FEMA Records
20
Above median
Virginia · FEMA + NOAA + National Risk Index
Stafford County, VA
20 FEMA disaster declarations (1972-2026), with a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Low. Most common hazard: Snowstorm.
- 20
- FEMA declarations
- 13
- Major disasters
- 65
- NRI risk · Relatively Low
- Snowstorm
- Top hazard
The verdict
Stafford County has a nationally busy FEMA history: 20 declarations, more than 46% of counties in this registry. But the state comparison tempers that reading: the total is 2% below the Virginia county mean. FEMA's separate National Risk Index places the county in the riskiest 35%; that score models loss and vulnerability rather than counting declarations.
- Riskiest 35%
- of U.S. counties for FEMA National Risk Index score
- Relatively Low
- FEMA National Risk Index rating
- 20
- FEMA declarations vs 21 national county avg
- 164
- NFIP flood insurance claims filed
FEMA's National Risk Index and its declaration registry are separate measures. This county's registry includes Major Disaster (DR) and Emergency (EM) records; an EM authorizes a narrower set of federal assistance than a DR.
FEMA OpenFEMA declaration desk
County FIPS 51179 · Stafford County 20 declarations · rank 1675/3,266
DECL-HEAVY · MAJOR-MID · RANK-LOWER · PHOTO-FINISH · NRI-LOW · ACT-HIGH · TYPE-LEAD · VS-ST-BELOW
- DECL-HEAVY 20
- MAJOR-MID 65%
- RANK-LOWER #1,675
- PHOTO-FINISH Monona
- NRI-LOW 65
- ACT-HIGH High
- TYPE-LEAD Snowstorm
- VS-ST-BELOW -2%
Nearest declaration peer: Monona, IA (0 declaration gap)
FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 filing stamps for this county register. Read with this county → · Virginia state profile
Stafford County in the declaration-count neighbourhood
FEMA declaration records among Stafford County and nearest peers by total count
- Los Angeles · largest
Los Angeles · largest
88 declarations
- Cleveland · near 20
Cleveland · near
20 declarations
- Monona · near 20
Monona · near
20 declarations
- Stafford · this county 20
Stafford · this county
20 declarations
- Tallapoosa · near 20
Tallapoosa · near
20 declarations
- Ujelang · smallest 1
Ujelang · smallest
1 declarations
What this shows Stafford County carries 20 FEMA declaration records, ranked 1675 of 3,266 counties in this registry.
How Stafford County's FEMA declaration count compares nationally
Stafford County vs. all counties in this dataset
FEMA disaster declarations, all-time · Stafford County
20 46th percentile higher than 46% of 3,266 counties
Each bar is a band; taller bars hold more counties. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count, share, and where it sits relative to this entry.
Source FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 · 2026-08-25
Stafford County's FEMA Risk Index score
Which hazard drives modeled loss here?
FEMA's modeled annual dollar loss for Stafford County is led by Riverine Flooding (about $23.6M Expected Annual Loss, Historical Loss Ratio Relatively High), while Strong Wind carries the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively Moderate). EAL and risk score use different inputs; they need not agree.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025 release) - Expected Annual Loss vs composite risk rating by hazard.
What does Stafford County's hazard record show?
Reading the federal records together
The NFIP claims register shows a middle-volume loss record here: 164 paid claims, totaling $1.4M. PlainHazard uses 50-499 claims for this descriptive band; FEMA does not publish it as a safety or coverage category. The $8.3K average describes payments on recorded claims only, leaving uninsured damage and properties without a claim outside the measure.
Start with the state benchmark: a Virginia county averages 20.4 federal declaration records, while Stafford County has 20. The gap is 2% below that mean. Fewer entries indicate a quieter history of recorded federal actions, not immunity from a hazard and not a prediction about what happens next.
FEMA National Risk Index
This county carries a high composite score on FEMA's National Risk Index, 65.0/100, rated Relatively Low. Its Expected Annual Loss rating is Relatively Low (roughly $35.2M in annualized losses), and a Very Low social-vulnerability profile combined with Relatively Moderate community resilience shapes how much of that raw exposure becomes realized harm. Among the 18 modeled hazards, Strong Wind carries the county's highest rating, a mid-range Relatively Moderate. FEMA's modeled frequency puts that hazard at an average of 6.3 times per year here, based on 241 historical events on record.
62 /100
Historical Activity Index
High historical activity
Stafford County, VA · PlainHazard-derived composite from federal records
This 0–100 index is an explicit PlainHazard composite from FEMA declaration history only on the county surface (this DB has no county-level NOAA damage row) . It is not FEMA's National Risk Index, not a forecast, and not a safety, insurance, or preparedness rating. Open the calculator · Methodology
FEMA Declarations (1953–present) Moderate
14/30
20 OpenFEMA declarations, full ingest window (1.0x national county average)
County Disaster Density Moderate
12/25
20 declarations (1.0x state county average of 20)
Major Disaster Share High
16/25
13 of 20 declarations are major disasters (65%)
Hazard Diversity Very High
20/20
8 different disaster types declared in Stafford County
FEMA NRI 8-hazard radar - Stafford County
How to read this radar
Each axis: NRI risk rating (Very Low-Very High) on a 0-100 scale. Rounder = broad exposure; spiky = one or two hazards dominate.
Major Disaster share
65%
Major-heavy
NRI risk score
65
Relatively Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Per-county per-hazard ratings, December 2025 release
How often does each hazard strike Stafford County?
FEMA's National Risk Index models a historical event count and an annualized frequency for each hazard type. Most hazards are expressed as modeled occurrences per year; FEMA expresses drought and heat-wave frequency as event-days per year. These modeled frequencies are not forecasts.
| Hazard | NRI Risk Rating | Recurrence |
|---|---|---|
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | an average of 6.3 times per year |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 6.1 modeled event-days per year |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | roughly once every 12 years |
| Riverine Flooding | Relatively Moderate | an average of 1.8 times per year |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | an average of 40 times per year |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | roughly once every 645 years |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | an average of 7.9 times per year |
| Hail | Relatively Low | an average of 3.7 times per year |
| Landslide | Very Low | roughly once every 3 years |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 2.4 modeled event-days per year |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | roughly once every 5 years |
| Coastal Flooding | Relatively Low | an average of 3.7 times per year |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | roughly once every 2 years |
| Wildfire | Very Low | roughly once every 11,057 years |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | an average of 1 time per year |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Modeled annualized frequency; drought and heat wave use event-days/year, December 2025 release
Disaster Types
Hurricane 5
Snowstorm 5
Severe Storm 3
Biological 2
Flood 2
Winter Storm 1
Drought 1
Freezing 1
What Snowstorm declarations mean here
Snowstorm is the most frequent declaration type on Stafford County's record, 25% of its declarations. Snow-related declarations work on a narrower basis than most other hazards: they are generally issued to reimburse the cost of snow removal and emergency protective measures, rather than to repair destroyed property.
The qualifying test is unusual too. FEMA assesses snowfall against record levels for the affected area, so the same storm total can qualify in a county where it is historically extreme and not qualify a few hundred miles north where it is an ordinary winter. A low snowstorm declaration count is therefore not evidence of mild winters.
Declaration counts describe past federal action. They are a record of what was declared, not a forecast of future hazard probability.
Declaration Types
What DR / EM / FM mean
FEMA categorizes declarations as Major Disasters (DR), Emergencies (EM), or Fire Management Assistance (FM).
Major Disaster - 13 65.0%
of all 20 declarations
Emergency - 7 35.0%
of all 20 declarations
FEMA Declarations Timeline
| Year | Declarations | |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | |
| 2022 | 1 | |
| 2020 | 2 | |
| 2018 | 1 | |
| 2016 | 1 | |
| 2013 | 1 | |
| 2012 | 1 | |
| 2010 | 2 | |
| 2005 | 1 | |
| 2003 | 1 | |
| 2000 | 1 | |
| 1996 | 2 | |
| 1993 | 1 | |
| 1986 | 1 | |
| 1977 | 2 | |
Show 1 earlier declaration years
| 1972 | 1 | |
Disaster Declarations
How the 20 FEMA declarations break into federal action codes (DR / EM / FM). Same DISTINCT grain as the table below.
Download these 20 declarations as CSV . FEMA source data is public domain; our derived presentation is CC0.
| DR# | Title | Type | Incident | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3631 | SEVERE WINTER STORM | EM | Winter Storm | 2026-01-23 |
| 4644 | SEVERE WINTER STORM AND SNOWSTORM | DR | Severe Storm | 2022-03-11 |
| 4512 | COVID-19 PANDEMIC | DR | Biological | 2020-04-02 |
| 3448 | COVID-19 | EM | Biological | 2020-03-13 |
| 3403 | HURRICANE FLORENCE | EM | Hurricane | 2018-09-11 |
| 4262 | SEVERE WINTER STORM AND SNOWSTORM | DR | Snowstorm | 2016-03-07 |
| 3359 | HURRICANE SANDY | EM | Hurricane | 2012-10-29 |
| 4072 | SEVERE STORMS AND STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS | DR | Severe Storm | 2012-07-27 |
| 1905 | SEVERE WINTER STORMS AND SNOWSTORMS | DR | Snowstorm | 2010-04-27 |
| 1874 | SEVERE WINTER STORM AND SNOWSTORM | DR | Snowstorm | 2010-02-16 |
| 3240 | HURRICANE KATRINA EVACUATION | EM | Hurricane | 2005-09-12 |
| 1491 | HURRICANE ISABEL | DR | Hurricane | 2003-09-18 |
| 1318 | SEVERE WINTER STORMS | DR | Severe Storm | 2000-02-28 |
| 1135 | HURRICANE FRAN AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE STORM COND | DR | Hurricane | 1996-09-06 |
| 1086 | BLIZZARD OF 96 (SEVERE SNOW STORM) | DR | Snowstorm | 1996-01-13 |
| 3112 | SEVERE WINTER STORM | EM | Snowstorm | 1993-03-25 |
| 755 | SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1985-11-09 |
| 3046 | DROUGHT | EM | Drought | 1977-07-23 |
| 525 | ICE CONDITIONS | DR | Freezing | 1977-01-26 |
| 339 | TROPICAL STORM AGNES | DR | Flood | 1972-06-23 |
Storm Events in Virginia
Statewide NOAA context only. PlainHazard does not currently attribute these state totals to Stafford County.
| Storm Type | Events | Fatalities | Injuries | Property Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunderstorm Wind | 8,940 | 13 | 31 | $123.1M |
| Flood | 2,300 | 4 | 0 | $85.1M |
| Winter Weather | 2,049 | 6 | 32 | $902.0K |
| Flash Flood | 1,942 | 13 | 4 | $244.2M |
| Heavy Rain | 1,566 | 0 | 0 | $2.5M |
Source: NOAA Storm Events Database State-level aggregated data, 2015-2025
NFIP Flood Insurance Claims
Total Claims
164
Total Paid
$1.4M
Avg Per Claim
$8.3K
Source: FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA Claims Data
FEMA National Risk Index
Overall Risk
Relatively Low
Score: 65.0/100
Expected Annual Loss
Relatively Low
$35.2M/year
Social Vulnerability
Very Low
Community Resilience
Relatively Moderate
Hazard Risk Breakdown
Strong Wind Relatively Moderate
Heat Wave Relatively Moderate
Hurricane Relatively Low
Riverine Flooding Relatively Moderate
Lightning Relatively Moderate
Earthquake Relatively Low
Winter Weather Relatively Moderate
Hail Relatively Low
Landslide Very Low
Drought Relatively Low
Tornado Relatively Low
Coastal Flooding Relatively Low
Ice Storm Relatively Low
Wildfire Very Low
Cold Wave Very Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) Ratings reflect relative scores among all US counties. Data: hazards.fema.gov/nri
The model's sharpest exposure here: Strong Wind
Strong Wind covers damaging non-thunderstorm, non-tornadic wind, the kind produced by steep pressure gradients and downslope events. It is a broad, frequent, low-drama hazard: roofs, signage, power lines and high-profile vehicles, spread across a wide area rather than concentrated on a path.
Worth noting for Stafford County: the model and the federal record do NOT point at the same hazard. Strong Wind carries the highest modeled rating (Relatively Moderate), while the county's declaration history is led by Snowstorm. That is not a contradiction, the two measure genuinely different things. Declarations record federal ACTION, which requires damage costly enough to exceed state and local capacity; the Risk Index models EXPECTED annual loss across all 18 hazards whether or not any declaration ever followed. A hazard can be the county's largest modeled exposure and never once have driven a declaration.
National Risk Index ratings are modeled estimates of expected annual loss, not predictions of what will happen in any given year.
Data-matched county comparisons
Stafford County's closest FEMA peer: Throckmorton County, TX
Comparisons use published FEMA declaration fields plus the National Risk Index composite for Stafford County. Record similarity, not a safety rating.
Closest declaration profiles
Stafford County shows 20 FEMA declarations, led by Snowstorm.
Similar Major-disaster share
Stafford County: 13 of 20 of its declarations are Major.
Similar modeled NRI score
Stafford County: NRI composite 65.0 (Relatively Low).
How these peers are chosen
Cohort: Published U.S. county equivalents outside the source state or territory. Each metric keeps six ETL candidates; three unique destinations are shown after de-duplicating across axes. Declaration-volume ranking combines count and Major-disaster share and prefers a different leading incident type; Major-share ranks the Major fraction adjusted for volume; NRI ranks the modeled composite score only.
Retained FEMA snapshot feed for Stafford County - capture-dated entries only.
Compare beyond this state
Nationwide peers by NRI score & FEMA declaration volume
Two PlainHazard-derived comparison paths for Stafford County: nearest out-of-state National Risk Index composite and nearest FEMA declaration count (floor ≥5 records). Record similarity only, not a forecast of the next hazard.
Similar NRI composite
Nearest out-of-state counties by FEMA NRI score. This county: 65.0 (Relatively Low).
Similar declaration volume
Nearest out-of-state counties by FEMA declaration count. This county: 20. NRI peers are excluded so the two link sets stay distinct.
Further reading for this county
Understanding disaster data
Stafford County's NFIP claims file (164 claims) and FEMA declaration history measure different federal records - this guide separates them from modeled NRI risk.
More PlainHazard guides
- Most disaster-prone counties - U.S. counties ranked by FEMA declaration totals.
- Understanding disaster data - declarations vs storm events vs NRI scores.
- Preparing for natural disasters - household checklist (not county-specific advice).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most common disaster type in Stafford County?
The most common disaster type in Stafford County is Snowstorm, with 5 declarations. Other disaster types include Hurricane (5), Severe Storm (3), Biological (2).
How does Stafford County's FEMA declaration record compare with the Virginia average?
The typical Virginia county has 20.4 FEMA declaration records; Stafford County has 20, or 2% fewer. Against the national county mean of 20.7, this county's total is 3% lower. The comparison is historical and says nothing about the probability of a future event.
How many major FEMA disaster declarations has Stafford County received?
Stafford County has received 13 major disaster declarations, representing 65% of all 20 disaster declarations.
How many flood insurance claims has Stafford County filed?
Stafford County has 164 National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims totaling $1.4M in payments, with an average of $8.3K per claim.
Does FEMA's top risk-rated hazard match the highest Expected Annual Loss in Stafford County?
No. In Stafford County, Strong Wind has the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively Moderate), while Riverine Flooding leads Expected Annual Loss at about $23.6M. FEMA's risk score and dollar-loss model use different inputs, so the leaders often differ.
What was the worst year for disasters in Stafford County?
The most active year for disaster declarations in Stafford County was 1977, with 2 declarations. The county has FEMA disaster data spanning 1972 to 2026.
What is the FEMA National Risk Index score for Stafford County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, Stafford County, Virginia has an overall risk score of 65.0 out of 100 (Relatively Low). Social vulnerability here rates Very Low, while community resilience comes in at Relatively Moderate. The Expected Annual Loss (EAL) score is Relatively Low, representing $35.2M in annualized losses.
Which natural hazard poses the greatest risk to Stafford County?
The top hazard flagged by FEMA's NRI for Stafford County is Strong Wind (risk rating: Relatively Moderate). Other significant hazards include Heat Wave (Relatively Moderate) and Hurricane (Relatively Low). FEMA's modeled event frequency puts strong wind here at an average of 6.3 times per year, drawn from 241 historical events on record. FEMA derives these ratings from historical event frequency, the assets exposed, and the community's vulnerability profile.
Data Sources & Methodology
Disaster declaration data comes from the FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 API, which includes all federally declared disasters, emergencies, and fire management assistance grants.
Storm event data is sourced from the NOAA Storm Events Database (2015-2025), which tracks significant weather events including thunderstorms, tornadoes, floods, and winter storms.
Flood insurance data comes from the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA claims dataset.
This data is provided for informational purposes only. FEMA disaster declarations represent federal response actions and may not capture all local emergencies or weather events.
FEMA OpenFEMA declarations + NRI for Stafford County · vintage 2026-08-25 · Methodology · Virginia profile · Verify with FEMA OpenFEMA · Verify with NOAA Storm Events