FEMA Records
19
Below median
Virginia · FEMA + NOAA + National Risk Index
Fredericksburg (city), VA
19 FEMA disaster declarations (1972-2026), with a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Very Low. Most common hazard: Snowstorm.
- 19
- FEMA declarations
- 13
- Major disasters
- 9
- NRI risk · Very Low
- Snowstorm
- Top hazard
The verdict
Fredericksburg (city) has a nationally busy FEMA history: 19 declarations, more than 41% of counties in this registry. But the state comparison tempers that reading: the total is 7% below the Virginia county mean. FEMA's separate National Risk Index places the county safer than 9%; that score models loss and vulnerability rather than counting declarations.
- Safer than 9%
- of U.S. counties for FEMA National Risk Index score
- Very Low
- FEMA National Risk Index rating
- 19
- FEMA declarations vs 21 national county avg
- 44
- NFIP flood insurance claims filed
FEMA's National Risk Index and its declaration registry are separate measures. This county's registry includes Major Disaster (DR) and Emergency (EM) records; an EM authorizes a narrower set of federal assistance than a DR.
How does Fredericksburg (city) compare?
Fredericksburg (city) vs. all counties in this dataset
FEMA disaster declarations, all-time
19 41st percentile higher than 41% of 3,266 counties
Each bar is a band; taller bars hold more counties. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count, share, and where it sits relative to this entry.
Source FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 · 2026-08-03
Fredericksburg (city)'s FEMA Risk Index score
FEMA National Risk Index composite score vs. the Virginia county average
Which hazard drives modeled loss here?
FEMA's modeled annual dollar loss for Fredericksburg (city) is led by Riverine Flooding (about $3.9M Expected Annual Loss, Historical Loss Ratio Relatively Moderate), while Lightning carries the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively Moderate). EAL and risk score use different inputs; they need not agree.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025 release) - Expected Annual Loss vs composite risk rating by hazard.
What does Fredericksburg (city)'s hazard record show?
Declaration frequency
Nationally, Fredericksburg (city)'s 19 FEMA records form a high-volume history; within Virginia, however, the count is 7% below the county mean. 13 entries carry the Major Disaster classification. The largest incident group is Snowstorm, appearing 6 times. The full 54-year record averages 0.4 declarations annually. A DR label alone does not say whether Individual Assistance, Public Assistance, or both followed.
FEMA National Risk Index
FEMA's National Risk Index places this county in the low end of the national distribution, composite score 8.7/100 (Very Low). Expected Annual Loss is rated Very Low (roughly $6.8M in annualized losses). Two modifiers shape how that exposure becomes real-world harm here: social vulnerability (Very Low) and community resilience (Very High). Among the 18 modeled hazards, Lightning carries the county's highest rating, a mid-range Relatively Moderate. FEMA's modeled frequency puts that hazard at an average of 40 times per year here, based on 19,958 historical events on record.
Reading the federal records together
This county has a small entry in FEMA's NFIP paid-claims table: 44 claims and $259.1K paid in total. PlainHazard calls 1-49 claims a light registry record, a label for this dataset rather than a finding that flood exposure is low. A short claims history can also reflect insurance take-up, the period covered, or losses that were never insured.
Start with the state benchmark: a Virginia county averages 20.4 federal declaration records, while Fredericksburg (city) has 19. The gap is 7% below that mean. Fewer entries indicate a quieter history of recorded federal actions, not immunity from a hazard and not a prediction about what happens next.
61 /100
Historical Activity Index
High historical activity
Fredericksburg (city), VA · PlainHazard-derived composite from federal records
This 0–100 index is an explicit PlainHazard composite from FEMA declaration history only on the county surface (this DB has no county-level NOAA damage row) . It is not FEMA's National Risk Index, not a forecast, and not a safety, insurance, or preparedness rating. Open the calculator · Methodology
FEMA Declarations (1953–present) Moderate
14/30
19 OpenFEMA declarations, full ingest window (0.9x national county average)
County Disaster Density Moderate
12/25
19 declarations (0.9x state county average of 20)
Major Disaster Share High
17/25
13 of 19 declarations are major disasters (68%)
Hazard Diversity Very High
18/20
7 different disaster types declared in Fredericksburg (city)
Historical Declaration Activity
Activity Band
High
vs. Virginia Avg
-7%
State avg: 20.4
vs. National Avg
-8%
National avg: 20.7
Avg Per Year
0.4
Over 54 years
FEMA NRI 8-hazard radar - Fredericksburg (city)
How to read this radar
Each axis: NRI risk rating (Very Low-Very High) on a 0-100 scale. Rounder = broad exposure; spiky = one or two hazards dominate.
Major Disaster share
68%
Major-heavy
NRI risk score
9
Very Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Per-county per-hazard ratings, December 2025 release
How often does each hazard strike Fredericksburg (city)?
FEMA's National Risk Index models a historical event count and an annualized frequency for each hazard type. Most hazards are expressed as modeled occurrences per year; FEMA expresses drought and heat-wave frequency as event-days per year. These modeled frequencies are not forecasts.
| Hazard | NRI Risk Rating | Recurrence |
|---|---|---|
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | an average of 40 times per year |
| Hurricane | Very Low | roughly once every 12 years |
| Earthquake | Very Low | roughly once every 640 years |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 5.9 modeled event-days per year |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | an average of 5 times per year |
| Tornado | Very Low | roughly once every 143 years |
| Hail | Very Low | an average of 3.5 times per year |
| Riverine Flooding | Very Low | roughly once every 1 years |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | an average of 7.3 times per year |
| Coastal Flooding | Very Low | roughly once every 6 years |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | roughly once every 2 years |
| Landslide | Very Low | roughly once every 87 years |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | roughly once every 1 years |
| Wildfire | Very Low | roughly once every 53,073 years |
| Drought | No Rating | 3.1 modeled event-days per year |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Modeled annualized frequency; drought and heat wave use event-days/year, December 2025 release
Disaster Types
Snowstorm 6
Hurricane 5
Severe Storm 3
Biological 2
Winter Storm 1
Earthquake 1
Flood 1
What Snowstorm declarations mean here
Snowstorm is the most frequent declaration type on Fredericksburg (city)'s record, 32% of its declarations. Snow-related declarations work on a narrower basis than most other hazards: they are generally issued to reimburse the cost of snow removal and emergency protective measures, rather than to repair destroyed property.
The qualifying test is unusual too. FEMA assesses snowfall against record levels for the affected area, so the same storm total can qualify in a county where it is historically extreme and not qualify a few hundred miles north where it is an ordinary winter. A low snowstorm declaration count is therefore not evidence of mild winters.
Declaration counts describe past federal action. They are a record of what was declared, not a forecast of future hazard probability.
Declaration Types
What DR / EM / FM mean
FEMA categorizes declarations as Major Disasters (DR), Emergencies (EM), or Fire Management Assistance (FM).
Major Disaster - 13 68.4%
of all 19 declarations
Emergency - 6 31.6%
of all 19 declarations
FEMA Declarations Timeline
| Year | Declarations | |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | |
| 2022 | 1 | |
| 2020 | 2 | |
| 2018 | 1 | |
| 2016 | 1 | |
| 2013 | 1 | |
| 2012 | 2 | |
| 2010 | 2 | |
| 2005 | 1 | |
| 2003 | 1 | |
| 2000 | 1 | |
| 1996 | 2 | |
| 1994 | 1 | |
| 1993 | 1 | |
| 1972 | 1 | |
Disaster Declarations
How the 19 FEMA declarations break into federal action codes (DR / EM / FM). Same DISTINCT grain as the table below.
Download these 19 declarations as CSV . FEMA source data is public domain; our derived presentation is CC0.
| DR# | Title | Type | Incident | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3631 | SEVERE WINTER STORM | EM | Winter Storm | 2026-01-23 |
| 4644 | SEVERE WINTER STORM AND SNOWSTORM | DR | Severe Storm | 2022-03-11 |
| 4512 | COVID-19 PANDEMIC | DR | Biological | 2020-04-02 |
| 3448 | COVID-19 | EM | Biological | 2020-03-13 |
| 3403 | HURRICANE FLORENCE | EM | Hurricane | 2018-09-11 |
| 4262 | SEVERE WINTER STORM AND SNOWSTORM | DR | Snowstorm | 2016-03-07 |
| 3359 | HURRICANE SANDY | EM | Hurricane | 2012-10-29 |
| 4072 | SEVERE STORMS AND STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS | DR | Severe Storm | 2012-07-27 |
| 4042 | EARTHQUAKE | DR | Earthquake | 2011-11-04 |
| 1905 | SEVERE WINTER STORMS AND SNOWSTORMS | DR | Snowstorm | 2010-04-27 |
| 1874 | SEVERE WINTER STORM AND SNOWSTORM | DR | Snowstorm | 2010-02-16 |
| 3240 | HURRICANE KATRINA EVACUATION | EM | Hurricane | 2005-09-12 |
| 1491 | HURRICANE ISABEL | DR | Hurricane | 2003-09-18 |
| 1318 | SEVERE WINTER STORMS | DR | Severe Storm | 2000-02-28 |
| 1135 | HURRICANE FRAN AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE STORM COND | DR | Hurricane | 1996-09-06 |
| 1086 | BLIZZARD OF 96 (SEVERE SNOW STORM) | DR | Snowstorm | 1996-01-13 |
| 1014 | SEVERE ICE STORMS, FLOODING | DR | Snowstorm | 1994-03-10 |
| 3112 | SEVERE WINTER STORM | EM | Snowstorm | 1993-03-25 |
| 339 | TROPICAL STORM AGNES | DR | Flood | 1972-06-23 |
Storm Events in Virginia
Statewide NOAA context only. PlainHazard does not currently attribute these state totals to Fredericksburg (city).
| Storm Type | Events | Fatalities | Injuries | Property Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunderstorm Wind | 8,940 | 13 | 31 | $123.1M |
| Flood | 2,300 | 4 | 0 | $85.1M |
| Winter Weather | 2,049 | 6 | 32 | $902.0K |
| Flash Flood | 1,942 | 13 | 4 | $244.2M |
| Heavy Rain | 1,566 | 0 | 0 | $2.5M |
Source: NOAA Storm Events Database State-level aggregated data, 2015-2025
NFIP Flood Insurance Claims
Total Claims
44
Total Paid
$259.1K
Avg Per Claim
$5.9K
Source: FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA Claims Data
FEMA National Risk Index
Overall Risk
Very Low
Score: 8.7/100
Expected Annual Loss
Very Low
$6.8M/year
Social Vulnerability
Very Low
Community Resilience
Very High
Hazard Risk Breakdown
Lightning Relatively Moderate
Hurricane Very Low
Earthquake Very Low
Heat Wave Relatively Low
Strong Wind Relatively Low
Tornado Very Low
Hail Very Low
Riverine Flooding Very Low
Winter Weather Very Low
Coastal Flooding Very Low
Ice Storm Very Low
Landslide Very Low
Cold Wave Very Low
Wildfire Very Low
Drought No Rating
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) Ratings reflect relative scores among all US counties. Data: hazards.fema.gov/nri
The model's sharpest exposure here: Lightning
Lightning is modeled as a high-frequency, low-per-event hazard: strike counts are large, but each strike affects a very small area. Its aggregate cost accumulates through structure fires, electrical and electronic damage, and it is one of the few hazards whose risk is essentially continuous through the season rather than episodic.
Worth noting for Fredericksburg (city): the model and the federal record do NOT point at the same hazard. Lightning carries the highest modeled rating (Relatively Moderate), while the county's declaration history is led by Snowstorm. That is not a contradiction, the two measure genuinely different things. Declarations record federal ACTION, which requires damage costly enough to exceed state and local capacity; the Risk Index models EXPECTED annual loss across all 18 hazards whether or not any declaration ever followed. A hazard can be the county's largest modeled exposure and never once have driven a declaration.
National Risk Index ratings are modeled estimates of expected annual loss, not predictions of what will happen in any given year.
Data-matched county comparisons
Fredericksburg (city)'s closest FEMA peer: Onondaga County, NY
Comparisons use published FEMA declaration fields plus the National Risk Index composite for Fredericksburg (city). Record similarity, not a safety rating.
Closest declaration profiles
Fredericksburg (city) shows 19 FEMA declarations, led by Snowstorm.
Similar Major-disaster share
Fredericksburg (city): 13 of 19 of its declarations are Major.
Similar modeled NRI score
Fredericksburg (city): NRI composite 8.7 (Very Low).
How these peers are chosen
Cohort: Published U.S. county equivalents outside the source state or territory. Each metric keeps six ETL candidates; three unique destinations are shown after de-duplicating across axes. Declaration-volume ranking combines count and Major-disaster share and prefers a different leading incident type; Major-share ranks the Major fraction adjusted for volume; NRI ranks the modeled composite score only.
Retained FEMA snapshot feed for Fredericksburg (city) - capture-dated entries only.
Further reading for this county
Most disaster-prone counties
With 19 FEMA declarations, Fredericksburg (city) sits in the high-volume declaration band - see how that count ranks against other U.S. counties.
More PlainHazard guides
- Most disaster-prone counties - U.S. counties ranked by FEMA declaration totals.
- Understanding disaster data - declarations vs storm events vs NRI scores.
- Preparing for natural disasters - household checklist (not county-specific advice).
Related
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most common disaster type in Fredericksburg (city)?
The most common disaster type in Fredericksburg (city) is Snowstorm, with 6 declarations. Other disaster types include Hurricane (5), Severe Storm (3), Biological (2).
How does Fredericksburg (city)'s FEMA declaration record compare with the Virginia average?
The typical Virginia county has 20.4 FEMA declaration records; Fredericksburg (city) has 19, or 7% fewer. Against the national county mean of 20.7, this county's total is 8% lower. The comparison is historical and says nothing about the probability of a future event.
How many major FEMA disaster declarations has Fredericksburg (city) received?
Fredericksburg (city) has received 13 major disaster declarations, representing 68% of all 19 disaster declarations.
How many flood insurance claims has Fredericksburg (city) filed?
Fredericksburg (city) has 44 National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims totaling $259.1K in payments, with an average of $5.9K per claim.
Does FEMA's top risk-rated hazard match the highest Expected Annual Loss in Fredericksburg (city)?
No. In Fredericksburg (city), Lightning has the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively Moderate), while Riverine Flooding leads Expected Annual Loss at about $3.9M. FEMA's risk score and dollar-loss model use different inputs, so the leaders often differ.
What was the worst year for disasters in Fredericksburg (city)?
The most active year for disaster declarations in Fredericksburg (city) was 1996, with 2 declarations. The county has FEMA disaster data spanning 1972 to 2026.
What is the FEMA National Risk Index score for Fredericksburg (city)?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, Fredericksburg (city), Virginia has an overall risk score of 8.7 out of 100 (Very Low). On social vulnerability the county rates Very Low; on community resilience, Very High. The Expected Annual Loss (EAL) score is Very Low, representing $6.8M in annualized losses.
Which natural hazard poses the greatest risk to Fredericksburg (city)?
FEMA's NRI data points to Fredericksburg (city) as of the latest release is Lightning (risk rating: Relatively Moderate). Other significant hazards include Hurricane (Very Low) and Earthquake (Very Low). FEMA's modeled event frequency puts lightning here at an average of 40 times per year, drawn from 19,958 historical events on record. FEMA derives these ratings from historical event frequency, the assets exposed, and the community's vulnerability profile.
Data Sources & Methodology
Disaster declaration data comes from the FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 API, which includes all federally declared disasters, emergencies, and fire management assistance grants.
Storm event data is sourced from the NOAA Storm Events Database (2015-2025), which tracks significant weather events including thunderstorms, tornadoes, floods, and winter storms.
Flood insurance data comes from the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA claims dataset.
This data is provided for informational purposes only. FEMA disaster declarations represent federal response actions and may not capture all local emergencies or weather events.
What this means for Fredericksburg (city)
Against a Virginia county mean of 20 declarations, Fredericksburg (city), VA records 19, or 7% fewer. PlainHazard classifies that historical total as high activity.
- Major Disaster is the largest group (13 of 19) in a declaration history that remains below its state benchmark; frequency here is not a forecast. Virginia overview
- Nationally the county exceeds 41% of recorded county totals, but its own Virginia benchmark is higher. The ranking keeps those two contexts separate. Most-disaster rankings
- A short NFIP claims file cannot establish low flood exposure; the data guide explains the limits of each federal measure. Disaster-data guide
A below-average federal record is not a safety guarantee. Use National Weather Service alerts and local emergency-management notices for present conditions, not this historical comparison.
PlainHazard derives this profile from FEMA's Disaster Declarations Summaries and National Risk Index data. The declaration comparison covers 3,266 U.S. counties and county equivalents in this database, refreshed as of 2026-08-03. Read our methodology - how this data is sourced, computed, and verified.
All federal data sources used on this page
- FEMA OpenFEMA, Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 - all federally-declared disasters for this county. fema.gov/openfema/disaster-declarations
- FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) - per-county per-hazard risk ratings and expected annual loss. hazards.fema.gov/nri
- NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database - state-level storm/severe-weather event records, 2015-2025. ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents
Data sourced from official public datasets. See our methodology for details. Retrieved and formatted by PlainHazard Editorial
Verify with FEMA → · Verify with FEMA NRI → · Verify with NOAA →
Every figure on PlainHazard is rendered directly from FEMA federal disaster data, no number is typed in by an editor. See our editorial standards & corrections policy, the methodology behind these numbers, or national statistics report, the data & editorial changelog, or report a data error.