FEMA Records
24
Above median
Virginia · FEMA + NOAA + National Risk Index
Caroline County, VA
24 FEMA disaster declarations (1969-2026), with a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Very Low. Most common hazard: Hurricane.
- 24
- FEMA declarations
- 17
- Major disasters
- 21
- NRI risk · Very Low
- Hurricane
- Top hazard
The verdict
Two federal records point in the busier direction for Caroline County. Its 24 FEMA declarations are 18% above the Virginia county mean and exceed the count for 66% of the 3,266 counties in this registry. Separately, FEMA's National Risk Index places it safer than 21%, based on modeled expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience.
- Safer than 21%
- of U.S. counties for FEMA National Risk Index score
- Very Low
- FEMA National Risk Index rating
- 24
- FEMA declarations vs 21 national county avg
- 8
- NFIP flood insurance claims filed
FEMA's National Risk Index and its declaration registry are separate measures. This county's registry includes Major Disaster (DR) and Emergency (EM) records; an EM authorizes a narrower set of federal assistance than a DR.
FEMA OpenFEMA declaration desk
County FIPS 51033 · Caroline County 24 declarations · rank 1036/3,266
DECL-HEAVY · MAJOR-MID · RANK-LOWER · PHOTO-FINISH · NRI-LOW · ACT-HIGH · TYPE-LEAD · VS-ST-ABOVE
- DECL-HEAVY 24
- MAJOR-MID 71%
- RANK-LOWER #1,036
- PHOTO-FINISH Eddy
- NRI-LOW Very Low
- ACT-HIGH High
- TYPE-LEAD Hurricane
- VS-ST-ABOVE +18%
Nearest declaration peer: Eddy, ND (0 declaration gap)
FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 filing stamps for this county register. Read with this county → · Virginia state profile
Caroline County in the declaration-count neighbourhood
FEMA declaration records among Caroline County and nearest peers by total count
- Los Angeles · largest
Los Angeles · largest
88 declarations
- Caroline · this county 24
Caroline · this county
24 declarations
- Deuel · near 24
Deuel · near
24 declarations
- Eddy · near 24
Eddy · near
24 declarations
- Wichita · near 24
Wichita · near
24 declarations
- Ujelang · smallest 1
Ujelang · smallest
1 declarations
What this shows Caroline County carries 24 FEMA declaration records, ranked 1036 of 3,266 counties in this registry.
How Caroline County's FEMA declaration count compares nationally
Caroline County vs. all counties in this dataset
FEMA disaster declarations, all-time · Caroline County
24 Top 34% higher than 66% of 3,266 counties
Each bar is a band; taller bars hold more counties. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count, share, and where it sits relative to this entry.
Source FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 · 2026-08-25
Caroline County's FEMA Risk Index score
Which hazard drives modeled loss here?
FEMA's modeled annual dollar loss for Caroline County is led by Riverine Flooding (about $3.5M Expected Annual Loss, Historical Loss Ratio Relatively Moderate), while Hurricane carries the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively Low). EAL and risk score use different inputs; they need not agree.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025 release) - Expected Annual Loss vs composite risk rating by hazard.
What does Caroline County's hazard record show?
FEMA National Risk Index
This county's FEMA National Risk Index composite lands at 20.7/100 (Very Low), a modest reading against the rest of the country. Expected Annual Loss is rated Very Low (roughly $8.3M in annualized losses), tempered or compounded by a Relatively Low social-vulnerability score and Relatively Moderate community-resilience score. Even the county's top-rated hazard, Hurricane, only reaches Relatively Low on FEMA's scale, none of the 18 modeled hazards stand out here. FEMA's modeled frequency puts that hazard at roughly once every 11 years here, based on 26 historical events on record.
Reading the federal records together
This county has a small entry in FEMA's NFIP paid-claims table: 8 claims and $42.2K paid in total. PlainHazard calls 1-49 claims a light registry record, a label for this dataset rather than a finding that flood exposure is low. A short claims history can also reflect insurance take-up, the period covered, or losses that were never insured.
The declaration register points in the busier direction. Caroline County's 24 federal records stand 18% above the Virginia county mean of 20.4. That comparison describes how often federal action was recorded, including any Major Disaster, Emergency, and Fire Management entries shown on this page; it does not convert the count into future probability.
70 /100
Historical Activity Index
High historical activity
Caroline County, VA · PlainHazard-derived composite from federal records
This 0–100 index is an explicit PlainHazard composite from FEMA declaration history only on the county surface (this DB has no county-level NOAA damage row) . It is not FEMA's National Risk Index, not a forecast, and not a safety, insurance, or preparedness rating. Open the calculator · Methodology
FEMA Declarations (1953–present) High
17/30
24 OpenFEMA declarations, full ingest window (1.2x national county average)
County Disaster Density High
15/25
24 declarations (1.2x state county average of 20)
Major Disaster Share High
18/25
17 of 24 declarations are major disasters (71%)
Hazard Diversity Very High
20/20
8 different disaster types declared in Caroline County
FEMA NRI 8-hazard radar - Caroline County
How to read this radar
Each axis: NRI risk rating (Very Low-Very High) on a 0-100 scale. Rounder = broad exposure; spiky = one or two hazards dominate.
Major Disaster share
71%
Major-heavy
NRI risk score
21
Very Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Per-county per-hazard ratings, December 2025 release
How often does each hazard strike Caroline County?
FEMA's National Risk Index models a historical event count and an annualized frequency for each hazard type. Most hazards are expressed as modeled occurrences per year; FEMA expresses drought and heat-wave frequency as event-days per year. These modeled frequencies are not forecasts.
| Hazard | NRI Risk Rating | Recurrence |
|---|---|---|
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | roughly once every 11 years |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 4.2 modeled event-days per year |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | roughly once every 447 years |
| Landslide | Very Low | roughly once every 2 years |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 4.5 modeled event-days per year |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | an average of 40 times per year |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | roughly once every 3 years |
| Hail | Very Low | an average of 3.2 times per year |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | an average of 4.2 times per year |
| Riverine Flooding | Very Low | roughly once every 2 years |
| Coastal Flooding | Very Low | an average of 3.8 times per year |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | an average of 6.1 times per year |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | roughly once every 2 years |
| Wildfire | Very Low | roughly once every 8,008 years |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | roughly once every 2 years |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Modeled annualized frequency; drought and heat wave use event-days/year, December 2025 release
Disaster Types
Hurricane 7
Snowstorm 6
Severe Storm 5
Biological 2
Winter Storm 1
Severe Ice Storm 1
Drought 1
Flood 1
What Hurricane declarations mean here
Hurricane is the most frequent declaration type on Caroline County's federal record, 29% of its declarations. Atlantic tropical systems run on a defined season, 1 June to 30 November, with most activity concentrated between August and October; Pacific and territorial basins run on their own calendars. A single named storm routinely produces one declaration number covering a long corridor of counties at once, well inland as well as on the coast, which is why an affected county's count can jump by several in one year without several separate events having occurred.
One practical distinction matters when reading these records: a tropical declaration usually bundles wind, storm surge and inland rainfall flooding under a single incident, but the insurance behind them is split. Wind damage falls to property insurers, while flood and surge damage is covered only under a separate National Flood Insurance Program policy. That is why a county can show heavy declaration activity and a comparatively small NFIP claims record, or the reverse.
Declaration counts describe past federal action. They are a record of what was declared, not a forecast of future hazard probability.
Declaration Types
What DR / EM / FM mean
FEMA categorizes declarations as Major Disasters (DR), Emergencies (EM), or Fire Management Assistance (FM).
Major Disaster - 17 70.8%
of all 24 declarations
Emergency - 7 29.2%
of all 24 declarations
FEMA Declarations Timeline
| Year | Declarations | |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | |
| 2022 | 1 | |
| 2021 | 1 | |
| 2020 | 2 | |
| 2018 | 1 | |
| 2016 | 1 | |
| 2013 | 1 | |
| 2012 | 1 | |
| 2011 | 1 | |
| 2010 | 2 | |
| 2006 | 1 | |
| 2005 | 1 | |
| 2003 | 1 | |
| 2000 | 1 | |
| 1999 | 1 | |
Show 6 earlier declaration years
| 1996 | 1 | |
| 1994 | 2 | |
| 1993 | 1 | |
| 1977 | 1 | |
| 1972 | 1 | |
| 1969 | 1 | |
Disaster Declarations
How the 24 FEMA declarations break into federal action codes (DR / EM / FM). Same DISTINCT grain as the table below.
Download these 24 declarations as CSV . FEMA source data is public domain; our derived presentation is CC0.
| DR# | Title | Type | Incident | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3631 | SEVERE WINTER STORM | EM | Winter Storm | 2026-01-23 |
| 4644 | SEVERE WINTER STORM AND SNOWSTORM | DR | Severe Storm | 2022-03-11 |
| 4602 | SEVERE WINTER STORMS | DR | Severe Ice Storm | 2021-05-10 |
| 4512 | COVID-19 PANDEMIC | DR | Biological | 2020-04-02 |
| 3448 | COVID-19 | EM | Biological | 2020-03-13 |
| 3403 | HURRICANE FLORENCE | EM | Hurricane | 2018-09-11 |
| 4262 | SEVERE WINTER STORM AND SNOWSTORM | DR | Snowstorm | 2016-03-07 |
| 3359 | HURRICANE SANDY | EM | Hurricane | 2012-10-29 |
| 4045 | THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM LEE | DR | Severe Storm | 2011-11-17 |
| 4024 | HURRICANE IRENE | DR | Hurricane | 2011-09-03 |
| 1905 | SEVERE WINTER STORMS AND SNOWSTORMS | DR | Snowstorm | 2010-04-27 |
| 1874 | SEVERE WINTER STORM AND SNOWSTORM | DR | Snowstorm | 2010-02-16 |
| 1661 | TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO, SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2006-09-22 |
| 3240 | HURRICANE KATRINA EVACUATION | EM | Hurricane | 2005-09-12 |
| 1491 | HURRICANE ISABEL | DR | Hurricane | 2003-09-18 |
| 1318 | SEVERE WINTER STORMS | DR | Severe Storm | 2000-02-28 |
| 1293 | HURRICANE FLOYD MAJOR DISASTER DECLARATIONS | DR | Hurricane | 1999-09-18 |
| 1086 | BLIZZARD OF 96 (SEVERE SNOW STORM) | DR | Snowstorm | 1996-01-13 |
| 1021 | SEVERE WINTER ICE STORM | DR | Severe Storm | 1994-04-11 |
| 1014 | SEVERE ICE STORMS, FLOODING | DR | Snowstorm | 1994-03-10 |
Show 4 earlier declaration records
| DR# | Title | Type | Incident | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3112 | SEVERE WINTER STORM | EM | Snowstorm | 1993-03-25 |
| 3046 | DROUGHT | EM | Drought | 1977-07-23 |
| 339 | TROPICAL STORM AGNES | DR | Flood | 1972-06-23 |
| 274 | SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING | DR | Hurricane | 1969-08-23 |
Storm Events in Virginia
Statewide NOAA context only. PlainHazard does not currently attribute these state totals to Caroline County.
| Storm Type | Events | Fatalities | Injuries | Property Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunderstorm Wind | 8,940 | 13 | 31 | $123.1M |
| Flood | 2,300 | 4 | 0 | $85.1M |
| Winter Weather | 2,049 | 6 | 32 | $902.0K |
| Flash Flood | 1,942 | 13 | 4 | $244.2M |
| Heavy Rain | 1,566 | 0 | 0 | $2.5M |
Source: NOAA Storm Events Database State-level aggregated data, 2015-2025
NFIP Flood Insurance Claims
Total Claims
8
Total Paid
$42.2K
Avg Per Claim
$5.3K
Source: FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA Claims Data
FEMA National Risk Index
Overall Risk
Very Low
Score: 20.7/100
Expected Annual Loss
Very Low
$8.3M/year
Social Vulnerability
Relatively Low
Community Resilience
Relatively Moderate
Hazard Risk Breakdown
Hurricane Relatively Low
Drought Relatively Moderate
Earthquake Relatively Low
Landslide Very Low
Heat Wave Relatively Low
Lightning Relatively Low
Tornado Relatively Low
Hail Very Low
Strong Wind Relatively Low
Riverine Flooding Very Low
Coastal Flooding Very Low
Winter Weather Relatively Low
Ice Storm Very Low
Wildfire Very Low
Cold Wave Very Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) Ratings reflect relative scores among all US counties. Data: hazards.fema.gov/nri
The model's sharpest exposure here: Hurricane
Hurricane exposure in the model bundles the three ways a tropical system does harm, which arrive on different timescales and are insured differently: wind, storm surge on the coast, and rainfall flooding that can reach far inland well after landfall.
For Caroline County the two measures on this page point the same way: Hurricane is the county's highest-rated modeled hazard (Relatively Low), and Hurricane declarations also lead its federal record. Where the model and the declaration history agree, the reading is comparatively straightforward, the hazard is both expected and repeatedly realised.
National Risk Index ratings are modeled estimates of expected annual loss, not predictions of what will happen in any given year.
Data-matched county comparisons
Caroline County's closest FEMA peer: Robertson County, KY
Comparisons use published FEMA declaration fields plus the National Risk Index composite for Caroline County. Record similarity, not a safety rating.
Closest declaration profiles
Caroline County shows 24 FEMA declarations, led by Hurricane.
Similar Major-disaster share
Caroline County: 17 of 24 of its declarations are Major.
Similar modeled NRI score
Caroline County: NRI composite 20.7 (Very Low).
How these peers are chosen
Cohort: Published U.S. county equivalents outside the source state or territory. Each metric keeps six ETL candidates; three unique destinations are shown after de-duplicating across axes. Declaration-volume ranking combines count and Major-disaster share and prefers a different leading incident type; Major-share ranks the Major fraction adjusted for volume; NRI ranks the modeled composite score only.
Retained FEMA snapshot feed for Caroline County - capture-dated entries only.
Compare beyond this state
Nationwide peers by NRI score & FEMA declaration volume
Two PlainHazard-derived comparison paths for Caroline County: nearest out-of-state National Risk Index composite and nearest FEMA declaration count (floor ≥5 records). Record similarity only, not a forecast of the next hazard.
Similar NRI composite
Nearest out-of-state counties by FEMA NRI score. This county: 20.7 (Very Low).
Similar declaration volume
Nearest out-of-state counties by FEMA declaration count. This county: 24. NRI peers are excluded so the two link sets stay distinct.
Further reading for this county
Most disaster-prone counties
With 24 FEMA declarations, Caroline County sits in the high-volume declaration band - see how that count ranks against other U.S. counties.
More PlainHazard guides
- Most disaster-prone counties - U.S. counties ranked by FEMA declaration totals.
- Understanding disaster data - declarations vs storm events vs NRI scores.
- Preparing for natural disasters - household checklist (not county-specific advice).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most common disaster type in Caroline County?
The most common disaster type in Caroline County is Hurricane, with 7 declarations. Other disaster types include Snowstorm (6), Severe Storm (5), Biological (2).
How does Caroline County's FEMA declaration record compare with the Virginia average?
FEMA lists 24 declaration records for Caroline County. That is 18% above the Virginia county mean of 20.4. Its count is also 16% above the national county mean of 20.7. A larger declaration history records more federal actions; it is not a forecast of the county's next hazard.
How many major FEMA disaster declarations has Caroline County received?
Caroline County has received 17 major disaster declarations, representing 71% of all 24 disaster declarations.
How many flood insurance claims has Caroline County filed?
Caroline County has 8 National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims totaling $42.2K in payments, with an average of $5.3K per claim.
Does FEMA's top risk-rated hazard match the highest Expected Annual Loss in Caroline County?
No. In Caroline County, Hurricane has the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively Low), while Riverine Flooding leads Expected Annual Loss at about $3.5M. FEMA's risk score and dollar-loss model use different inputs, so the leaders often differ.
What was the worst year for disasters in Caroline County?
The most active year for disaster declarations in Caroline County was 1994, with 2 declarations. The county has FEMA disaster data spanning 1969 to 2026.
What is the FEMA National Risk Index score for Caroline County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, Caroline County, Virginia has an overall risk score of 20.7 out of 100 (Very Low). Social vulnerability here rates Relatively Low, while community resilience comes in at Relatively Moderate. The Expected Annual Loss (EAL) score is Very Low, representing $8.3M in annualized losses.
Which natural hazard poses the greatest risk to Caroline County?
Based on FEMA NRI data, the highest-risk natural hazard in Caroline County as of the latest release is Hurricane (risk rating: Relatively Low). Other significant hazards include Drought (Relatively Moderate) and Earthquake (Relatively Low). FEMA's modeled event frequency puts hurricane here at roughly once every 11 years, drawn from 26 historical events on record. FEMA derives these ratings from historical event frequency, the assets exposed, and the community's vulnerability profile.
Data Sources & Methodology
Disaster declaration data comes from the FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 API, which includes all federally declared disasters, emergencies, and fire management assistance grants.
Storm event data is sourced from the NOAA Storm Events Database (2015-2025), which tracks significant weather events including thunderstorms, tornadoes, floods, and winter storms.
Flood insurance data comes from the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA claims dataset.
This data is provided for informational purposes only. FEMA disaster declarations represent federal response actions and may not capture all local emergencies or weather events.
FEMA OpenFEMA declarations + NRI for Caroline County · vintage 2026-08-25 · Methodology · Virginia profile · Verify with FEMA OpenFEMA · Verify with NOAA Storm Events