FEMA Records
19
Below median
Virginia · FEMA + NOAA + National Risk Index
Fairfax County, VA
19 FEMA disaster declarations (1972-2026), with a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively High. Most common hazard: Hurricane.
- 19
- FEMA declarations
- 13
- Major disasters
- 95
- NRI risk · Relatively High
- Hurricane
- Top hazard
The verdict
Fairfax County has a nationally busy FEMA history: 19 declarations, more than 41% of counties in this registry. But the state comparison tempers that reading: the total is 7% below the Virginia county mean. FEMA's separate National Risk Index places the county in the riskiest 5%; that score models loss and vulnerability rather than counting declarations.
- Riskiest 5%
- of U.S. counties for FEMA National Risk Index score
- Relatively High
- FEMA National Risk Index rating
- 19
- FEMA declarations vs 21 national county avg
- 1,487
- NFIP flood insurance claims filed
FEMA's National Risk Index and its declaration registry are separate measures. This county's registry includes Major Disaster (DR) and Emergency (EM) records; an EM authorizes a narrower set of federal assistance than a DR.
FEMA OpenFEMA declaration desk
County FIPS 51059 · Fairfax County 19 declarations · rank 1862/3,266
DECL-MID · MAJOR-MID · RANK-LOWER · PHOTO-FINISH · NRI-HIGH · ACT-HIGH · TYPE-LEAD · VS-ST-BELOW
- DECL-MID 19
- MAJOR-MID 68%
- RANK-LOWER #1,862
- PHOTO-FINISH Bartow
- NRI-HIGH 95
- ACT-HIGH High
- TYPE-LEAD Hurricane
- VS-ST-BELOW -7%
Nearest declaration peer: Bartow, GA (0 declaration gap)
FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 filing stamps for this county register. Read with this county → · Virginia state profile
Fairfax County in the declaration-count neighbourhood
FEMA declaration records among Fairfax County and nearest peers by total count
- Los Angeles · largest
Los Angeles · largest
88 declarations
- Bartow · near 19
Bartow · near
19 declarations
- Fairfax · this county 19
Fairfax · this county
19 declarations
- Union · near 19
Union · near
19 declarations
- Warren · near 19
Warren · near
19 declarations
- Ujelang · smallest 1
Ujelang · smallest
1 declarations
What this shows Fairfax County carries 19 FEMA declaration records, ranked 1862 of 3,266 counties in this registry.
How Fairfax County's FEMA declaration count compares nationally
Fairfax County vs. all counties in this dataset
FEMA disaster declarations, all-time · Fairfax County
19 41st percentile higher than 41% of 3,266 counties
Each bar is a band; taller bars hold more counties. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count, share, and where it sits relative to this entry.
Source FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 · 2026-08-25
Fairfax County's FEMA Risk Index score
Which hazard drives modeled loss here?
FEMA's modeled annual dollar loss for Fairfax County is led by Riverine Flooding (about $154.7M Expected Annual Loss, Historical Loss Ratio Relatively Moderate), while Winter Weather carries the highest National Risk Index rating (Very High). EAL and risk score use different inputs; they need not agree.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025 release) - Expected Annual Loss vs composite risk rating by hazard.
What does Fairfax County's hazard record show?
Reading the federal records together
FEMA's NFIP table contains a substantial paid-claim history for this county: 1,487 claims and $16.5M in payments. PlainHazard labels 500 or more claims a heavy registry record; that is a reporting bucket, not an official FEMA risk grade. The average paid claim was $11.1K. NFIP totals exclude uninsured flood losses and do not measure how many properties currently carry a policy.
Start with the state benchmark: a Virginia county averages 20.4 federal declaration records, while Fairfax County has 19. The gap is 7% below that mean. Fewer entries indicate a quieter history of recorded federal actions, not immunity from a hazard and not a prediction about what happens next.
FEMA National Risk Index
This county sits among the highest-risk counties nationally on FEMA's National Risk Index, a composite score of 94.7/100 (Relatively High). Expected Annual Loss is rated Relatively High (roughly $219.1M in annualized losses). Social vulnerability reads Very Low and community resilience Relatively Moderate, both critical modifiers of realized harm here. Of the 18 hazards FEMA models, Winter Weather stands out as the sharpest exposure here, rated Very High. FEMA's modeled frequency puts that hazard at an average of 9.7 times per year here, based on 182 historical events on record.
61 /100
Historical Activity Index
High historical activity
Fairfax County, VA · PlainHazard-derived composite from federal records
This 0–100 index is an explicit PlainHazard composite from FEMA declaration history only on the county surface (this DB has no county-level NOAA damage row) . It is not FEMA's National Risk Index, not a forecast, and not a safety, insurance, or preparedness rating. Open the calculator · Methodology
FEMA Declarations (1953–present) Moderate
14/30
19 OpenFEMA declarations, full ingest window (0.9x national county average)
County Disaster Density Moderate
12/25
19 declarations (0.9x state county average of 20)
Major Disaster Share High
17/25
13 of 19 declarations are major disasters (68%)
Hazard Diversity Very High
18/20
7 different disaster types declared in Fairfax County
FEMA NRI 8-hazard radar - Fairfax County
How to read this radar
Each axis: NRI risk rating (Very Low-Very High) on a 0-100 scale. Rounder = broad exposure; spiky = one or two hazards dominate.
Major Disaster share
68%
Major-heavy
NRI risk score
95
Relatively High
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Per-county per-hazard ratings, December 2025 release
How often does each hazard strike Fairfax County?
FEMA's National Risk Index models a historical event count and an annualized frequency for each hazard type. Most hazards are expressed as modeled occurrences per year; FEMA expresses drought and heat-wave frequency as event-days per year. These modeled frequencies are not forecasts.
| Hazard | NRI Risk Rating | Recurrence |
|---|---|---|
| Winter Weather | Very High | an average of 9.7 times per year |
| Lightning | Very High | an average of 41 times per year |
| Heat Wave | Relatively High | 5.9 modeled event-days per year |
| Riverine Flooding | Relatively High | an average of 5.8 times per year |
| Strong Wind | Relatively High | an average of 7.8 times per year |
| Hail | Relatively High | an average of 3.9 times per year |
| Hurricane | Relatively Moderate | roughly once every 11 years |
| Earthquake | Relatively Moderate | roughly once every 806 years |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | an average of 1.4 times per year |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Moderate | roughly once every 2 years |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | roughly once every 3 years |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | roughly once every 3 years |
| Coastal Flooding | Relatively Low | an average of 3.8 times per year |
| Wildfire | Very Low | roughly once every 47,207 years |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 2.2 modeled event-days per year |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Modeled annualized frequency; drought and heat wave use event-days/year, December 2025 release
Disaster Types
Hurricane 5
Snowstorm 5
Severe Storm 4
Biological 2
Winter Storm 1
Freezing 1
Flood 1
What Hurricane declarations mean here
Hurricane is the most frequent declaration type on Fairfax County's federal record, 26% of its declarations. Atlantic tropical systems run on a defined season, 1 June to 30 November, with most activity concentrated between August and October; Pacific and territorial basins run on their own calendars. A single named storm routinely produces one declaration number covering a long corridor of counties at once, well inland as well as on the coast, which is why an affected county's count can jump by several in one year without several separate events having occurred.
One practical distinction matters when reading these records: a tropical declaration usually bundles wind, storm surge and inland rainfall flooding under a single incident, but the insurance behind them is split. Wind damage falls to property insurers, while flood and surge damage is covered only under a separate National Flood Insurance Program policy. That is why a county can show heavy declaration activity and a comparatively small NFIP claims record, or the reverse.
Declaration counts describe past federal action. They are a record of what was declared, not a forecast of future hazard probability.
Declaration Types
What DR / EM / FM mean
FEMA categorizes declarations as Major Disasters (DR), Emergencies (EM), or Fire Management Assistance (FM).
Major Disaster - 13 68.4%
of all 19 declarations
Emergency - 6 31.6%
of all 19 declarations
FEMA Declarations Timeline
| Year | Declarations | |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | |
| 2020 | 2 | |
| 2018 | 1 | |
| 2016 | 1 | |
| 2013 | 1 | |
| 2012 | 1 | |
| 2010 | 2 | |
| 2006 | 1 | |
| 2005 | 1 | |
| 2003 | 2 | |
| 2000 | 1 | |
| 1999 | 1 | |
| 1996 | 1 | |
| 1993 | 1 | |
| 1977 | 1 | |
Show 1 earlier declaration years
| 1972 | 1 | |
Disaster Declarations
How the 19 FEMA declarations break into federal action codes (DR / EM / FM). Same DISTINCT grain as the table below.
Download these 19 declarations as CSV . FEMA source data is public domain; our derived presentation is CC0.
| DR# | Title | Type | Incident | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3631 | SEVERE WINTER STORM | EM | Winter Storm | 2026-01-23 |
| 4512 | COVID-19 PANDEMIC | DR | Biological | 2020-04-02 |
| 3448 | COVID-19 | EM | Biological | 2020-03-13 |
| 3403 | HURRICANE FLORENCE | EM | Hurricane | 2018-09-11 |
| 4262 | SEVERE WINTER STORM AND SNOWSTORM | DR | Snowstorm | 2016-03-07 |
| 3359 | HURRICANE SANDY | EM | Hurricane | 2012-10-29 |
| 4045 | THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM LEE | DR | Severe Storm | 2011-11-17 |
| 1905 | SEVERE WINTER STORMS AND SNOWSTORMS | DR | Snowstorm | 2010-04-27 |
| 1874 | SEVERE WINTER STORM AND SNOWSTORM | DR | Snowstorm | 2010-02-16 |
| 1655 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2006-07-13 |
| 3240 | HURRICANE KATRINA EVACUATION | EM | Hurricane | 2005-09-12 |
| 1491 | HURRICANE ISABEL | DR | Hurricane | 2003-09-18 |
| 1458 | SEVERE WINTER STORM, RECORD/NEAR RECORD SNOWFALL, HEAVY RAIN,FLOODIND, AND MUDSLIDE | DR | Severe Storm | 2003-03-27 |
| 1318 | SEVERE WINTER STORMS | DR | Severe Storm | 2000-02-28 |
| 1293 | HURRICANE FLOYD MAJOR DISASTER DECLARATIONS | DR | Hurricane | 1999-09-18 |
| 1086 | BLIZZARD OF 96 (SEVERE SNOW STORM) | DR | Snowstorm | 1996-01-13 |
| 3112 | SEVERE WINTER STORM | EM | Snowstorm | 1993-03-25 |
| 525 | ICE CONDITIONS | DR | Freezing | 1977-01-26 |
| 339 | TROPICAL STORM AGNES | DR | Flood | 1972-06-23 |
Storm Events in Virginia
Statewide NOAA context only. PlainHazard does not currently attribute these state totals to Fairfax County.
| Storm Type | Events | Fatalities | Injuries | Property Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunderstorm Wind | 8,940 | 13 | 31 | $123.1M |
| Flood | 2,300 | 4 | 0 | $85.1M |
| Winter Weather | 2,049 | 6 | 32 | $902.0K |
| Flash Flood | 1,942 | 13 | 4 | $244.2M |
| Heavy Rain | 1,566 | 0 | 0 | $2.5M |
Source: NOAA Storm Events Database State-level aggregated data, 2015-2025
NFIP Flood Insurance Claims
Total Claims
1,487
Total Paid
$16.5M
Avg Per Claim
$11.1K
Source: FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA Claims Data
FEMA National Risk Index
Overall Risk
Relatively High
Score: 94.7/100
Expected Annual Loss
Relatively High
$219.1M/year
Social Vulnerability
Very Low
Community Resilience
Relatively Moderate
Hazard Risk Breakdown
Winter Weather Very High
Lightning Very High
Heat Wave Relatively High
Riverine Flooding Relatively High
Strong Wind Relatively High
Hail Relatively High
Hurricane Relatively Moderate
Earthquake Relatively Moderate
Cold Wave Relatively Moderate
Ice Storm Relatively Moderate
Landslide Relatively Low
Tornado Relatively Low
Coastal Flooding Relatively Low
Wildfire Very Low
Drought Relatively Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) Ratings reflect relative scores among all US counties. Data: hazards.fema.gov/nri
The model's sharpest exposure here: Winter Weather
Winter Weather in the model means the accumulation of snow and cold that disrupts rather than destroys: road closures, roof loads, burst pipes and lost heating. Its costs land heavily on transport and on households least able to absorb an interruption.
Worth noting for Fairfax County: the model and the federal record do NOT point at the same hazard. Winter Weather carries the highest modeled rating (Very High), while the county's declaration history is led by Hurricane. That is not a contradiction, the two measure genuinely different things. Declarations record federal ACTION, which requires damage costly enough to exceed state and local capacity; the Risk Index models EXPECTED annual loss across all 18 hazards whether or not any declaration ever followed. A hazard can be the county's largest modeled exposure and never once have driven a declaration.
National Risk Index ratings are modeled estimates of expected annual loss, not predictions of what will happen in any given year.
Data-matched county comparisons
Fairfax County's closest FEMA peer: Citrus County, FL
Comparisons use published FEMA declaration fields plus the National Risk Index composite for Fairfax County. Record similarity, not a safety rating.
Similar modeled NRI score
Fairfax County: NRI composite 94.7 (Relatively High).
Similar Major-disaster share
Fairfax County: 13 of 19 of its declarations are Major.
Closest declaration profiles
Fairfax County shows 19 FEMA declarations, led by Hurricane.
How these peers are chosen
Cohort: Published U.S. county equivalents outside the source state or territory. Each metric keeps six ETL candidates; three unique destinations are shown after de-duplicating across axes. Declaration-volume ranking combines count and Major-disaster share and prefers a different leading incident type; Major-share ranks the Major fraction adjusted for volume; NRI ranks the modeled composite score only.
Retained FEMA snapshot feed for Fairfax County - capture-dated entries only.
Compare beyond this state
Nationwide peers by NRI score & FEMA declaration volume
Two PlainHazard-derived comparison paths for Fairfax County: nearest out-of-state National Risk Index composite and nearest FEMA declaration count (floor ≥5 records). Record similarity only, not a forecast of the next hazard.
Similar NRI composite
Nearest out-of-state counties by FEMA NRI score. This county: 94.7 (Relatively High).
Similar declaration volume
Nearest out-of-state counties by FEMA declaration count. This county: 19. NRI peers are excluded so the two link sets stay distinct.
Further reading for this county
Understanding disaster data
Fairfax County's NFIP claims file (1,487 claims) and FEMA declaration history measure different federal records - this guide separates them from modeled NRI risk.
More PlainHazard guides
- Most disaster-prone counties - U.S. counties ranked by FEMA declaration totals.
- Understanding disaster data - declarations vs storm events vs NRI scores.
- Preparing for natural disasters - household checklist (not county-specific advice).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most common disaster type in Fairfax County?
The most common disaster type in Fairfax County is Hurricane, with 5 declarations. Other disaster types include Snowstorm (5), Severe Storm (4), Biological (2).
How does Fairfax County's FEMA declaration record compare with the Virginia average?
The typical Virginia county has 20.4 FEMA declaration records; Fairfax County has 19, or 7% fewer. Against the national county mean of 20.7, this county's total is 8% lower. The comparison is historical and says nothing about the probability of a future event.
How many major FEMA disaster declarations has Fairfax County received?
Fairfax County has received 13 major disaster declarations, representing 68% of all 19 disaster declarations.
How many flood insurance claims has Fairfax County filed?
Fairfax County has 1,487 National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims totaling $16.5M in payments, with an average of $11.1K per claim.
Does FEMA's top risk-rated hazard match the highest Expected Annual Loss in Fairfax County?
No. In Fairfax County, Winter Weather has the highest National Risk Index rating (Very High), while Riverine Flooding leads Expected Annual Loss at about $154.7M. FEMA's risk score and dollar-loss model use different inputs, so the leaders often differ.
What was the worst year for disasters in Fairfax County?
The most active year for disaster declarations in Fairfax County was 2003, with 2 declarations. The county has FEMA disaster data spanning 1972 to 2026.
What is the FEMA National Risk Index score for Fairfax County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, Fairfax County, Virginia has an overall risk score of 94.7 out of 100 (Relatively High). The county's social vulnerability rating is Very Low and community resilience is Relatively Moderate. The Expected Annual Loss (EAL) score is Relatively High, representing $219.1M in annualized losses.
Which natural hazard poses the greatest risk to Fairfax County?
Based on FEMA NRI data, the highest-risk natural hazard in Fairfax County as of the latest release is Winter Weather (risk rating: Very High). Other significant hazards include Lightning (Very High) and Heat Wave (Relatively High). FEMA's modeled event frequency puts winter weather here at an average of 9.7 times per year, drawn from 182 historical events on record. The underlying methodology weighs historical event frequency against exposed assets and community vulnerability.
Data Sources & Methodology
Disaster declaration data comes from the FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 API, which includes all federally declared disasters, emergencies, and fire management assistance grants.
Storm event data is sourced from the NOAA Storm Events Database (2015-2025), which tracks significant weather events including thunderstorms, tornadoes, floods, and winter storms.
Flood insurance data comes from the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA claims dataset.
This data is provided for informational purposes only. FEMA disaster declarations represent federal response actions and may not capture all local emergencies or weather events.
FEMA OpenFEMA declarations + NRI for Fairfax County · vintage 2026-08-25 · Methodology · Virginia profile · Verify with FEMA OpenFEMA · Verify with NOAA Storm Events