National Flood Insurance Program records what was actually paid on insured losses, so it measures a narrower thing than the declaration count: uninsured damage, and flooding outside mapped special flood hazard areas, never enters it. Reading the two together is more informative than either alone.
Declaration counts describe past federal action. They are a record of what was declared, not a forecast of future hazard probability.
Declaration Types
What DR / EM / FM mean
FEMA categorizes declarations as Major Disasters (DR), Emergencies (EM), or Fire Management Assistance (FM).
Major Disaster - 7 70.0%
of all 10 declarations
Emergency - 3 30.0%
of all 10 declarations
FEMA Declarations Timeline
| Year | Declarations | |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 1 | |
| 2020 | 2 | |
| 2018 | 1 | |
| 2012 | 1 | |
| 2005 | 1 | |
| 2001 | 1 | |
| 1976 | 1 | |
| 1972 | 2 | |
Disaster Declarations
How the 10 FEMA declarations break into federal action codes (DR / EM / FM). Same DISTINCT grain as the table below.
Download these 10 declarations as CSV . FEMA source data is public domain; our derived presentation is CC0.
| DR# | Title | Type | Incident | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4722 | SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING | DR | Flood | 2023-07-19 |
| 4531 | COVID-19 PANDEMIC | DR | Biological | 2020-04-07 |
| 3453 | COVID-19 | EM | Biological | 2020-03-13 |
| 4390 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, AND FLOODING | DR | Flood | 2018-09-05 |
| 4069 | SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2012-07-06 |
| 3242 | HURRICANE KATRINA EVACUATION | EM | Hurricane | 2005-09-13 |
| 1370 | SEVERE WINTER STORMS, FLOODING, AND TORNADOES | DR | Flood | 2001-05-16 |
| 3013 | DROUGHT | EM | Drought | 1976-06-17 |
| 350 | SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1972-08-25 |
| 347 | SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1972-08-01 |
Storm Events in Minnesota
Statewide NOAA context only. PlainHazard does not currently attribute these state totals to Carlton County.
| Storm Type | Events | Fatalities | Injuries | Property Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunderstorm Wind | 4,420 | 13 | 25 | $68.2M |
| Hail | 4,203 | 0 | 0 | $34.5M |
| Extreme Cold/Wind Chill | 1,789 | 7 | 4 | $55.0K |
| Winter Storm | 1,695 | 2 | 17 | $10.0M |
| Heavy Snow | 1,190 | 9 | 14 | $1.0M |
Source: NOAA Storm Events Database State-level aggregated data, 2015-2025
NFIP Flood Insurance Claims
Total Claims
19
Total Paid
$627.2K
Avg Per Claim
$33.0K
Source: FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA Claims Data
FEMA National Risk Index
Overall Risk
Relatively Low
Score: 70.1/100
Expected Annual Loss
Relatively Low
$31.7M/year
Social Vulnerability
Relatively Low
Community Resilience
Very High
Hazard Risk Breakdown
Cold Wave Relatively High
Lightning Relatively Moderate
Riverine Flooding Relatively Low
Heat Wave Relatively Low
Ice Storm Relatively Low
Winter Weather Relatively Low
Hail Relatively Low
Wildfire Very Low
Tornado Relatively Low
Drought Relatively Low
Strong Wind Relatively Low
Landslide Very Low
Earthquake Very Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) Ratings reflect relative scores among all US counties. Data: hazards.fema.gov/nri
The model's sharpest exposure here: Cold Wave
Cold Wave measures exposure to extreme cold rather than to snow. Its harm is concentrated in health effects, burst infrastructure and energy demand spikes, and it falls hardest where the building stock and the grid were not built with sustained cold in mind.
Worth noting for Carlton County: the model and the federal record do NOT point at the same hazard. Cold Wave carries the highest modeled rating (Relatively High), while the county's declaration history is led by Flood. That is not a contradiction, the two measure genuinely different things. Declarations record federal ACTION, which requires damage costly enough to exceed state and local capacity; the Risk Index models EXPECTED annual loss across all 18 hazards whether or not any declaration ever followed. A hazard can be the county's largest modeled exposure and never once have driven a declaration.
National Risk Index ratings are modeled estimates of expected annual loss, not predictions of what will happen in any given year.
Data-matched county comparisons
Carlton County's closest FEMA peer: Muskegon County, MI
Comparisons use published FEMA declaration fields plus the National Risk Index composite for Carlton County. Record similarity, not a safety rating.
Similar modeled NRI score
Carlton County: NRI composite 70.1 (Relatively Low).
Similar Major-disaster share
Carlton County: 7 of 10 of its declarations are Major.
Closest declaration profiles
Carlton County shows 10 FEMA declarations, led by Flood.
How these peers are chosen
Cohort: Published U.S. county equivalents outside the source state or territory. Each metric keeps six ETL candidates; three unique destinations are shown after de-duplicating across axes. Declaration-volume ranking combines count and Major-disaster share and prefers a different leading incident type; Major-share ranks the Major fraction adjusted for volume; NRI ranks the modeled composite score only.
Retained FEMA snapshot feed for Carlton County - capture-dated entries only.
Compare beyond this state
Nationwide peers by NRI score & FEMA declaration volume
Two PlainHazard-derived comparison paths for Carlton County: nearest out-of-state National Risk Index composite and nearest FEMA declaration count (floor ≥5 records). Record similarity only, not a forecast of the next hazard.
Similar NRI composite
Nearest out-of-state counties by FEMA NRI score. This county: 70.1 (Relatively Low).
Similar declaration volume
Nearest out-of-state counties by FEMA declaration count. This county: 10. NRI peers are excluded so the two link sets stay distinct.
Further reading for this county
Most disaster-prone counties
With 10 FEMA declarations, Carlton County sits in the high-volume declaration band - see how that count ranks against other U.S. counties.
More PlainHazard guides
- Most disaster-prone counties - U.S. counties ranked by FEMA declaration totals.
- Understanding disaster data - declarations vs storm events vs NRI scores.
- Preparing for natural disasters - household checklist (not county-specific advice).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most common disaster type in Carlton County?
The most common disaster type in Carlton County is Flood, with 5 declarations. Other disaster types include Biological (2), Severe Storm (1), Hurricane (1).
How does Carlton County's FEMA declaration record compare with the Minnesota average?
The typical Minnesota county has 17.7 FEMA declaration records; Carlton County has 10, or 44% fewer. Against the national county mean of 20.7, this county's total is 52% lower. The comparison is historical and says nothing about the probability of a future event.
How many major FEMA disaster declarations has Carlton County received?
Carlton County has received 7 major disaster declarations, representing 70% of all 10 disaster declarations.
How many flood insurance claims has Carlton County filed?
Carlton County has 19 National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims totaling $627.2K in payments, with an average of $33.0K per claim.
What was the worst year for disasters in Carlton County?
The most active year for disaster declarations in Carlton County was 1972, with 2 declarations. The county has FEMA disaster data spanning 1972 to 2023.
What is the FEMA National Risk Index score for Carlton County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, Carlton County, Minnesota has an overall risk score of 70.1 out of 100 (Relatively Low). The county's social vulnerability rating is Relatively Low and community resilience is Very High. The Expected Annual Loss (EAL) score is Relatively Low, representing $31.7M in annualized losses.
Which natural hazard poses the greatest risk to Carlton County?
The top hazard flagged by FEMA's NRI for Carlton County is Cold Wave (risk rating: Relatively High). Other significant hazards include Lightning (Relatively Moderate) and Riverine Flooding (Relatively Low). FEMA's modeled event frequency puts cold wave here at an average of 16 times per year, drawn from 299 historical events on record. The underlying methodology weighs historical event frequency against exposed assets and community vulnerability.
Data Sources & Methodology
Disaster declaration data comes from the FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 API, which includes all federally declared disasters, emergencies, and fire management assistance grants.
Storm event data is sourced from the NOAA Storm Events Database (2015-2025), which tracks significant weather events including thunderstorms, tornadoes, floods, and winter storms.
Flood insurance data comes from the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA claims dataset.
This data is provided for informational purposes only. FEMA disaster declarations represent federal response actions and may not capture all local emergencies or weather events.
FEMA OpenFEMA declarations + NRI for Carlton County · vintage 2026-08-25 · Methodology · Minnesota profile · Verify with FEMA OpenFEMA · Verify with NOAA Storm Events