FEMA Records
20
Above median
Virginia · FEMA + NOAA + National Risk Index
Prince William County, VA
20 FEMA disaster declarations (1972-2026), with a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Moderate. Most common hazard: Hurricane.
- 20
- FEMA declarations
- 13
- Major disasters
- 83
- NRI risk · Relatively Moderate
- Hurricane
- Top hazard
The verdict
Prince William County has a nationally busy FEMA history: 20 declarations, more than 46% of counties in this registry. But the state comparison tempers that reading: the total is 2% below the Virginia county mean. FEMA's separate National Risk Index places the county in the riskiest 17%; that score models loss and vulnerability rather than counting declarations.
- Riskiest 17%
- of U.S. counties for FEMA National Risk Index score
- Relatively Moderate
- FEMA National Risk Index rating
- 20
- FEMA declarations vs 21 national county avg
- 483
- NFIP flood insurance claims filed
FEMA's National Risk Index and its declaration registry are separate measures. This county's registry includes Major Disaster (DR) and Emergency (EM) records; an EM authorizes a narrower set of federal assistance than a DR.
FEMA OpenFEMA declaration desk
County FIPS 51153 · Prince William County 20 declarations · rank 1669/3,266
DECL-HEAVY · MAJOR-MID · RANK-LOWER · PHOTO-FINISH · NRI-MID · ACT-HIGH · TYPE-LEAD · VS-ST-BELOW
- DECL-HEAVY 20
- MAJOR-MID 65%
- RANK-LOWER #1,669
- PHOTO-FINISH Monona
- NRI-MID 83
- ACT-HIGH High
- TYPE-LEAD Hurricane
- VS-ST-BELOW -2%
Nearest declaration peer: Monona, IA (0 declaration gap)
FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 filing stamps for this county register. Read with this county → · Virginia state profile
Prince William County in the declaration-count neighbourhood
FEMA declaration records among Prince William County and nearest peers by total count
- Los Angeles · largest
Los Angeles · largest
88 declarations
- Cleveland · near 20
Cleveland · near
20 declarations
- Monona · near 20
Monona · near
20 declarations
- Prince William · this county 20
Prince William · this county
20 declarations
- Tallapoosa · near 20
Tallapoosa · near
20 declarations
- Ujelang · smallest 1
Ujelang · smallest
1 declarations
What this shows Prince William County carries 20 FEMA declaration records, ranked 1669 of 3,266 counties in this registry.
How Prince William County's FEMA declaration count compares nationally
Prince William County vs. all counties in this dataset
FEMA disaster declarations, all-time · Prince William County
20 46th percentile higher than 46% of 3,266 counties
Each bar is a band; taller bars hold more counties. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count, share, and where it sits relative to this entry.
Source FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 · 2026-08-25
Prince William County's FEMA Risk Index score
Which hazard drives modeled loss here?
FEMA's modeled annual dollar loss for Prince William County is led by Riverine Flooding (about $44.6M Expected Annual Loss, Historical Loss Ratio Relatively Moderate), while Heat Wave carries the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively Moderate). EAL and risk score use different inputs; they need not agree.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025 release) - Expected Annual Loss vs composite risk rating by hazard.
What does Prince William County's hazard record show?
Reading the federal records together
The NFIP claims register shows a middle-volume loss record here: 483 paid claims, totaling $5.8M. PlainHazard uses 50-499 claims for this descriptive band; FEMA does not publish it as a safety or coverage category. The $12.0K average describes payments on recorded claims only, leaving uninsured damage and properties without a claim outside the measure.
Start with the state benchmark: a Virginia county averages 20.4 federal declaration records, while Prince William County has 20. The gap is 2% below that mean. Fewer entries indicate a quieter history of recorded federal actions, not immunity from a hazard and not a prediction about what happens next.
FEMA National Risk Index
This county sits among the highest-risk counties nationally on FEMA's National Risk Index, a composite score of 83.2/100 (Relatively Moderate). Expected Annual Loss is rated Relatively Moderate (roughly $69.0M in annualized losses). Social vulnerability reads Very Low and community resilience Relatively Moderate, both critical modifiers of realized harm here. Among the 18 modeled hazards, Heat Wave carries the county's highest rating, a mid-range Relatively Moderate. FEMA's modeled frequency puts that hazard at 5.7 modeled event-days per year here, based on 96 historical events on record.
62 /100
Historical Activity Index
High historical activity
Prince William County, VA · PlainHazard-derived composite from federal records
This 0–100 index is an explicit PlainHazard composite from FEMA declaration history only on the county surface (this DB has no county-level NOAA damage row) . It is not FEMA's National Risk Index, not a forecast, and not a safety, insurance, or preparedness rating. Open the calculator · Methodology
FEMA Declarations (1953–present) Moderate
14/30
20 OpenFEMA declarations, full ingest window (1.0x national county average)
County Disaster Density Moderate
12/25
20 declarations (1.0x state county average of 20)
Major Disaster Share High
16/25
13 of 20 declarations are major disasters (65%)
Hazard Diversity Very High
20/20
8 different disaster types declared in Prince William County
FEMA NRI 8-hazard radar - Prince William County
How to read this radar
Each axis: NRI risk rating (Very Low-Very High) on a 0-100 scale. Rounder = broad exposure; spiky = one or two hazards dominate.
Major Disaster share
65%
Major-heavy
NRI risk score
83
Relatively Moderate
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Per-county per-hazard ratings, December 2025 release
How often does each hazard strike Prince William County?
FEMA's National Risk Index models a historical event count and an annualized frequency for each hazard type. Most hazards are expressed as modeled occurrences per year; FEMA expresses drought and heat-wave frequency as event-days per year. These modeled frequencies are not forecasts.
| Hazard | NRI Risk Rating | Recurrence |
|---|---|---|
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 5.7 modeled event-days per year |
| Lightning | Relatively High | an average of 41 times per year |
| Winter Weather | Relatively High | an average of 9.5 times per year |
| Strong Wind | Relatively High | an average of 7.1 times per year |
| Riverine Flooding | Relatively Moderate | an average of 3.4 times per year |
| Hurricane | Relatively Moderate | roughly once every 12 years |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | roughly once every 733 years |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | an average of 3.8 times per year |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | roughly once every 4 years |
| Landslide | Very Low | roughly once every 4 years |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | roughly once every 2 years |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 1.7 modeled event-days per year |
| Coastal Flooding | Relatively Low | an average of 3.7 times per year |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | an average of 1.4 times per year |
| Wildfire | Very Low | roughly once every 16,479 years |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Modeled annualized frequency; drought and heat wave use event-days/year, December 2025 release
Disaster Types
Hurricane 6
Snowstorm 5
Severe Storm 3
Biological 2
Winter Storm 1
Drought 1
Freezing 1
Flood 1
What Hurricane declarations mean here
Hurricane is the most frequent declaration type on Prince William County's federal record, 30% of its declarations. Atlantic tropical systems run on a defined season, 1 June to 30 November, with most activity concentrated between August and October; Pacific and territorial basins run on their own calendars. A single named storm routinely produces one declaration number covering a long corridor of counties at once, well inland as well as on the coast, which is why an affected county's count can jump by several in one year without several separate events having occurred.
One practical distinction matters when reading these records: a tropical declaration usually bundles wind, storm surge and inland rainfall flooding under a single incident, but the insurance behind them is split. Wind damage falls to property insurers, while flood and surge damage is covered only under a separate National Flood Insurance Program policy. That is why a county can show heavy declaration activity and a comparatively small NFIP claims record, or the reverse.
Declaration counts describe past federal action. They are a record of what was declared, not a forecast of future hazard probability.
Declaration Types
What DR / EM / FM mean
FEMA categorizes declarations as Major Disasters (DR), Emergencies (EM), or Fire Management Assistance (FM).
Major Disaster - 13 65.0%
of all 20 declarations
Emergency - 7 35.0%
of all 20 declarations
FEMA Declarations Timeline
| Year | Declarations | |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | |
| 2020 | 2 | |
| 2018 | 1 | |
| 2016 | 1 | |
| 2013 | 2 | |
| 2012 | 1 | |
| 2010 | 2 | |
| 2005 | 1 | |
| 2003 | 2 | |
| 2000 | 1 | |
| 1996 | 2 | |
| 1993 | 1 | |
| 1977 | 2 | |
| 1972 | 1 | |
Disaster Declarations
How the 20 FEMA declarations break into federal action codes (DR / EM / FM). Same DISTINCT grain as the table below.
Download these 20 declarations as CSV . FEMA source data is public domain; our derived presentation is CC0.
| DR# | Title | Type | Incident | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3631 | SEVERE WINTER STORM | EM | Winter Storm | 2026-01-23 |
| 4512 | COVID-19 PANDEMIC | DR | Biological | 2020-04-02 |
| 3448 | COVID-19 | EM | Biological | 2020-03-13 |
| 3403 | HURRICANE FLORENCE | EM | Hurricane | 2018-09-11 |
| 4262 | SEVERE WINTER STORM AND SNOWSTORM | DR | Snowstorm | 2016-03-07 |
| 4092 | HURRICANE SANDY | DR | Hurricane | 2012-11-26 |
| 3359 | HURRICANE SANDY | EM | Hurricane | 2012-10-29 |
| 4045 | THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM LEE | DR | Severe Storm | 2011-11-17 |
| 1905 | SEVERE WINTER STORMS AND SNOWSTORMS | DR | Snowstorm | 2010-04-27 |
| 1874 | SEVERE WINTER STORM AND SNOWSTORM | DR | Snowstorm | 2010-02-16 |
| 3240 | HURRICANE KATRINA EVACUATION | EM | Hurricane | 2005-09-12 |
| 1491 | HURRICANE ISABEL | DR | Hurricane | 2003-09-18 |
| 1458 | SEVERE WINTER STORM, RECORD/NEAR RECORD SNOWFALL, HEAVY RAIN,FLOODIND, AND MUDSLIDE | DR | Severe Storm | 2003-03-27 |
| 1318 | SEVERE WINTER STORMS | DR | Severe Storm | 2000-02-28 |
| 1135 | HURRICANE FRAN AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE STORM COND | DR | Hurricane | 1996-09-06 |
| 1086 | BLIZZARD OF 96 (SEVERE SNOW STORM) | DR | Snowstorm | 1996-01-13 |
| 3112 | SEVERE WINTER STORM | EM | Snowstorm | 1993-03-25 |
| 3046 | DROUGHT | EM | Drought | 1977-07-23 |
| 525 | ICE CONDITIONS | DR | Freezing | 1977-01-26 |
| 339 | TROPICAL STORM AGNES | DR | Flood | 1972-06-23 |
Storm Events in Virginia
Statewide NOAA context only. PlainHazard does not currently attribute these state totals to Prince William County.
| Storm Type | Events | Fatalities | Injuries | Property Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunderstorm Wind | 8,940 | 13 | 31 | $123.1M |
| Flood | 2,300 | 4 | 0 | $85.1M |
| Winter Weather | 2,049 | 6 | 32 | $902.0K |
| Flash Flood | 1,942 | 13 | 4 | $244.2M |
| Heavy Rain | 1,566 | 0 | 0 | $2.5M |
Source: NOAA Storm Events Database State-level aggregated data, 2015-2025
NFIP Flood Insurance Claims
Total Claims
483
Total Paid
$5.8M
Avg Per Claim
$12.0K
Source: FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA Claims Data
FEMA National Risk Index
Overall Risk
Relatively Moderate
Score: 83.2/100
Expected Annual Loss
Relatively Moderate
$69.0M/year
Social Vulnerability
Very Low
Community Resilience
Relatively Moderate
Hazard Risk Breakdown
Heat Wave Relatively Moderate
Lightning Relatively High
Winter Weather Relatively High
Strong Wind Relatively High
Riverine Flooding Relatively Moderate
Hurricane Relatively Moderate
Earthquake Relatively Low
Hail Relatively Moderate
Tornado Relatively Moderate
Landslide Very Low
Ice Storm Relatively Low
Drought Relatively Low
Coastal Flooding Relatively Low
Cold Wave Very Low
Wildfire Very Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) Ratings reflect relative scores among all US counties. Data: hazards.fema.gov/nri
The model's sharpest exposure here: Heat Wave
Heat Wave is measured in event-days per year rather than discrete events, and it is the hazard whose harm is most consistently undercounted: its toll is health and mortality, concentrated among people without cooling, rather than visible damage to property.
Worth noting for Prince William County: the model and the federal record do NOT point at the same hazard. Heat Wave carries the highest modeled rating (Relatively Moderate), while the county's declaration history is led by Hurricane. That is not a contradiction, the two measure genuinely different things. Declarations record federal ACTION, which requires damage costly enough to exceed state and local capacity; the Risk Index models EXPECTED annual loss across all 18 hazards whether or not any declaration ever followed. A hazard can be the county's largest modeled exposure and never once have driven a declaration.
National Risk Index ratings are modeled estimates of expected annual loss, not predictions of what will happen in any given year.
Data-matched county comparisons
Prince William County's closest FEMA peer: Shelby County, KY
Comparisons use published FEMA declaration fields plus the National Risk Index composite for Prince William County. Record similarity, not a safety rating.
Closest declaration profiles
Prince William County shows 20 FEMA declarations, led by Hurricane.
Similar Major-disaster share
Prince William County: 13 of 20 of its declarations are Major.
Similar modeled NRI score
Prince William County: NRI composite 83.2 (Relatively Moderate).
How these peers are chosen
Cohort: Published U.S. county equivalents outside the source state or territory. Each metric keeps six ETL candidates; three unique destinations are shown after de-duplicating across axes. Declaration-volume ranking combines count and Major-disaster share and prefers a different leading incident type; Major-share ranks the Major fraction adjusted for volume; NRI ranks the modeled composite score only.
Retained FEMA snapshot feed for Prince William County - capture-dated entries only.
Compare beyond this state
Nationwide peers by NRI score & FEMA declaration volume
Two PlainHazard-derived comparison paths for Prince William County: nearest out-of-state National Risk Index composite and nearest FEMA declaration count (floor ≥5 records). Record similarity only, not a forecast of the next hazard.
Similar NRI composite
Nearest out-of-state counties by FEMA NRI score. This county: 83.2 (Relatively Moderate).
Similar declaration volume
Nearest out-of-state counties by FEMA declaration count. This county: 20. NRI peers are excluded so the two link sets stay distinct.
Further reading for this county
Understanding disaster data
Prince William County's NFIP claims file (483 claims) and FEMA declaration history measure different federal records - this guide separates them from modeled NRI risk.
More PlainHazard guides
- Most disaster-prone counties - U.S. counties ranked by FEMA declaration totals.
- Understanding disaster data - declarations vs storm events vs NRI scores.
- Preparing for natural disasters - household checklist (not county-specific advice).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most common disaster type in Prince William County?
The most common disaster type in Prince William County is Hurricane, with 6 declarations. Other disaster types include Snowstorm (5), Severe Storm (3), Biological (2).
How does Prince William County's FEMA declaration record compare with the Virginia average?
The typical Virginia county has 20.4 FEMA declaration records; Prince William County has 20, or 2% fewer. Against the national county mean of 20.7, this county's total is 3% lower. The comparison is historical and says nothing about the probability of a future event.
How many major FEMA disaster declarations has Prince William County received?
Prince William County has received 13 major disaster declarations, representing 65% of all 20 disaster declarations.
How many flood insurance claims has Prince William County filed?
Prince William County has 483 National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims totaling $5.8M in payments, with an average of $12.0K per claim.
Does FEMA's top risk-rated hazard match the highest Expected Annual Loss in Prince William County?
No. In Prince William County, Heat Wave has the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively Moderate), while Riverine Flooding leads Expected Annual Loss at about $44.6M. FEMA's risk score and dollar-loss model use different inputs, so the leaders often differ.
What was the worst year for disasters in Prince William County?
The most active year for disaster declarations in Prince William County was 1977, with 2 declarations. The county has FEMA disaster data spanning 1972 to 2026.
What is the FEMA National Risk Index score for Prince William County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, Prince William County, Virginia has an overall risk score of 83.2 out of 100 (Relatively Moderate). Social vulnerability here rates Very Low, while community resilience comes in at Relatively Moderate. The Expected Annual Loss (EAL) score is Relatively Moderate, representing $69.0M in annualized losses.
Which natural hazard poses the greatest risk to Prince William County?
Based on FEMA NRI data, the highest-risk natural hazard in Prince William County as of the latest release is Heat Wave (risk rating: Relatively Moderate). Other significant hazards include Lightning (Relatively High) and Winter Weather (Relatively High). FEMA's modeled event frequency puts heat wave here at 5.7 modeled event-days per year, drawn from 96 historical events on record. FEMA derives these ratings from historical event frequency, the assets exposed, and the community's vulnerability profile.
Data Sources & Methodology
Disaster declaration data comes from the FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 API, which includes all federally declared disasters, emergencies, and fire management assistance grants.
Storm event data is sourced from the NOAA Storm Events Database (2015-2025), which tracks significant weather events including thunderstorms, tornadoes, floods, and winter storms.
Flood insurance data comes from the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA claims dataset.
This data is provided for informational purposes only. FEMA disaster declarations represent federal response actions and may not capture all local emergencies or weather events.
FEMA OpenFEMA declarations + NRI for Prince William County · vintage 2026-08-25 · Methodology · Virginia profile · Verify with FEMA OpenFEMA · Verify with NOAA Storm Events