Frederick County, Virginia
County storm and disaster record · FIPS 51069 · population 91,336 · 413 sq mi
NOAA's Storm Events Database holds 930 records for Frederick County, Virginia from 1950 through June 30, 2026, on 649 days; the most frequent are severe thunderstorm wind events (267 records). The deadliest single record is the May 16, 2014 flash flood: 1 death, 1 injury and $6,233 in damage in 2025 dollars. FEMA has issued 19 declarations naming the county since 1972, 17 of them for natural hazards; the latest for a natural hazard was “Severe Winter Storm” on January 23, 2026.
The record, 1950 to 2026
Storm records filed for the county each year (2026 to June 30, 2026). Before 1996 NOAA recorded only tornadoes (from 1950), thunderstorm wind and hail (from 1955).
- recorded, no damage figure
- under $100,000
- $100,000 or more
- $1 million or more
- $10 million or more, or a death
- $100 million or more, or 10 deaths
- a year's colour: its recorded damage or deaths
- a year with a death
- 1955: wind and hail recorded from 1955
- 1996: all 48 event types from 1996
- Storm records
- 930on 649 days, 1950 to June 30, 2026
- Deaths recorded
- 28 injuries
- Damage, 2025 dollars
- $48Mas filed (scale steps before 1993)
- Tornadoes
- 10strongest F2
- FEMA declarations
- 19latest 2026
Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, records through June 30, 2026 (file revision 20260918); damage converted to 2025 dollars with the BLS CPI-U. Search the record at NCEI. BLS consumer price index.
What hazards hit Frederick County most?
The most frequent records are severe thunderstorm wind events: 267 since 1962. 50% of its severe thunderstorm wind events since 1962 fell in June and July. The rank column places the county among Virginia's counties by days with a record per 1,000 square miles of land over each hazard's complete period.
| Hazard | Records | Days | First, last | Killed | Injured | Damage | Rank in state |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Severe thunderstorm wind | 267 | 152 | 1962-2026 | 0 | 2 | $2.6M | 29 of 96 |
| Winter storms | 209 | 204 | 1996-2026 | 1 | 0 | $2.5M | 12 of 96 |
| Floods | 150 | 74 | 1996-2025 | 1 | 1 | $5.3M | 21 of 96 |
| Hail | 81 | 47 | 1960-2026 | 0 | 0 | $8.2M | 28 of 96 |
| Fog, smoke and funnel clouds | 65 | 65 | 2005-2021 | 0 | 0 | – | 15 of 96 |
| Extreme cold | 51 | 50 | 1997-2026 | 0 | 0 | $12M | 15 of 96 |
| Heat | 36 | 36 | 1997-2021 | 0 | 0 | – | 16 of 96 |
| High wind and dust storms | 32 | 32 | 1996-2025 | 0 | 0 | $11M | 32 of 96 |
| Lightning | 12 | 10 | 1996-2008 | 0 | 2 | $456K | 14 of 96 |
| Drought | 11 | 11 | 1997-2007 | 0 | 0 | $3.7M | 38 of 96 |
| Tornadoes | 10 | 9 | 1961-2011 | 0 | 3 | $2.5M | 42 of 96 |
| Heavy rain | 6 | 6 | 1999-2005 | 0 | 0 | – | 74 of 96 |
Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database (county and forecast-zone records attributed to the county; a zone record shows its own totals on each county it covers). Days: dates with at least one record of the hazard in the county. Ranks: days with a record per 1,000 square miles of land (Census Bureau 2024 Gazetteer), since 1950 for tornadoes, 1955 for hail and thunderstorm wind, 1996 for the rest.
How many tornadoes has Frederick County had?
NOAA records 10 tornadoes in Frederick County from 1961 to 2011, the strongest rated F2, with 0 deaths and 3 injuries recorded in the county. That is 42nd of 96 Virginia counties by days with tornadoes per 1,000 square miles since 1950. A tornado that crossed a county line is counted in each county it touched, with the length of its path inside the county.
Counted as whole tornadoes rather than county records, the Storm Prediction Center's database holds 11 tornadoes whose track touched Frederick County since 1950 (NOAA's county records number 10: they file a crossing tornado once per county segment, and the two databases differ on some tracks); along their whole tracks they killed 0 people.
Map of the strongest tornado tracks in Virginia.
Every tornado record filed for Frederick County (10)
| Date | Place | Character | Killed | Injured | Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011-04-28 | Meadow Mills, Frederick County | EF0 2.93 mi x 175 yd | 0 | 0 | $7K |
| 2008-06-04 | Green Spg, Frederick County | EF0 0.45 mi x 100 yd | 0 | 0 | $11K |
| 2008-04-20 | Middletown, Frederick County | EF0 0.5 mi x 40 yd | 0 | 0 | $55K |
| 2004-09-17 | Middletown, Frederick County | F1 9 mi x 250 yd | 0 | 2 | $1.6M |
| 2004-09-17 | Winchester Airport, Frederick County | F2 5 mi x 125 yd | 0 | 0 | $391K |
| 1998-07-30 | Gainesboro, Frederick County | F0 0.5 mi x 75 yd | 0 | 0 | $18K |
| 1998-06-16 | Clear Brook, Frederick County | F1 2.5 mi x 100 yd | 0 | 0 | $181K |
| 1997-06-18 | Dbl Tollgate, Frederick County | F0 3 mi x 30 yd | 0 | 0 | $11K |
| 1962-06-02 | Frederick County | F1 | 0 | 0 | $25K step |
| 1961-07-13 | Frederick County | F2 | 0 | 1 | $3K step |
A damage figure marked "step" is a record from before 1993: NOAA then filed damage by category, and the figure is the category as entered, in the dollars of that year, not an estimate of the loss.
Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, tornado records by county (path length in the county, maximum width); ratings as published: F scale before February 1, 2007, EF scale after. Whole-track figures: NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database (1950-2025). SPC severe weather database.
When was the last damaging storm in Frederick County?
The most recent record with damage, injuries or deaths is the June 11, 2026 thunderstorm wind ($3,000 in damage in 2025 dollars).
| Date | Record | Character | Killed | Injured | Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | Thunderstorm WindBartonville, Frederick County | 52 kt wind | 0 | 0 | $3K |
| 2026-05-18 | Thunderstorm WindAlbin, Frederick County | 52 kt wind | 0 | 0 | $3K |
| 2026-05-18 | Thunderstorm WindMt Williams, Frederick County | 52 kt wind | 0 | 0 | $1K |
| 2026-05-18 | Thunderstorm WindMt Williams, Frederick County | 52 kt wind | 0 | 0 | $1K |
| 2026-05-18 | HailMountain Falls, Frederick County | 1.00 in hail | 0 | 0 | – |
| 2026-05-13 | Thunderstorm WindCross Jct, Frederick County | 53 kt wind | 0 | 0 | – |
| 2026-03-11 | Thunderstorm WindBartonville, Frederick County | 52 kt wind | 0 | 0 | $2K |
| 2026-03-02 | Winter WeatherFrederick County and Winchester (city) · forecast zone Frederick | 0 | 0 | – | |
| 2026-02-07 | Extreme Cold/Wind ChillFrederick County and Winchester (city) · forecast zone Frederick | 0 | 0 | – | |
| 2026-02-01 | Cold/Wind ChillFrederick County and Winchester (city) · forecast zone Frederick | 0 | 0 | – | |
| 2026-01-24 | Winter StormFrederick County and Winchester (city) · forecast zone Frederick | 0 | 0 | – | |
| 2026-01-23 | Extreme Cold/Wind ChillFrederick County and Winchester (city) · forecast zone Frederick | 0 | 0 | – |
Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database; every record of 2025-2026 is listed, earlier ones when they caused deaths, injuries or $250,000 of damage (2025 dollars), and every tornado.
The deadliest and costliest records
| Date | Record | Character | Killed | Injured | Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-05-16 | Flash FloodBrucetown, Frederick County Old Charles Town Road was flooded at Opequon Creek. | 1 | 1 | $6K | |
| 2003-02-14 | Winter StormFrederick County · forecast zone Frederick A complex storm system produced copious amounts of wintery precipitation across the northern third of Virginia between the evening of the 14th and midday on the 18th. The first batch of precipitation fell between the evening of the 14th and the evening of the 15th in the form of light to moderate snow or rain. The ... | 1 | 0 | $2.2M | |
| 2004-09-17 | TornadoMiddletown, Frederick County A tornado touched down in western Frederick County, Virginia on the 17th. The path of the storm was 9 miles long. It touched down about one mile east of Middletown and Interstate 81. Roof damage was noted to many barns and outbuildings. A large two story brick garage was nearly destroyed when its roof was blown off ... | F1 9 mi x 250 yd | 0 | 2 | $1.6M |
| 2008-06-10 | LightningBrucetown, Frederick County Frederick County Emergency Management reported a 15 year old male sustained minor injuries while under a tree when lightning struck the tree. | 0 | 1 | – | |
| 1997-07-28 | Thunderstorm WindEast Portion, Frederick County A squall line, which originated from an individual thunderstorm in southwest Pennsylvania, produced scattered wind damage across northern Virginia during the late afternoon as it raced across the region. The most impacting damage occurred in Frederick Co, where numerous trees and wires were blown down in the ... | 0 | 1 | $184K | |
| 1996-08-15 | LightningWinchester, Frederick County Lightning struck and injured a 34-year old man working outdoors near Winchester. He was treated and released at a local hospital. | 0 | 1 | – | |
| 1992-01-14 | Thunderstorm WindFrederick County | 0 | 1 | – | |
| 1961-07-13 | TornadoFrederick County | F2 | 0 | 1 | $3K step |
A damage figure marked "step" is a record from before 1993: NOAA then filed damage by category, and the figure is the category as entered, in the dollars of that year, not an estimate of the loss.
| Date | Record | Character | Killed | Injured | Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1997-04-10 | Frost/FreezeFrederick County · forecast zone Frederick | 0 | 0 | $12M | |
| 2003-09-18 | High WindFrederick County · forecast zone Frederick | 50 kt wind | 0 | 0 | $10M |
| 1996-01-19 | Flash FloodAll, Frederick County | 0 | 0 | $3.8M | |
| 1999-04-23 | HailWinchester Airport, Frederick County | 1.75 in hail | 0 | 0 | $2.7M |
| 2003-02-14 | Winter StormFrederick County · forecast zone Frederick | 1 | 0 | $2.2M | |
| 1996-09-06 | Flash FloodCountywide, Frederick County | 0 | 0 | $771K | |
| 2001-06-22 | Flash FloodCountywide, Frederick County | 0 | 0 | $667K | |
| 1997-06-26 | Thunderstorm WindWelltown, Frederick County | 0 | 0 | $478K |
Before 1993 NOAA filed damage by category, not amount, so the list above starts in 1993. The highest category filed here before then (entered as $25K, in the dollars of the day) holds: June 2, 1962 (tornado, Frederick County).
Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database: deaths and injuries direct and indirect; damage is property plus crops as estimated by the National Weather Service, converted to 2025 dollars.
Is it getting more frequent?
Records per decade for Frederick County's most frequent hazards. Counts rose everywhere after 1996, when NOAA began recording every event type, so compare decades within a hazard's complete period only (the shaded cells come before it).
| Hazard | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020-26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Severe thunderstorm wind | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 42 | 121 | 72 |
| Winter storms | – | – | – | – | 22 | 58 | 88 | 41 |
| Floods | – | – | – | – | 12 | 22 | 86 | 30 |
| Hail | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 21 | 38 | 7 |
| Fog, smoke and funnel clouds | – | – | – | – | 0 | 9 | 41 z | 15 |
| Extreme cold | – | – | – | – | 2 | 14 | 24 | 11 |
Fog, smoke and funnel clouds in the 2010s: 41 records against 9 in the decade before, 41 of them forecast-zone records. Cells marked z rose mostly through zone records. The local National Weather Service office files these once per forecast zone, so a change in how it draws its zones or splits a storm into records moves this count as much as the weather does; read it beside the Frederick County days with a record above.
Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, records per calendar decade; zone records from the CZ_TYPE field (Z).
What time of year?
50% of its severe thunderstorm wind events since 1962 fell in June and July. The two busiest months are in violet.
The values, month by month
Jan 102 · Feb 89 · Mar 62 · Apr 61 · May 104 · Jun 122 · Jul 108 · Aug 84 · Sep 84 · Oct 29 · Nov 18 · Dec 67 (records).
Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, records by the month they began.
Federal disaster declarations for Frederick County
FEMA's register lists 19 declarations that include Frederick County: 12 major disasters, 7 emergencies and 0 fire management assistance declarations. Most were for hurricane (6) and snowstorm (4).
| Declared | Number | Type | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | EM-3631 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2020-04-02 | DR-4512 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020-03-13 | EM-3448 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2018-09-11 | EM-3403 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| 2016-03-07 | DR-4262 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| 2012-11-26 | DR-4092 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2012-10-29 | EM-3359 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2012-07-27 | DR-4072 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Straight-Line Winds |
| 2010-04-27 | DR-1905 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storms and Snowstorms |
| 2005-09-12 | EM-3240 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| 2003-09-18 | DR-1491 | Hurricane | Hurricane Isabel |
| 2003-03-27 | DR-1458 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm, Record/Near Record Snowfall, Heavy Rain,Floodind, and Mudslide |
| 2000-02-28 | DR-1318 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| 1996-09-06 | DR-1135 | Hurricane | Hurricane Fran and Associated Severe Storm Cond |
| 1996-01-27 | DR-1098 | Flood | Flooding, High Winds, and Wind Driven Rain |
| 1996-01-13 | DR-1086 | Snowstorm | Blizzard of 96 (Severe Snow Storm) |
| 1993-03-25 | EM-3112 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 1977-07-23 | EM-3046 | Drought | Drought |
| 1972-06-23 | DR-339 | Flood | Tropical Storm Agnes |
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (v2), declarations through October 2, 2026; one declaration is counted once however many areas it names. OpenFEMA dataset page.
How many floods has Frederick County had?
NOAA's Storm Events Database holds 150 flood or flash flood records for Frederick County from 1996 to 2025, on 74 days, with 1 death. By flood insurance claims since 1978 (OpenFEMA, as of September 8, 2026), Frederick County ranks 1604th of 2,942 U.S. counties.
| Storm | Began | Records | Deaths in the county |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hurricane Fran | 1996-09-06 | 1 | 0 |
The National Flood Insurance Program has paid $552,000 on 57 claims filed in Frederick County; the most in one year was 7 in 2018. Claims count insured losses only: uninsured flood damage is not in this file.
The values, year by year
1978: 5 · 1979: 5 · 1981: 1 · 1987: 1 · 1988: 2 · 1992: 2 · 1996: 5 · 1999: 1 · 2001: 2 · 2003: 1 · 2004: 6 · 2005: 1 · 2011: 2 · 2012: 4 · 2013: 1 · 2014: 2 · 2016: 1 · 2017: 1 · 2018: 7 · 2021: 1 · 2022: 1 · 2024: 3 · 2025: 2; the other years: 0.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA NFIP Redacted Claims, as of September 8, 2026; claims by year of loss, payments in the dollars of the year paid. OpenFEMA dataset page.
FEMA's modeled risk for Frederick County
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Frederick County Relatively Low overall, with an expected annual loss of $20.0 million. These are FEMA's model estimates of future loss from 18 hazards, not a count of what happened; they can differ from the record above.
| Hazard | Risk rating | Expected annual loss | Modeled frequency |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | $874K | 4.1 modeled event-days a year |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | $147K | 13 a year (modeled) |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | $879K | 5 a year (modeled) |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | $21K | once in about 2 years (modeled) |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | $1.7M | once in about 17 years (modeled) |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | $1.0M | 3.3 modeled event-days a year |
| Riverine Flooding | Relatively Low | $13M | 2.5 a year (modeled) |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | $633K | once in about 812 years (modeled) |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, county table, December 2025 release. FEMA's National Risk Index map.
Counties that share a border with Frederick County
Source: U.S. Census Bureau county adjacency file; NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, records since 1950. The Census Bureau's adjacency file.
Next
- Tornadoes in VirginiaEvery Virginia tornado since 1950 and the counties with the most per square mile
- Severe thunderstorm wind in VirginiaThe state's severe thunderstorm wind events, by county, year and month
- The Virginia recordEvery hazard in the state, its deadliest events and its federal declarations
- FEMA's risk rating for each hazard in Frederick CountyThe hazard risk calculator: 18 hazards beside the county's record
- Download Frederick County's FEMA declarations (CSV)19 rows: every declaration that named the county, for your own analysis