Caroline County, Virginia
County storm and disaster record · FIPS 51033 · population 30,855 · 527 sq mi
NOAA's Storm Events Database holds 433 records for Caroline County, Virginia from 1950 through June 30, 2026, on 320 days; the most frequent are severe thunderstorm wind events (205 records). The most damaging was the October 1, 1998 drought ($4.5 million in 2025 dollars). FEMA has issued 24 declarations naming the county since 1969, 22 of them for natural hazards; the latest for a natural hazard was “Severe Winter Storm” on January 23, 2026.
The record, 1950 to 2026
Storm records filed for the county each year (2026 to June 30, 2026). Before 1996 NOAA recorded only tornadoes (from 1950), thunderstorm wind and hail (from 1955).
- recorded, no damage figure
- under $100,000
- $100,000 or more
- $1 million or more
- $10 million or more, or a death
- $100 million or more, or 10 deaths
- a year's colour: its recorded damage or deaths
- a year with a death
- 1955: wind and hail recorded from 1955
- 1996: all 48 event types from 1996
- Storm records
- 433on 320 days, 1950 to June 30, 2026
- Deaths recorded
- 06 injuries
- Damage, 2025 dollars
- $9.2Mas filed (scale steps before 1993)
- Tornadoes
- 15strongest F2
- FEMA declarations
- 24latest 2026
Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, records through June 30, 2026 (file revision 20260918); damage converted to 2025 dollars with the BLS CPI-U. Search the record at NCEI. BLS consumer price index.
What hazards hit Caroline County most?
The most frequent records are severe thunderstorm wind events: 205 since 1956. 52% of its severe thunderstorm wind events since 1956 fell in June and July. The rank column places the county among Virginia's counties by days with a record per 1,000 square miles of land over each hazard's complete period.
| Hazard | Records | Days | First, last | Killed | Injured | Damage | Rank in state |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Severe thunderstorm wind | 205 | 128 | 1956-2026 | 0 | 1 | $1.1M | 68 of 96 |
| Winter storms | 109 | 109 | 1996-2025 | 0 | 0 | $143K | 59 of 96 |
| Hail | 32 | 21 | 1958-2023 | 0 | 0 | $34K | 91 of 96 |
| Heavy rain | 30 | 27 | 1998-2024 | 0 | 0 | – | 38 of 96 |
| Floods | 24 | 22 | 1996-2025 | 0 | 0 | $216K | 88 of 96 |
| Tornadoes | 15 | 12 | 1975-2024 | 0 | 3 | $1.2M | 39 of 96 |
| Heat | 4 | 4 | 1996-2025 | 0 | 0 | – | 64 of 96 |
| High wind and dust storms | 4 | 4 | 1999-2018 | 0 | 0 | $36K | 85 of 96 |
| Extreme cold | 3 | 3 | 2003-2016 | 0 | 0 | – | 88 of 96 |
| Drought | 2 | 2 | 1998-1998 | 0 | 0 | $6.3M | 74 of 96 |
| Hurricanes and tropical storms | 2 | 2 | 2003-2011 | 0 | 0 | $164K | 47 of 96 |
| Fog, smoke and funnel clouds | 2 | 2 | 2010-2011 | 0 | 0 | – | 48 of 96 |
| Lightning | 1 | 1 | 2001-2001 | 0 | 2 | – | 75 of 96 |
Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database (county and forecast-zone records attributed to the county; a zone record shows its own totals on each county it covers). Days: dates with at least one record of the hazard in the county. Ranks: days with a record per 1,000 square miles of land (Census Bureau 2024 Gazetteer), since 1950 for tornadoes, 1955 for hail and thunderstorm wind, 1996 for the rest.
How many tornadoes has Caroline County had?
NOAA records 15 tornadoes in Caroline County from 1975 to 2024, the strongest rated F2, with 0 deaths and 3 injuries recorded in the county. That is 39th of 96 Virginia counties by days with tornadoes per 1,000 square miles since 1950. A tornado that crossed a county line is counted in each county it touched, with the length of its path inside the county.
Counted as whole tornadoes rather than county records, the Storm Prediction Center's database holds 15 tornadoes whose track touched Caroline County since 1950 (NOAA's county records number 15, the same count); along their whole tracks they killed 0 people.
Map of the strongest tornado tracks in Virginia.
Every tornado record filed for Caroline County (15)
| Date | Place | Character | Killed | Injured | Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-08 | Golansville, Caroline County | EF1 1.72 mi x 700 yd | 0 | 0 | $188K |
| 2022-11-11 | Tignor, Caroline County | EF0 1.49 mi x 150 yd | 0 | 0 | $50K |
| 2015-06-20 | Bowling Green, Caroline County | EF0 1.3 mi x 50 yd | 0 | 0 | $31K |
| 2011-04-27 | Ceder Fork, Caroline County | EF1 0.24 mi x 100 yd | 0 | 0 | $20K |
| 2008-04-20 | Sparta, Caroline County | EF0 0.5 mi x 50 yd | 0 | 0 | $21K |
| 2004-09-17 | Port Royal, Caroline County | F1 2 mi x 150 yd | 0 | 0 | $23K |
| 2004-09-17 | Golansville, Caroline County | F1 1.5 mi x 60 yd | 0 | 0 | $16K |
| 2004-09-17 | Dawn, Caroline County | F0 1 mi x 50 yd | 0 | 0 | $3K |
| 2004-09-17 | Guinea, Caroline County | F1 1.5 mi x 200 yd | 0 | 0 | $39K |
| 2004-09-08 | Bowling Green, Caroline County | F1 10 mi x 300 yd | 0 | 0 | $39K |
| 1998-04-01 | Ruther Glen, Caroline County | F2 4 mi x 200 yd | 0 | 1 | $362K |
| 1988-06-26 | Caroline County | F0 0.8 mi x 20 yd | 0 | 0 | – |
| 1977-08-12 | Caroline County | 0 | 1 | $25K step | |
| 1977-07-08 | Caroline County | 0 | 1 | $25K step | |
| 1975-03-24 | Caroline County | F1 0.5 mi x 200 yd | 0 | 0 | $25K step |
A damage figure marked "step" is a record from before 1993: NOAA then filed damage by category, and the figure is the category as entered, in the dollars of that year, not an estimate of the loss.
Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, tornado records by county (path length in the county, maximum width); ratings as published: F scale before February 1, 2007, EF scale after. Whole-track figures: NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database (1950-2025). SPC severe weather database.
When was the last damaging storm in Caroline County?
The most recent record with damage, injuries or deaths is the June 22, 2026 thunderstorm wind ($15,000 in damage in 2025 dollars).
| Date | Record | Character | Killed | Injured | Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | Thunderstorm WindRuther Glen, Caroline County | 50 kt wind | 0 | 0 | $15K |
| 2026-06-22 | Thunderstorm WindFarmers, Caroline County | 50 kt wind | 0 | 0 | $10K |
| 2026-06-22 | Thunderstorm WindLadysmith, Caroline County | 50 kt wind | 0 | 0 | $10K |
| 2026-06-14 | Thunderstorm WindFarmers, Caroline County | 50 kt wind | 0 | 0 | $5K |
| 2026-06-12 | Thunderstorm WindLadysmith, Caroline County | 50 kt wind | 0 | 0 | $250 |
| 2026-06-12 | Thunderstorm WindCedon, Caroline County | 50 kt wind | 0 | 0 | $2K |
| 2026-06-12 | Thunderstorm WindWoodford, Caroline County | 50 kt wind | 0 | 0 | $3K |
| 2026-03-16 | Thunderstorm WindAntioch Fork, Caroline County | 50 kt wind | 0 | 0 | $3K |
| 2025-07-27 | Thunderstorm WindRuther Glen, Caroline County | 50 kt wind | 0 | 0 | $1K |
| 2025-07-09 | Thunderstorm WindWhites, Caroline County | 50 kt wind | 0 | 0 | $1K |
| 2025-07-09 | Thunderstorm WindPassing, Caroline County | 50 kt wind | 0 | 0 | $1K |
| 2025-07-01 | Flash FloodLadysmith, Caroline County | 0 | 0 | – |
Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database; every record of 2025-2026 is listed, earlier ones when they caused deaths, injuries or $250,000 of damage (2025 dollars), and every tornado.
The deadliest and costliest records
| Date | Record | Character | Killed | Injured | Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001-07-26 | LightningBowling Green, Caroline County Two Boy Scouts were injured by lightning while at a campsite of the National Scout Jamboree. | 0 | 2 | – | |
| 1999-07-24 | Thunderstorm WindPort Royal, Caroline County Numerous trees were downed, causing structural damage to two homes and one injury when a tree fell on a car. Many trees were down along Highway 17 between Rappahannock Academy and Port Royal. | 0 | 1 | $35K | |
| 1998-04-01 | TornadoRuther Glen, Caroline County Supercell thunderstorm produced a tornado along a 9 mile path extending from near Coatesville in northwest Hanover county eastward into south central Caroline county southeast of Ruther Glen. The damage path was nearly continuous along this track, with damage intensity ranging from F0/F1 to strong F2/F3 in a couple of ... | F2 4 mi x 200 yd | 0 | 1 | $362K |
| 1977-08-12 | TornadoCaroline County | 0 | 1 | $25K step | |
| 1977-07-08 | TornadoCaroline County | 0 | 1 | $25K step |
A damage figure marked "step" is a record from before 1993: NOAA then filed damage by category, and the figure is the category as entered, in the dollars of that year, not an estimate of the loss.
| Date | Record | Character | Killed | Injured | Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998-10-01 | DroughtCaroline County · forecast zone Caroline | 0 | 0 | $4.5M | |
| 1998-04-01 | TornadoRuther Glen, Caroline County | F2 4 mi x 200 yd | 0 | 1 | $362K |
| 2024-08-08 | TornadoGolansville, Caroline County | EF1 1.72 mi x 700 yd | 0 | 0 | $188K |
| 2022-11-11 | TornadoTignor, Caroline County | EF0 1.49 mi x 150 yd | 0 | 0 | $50K |
| 2004-09-08 | TornadoBowling Green, Caroline County | F1 10 mi x 300 yd | 0 | 0 | $39K |
| 2004-09-17 | TornadoGuinea, Caroline County | F1 1.5 mi x 200 yd | 0 | 0 | $39K |
| 1999-07-24 | Thunderstorm WindPort Royal, Caroline County | 0 | 1 | $35K | |
| 2015-06-20 | TornadoBowling Green, Caroline County | EF0 1.3 mi x 50 yd | 0 | 0 | $31K |
Before 1993 NOAA filed damage by category, not amount, so the list above starts in 1993. The highest category filed here before then (entered as $25K, in the dollars of the day) holds: July 8, 1977 (tornado, Caroline County); August 12, 1977 (tornado, Caroline County); March 24, 1975 (tornado, Caroline County).
Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database: deaths and injuries direct and indirect; damage is property plus crops as estimated by the National Weather Service, converted to 2025 dollars.
Is it getting more frequent?
Records per decade for Caroline County's most frequent hazards. Counts rose everywhere after 1996, when NOAA began recording every event type, so compare decades within a hazard's complete period only (the shaded cells come before it).
| Hazard | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020-26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Severe thunderstorm wind | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 32 | 66 | 74 |
| Winter storms | – | – | – | – | 12 | 45 | 41 | 11 |
| Hail | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 5 | 3 |
| Heavy rain | – | – | – | – | 2 | 4 | 15 | 9 |
| Floods | – | – | – | – | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11 |
| Tornadoes | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 2 |
Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, records per calendar decade; zone records from the CZ_TYPE field (Z).
What time of year?
52% of its severe thunderstorm wind events since 1956 fell in June and July. The two busiest months are in violet.
The values, month by month
Jan 44 · Feb 38 · Mar 30 · Apr 27 · May 50 · Jun 89 · Jul 53 · Aug 44 · Sep 23 · Oct 9 · Nov 10 · Dec 16 (records).
Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, records by the month they began.
Federal disaster declarations for Caroline County
FEMA's register lists 24 declarations that include Caroline County: 17 major disasters, 7 emergencies and 0 fire management assistance declarations. Most were for hurricane (7) and snowstorm (6).
| Declared | Number | Type | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | EM-3631 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2022-03-11 | DR-4644 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| 2021-05-10 | DR-4602 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| 2020-04-02 | DR-4512 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020-03-13 | EM-3448 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2018-09-11 | EM-3403 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| 2016-03-07 | DR-4262 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| 2012-10-29 | EM-3359 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2011-11-17 | DR-4045 | Severe Storm | The Remnants of Tropical Storm Lee |
| 2011-09-03 | DR-4024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
| 2010-04-27 | DR-1905 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storms and Snowstorms |
| 2010-02-16 | DR-1874 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| 2006-09-22 | DR-1661 | Severe Storm | Tropical Depression Ernesto, Severe Storms and Flooding |
| 2005-09-12 | EM-3240 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| 2003-09-18 | DR-1491 | Hurricane | Hurricane Isabel |
| 2000-02-28 | DR-1318 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| 1999-09-18 | DR-1293 | Hurricane | Hurricane Floyd Major Disaster Declarations |
| 1996-01-13 | DR-1086 | Snowstorm | Blizzard of 96 (Severe Snow Storm) |
| 1994-04-11 | DR-1021 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Ice Storm |
| 1994-03-10 | DR-1014 | Snowstorm | Severe Ice Storms, Flooding |
| 1993-03-25 | EM-3112 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 1977-07-23 | EM-3046 | Drought | Drought |
| 1972-06-23 | DR-339 | Flood | Tropical Storm Agnes |
| 1969-08-23 | DR-274 | Hurricane | Severe Storms & Flooding |
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (v2), declarations through October 2, 2026; one declaration is counted once however many areas it names. OpenFEMA dataset page.
How many floods has Caroline County had?
NOAA's Storm Events Database holds 24 flood or flash flood records for Caroline County from 1996 to 2025, on 22 days, with 0 deaths. By flood insurance claims since 1978 (OpenFEMA, as of September 8, 2026), Caroline County ranks 2436th of 2,942 U.S. counties.
The National Flood Insurance Program has paid $42,000 on 8 claims filed in Caroline County; the most in one year was 2 in 1985. Claims count insured losses only: uninsured flood damage is not in this file.
The values, year by year
1979: 1 · 1985: 2 · 1996: 1 · 2004: 1 · 2010: 1 · 2014: 1 · 2020: 1; the other years: 0.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA NFIP Redacted Claims, as of September 8, 2026; claims by year of loss, payments in the dollars of the year paid. OpenFEMA dataset page.
FEMA's modeled risk for Caroline County
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Caroline County Very Low overall, with an expected annual loss of $8.3 million. These are FEMA's model estimates of future loss from 18 hazards, not a count of what happened; they can differ from the record above.
| Hazard | Risk rating | Expected annual loss | Modeled frequency |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | $926K | 4.2 modeled event-days a year |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | $1.8M | once in about 11 years (modeled) |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | $505K | once in about 447 years (modeled) |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | $246K | 4.5 modeled event-days a year |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | $163K | 40 a year (modeled) |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | $581K | once in about 3 years (modeled) |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | $306K | 4.2 a year (modeled) |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | $26K | 6.1 a year (modeled) |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, county table, December 2025 release. FEMA's National Risk Index map.
Counties that share a border with Caroline County
Source: U.S. Census Bureau county adjacency file; NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, records since 1950. The Census Bureau's adjacency file.
Next
- Tornadoes in VirginiaEvery Virginia tornado since 1950 and the counties with the most per square mile
- Severe thunderstorm wind in VirginiaThe state's severe thunderstorm wind events, by county, year and month
- The Virginia recordEvery hazard in the state, its deadliest events and its federal declarations
- FEMA's risk rating for each hazard in Caroline CountyThe hazard risk calculator: 18 hazards beside the county's record
- Download Caroline County's FEMA declarations (CSV)24 rows: every declaration that named the county, for your own analysis