FEMA Records
3
Total declarations
Virginia · FEMA + NOAA + National Risk Index
Caroline County, VA
3 FEMA disaster declarations (2021–2026), with a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Very Low. Most common hazard: Winter Storm.
- 3
- FEMA declarations
- 2
- Major disasters
- 21
- NRI risk · Very Low
- Winter Storm
- Top hazard
FEMA's National Risk Index places Caroline County in the top 79% of U.S. counties for overall natural-hazard risk, and its FEMA disaster-declaration count is higher than 42% of all 2,729 counties tracked.
How does Caroline County compare?
- Caroline County
- 3
- Virginia county avg
- 2.2
- National county avg
- 3.7
How disaster-prone is Caroline County?
Caroline County, Virginia has recorded 3 FEMA disaster declarations between 2021 and 2026, of which 2 were classified as Major Disaster declarations (DR) requiring federal individual and public assistance. That puts the county's average at 0.6 declarations per year across a 5-year record, or roughly 36% above the Virginia county average of 2.2 and 20% below the national county average of 3.7.
The dominant disaster type on record is Winter Storm, with 1 of 3 declarations falling under this category. This county's FEMA National Risk Index composite lands at 20.7/100 (Very Low), a modest reading against the rest of the country. Expected Annual Loss is rated Very Low (roughly $8.3M in annualized losses), tempered or compounded by a Relatively Low social-vulnerability score and Relatively Moderate community-resilience score. Even the county's top-rated hazard, Hurricane, only reaches Relatively Low on FEMA's scale, none of the 18 modeled hazards stand out here.
Taken together, Caroline County reads as low relative risk on this historical lens, fewer federally recognized disasters than a typical U.S. county.
Risk Assessment
Risk Level
Low
vs. Virginia Avg
+36%
State avg: 2.2
vs. National Avg
-20%
National avg: 3.7
Avg Per Year
0.6
Over 5 years
FEMA NRI 8-hazard radar - Caroline County
How to read this radar
The radar plots Caroline County's relative exposure to the eight headline natural hazards used by the FEMA National Risk Index. Each axis is the qualitative NRI risk rating (Very Low through Very High) re-expressed on a 0-100 scale so that the polygon shape lets you compare a county against another at a glance. A rounder polygon means broad multi-hazard exposure; a spiky polygon means one or two dominant hazards drive most of the modeled risk.
NRI Source
FEMA 2023
Latest NRI release
County FIPS
51033
VA state code
Source: FEMA National Risk Index FEMA National Risk Index Per-county per-hazard ratings, 2023 release
Disaster Types
Winter Storm 1
Severe Storm 1
Severe Ice Storm 1
Declaration Types
What DR / EM / FM mean
FEMA categorizes declarations as Major Disasters (DR), Emergencies (EM), or Fire Management Assistance (FM).
Major Disaster - 2 66.7%
of all 3 declarations
Emergency - 1 33.3%
of all 3 declarations
FEMA Declarations Timeline
| Year | Declarations | |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | |
| 2022 | 1 | |
| 2021 | 1 | |
Disaster Declarations
| DR# | Title | Type | Incident | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3631 | SEVERE WINTER STORM | EM | Winter Storm | 2026-01-23 |
| 4644 | SEVERE WINTER STORM AND SNOWSTORM | DR | Severe Storm | 2022-03-11 |
| 4602 | SEVERE WINTER STORMS | DR | Severe Ice Storm | 2021-05-10 |
Storm Events in Virginia
| Storm Type | Events | Fatalities | Injuries | Property Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunderstorm Wind | 10,036 | 15 | 34 | $128.5M |
| Flash Flood | 2,427 | 15 | 4 | $261.2M |
| Flood | 2,400 | 4 | 0 | $85.1M |
| Winter Weather | 2,286 | 6 | 32 | $903.0K |
| Winter Storm | 1,583 | 5 | 6 | $3.5M |
Source: NOAA Storm Events Database NOAA Storm Events Database State-level aggregated data, 2015–2025
FEMA National Risk Index
Overall Risk
Very Low
Score: 20.7/100
Expected Annual Loss
Very Low
$8.3M/year
Social Vulnerability
Relatively Low
Community Resilience
Relatively Moderate
Hazard Risk Breakdown
Hurricane Relatively Low
Drought Relatively Moderate
Earthquake Relatively Low
Landslide Very Low
Heat Wave Relatively Low
Lightning Relatively Low
Tornado Relatively Low
Hail Very Low
Strong Wind Relatively Low
Coastal Flooding Very Low
Winter Weather Relatively Low
Ice Storm Very Low
Wildfire Very Low
Cold Wave Very Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) Ratings reflect relative scores among all US counties. Data: hazards.fema.gov/nri
Counties with Similar Risk in Virginia
Disaster Preparedness Guides
Related
Frequently Asked Questions
How many natural disasters has Caroline County, Virginia had?
Caroline County, Virginia has received 3 FEMA disaster declarations from 2021 to 2026. Of these, 2 were major disaster declarations.
What is the most common disaster type in Caroline County?
The most common disaster type in Caroline County is Winter Storm, with 1 declaration. Other disaster types include Severe Storm (1), Severe Ice Storm (1).
How does Caroline County's disaster risk compare to the Virginia average?
Caroline County has 3 disaster declarations, which is 36% higher than the Virginia county average of 2.2 declarations. Compared to the national county average of 3.7, it is 20% lower.
How many major FEMA disaster declarations has Caroline County received?
Caroline County has received 2 major disaster declarations, representing 67% of all 3 disaster declarations. Major disaster declarations typically involve significant damage requiring federal assistance.
What types of storms are most common in Virginia?
The most common storm types in Virginia include Thunderstorm Wind (10,036 events), Flash Flood (2,427 events), Flood (2,400 events). NOAA storm event data covers severe weather from 2015 to 2025.
What was the worst year for disasters in Caroline County?
The most active year for disaster declarations in Caroline County was 2021, with 1 declaration. The county has FEMA disaster data spanning 2021 to 2026.
What is the overall disaster risk level for Caroline County?
Caroline County's 3 FEMA disaster declarations put it in the low-risk band, fewer federally recognized disasters than a typical U.S. county over the same span.
What is the FEMA National Risk Index score for Caroline County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, Caroline County, Virginia has an overall risk score of 20.7 out of 100 (Very Low). The county's social vulnerability rating is Relatively Low and community resilience is Relatively Moderate. The Expected Annual Loss (EAL) score is Very Low, representing $8.3M in annualized losses.
Which natural hazard poses the greatest risk to Caroline County?
Based on FEMA NRI data, the highest-risk natural hazard in Caroline County is Hurricane (risk rating: Relatively Low). Other significant hazards include Drought (Relatively Moderate) and Earthquake (Relatively Low). These scores are based on FEMA's analysis of historical event frequency, exposed assets, and community vulnerability.
Data Sources & Methodology
Disaster declaration data comes from the FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 API, which includes all federally declared disasters, emergencies, and fire management assistance grants.
Storm event data is sourced from the NOAA Storm Events Database (2015–2025), which tracks significant weather events including thunderstorms, tornadoes, floods, and winter storms.
This data is provided for informational purposes only. FEMA disaster declarations represent federal response actions and may not capture all local emergencies or weather events.
What this means for Caroline County
Caroline County, VA has 3 FEMA disaster declarations on record, a low historical disaster load, 36% above the Virginia county average.
- Its most common federal declaration type is major disaster (2 of 3) - know the hazards most likely here before they happen. Virginia overview
- See how this county ranks against the rest of the country for disaster frequency. Most-disaster rankings
- Read how to read FEMA declarations, NRI risk scores, and what they do and don't tell you. Disaster-data guide
Historical declaration counts describe past federal response, not a forecast. For current threats, follow the National Weather Service and local officials; in an emergency call 911.
Read our methodology - how this data is sourced, computed, and verified.
All federal data sources used on this page
- FEMA OpenFEMA, Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 - all federally-declared disasters for this county. fema.gov/openfema/disaster-declarations
- FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) - per-county per-hazard risk ratings and expected annual loss. hazards.fema.gov/nri
- NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database - state-level storm/severe-weather event records, 2015–2025. ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents
Data sourced from official public datasets. See our methodology for details. Retrieved and formatted by PlainHazard Editorial
Verify with FEMA → · Verify with FEMA NRI → · Verify with NOAA →
Every figure on PlainHazard is rendered directly from FEMA federal disaster data, no number is typed in by an editor. This page draws directly on FEMA federal disaster data, no figure is typed in by an editor. See our editorial standards & corrections policy, the methodology behind these numbers, or report a data error.