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Virginia · FEMA + NOAA + National Risk Index

Fauquier County, VA

21 FEMA disaster declarations (1972-2026), with a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Low. Most common hazard: Hurricane.

21
FEMA declarations
14
Major disasters
48
NRI risk · Relatively Low
Hurricane
Top hazard

The verdict

Two federal records point in the busier direction for Fauquier County. Its 21 FEMA declarations are 3% above the Virginia county mean and exceed the count for 52% of the 3,266 counties in this registry. Separately, FEMA's National Risk Index places it safer than 48%, based on modeled expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience.

Safer than 48%
of U.S. counties for FEMA National Risk Index score
Relatively Low
FEMA National Risk Index rating
21
FEMA declarations vs 21 national county avg
32
NFIP flood insurance claims filed

FEMA's National Risk Index and its declaration registry are separate measures. This county's registry includes Major Disaster (DR) and Emergency (EM) records; an EM authorizes a narrower set of federal assistance than a DR.

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FEMA OpenFEMA declaration desk

County FIPS 51061 · Fauquier County 21 declarations · rank 1562/3,266

DECL-HEAVY · MAJOR-MID · RANK-LOWER · PHOTO-FINISH · NRI-LOW · ACT-HIGH · TYPE-LEAD · VS-ST-ABOVE

  • DECL-HEAVY 21
  • MAJOR-MID 67%
  • RANK-LOWER #1,562
  • PHOTO-FINISH Montgomery
  • NRI-LOW 48
  • ACT-HIGH High
  • TYPE-LEAD Hurricane
  • VS-ST-ABOVE +3%

Nearest declaration peer: Montgomery, IN (0 declaration gap)

FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 filing stamps for this county register. Read with this county → · Virginia state profile

Fauquier County in the declaration-count neighbourhood

FEMA declaration records among Fauquier County and nearest peers by total count

declarations

What this shows Fauquier County carries 21 FEMA declaration records, ranked 1562 of 3,266 counties in this registry.

Source FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 As of 2026-08-25

How Fauquier County's FEMA declaration count compares nationally

Fauquier County vs. all counties in this dataset

FEMA disaster declarations, all-time · Fauquier County

21 Top 48% higher than 52% of 3,266 counties

This county 0 90 all U.S. counties FEMA tracks, bucketed by value

Each bar is a band; taller bars hold more counties. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count, share, and where it sits relative to this entry.

Source FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 · 2026-08-25

Fauquier County's FEMA Risk Index score

0/100100/100Virginia avg33/10047.7/100
FEMA National Risk Index composite score vs. the Virginia county average

Which hazard drives modeled loss here?

FEMA's modeled annual dollar loss for Fauquier County is led by Riverine Flooding (about $16.2M Expected Annual Loss, Historical Loss Ratio Relatively High), while Lightning carries the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively Moderate). EAL and risk score use different inputs; they need not agree.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025 release) - Expected Annual Loss vs composite risk rating by hazard.

What does Fauquier County's hazard record show?

FEMA National Risk Index

FEMA's data shows an elevated National Risk Index composite of 47.7/100 for this county (Relatively Low rating). Expected Annual Loss comes in at Relatively Low (roughly $22.2M in annualized losses). Social vulnerability (Very Low) and community resilience (Relatively High) both factor into how that raw exposure plays out on the ground. Among the 18 modeled hazards, Lightning carries the county's highest rating, a mid-range Relatively Moderate. FEMA's modeled frequency puts that hazard at an average of 40 times per year here, based on 70,357 historical events on record.

Reading the federal records together

This county has a small entry in FEMA's NFIP paid-claims table: 32 claims and $175.4K paid in total. PlainHazard calls 1-49 claims a light registry record, a label for this dataset rather than a finding that flood exposure is low. A short claims history can also reflect insurance take-up, the period covered, or losses that were never insured.

The declaration register points in the busier direction. Fauquier County's 21 federal records stand 3% above the Virginia county mean of 20.4. That comparison describes how often federal action was recorded, including any Major Disaster, Emergency, and Fire Management entries shown on this page; it does not convert the count into future probability.

63 /100

Historical Activity Index

High historical activity

Fauquier County, VA · PlainHazard-derived composite from federal records

This 0–100 index is an explicit PlainHazard composite from FEMA declaration history only on the county surface (this DB has no county-level NOAA damage row) . It is not FEMA's National Risk Index, not a forecast, and not a safety, insurance, or preparedness rating. Open the calculator · Methodology

FEMA Declarations (1953–present) High
15/30

21 OpenFEMA declarations, full ingest window (1.0x national county average)

County Disaster Density High
13/25

21 declarations (1.0x state county average of 20)

Major Disaster Share High
17/25

14 of 21 declarations are major disasters (67%)

Hazard Diversity Very High
18/20

7 different disaster types declared in Fauquier County

FEMA NRI 8-hazard radar - Fauquier County

Fauquier County NRI risk profile 8-axis FEMA National Risk Index radar showing per-hazard scores for Earthquake 25, Flood 25, Hurricane 25, Tornado 8, Wildfire 8, Drought 25, Heat Wave 25, Winter Storm 25. The simple mean of these eight displayed scores is 21 of 100. Earthquake Flood Hurricane Tornado Wildfire Drought Heat Wave Winter Storm 21 8-hazard mean
Fauquier County NRI risk profile FIPS 51061 · displayed-hazard mean 21/100
How to read this radar

Each axis: NRI risk rating (Very Low-Very High) on a 0-100 scale. Rounder = broad exposure; spiky = one or two hazards dominate.

FEMA Records

21

Above median

Major Disaster share

67%

Major-heavy

NRI risk score

48

Relatively Low

Source: FEMA National Risk Index Per-county per-hazard ratings, December 2025 release

How often does each hazard strike Fauquier County?

FEMA's National Risk Index models a historical event count and an annualized frequency for each hazard type. Most hazards are expressed as modeled occurrences per year; FEMA expresses drought and heat-wave frequency as event-days per year. These modeled frequencies are not forecasts.

Hazard NRI Risk Rating Recurrence
Lightning Relatively Moderate an average of 40 times per year
Hurricane Relatively Low roughly once every 11 years
Riverine Flooding Relatively Low an average of 2.7 times per year
Strong Wind Relatively Moderate an average of 6.8 times per year
Heat Wave Relatively Low 4.5 modeled event-days per year
Earthquake Relatively Low roughly once every 641 years
Landslide Very Low roughly once every 2 years
Hail Relatively Low an average of 3.7 times per year
Winter Weather Relatively Low an average of 10 times per year
Drought Relatively Low 2.9 modeled event-days per year
Wildfire Very Low roughly once every 2,000 years
Ice Storm Very Low roughly once every 2 years
Tornado Very Low roughly once every 2 years
Cold Wave Very Low an average of 1.6 times per year
Avalanche Very Low roughly once every 100 years

Source: FEMA National Risk Index Modeled annualized frequency; drought and heat wave use event-days/year, December 2025 release

Disaster Types

Hurricane 6
Severe Storm 5
Snowstorm 4
Biological 2
Flood 2
Winter Storm 1
Drought 1

What Hurricane declarations mean here

Hurricane is the most frequent declaration type on Fauquier County's federal record, 29% of its declarations. Atlantic tropical systems run on a defined season, 1 June to 30 November, with most activity concentrated between August and October; Pacific and territorial basins run on their own calendars. A single named storm routinely produces one declaration number covering a long corridor of counties at once, well inland as well as on the coast, which is why an affected county's count can jump by several in one year without several separate events having occurred.

One practical distinction matters when reading these records: a tropical declaration usually bundles wind, storm surge and inland rainfall flooding under a single incident, but the insurance behind them is split. Wind damage falls to property insurers, while flood and surge damage is covered only under a separate National Flood Insurance Program policy. That is why a county can show heavy declaration activity and a comparatively small NFIP claims record, or the reverse.

Declaration counts describe past federal action. They are a record of what was declared, not a forecast of future hazard probability.

Declaration Types

What DR / EM / FM mean

FEMA categorizes declarations as Major Disasters (DR), Emergencies (EM), or Fire Management Assistance (FM).

Major Disaster - 14 66.7%

of all 21 declarations

Emergency - 7 33.3%

of all 21 declarations

FEMA Declarations Timeline

Year Declarations
2026 1
2022 1
2020 2
2018 1
2016 1
2013 2
2012 1
2010 1
2005 1
2003 2
2000 1
1996 3
1994 1
1993 1
1977 1
Show 1 earlier declaration years
1972 1

Disaster Declarations

How the 21 FEMA declarations break into federal action codes (DR / EM / FM). Same DISTINCT grain as the table below.

Download these 21 declarations as CSV . FEMA source data is public domain; our derived presentation is CC0.

DR# Title Type Incident Date
3631 SEVERE WINTER STORM EM Winter Storm 2026-01-23
4644 SEVERE WINTER STORM AND SNOWSTORM DR Severe Storm 2022-03-11
4512 COVID-19 PANDEMIC DR Biological 2020-04-02
3448 COVID-19 EM Biological 2020-03-13
3403 HURRICANE FLORENCE EM Hurricane 2018-09-11
4262 SEVERE WINTER STORM AND SNOWSTORM DR Snowstorm 2016-03-07
4092 HURRICANE SANDY DR Hurricane 2012-11-26
3359 HURRICANE SANDY EM Hurricane 2012-10-29
4072 SEVERE STORMS AND STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS DR Severe Storm 2012-07-27
1905 SEVERE WINTER STORMS AND SNOWSTORMS DR Snowstorm 2010-04-27
3240 HURRICANE KATRINA EVACUATION EM Hurricane 2005-09-12
1491 HURRICANE ISABEL DR Hurricane 2003-09-18
1458 SEVERE WINTER STORM, RECORD/NEAR RECORD SNOWFALL, HEAVY RAIN,FLOODIND, AND MUDSLIDE DR Severe Storm 2003-03-27
1318 SEVERE WINTER STORMS DR Severe Storm 2000-02-28
1135 HURRICANE FRAN AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE STORM COND DR Hurricane 1996-09-06
1098 FLOODING, HIGH WINDS, AND WIND DRIVEN RAIN DR Flood 1996-01-27
1086 BLIZZARD OF 96 (SEVERE SNOW STORM) DR Snowstorm 1996-01-13
1021 SEVERE WINTER ICE STORM DR Severe Storm 1994-04-11
3112 SEVERE WINTER STORM EM Snowstorm 1993-03-25
3046 DROUGHT EM Drought 1977-07-23
Show 1 earlier declaration records
DR# Title Type Incident Date
339 TROPICAL STORM AGNES DR Flood 1972-06-23

Storm Events in Virginia

Statewide NOAA context only. PlainHazard does not currently attribute these state totals to Fauquier County.

Storm Type Events Fatalities Injuries Property Damage
Thunderstorm Wind 8,940 13 31 $123.1M
Flood 2,300 4 0 $85.1M
Winter Weather 2,049 6 32 $902.0K
Flash Flood 1,942 13 4 $244.2M
Heavy Rain 1,566 0 0 $2.5M

Source: NOAA Storm Events Database State-level aggregated data, 2015-2025

NFIP Flood Insurance Claims

Total Claims

32

Total Paid

$175.4K

Avg Per Claim

$5.5K

Source: FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA Claims Data

FEMA National Risk Index

Overall Risk

Relatively Low

Score: 47.7/100

Expected Annual Loss

Relatively Low

$22.2M/year

Social Vulnerability

Very Low

Community Resilience

Relatively High

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Lightning Relatively Moderate
Hurricane Relatively Low
Riverine Flooding Relatively Low
Strong Wind Relatively Moderate
Heat Wave Relatively Low
Earthquake Relatively Low
Landslide Very Low
Hail Relatively Low
Winter Weather Relatively Low
Drought Relatively Low
Wildfire Very Low
Ice Storm Very Low
Tornado Very Low
Cold Wave Very Low
Avalanche Very Low

Source: FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) Ratings reflect relative scores among all US counties. Data: hazards.fema.gov/nri

The model's sharpest exposure here: Lightning

Lightning is modeled as a high-frequency, low-per-event hazard: strike counts are large, but each strike affects a very small area. Its aggregate cost accumulates through structure fires, electrical and electronic damage, and it is one of the few hazards whose risk is essentially continuous through the season rather than episodic.

Worth noting for Fauquier County: the model and the federal record do NOT point at the same hazard. Lightning carries the highest modeled rating (Relatively Moderate), while the county's declaration history is led by Hurricane. That is not a contradiction, the two measure genuinely different things. Declarations record federal ACTION, which requires damage costly enough to exceed state and local capacity; the Risk Index models EXPECTED annual loss across all 18 hazards whether or not any declaration ever followed. A hazard can be the county's largest modeled exposure and never once have driven a declaration.

National Risk Index ratings are modeled estimates of expected annual loss, not predictions of what will happen in any given year.

Data-matched county comparisons

Fauquier County's closest FEMA peer: Carroll County, AR

Comparisons use published FEMA declaration fields plus the National Risk Index composite for Fauquier County. Record similarity, not a safety rating.

How these peers are chosen

Cohort: Published U.S. county equivalents outside the source state or territory. Each metric keeps six ETL candidates; three unique destinations are shown after de-duplicating across axes. Declaration-volume ranking combines count and Major-disaster share and prefers a different leading incident type; Major-share ranks the Major fraction adjusted for volume; NRI ranks the modeled composite score only.

Retained FEMA snapshot feed for Fauquier County - capture-dated entries only.

Compare beyond this state

Nationwide peers by NRI score & FEMA declaration volume

Two PlainHazard-derived comparison paths for Fauquier County: nearest out-of-state National Risk Index composite and nearest FEMA declaration count (floor ≥5 records). Record similarity only, not a forecast of the next hazard.

Further reading for this county

Most disaster-prone counties

With 21 FEMA declarations, Fauquier County sits in the high-volume declaration band - see how that count ranks against other U.S. counties.

More PlainHazard guides

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the most common disaster type in Fauquier County?
The most common disaster type in Fauquier County is Hurricane, with 6 declarations. Other disaster types include Severe Storm (5), Snowstorm (4), Biological (2).
How does Fauquier County's FEMA declaration record compare with the Virginia average?
FEMA lists 21 declaration records for Fauquier County. That is 3% above the Virginia county mean of 20.4. Its count is also 1% above the national county mean of 20.7. A larger declaration history records more federal actions; it is not a forecast of the county's next hazard.
How many major FEMA disaster declarations has Fauquier County received?
Fauquier County has received 14 major disaster declarations, representing 67% of all 21 disaster declarations.
How many flood insurance claims has Fauquier County filed?
Fauquier County has 32 National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims totaling $175.4K in payments, with an average of $5.5K per claim.
Does FEMA's top risk-rated hazard match the highest Expected Annual Loss in Fauquier County?
No. In Fauquier County, Lightning has the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively Moderate), while Riverine Flooding leads Expected Annual Loss at about $16.2M. FEMA's risk score and dollar-loss model use different inputs, so the leaders often differ.
What was the worst year for disasters in Fauquier County?
The most active year for disaster declarations in Fauquier County was 1996, with 3 declarations. The county has FEMA disaster data spanning 1972 to 2026.
What is the FEMA National Risk Index score for Fauquier County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, Fauquier County, Virginia has an overall risk score of 47.7 out of 100 (Relatively Low). The county's social vulnerability rating is Very Low and community resilience is Relatively High. The Expected Annual Loss (EAL) score is Relatively Low, representing $22.2M in annualized losses.
Which natural hazard poses the greatest risk to Fauquier County?
FEMA's NRI data points to Fauquier County is Lightning (risk rating: Relatively Moderate). Other significant hazards include Hurricane (Relatively Low) and Riverine Flooding (Relatively Low). FEMA's modeled event frequency puts lightning here at an average of 40 times per year, drawn from 70,357 historical events on record. The underlying methodology weighs historical event frequency against exposed assets and community vulnerability.
Data Sources & Methodology

Disaster declaration data comes from the FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 API, which includes all federally declared disasters, emergencies, and fire management assistance grants.

Storm event data is sourced from the NOAA Storm Events Database (2015-2025), which tracks significant weather events including thunderstorms, tornadoes, floods, and winter storms.

Flood insurance data comes from the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA claims dataset.

This data is provided for informational purposes only. FEMA disaster declarations represent federal response actions and may not capture all local emergencies or weather events.

FEMA OpenFEMA declarations + NRI for Fauquier County · vintage 2026-08-25 · Methodology · Virginia profile · Verify with FEMA OpenFEMA · Verify with NOAA Storm Events