FEMA Records
17
Below median
Virginia · FEMA + NOAA + National Risk Index
Fairfax (city), VA
17 FEMA disaster declarations (1972-2026), with a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Very Low. Most common hazard: Snowstorm.
- 17
- FEMA declarations
- 11
- Major disasters
- 5
- NRI risk · Very Low
- Snowstorm
- Top hazard
The verdict
Fairfax (city) has a nationally busy FEMA history: 17 declarations, more than 32% of counties in this registry. But the state comparison tempers that reading: the total is 17% below the Virginia county mean. FEMA's separate National Risk Index places the county safer than 5%; that score models loss and vulnerability rather than counting declarations.
- Safer than 5%
- of U.S. counties for FEMA National Risk Index score
- Very Low
- FEMA National Risk Index rating
- 17
- FEMA declarations vs 21 national county avg
- 53
- NFIP flood insurance claims filed
FEMA's National Risk Index and its declaration registry are separate measures. This county's registry includes Major Disaster (DR) and Emergency (EM) records; an EM authorizes a narrower set of federal assistance than a DR.
FEMA OpenFEMA declaration desk
County FIPS 51600 · Fairfax (city) 17 declarations · rank 2160/3,266
DECL-MID · MAJOR-MID · RANK-LOWER · PHOTO-FINISH · NRI-LOW · ACT-HIGH · TYPE-LEAD · VS-ST-BELOW
- DECL-MID 17
- MAJOR-MID 65%
- RANK-LOWER #2,160
- PHOTO-FINISH Curry
- NRI-LOW Very Low
- ACT-HIGH High
- TYPE-LEAD Snowstorm
- VS-ST-BELOW -17%
Nearest declaration peer: Curry, OR (0 declaration gap)
FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 filing stamps for this county register. Read with this county → · Virginia state profile
Fairfax (city) among counties with fewer federal records
FEMA declaration records among Fairfax (city) and nearest peers by total count
- Los Angeles · largest
Los Angeles · largest
88 declarations
- Curry · near 17
Curry · near
17 declarations
- Fairfax (city) · this county 17
Fairfax (city) · this county
17 declarations
- Murray · near 17
Murray · near
17 declarations
- Washington · near 17
Washington · near
17 declarations
- Ujelang · smallest 1
Ujelang · smallest
1 declarations
What this shows Fairfax (city) carries 17 FEMA declaration records, ranked 2160 of 3,266 counties in this registry.
Fairfax (city) versus quieter counties in this dataset
Fairfax (city) among lower-declaration counties nationally
FEMA disaster declarations, all-time · Fairfax (city)
17 32nd percentile higher than 32% of 3,266 counties
Each bar is a band; taller bars hold more counties. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count, share, and where it sits relative to this entry.
Source FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 · 2026-08-25
Fairfax (city)'s FEMA Risk Index score
Which hazard drives modeled loss here?
FEMA's modeled annual dollar loss for Fairfax (city) is led by Riverine Flooding (about $2.5M Expected Annual Loss, Historical Loss Ratio Relatively Low), while Hurricane carries the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively Low). EAL and risk score use different inputs; they need not agree.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025 release) - Expected Annual Loss vs composite risk rating by hazard.
What does Fairfax (city)'s hazard record show?
Reading the federal records together
The NFIP claims register shows a middle-volume loss record here: 53 paid claims, totaling $939.7K. PlainHazard uses 50-499 claims for this descriptive band; FEMA does not publish it as a safety or coverage category. The $17.7K average describes payments on recorded claims only, leaving uninsured damage and properties without a claim outside the measure.
Start with the state benchmark: a Virginia county averages 20.4 federal declaration records, while Fairfax (city) has 17. The gap is 17% below that mean. Fewer entries indicate a quieter history of recorded federal actions, not immunity from a hazard and not a prediction about what happens next.
FEMA National Risk Index
FEMA's National Risk Index places this county in the low end of the national distribution, composite score 5.3/100 (Very Low). Expected Annual Loss is rated Very Low (roughly $4.8M in annualized losses). Two modifiers shape how that exposure becomes real-world harm here: social vulnerability (Very Low) and community resilience (Relatively High). Even the county's top-rated hazard, Hurricane, only reaches Relatively Low on FEMA's scale, none of the 18 modeled hazards stand out here. FEMA's modeled frequency puts that hazard at roughly once every 10 years here, based on 12 historical events on record.
53 /100
Historical Activity Index
High historical activity
Fairfax (city), VA · PlainHazard-derived composite from federal records
This 0–100 index is an explicit PlainHazard composite from FEMA declaration history only on the county surface (this DB has no county-level NOAA damage row) . It is not FEMA's National Risk Index, not a forecast, and not a safety, insurance, or preparedness rating. Open the calculator · Methodology
FEMA Declarations (1953–present) Moderate
12/30
17 OpenFEMA declarations, full ingest window (0.8x national county average)
County Disaster Density Moderate
10/25
17 declarations (0.8x state county average of 20)
Major Disaster Share High
16/25
11 of 17 declarations are major disasters (65%)
Hazard Diversity Very High
15/20
6 different disaster types declared in Fairfax (city)
FEMA NRI 8-hazard radar - Fairfax (city)
How to read this radar
Each axis: NRI risk rating (Very Low-Very High) on a 0-100 scale. Rounder = broad exposure; spiky = one or two hazards dominate.
Major Disaster share
65%
Major-heavy
NRI risk score
5
Very Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Per-county per-hazard ratings, December 2025 release
How often does each hazard strike Fairfax (city)?
FEMA's National Risk Index models a historical event count and an annualized frequency for each hazard type. Most hazards are expressed as modeled occurrences per year; FEMA expresses drought and heat-wave frequency as event-days per year. These modeled frequencies are not forecasts.
| Hazard | NRI Risk Rating | Recurrence |
|---|---|---|
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | roughly once every 10 years |
| Earthquake | Very Low | roughly once every 971 years |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 5.9 modeled event-days per year |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | an average of 41 times per year |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | an average of 8.3 times per year |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | an average of 9.8 times per year |
| Tornado | Very Low | roughly once every 214 years |
| Hail | Very Low | an average of 4 times per year |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | roughly once every 2 years |
| Riverine Flooding | Very Low | roughly once every 1 years |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | an average of 1.4 times per year |
| Landslide | Very Low | roughly once every 274 years |
| Wildfire | Very Low | roughly once every 89,760 years |
| Drought | No Rating | 1.7 modeled event-days per year |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Modeled annualized frequency; drought and heat wave use event-days/year, December 2025 release
Disaster Types
Hurricane 5
Snowstorm 5
Severe Storm 3
Biological 2
Winter Storm 1
Flood 1
What Snowstorm declarations mean here
Snowstorm is the most frequent declaration type on Fairfax (city)'s record, 29% of its declarations. Snow-related declarations work on a narrower basis than most other hazards: they are generally issued to reimburse the cost of snow removal and emergency protective measures, rather than to repair destroyed property.
The qualifying test is unusual too. FEMA assesses snowfall against record levels for the affected area, so the same storm total can qualify in a county where it is historically extreme and not qualify a few hundred miles north where it is an ordinary winter. A low snowstorm declaration count is therefore not evidence of mild winters.
Declaration counts describe past federal action. They are a record of what was declared, not a forecast of future hazard probability.
Declaration Types
What DR / EM / FM mean
FEMA categorizes declarations as Major Disasters (DR), Emergencies (EM), or Fire Management Assistance (FM).
Major Disaster - 11 64.7%
of all 17 declarations
Emergency - 6 35.3%
of all 17 declarations
FEMA Declarations Timeline
| Year | Declarations | |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | |
| 2020 | 2 | |
| 2018 | 1 | |
| 2016 | 1 | |
| 2013 | 2 | |
| 2012 | 1 | |
| 2010 | 2 | |
| 2005 | 1 | |
| 2003 | 2 | |
| 2000 | 1 | |
| 1996 | 1 | |
| 1993 | 1 | |
| 1972 | 1 | |
Disaster Declarations
How the 17 FEMA declarations break into federal action codes (DR / EM / FM). Same DISTINCT grain as the table below.
Download these 17 declarations as CSV . FEMA source data is public domain; our derived presentation is CC0.
| DR# | Title | Type | Incident | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3631 | SEVERE WINTER STORM | EM | Winter Storm | 2026-01-23 |
| 4512 | COVID-19 PANDEMIC | DR | Biological | 2020-04-02 |
| 3448 | COVID-19 | EM | Biological | 2020-03-13 |
| 3403 | HURRICANE FLORENCE | EM | Hurricane | 2018-09-11 |
| 4262 | SEVERE WINTER STORM AND SNOWSTORM | DR | Snowstorm | 2016-03-07 |
| 4092 | HURRICANE SANDY | DR | Hurricane | 2012-11-26 |
| 3359 | HURRICANE SANDY | EM | Hurricane | 2012-10-29 |
| 4072 | SEVERE STORMS AND STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS | DR | Severe Storm | 2012-07-27 |
| 1905 | SEVERE WINTER STORMS AND SNOWSTORMS | DR | Snowstorm | 2010-04-27 |
| 1874 | SEVERE WINTER STORM AND SNOWSTORM | DR | Snowstorm | 2010-02-16 |
| 3240 | HURRICANE KATRINA EVACUATION | EM | Hurricane | 2005-09-12 |
| 1491 | HURRICANE ISABEL | DR | Hurricane | 2003-09-18 |
| 1458 | SEVERE WINTER STORM, RECORD/NEAR RECORD SNOWFALL, HEAVY RAIN,FLOODIND, AND MUDSLIDE | DR | Severe Storm | 2003-03-27 |
| 1318 | SEVERE WINTER STORMS | DR | Severe Storm | 2000-02-28 |
| 1086 | BLIZZARD OF 96 (SEVERE SNOW STORM) | DR | Snowstorm | 1996-01-13 |
| 3112 | SEVERE WINTER STORM | EM | Snowstorm | 1993-03-25 |
| 339 | TROPICAL STORM AGNES | DR | Flood | 1972-06-23 |
Storm Events in Virginia
Statewide NOAA context only. PlainHazard does not currently attribute these state totals to Fairfax (city).
| Storm Type | Events | Fatalities | Injuries | Property Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunderstorm Wind | 8,940 | 13 | 31 | $123.1M |
| Flood | 2,300 | 4 | 0 | $85.1M |
| Winter Weather | 2,049 | 6 | 32 | $902.0K |
| Flash Flood | 1,942 | 13 | 4 | $244.2M |
| Heavy Rain | 1,566 | 0 | 0 | $2.5M |
Source: NOAA Storm Events Database State-level aggregated data, 2015-2025
NFIP Flood Insurance Claims
Total Claims
53
Total Paid
$939.7K
Avg Per Claim
$17.7K
Source: FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA Claims Data
FEMA National Risk Index
Overall Risk
Very Low
Score: 5.3/100
Expected Annual Loss
Very Low
$4.8M/year
Social Vulnerability
Very Low
Community Resilience
Relatively High
Hazard Risk Breakdown
Hurricane Relatively Low
Earthquake Very Low
Heat Wave Relatively Low
Lightning Relatively Low
Strong Wind Relatively Low
Winter Weather Relatively Low
Tornado Very Low
Hail Very Low
Ice Storm Very Low
Riverine Flooding Very Low
Cold Wave Very Low
Landslide Very Low
Wildfire Very Low
Drought No Rating
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) Ratings reflect relative scores among all US counties. Data: hazards.fema.gov/nri
The model's sharpest exposure here: Hurricane
Hurricane exposure in the model bundles the three ways a tropical system does harm, which arrive on different timescales and are insured differently: wind, storm surge on the coast, and rainfall flooding that can reach far inland well after landfall.
Worth noting for Fairfax (city): the model and the federal record do NOT point at the same hazard. Hurricane carries the highest modeled rating (Relatively Low), while the county's declaration history is led by Snowstorm. That is not a contradiction, the two measure genuinely different things. Declarations record federal ACTION, which requires damage costly enough to exceed state and local capacity; the Risk Index models EXPECTED annual loss across all 18 hazards whether or not any declaration ever followed. A hazard can be the county's largest modeled exposure and never once have driven a declaration.
National Risk Index ratings are modeled estimates of expected annual loss, not predictions of what will happen in any given year.
Data-matched county comparisons
Fairfax (city)'s closest FEMA peer: Powell County, MT
Comparisons use published FEMA declaration fields plus the National Risk Index composite for Fairfax (city). Record similarity, not a safety rating.
Closest declaration profiles
Fairfax (city) shows 17 FEMA declarations, led by Snowstorm.
Similar Major-disaster share
Fairfax (city): 11 of 17 of its declarations are Major.
Similar modeled NRI score
Fairfax (city): NRI composite 5.3 (Very Low).
How these peers are chosen
Cohort: Published U.S. county equivalents outside the source state or territory. Each metric keeps six ETL candidates; three unique destinations are shown after de-duplicating across axes. Declaration-volume ranking combines count and Major-disaster share and prefers a different leading incident type; Major-share ranks the Major fraction adjusted for volume; NRI ranks the modeled composite score only.
Retained FEMA snapshot feed for Fairfax (city) - capture-dated entries only.
Compare beyond this state
Nationwide peers by NRI score & FEMA declaration volume
Two PlainHazard-derived comparison paths for Fairfax (city): nearest out-of-state National Risk Index composite and nearest FEMA declaration count (floor ≥5 records). Record similarity only, not a forecast of the next hazard.
Similar NRI composite
Nearest out-of-state counties by FEMA NRI score. This county: 5.3 (Very Low).
Similar declaration volume
Nearest out-of-state counties by FEMA declaration count. This county: 17. NRI peers are excluded so the two link sets stay distinct.
Further reading for this county
Understanding disaster data
Fairfax (city)'s NFIP claims file (53 claims) and FEMA declaration history measure different federal records - this guide separates them from modeled NRI risk.
More PlainHazard guides
- Most disaster-prone counties - U.S. counties ranked by FEMA declaration totals.
- Understanding disaster data - declarations vs storm events vs NRI scores.
- Preparing for natural disasters - household checklist (not county-specific advice).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most common disaster type in Fairfax (city)?
The most common disaster type in Fairfax (city) is Snowstorm, with 5 declarations. Other disaster types include Hurricane (5), Severe Storm (3), Biological (2).
How does Fairfax (city)'s FEMA declaration record compare with the Virginia average?
The typical Virginia county has 20.4 FEMA declaration records; Fairfax (city) has 17, or 17% fewer. Against the national county mean of 20.7, this county's total is 18% lower. The comparison is historical and says nothing about the probability of a future event.
How many major FEMA disaster declarations has Fairfax (city) received?
Fairfax (city) has received 11 major disaster declarations, representing 65% of all 17 disaster declarations.
How many flood insurance claims has Fairfax (city) filed?
Fairfax (city) has 53 National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims totaling $939.7K in payments, with an average of $17.7K per claim.
Does FEMA's top risk-rated hazard match the highest Expected Annual Loss in Fairfax (city)?
No. In Fairfax (city), Hurricane has the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively Low), while Riverine Flooding leads Expected Annual Loss at about $2.5M. FEMA's risk score and dollar-loss model use different inputs, so the leaders often differ.
What was the worst year for disasters in Fairfax (city)?
The most active year for disaster declarations in Fairfax (city) was 2003, with 2 declarations. The county has FEMA disaster data spanning 1972 to 2026.
What is the FEMA National Risk Index score for Fairfax (city)?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, Fairfax (city), Virginia has an overall risk score of 5.3 out of 100 (Very Low). On social vulnerability the county rates Very Low; on community resilience, Relatively High. The Expected Annual Loss (EAL) score is Very Low, representing $4.8M in annualized losses.
Which natural hazard poses the greatest risk to Fairfax (city)?
FEMA's NRI data points to Fairfax (city) is Hurricane (risk rating: Relatively Low). Other significant hazards include Earthquake (Very Low) and Heat Wave (Relatively Low). FEMA's modeled event frequency puts hurricane here at roughly once every 10 years, drawn from 12 historical events on record. The underlying methodology weighs historical event frequency against exposed assets and community vulnerability.
Data Sources & Methodology
Disaster declaration data comes from the FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 API, which includes all federally declared disasters, emergencies, and fire management assistance grants.
Storm event data is sourced from the NOAA Storm Events Database (2015-2025), which tracks significant weather events including thunderstorms, tornadoes, floods, and winter storms.
Flood insurance data comes from the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA claims dataset.
This data is provided for informational purposes only. FEMA disaster declarations represent federal response actions and may not capture all local emergencies or weather events.
FEMA OpenFEMA declarations + NRI for Fairfax (city) · vintage 2026-08-25 · Methodology · Virginia profile · Verify with FEMA OpenFEMA · Verify with NOAA Storm Events