Warren County, Virginia
County storm and disaster record · FIPS 51187 · population 40,715 · 215 sq mi
NOAA's Storm Events Database holds 735 records for Warren County, Virginia from 1950 through June 30, 2026, on 573 days; the most frequent are winter storm records (209 records). 423 of them are forecast-zone records, which the National Weather Service files once per zone: a county covered by several zones receives each one, so a single storm can add several records on the same day. The deadliest single record is the May 6, 1998 flood, filed for the forecast zone Warren, which covers the county: 1 death and $11,000 in damage in 2025 dollars. FEMA has issued 23 declarations naming the county since 1972, 21 of them for natural hazards; the latest for a natural hazard was “Severe Winter Storm” on January 23, 2026.
The record, 1950 to 2026
Storm records filed for the county each year (2026 to June 30, 2026). Before 1996 NOAA recorded only tornadoes (from 1950), thunderstorm wind and hail (from 1955).
- recorded, no damage figure
- under $100,000
- $100,000 or more
- $1 million or more
- $10 million or more, or a death
- $100 million or more, or 10 deaths
- a year's colour: its recorded damage or deaths
- a year with a death
- 1955: wind and hail recorded from 1955
- 1996: all 48 event types from 1996
- Storm records
- 735on 573 days, 1950 to June 30, 2026
- Deaths recorded
- 19 injuries
- Damage, 2025 dollars
- $109Mas filed (scale steps before 1993)
- Tornadoes
- 3strongest F1
- FEMA declarations
- 23latest 2026
Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, records through June 30, 2026 (file revision 20260918); damage converted to 2025 dollars with the BLS CPI-U. Search the record at NCEI. BLS consumer price index.
What hazards hit Warren County most?
The most frequent records are winter storm records: 209 since 1996. 59% of its winter storm records since 1996 fell in January and February. The rank column places the county among Virginia's counties by days with a record per 1,000 square miles of land over each hazard's complete period.
| Hazard | Records | Days | First, last | Killed | Injured | Damage | Rank in state |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winter storms | 209 | 185 | 1996-2026 | 0 | 0 | $2.5M | 3 of 96 |
| Severe thunderstorm wind | 154 | 115 | 1958-2026 | 0 | 3 | $875K | 13 of 96 |
| Floods | 115 | 71 | 1996-2025 | 1 | 1 | $98M | 5 of 96 |
| Fog, smoke and funnel clouds | 67 | 67 | 2006-2021 | 0 | 0 | – | 4 of 96 |
| Extreme cold | 56 | 51 | 1997-2026 | 0 | 0 | $735K | 6 of 96 |
| Heat | 39 | 39 | 1996-2025 | 0 | 0 | – | 5 of 96 |
| Hail | 33 | 21 | 1960-2025 | 0 | 0 | – | 40 of 96 |
| High wind and dust storms | 28 | 26 | 1996-2026 | 0 | 5 | $1.6M | 8 of 96 |
| Heavy rain | 14 | 14 | 1998-2002 | 0 | 0 | – | 34 of 96 |
| Drought | 10 | 10 | 1997-2007 | 0 | 0 | $4.9M | 15 of 96 |
| Lightning | 6 | 6 | 1996-2008 | 0 | 0 | $424K | 10 of 96 |
| Tornadoes | 3 | 3 | 1970-2004 | 0 | 0 | $127K | 58 of 96 |
| Wildfires | 1 | 1 | 2008-2008 | 0 | 0 | – | 8 of 96 |
Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database (county and forecast-zone records attributed to the county; a zone record shows its own totals on each county it covers). Days: dates with at least one record of the hazard in the county. Ranks: days with a record per 1,000 square miles of land (Census Bureau 2024 Gazetteer), since 1950 for tornadoes, 1955 for hail and thunderstorm wind, 1996 for the rest.
How many tornadoes has Warren County had?
NOAA records 3 tornadoes in Warren County from 1970 to 2004, the strongest rated F1, with 0 deaths and 0 injuries recorded in the county. A tornado that crossed a county line is counted in each county it touched, with the length of its path inside the county.
Counted as whole tornadoes rather than county records, the Storm Prediction Center's database holds 4 tornadoes whose track touched Warren County since 1950 (NOAA's county records number 3: they file a crossing tornado once per county segment, and the two databases differ on some tracks); along their whole tracks they killed 0 people.
Map of the strongest tornado tracks in Virginia.
Every tornado record filed for Warren County (3)
| Date | Place | Character | Killed | Injured | Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004-09-17 | Front Royal, Warren County | F0 0.5 mi x 50 yd | 0 | 0 | – |
| 2001-05-27 | Ashby, Warren County | F1 4 mi x 100 yd | 0 | 0 | $108K |
| 1970-07-09 | Warren County | F0 | 0 | 0 | $3K step |
A damage figure marked "step" is a record from before 1993: NOAA then filed damage by category, and the figure is the category as entered, in the dollars of that year, not an estimate of the loss.
Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, tornado records by county (path length in the county, maximum width); ratings as published: F scale before February 1, 2007, EF scale after. Whole-track figures: NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database (1950-2025). SPC severe weather database.
When was the last damaging storm in Warren County?
The most recent record with damage, injuries or deaths is the June 11, 2026 thunderstorm wind ($12,000 in damage in 2025 dollars).
| Date | Record | Character | Killed | Injured | Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | Thunderstorm WindFront Royal, Warren County | 56 kt wind | 0 | 0 | $12K |
| 2026-05-20 | Thunderstorm WindKaro, Warren County | 52 kt wind | 0 | 0 | $2K |
| 2026-03-12 | Winter WeatherGreene County and 5 more · forecast zone Northern Virginia Blue Ridge | 0 | 0 | – | |
| 2026-03-02 | Winter WeatherGreene County and 5 more · forecast zone Northern Virginia Blue Ridge | 0 | 0 | – | |
| 2026-03-02 | Winter WeatherGreene County and 5 more · forecast zone Northern Virginia Blue Ridge | 0 | 0 | – | |
| 2026-03-02 | Winter WeatherWarren County · forecast zone Warren | 0 | 0 | – | |
| 2026-02-22 | Winter WeatherWarren County · forecast zone Warren | 0 | 0 | – | |
| 2026-02-22 | Winter StormGreene County and 5 more · forecast zone Northern Virginia Blue Ridge | 0 | 0 | – | |
| 2026-02-07 | Extreme Cold/Wind ChillWarren County · forecast zone Warren | 0 | 0 | – | |
| 2026-02-07 | Extreme Cold/Wind ChillGreene County and 5 more · forecast zone Northern Virginia Blue Ridge | 0 | 0 | – | |
| 2026-02-07 | High WindGreene County and 5 more · forecast zone Northern Virginia Blue Ridge | 50 kt wind | 0 | 0 | – |
| 2026-02-01 | Extreme Cold/Wind ChillGreene County and 5 more · forecast zone Northern Virginia Blue Ridge | 0 | 0 | – |
Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database; every record of 2025-2026 is listed, earlier ones when they caused deaths, injuries or $250,000 of damage (2025 dollars), and every tornado.
The deadliest and costliest records
| Date | Record | Character | Killed | Injured | Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998-05-06 | FloodWarren County · forecast zone Warren A prolonged period of light to occasionally moderate rain gradually saturated the ground during the first few days of May. Isolated heavier showers and thunderstorms developed across the central Shenandoah Valley, first during the overnight hours of the 7th and again during the early and mid afternoon of the 8th, ... | 1 | 0 | $11K | |
| 2012-10-29 | High WindWarren County · forecast zone Warren Wind gusts of 58 mph were estimated based on nearby observations. There were scattered trees and power lines down county wide. In Front Royal, trees and limbs fell across the town causing power outages affecting 700 and crews closed streets. | 50 kt wind | 0 | 5 | $129K |
| 2008-06-04 | Thunderstorm WindWaterlick, Warren County A local newspaper reported that downed trees destroyed a mobile home . Two minor injuries were also reported. | 50 kt wind | 0 | 2 | $30K |
| 2000-06-15 | Thunderstorm WindCountywide, Warren County Trees were downed onto a house, barn, tent, and several roads. | 0 | 1 | $69K | |
| 1996-04-03 | FloodWarren County · forecast zone Warren The swollen Shenandoah River took a vehicle, and nearly a life, when a driver attempted to cross a low-water bridge near Linden. Although the gaging point at Front Royal was nearly 6 feet below flood stage, the level reached it's monthly peak the prior evening. | 0 | 1 | $28K |
| Date | Record | Character | Killed | Injured | Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1996-09-06 | FloodWarren County · forecast zone Warren | 0 | 0 | $79M | |
| 1999-08-01 | DroughtWarren County · forecast zone Warren | 0 | 0 | $3.0M | |
| 2003-02-14 | Winter StormWarren County · forecast zone Warren | 0 | 0 | $2.1M | |
| 1996-09-06 | High WindWarren County · forecast zone Warren | 0 | 0 | $950K | |
| 1997-04-10 | Frost/FreezeWarren County · forecast zone Warren | 0 | 0 | $735K | |
| 2003-09-18 | High WindWarren County · forecast zone Warren | 50 kt wind | 0 | 0 | $353K |
| 2002-08-03 | LightningCountywide, Warren County | 0 | 0 | $320K | |
| 1998-02-04 | Ice StormWarren County · forecast zone Warren | 0 | 0 | $299K |
Before 1993 NOAA filed damage by category, not amount, so the list above starts in 1993. The highest category filed here before then (entered as $3K, in the dollars of the day) holds: July 9, 1970 (tornado, Warren County).
Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database: deaths and injuries direct and indirect; damage is property plus crops as estimated by the National Weather Service, converted to 2025 dollars.
Is it getting more frequent?
Records per decade for Warren County's most frequent hazards. Counts rose everywhere after 1996, when NOAA began recording every event type, so compare decades within a hazard's complete period only (the shaded cells come before it).
| Hazard | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020-26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winter storms | – | – | – | – | 19 | 51 | 77 | 62 |
| Severe thunderstorm wind | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 33 | 69 | 29 |
| Floods | – | – | – | – | 18 | 21 | 46 | 30 |
| Fog, smoke and funnel clouds | – | – | – | – | 0 | 7 | 46 z | 14 |
| Extreme cold | – | – | – | – | 2 | 14 | 19 | 21 |
| Heat | – | – | – | – | 8 | 14 | 9 | 8 |
Fog, smoke and funnel clouds in the 2010s: 46 records against 7 in the decade before, 46 of them forecast-zone records. Cells marked z rose mostly through zone records. The local National Weather Service office files these once per forecast zone, so a change in how it draws its zones or splits a storm into records moves this count as much as the weather does; read it beside the Warren County days with a record above.
Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, records per calendar decade; zone records from the CZ_TYPE field (Z).
What time of year?
59% of its winter storm records since 1996 fell in January and February. The two busiest months are in violet.
The values, month by month
Jan 102 · Feb 84 · Mar 58 · Apr 37 · May 51 · Jun 99 · Jul 87 · Aug 61 · Sep 45 · Oct 26 · Nov 17 · Dec 68 (records).
Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, records by the month they began.
Federal disaster declarations for Warren County
FEMA's register lists 23 declarations that include Warren County: 15 major disasters, 7 emergencies and one fire management assistance declaration. Most were for hurricane (6) and snowstorm (4).
| Declared | Number | Type | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | EM-3631 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2020-04-02 | DR-4512 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020-03-13 | EM-3448 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2018-09-11 | EM-3403 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| 2016-03-07 | DR-4262 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| 2012-11-26 | DR-4092 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2012-10-29 | EM-3359 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2012-07-27 | DR-4072 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Straight-Line Winds |
| 2011-02-20 | FM-2860 | Fire | Smith Fire |
| 2010-04-27 | DR-1905 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storms and Snowstorms |
| 2005-09-12 | EM-3240 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| 2003-09-18 | DR-1491 | Hurricane | Hurricane Isabel |
| 2003-03-27 | DR-1458 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm, Record/Near Record Snowfall, Heavy Rain,Floodind, and Mudslide |
| 2000-02-28 | DR-1318 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| 1996-09-06 | DR-1135 | Hurricane | Hurricane Fran and Associated Severe Storm Cond |
| 1996-01-27 | DR-1098 | Flood | Flooding, High Winds, and Wind Driven Rain |
| 1996-01-13 | DR-1086 | Snowstorm | Blizzard of 96 (Severe Snow Storm) |
| 1995-07-01 | DR-1059 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| 1993-03-25 | EM-3112 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 1985-11-09 | DR-755 | Flood | Severe Storms & Flooding |
| 1977-07-23 | EM-3046 | Drought | Drought |
| 1972-10-10 | DR-359 | Flood | Severe Storms & Flooding |
| 1972-06-23 | DR-339 | Flood | Tropical Storm Agnes |
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (v2), declarations through October 2, 2026; one declaration is counted once however many areas it names. OpenFEMA dataset page.
How many floods has Warren County had?
NOAA's Storm Events Database holds 115 flood or flash flood records for Warren County from 1996 to 2025, on 71 days, with 1 death. By flood insurance claims since 1978 (OpenFEMA, as of September 8, 2026), Warren County ranks 641st of 2,942 U.S. counties.
| Storm | Began | Records | Deaths in the county |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hurricane Fran | 1996-09-06 | 2 | 0 |
The National Flood Insurance Program has paid $6.8 million on 370 claims filed in Warren County; the most in one year was 192 in 1996. Claims count insured losses only: uninsured flood damage is not in this file.
The values, year by year
1979: 3 · 1984: 4 · 1985: 49 · 1987: 10 · 1990: 3 · 1992: 8 · 1993: 9 · 1995: 1 · 1996: 192 · 1998: 1 · 2000: 1 · 2003: 24 · 2004: 1 · 2005: 1 · 2006: 2 · 2010: 3 · 2011: 16 · 2012: 1 · 2014: 24 · 2017: 2 · 2018: 10 · 2024: 2 · 2025: 3; the other years: 0.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA NFIP Redacted Claims, as of September 8, 2026; claims by year of loss, payments in the dollars of the year paid. OpenFEMA dataset page.
FEMA's modeled risk for Warren County
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Warren County Very Low overall, with an expected annual loss of $13.0 million. These are FEMA's model estimates of future loss from 18 hazards, not a count of what happened; they can differ from the record above.
| Hazard | Risk rating | Expected annual loss | Modeled frequency |
|---|---|---|---|
| Landslide | Relatively Low | $21K | once in about 3 years (modeled) |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | $263K | once in about 13 years (modeled) |
| Drought | Relatively Low | $279K | 3.3 modeled event-days a year |
| Riverine Flooding | Relatively Low | $10M | 2.2 a year (modeled) |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | $446K | 3.2 modeled event-days a year |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | $272K | 40 a year (modeled) |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | $594K | 5.8 a year (modeled) |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | $65K | 12 a year (modeled) |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, county table, December 2025 release. FEMA's National Risk Index map.
Counties that share a border with Warren County
Source: U.S. Census Bureau county adjacency file; NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, records since 1950. The Census Bureau's adjacency file.
Next
- Tornadoes in VirginiaEvery Virginia tornado since 1950 and the counties with the most per square mile
- Winter storms in VirginiaThe state's winter storm records, by county, year and month
- The Virginia recordEvery hazard in the state, its deadliest events and its federal declarations
- FEMA's risk rating for each hazard in Warren CountyThe hazard risk calculator: 18 hazards beside the county's record
- Download Warren County's FEMA declarations (CSV)23 rows: every declaration that named the county, for your own analysis