FEMA Records
14
Low volume
Virginia · FEMA + NOAA + National Risk Index
Winchester (city), VA
14 FEMA disaster declarations (1972-2026), with a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Very Low. Most common hazard: Hurricane.
- 14
- FEMA declarations
- 8
- Major disasters
- 17
- NRI risk · Very Low
- Hurricane
- Top hazard
The verdict
Winchester (city) has a nationally busy FEMA history: 14 declarations, more than 20% of counties in this registry. But the state comparison tempers that reading: the total is 31% below the Virginia county mean. FEMA's separate National Risk Index places the county safer than 17%; that score models loss and vulnerability rather than counting declarations.
- Safer than 17%
- of U.S. counties for FEMA National Risk Index score
- Very Low
- FEMA National Risk Index rating
- 14
- FEMA declarations vs 21 national county avg
- 17
- NFIP flood insurance claims filed
FEMA's National Risk Index and its declaration registry are separate measures. This county's registry includes Major Disaster (DR) and Emergency (EM) records; an EM authorizes a narrower set of federal assistance than a DR.
How does Winchester (city) compare?
Winchester (city) vs. all counties in this dataset
FEMA disaster declarations, all-time
14 20th percentile higher than 20% of 3,266 counties
Each bar is a band; taller bars hold more counties. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count, share, and where it sits relative to this entry.
Source FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 · 2026-08-03
Winchester (city)'s FEMA Risk Index score
FEMA National Risk Index composite score vs. the Virginia county average
Which hazard drives modeled loss here?
FEMA's modeled annual dollar loss for Winchester (city) is led by Riverine Flooding (about $3.5M Expected Annual Loss, Historical Loss Ratio Relatively Low), while Hurricane carries the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively Low). EAL and risk score use different inputs; they need not agree.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025 release) - Expected Annual Loss vs composite risk rating by hazard.
What does Winchester (city)'s hazard record show?
Declaration frequency
Nationally, Winchester (city)'s 14 FEMA records form a high-volume history; within Virginia, however, the count is 31% below the county mean. 8 entries carry the Major Disaster classification. The largest incident group is Hurricane, appearing 4 times. The full 54-year record averages 0.3 declarations annually. A DR label alone does not say whether Individual Assistance, Public Assistance, or both followed.
FEMA National Risk Index
This county's FEMA National Risk Index composite lands at 16.9/100 (Very Low), a modest reading against the rest of the country. Expected Annual Loss is rated Very Low (roughly $6.1M in annualized losses), tempered or compounded by a Relatively Moderate social-vulnerability score and Relatively Moderate community-resilience score. Even the county's top-rated hazard, Hurricane, only reaches Relatively Low on FEMA's scale, none of the 18 modeled hazards stand out here. FEMA's modeled frequency puts that hazard at roughly once every 19 years here, based on 14 historical events on record.
Reading the federal records together
This county has a small entry in FEMA's NFIP paid-claims table: 17 claims and $100.6K paid in total. PlainHazard calls 1-49 claims a light registry record, a label for this dataset rather than a finding that flood exposure is low. A short claims history can also reflect insurance take-up, the period covered, or losses that were never insured.
Start with the state benchmark: a Virginia county averages 20.4 federal declaration records, while Winchester (city) has 14. The gap is 31% below that mean. Fewer entries indicate a quieter history of recorded federal actions, not immunity from a hazard and not a prediction about what happens next.
48 /100
Historical Activity Index
Moderate historical activity
Winchester (city), VA · PlainHazard-derived composite from federal records
This 0–100 index is an explicit PlainHazard composite from FEMA declaration history only on the county surface (this DB has no county-level NOAA damage row) . It is not FEMA's National Risk Index, not a forecast, and not a safety, insurance, or preparedness rating. Open the calculator · Methodology
FEMA Declarations (1953–present) Moderate
10/30
14 OpenFEMA declarations, full ingest window (0.7x national county average)
County Disaster Density Moderate
9/25
14 declarations (0.7x state county average of 20)
Major Disaster Share High
14/25
8 of 14 declarations are major disasters (57%)
Hazard Diversity Very High
15/20
6 different disaster types declared in Winchester (city)
Historical Declaration Activity
Activity Band
High
vs. Virginia Avg
-31%
State avg: 20.4
vs. National Avg
-32%
National avg: 20.7
Avg Per Year
0.3
Over 54 years
FEMA NRI 8-hazard radar - Winchester (city)
How to read this radar
Each axis: NRI risk rating (Very Low-Very High) on a 0-100 scale. Rounder = broad exposure; spiky = one or two hazards dominate.
Major Disaster share
57%
Major-heavy
NRI risk score
17
Very Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Per-county per-hazard ratings, December 2025 release
How often does each hazard strike Winchester (city)?
FEMA's National Risk Index models a historical event count and an annualized frequency for each hazard type. Most hazards are expressed as modeled occurrences per year; FEMA expresses drought and heat-wave frequency as event-days per year. These modeled frequencies are not forecasts.
| Hazard | NRI Risk Rating | Recurrence |
|---|---|---|
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | roughly once every 19 years |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | roughly once every 822 years |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | an average of 13 times per year |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 3.3 modeled event-days per year |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | an average of 4.7 times per year |
| Hail | Relatively Low | an average of 2.8 times per year |
| Riverine Flooding | Very Low | roughly once every 2 years |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | an average of 37 times per year |
| Tornado | Very Low | roughly once every 271 years |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | roughly once every 3 years |
| Landslide | Very Low | roughly once every 200 years |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | an average of 1.9 times per year |
| Wildfire | Very Low | roughly once every 8,103 years |
| Drought | No Rating | 3.9 modeled event-days per year |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Modeled annualized frequency; drought and heat wave use event-days/year, December 2025 release
Disaster Types
Hurricane 4
Snowstorm 4
Biological 2
Severe Storm 2
Winter Storm 1
Flood 1
What Hurricane declarations mean here
Hurricane is the most frequent declaration type on Winchester (city)'s federal record, 29% of its declarations. Atlantic tropical systems run on a defined season, 1 June to 30 November, with most activity concentrated between August and October; Pacific and territorial basins run on their own calendars. A single named storm routinely produces one declaration number covering a long corridor of counties at once, well inland as well as on the coast, which is why an affected county's count can jump by several in one year without several separate events having occurred.
One practical distinction matters when reading these records: a tropical declaration usually bundles wind, storm surge and inland rainfall flooding under a single incident, but the insurance behind them is split. Wind damage falls to property insurers, while flood and surge damage is covered only under a separate National Flood Insurance Program policy. That is why a county can show heavy declaration activity and a comparatively small NFIP claims record, or the reverse.
Declaration counts describe past federal action. They are a record of what was declared, not a forecast of future hazard probability.
Declaration Types
What DR / EM / FM mean
FEMA categorizes declarations as Major Disasters (DR), Emergencies (EM), or Fire Management Assistance (FM).
Major Disaster - 8 57.1%
of all 14 declarations
Emergency - 6 42.9%
of all 14 declarations
FEMA Declarations Timeline
| Year | Declarations | |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | |
| 2020 | 2 | |
| 2018 | 1 | |
| 2016 | 1 | |
| 2013 | 1 | |
| 2012 | 1 | |
| 2010 | 1 | |
| 2005 | 1 | |
| 2003 | 2 | |
| 1996 | 1 | |
| 1993 | 1 | |
| 1972 | 1 | |
Disaster Declarations
How the 14 FEMA declarations break into federal action codes (DR / EM / FM). Same DISTINCT grain as the table below.
Download these 14 declarations as CSV . FEMA source data is public domain; our derived presentation is CC0.
| DR# | Title | Type | Incident | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3631 | SEVERE WINTER STORM | EM | Winter Storm | 2026-01-23 |
| 4512 | COVID-19 PANDEMIC | DR | Biological | 2020-04-02 |
| 3448 | COVID-19 | EM | Biological | 2020-03-13 |
| 3403 | HURRICANE FLORENCE | EM | Hurricane | 2018-09-11 |
| 4262 | SEVERE WINTER STORM AND SNOWSTORM | DR | Snowstorm | 2016-03-07 |
| 3359 | HURRICANE SANDY | EM | Hurricane | 2012-10-29 |
| 4072 | SEVERE STORMS AND STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS | DR | Severe Storm | 2012-07-27 |
| 1905 | SEVERE WINTER STORMS AND SNOWSTORMS | DR | Snowstorm | 2010-04-27 |
| 3240 | HURRICANE KATRINA EVACUATION | EM | Hurricane | 2005-09-12 |
| 1491 | HURRICANE ISABEL | DR | Hurricane | 2003-09-18 |
| 1458 | SEVERE WINTER STORM, RECORD/NEAR RECORD SNOWFALL, HEAVY RAIN,FLOODIND, AND MUDSLIDE | DR | Severe Storm | 2003-03-27 |
| 1086 | BLIZZARD OF 96 (SEVERE SNOW STORM) | DR | Snowstorm | 1996-01-13 |
| 3112 | SEVERE WINTER STORM | EM | Snowstorm | 1993-03-25 |
| 339 | TROPICAL STORM AGNES | DR | Flood | 1972-06-23 |
Storm Events in Virginia
Statewide NOAA context only. PlainHazard does not currently attribute these state totals to Winchester (city).
| Storm Type | Events | Fatalities | Injuries | Property Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunderstorm Wind | 8,940 | 13 | 31 | $123.1M |
| Flood | 2,300 | 4 | 0 | $85.1M |
| Winter Weather | 2,049 | 6 | 32 | $902.0K |
| Flash Flood | 1,942 | 13 | 4 | $244.2M |
| Heavy Rain | 1,566 | 0 | 0 | $2.5M |
Source: NOAA Storm Events Database State-level aggregated data, 2015-2025
NFIP Flood Insurance Claims
Total Claims
17
Total Paid
$100.6K
Avg Per Claim
$5.9K
Source: FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA Claims Data
FEMA National Risk Index
Overall Risk
Very Low
Score: 16.9/100
Expected Annual Loss
Very Low
$6.1M/year
Social Vulnerability
Relatively Moderate
Community Resilience
Relatively Moderate
Hazard Risk Breakdown
Hurricane Relatively Low
Earthquake Relatively Low
Winter Weather Relatively Low
Heat Wave Relatively Low
Strong Wind Relatively Low
Hail Relatively Low
Riverine Flooding Very Low
Lightning Relatively Low
Tornado Very Low
Ice Storm Very Low
Landslide Very Low
Cold Wave Very Low
Wildfire Very Low
Drought No Rating
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) Ratings reflect relative scores among all US counties. Data: hazards.fema.gov/nri
The model's sharpest exposure here: Hurricane
Hurricane exposure in the model bundles the three ways a tropical system does harm, which arrive on different timescales and are insured differently: wind, storm surge on the coast, and rainfall flooding that can reach far inland well after landfall.
For Winchester (city) the two measures on this page point the same way: Hurricane is the county's highest-rated modeled hazard (Relatively Low), and Hurricane declarations also lead its federal record. Where the model and the declaration history agree, the reading is comparatively straightforward, the hazard is both expected and repeatedly realised.
National Risk Index ratings are modeled estimates of expected annual loss, not predictions of what will happen in any given year.
Data-matched county comparisons
Winchester (city)'s closest FEMA peer: Marshall County, IL
Comparisons use published FEMA declaration fields plus the National Risk Index composite for Winchester (city). Record similarity, not a safety rating.
Closest declaration profiles
Winchester (city) shows 14 FEMA declarations, led by Hurricane.
Similar Major-disaster share
Winchester (city): 8 of 14 of its declarations are Major.
Similar modeled NRI score
Winchester (city): NRI composite 16.9 (Very Low).
How these peers are chosen
Cohort: Published U.S. county equivalents outside the source state or territory. Each metric keeps six ETL candidates; three unique destinations are shown after de-duplicating across axes. Declaration-volume ranking combines count and Major-disaster share and prefers a different leading incident type; Major-share ranks the Major fraction adjusted for volume; NRI ranks the modeled composite score only.
Retained FEMA snapshot feed for Winchester (city) - capture-dated entries only.
Further reading for this county
Most disaster-prone counties
With 14 FEMA declarations, Winchester (city) sits in the high-volume declaration band - see how that count ranks against other U.S. counties.
More PlainHazard guides
- Most disaster-prone counties - U.S. counties ranked by FEMA declaration totals.
- Understanding disaster data - declarations vs storm events vs NRI scores.
- Preparing for natural disasters - household checklist (not county-specific advice).
Related
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most common disaster type in Winchester (city)?
The most common disaster type in Winchester (city) is Hurricane, with 4 declarations. Other disaster types include Snowstorm (4), Biological (2), Severe Storm (2).
How does Winchester (city)'s FEMA declaration record compare with the Virginia average?
The typical Virginia county has 20.4 FEMA declaration records; Winchester (city) has 14, or 31% fewer. Against the national county mean of 20.7, this county's total is 32% lower. The comparison is historical and says nothing about the probability of a future event.
How many major FEMA disaster declarations has Winchester (city) received?
Winchester (city) has received 8 major disaster declarations, representing 57% of all 14 disaster declarations.
How many flood insurance claims has Winchester (city) filed?
Winchester (city) has 17 National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims totaling $100.6K in payments, with an average of $5.9K per claim.
Does FEMA's top risk-rated hazard match the highest Expected Annual Loss in Winchester (city)?
No. In Winchester (city), Hurricane has the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively Low), while Riverine Flooding leads Expected Annual Loss at about $3.5M. FEMA's risk score and dollar-loss model use different inputs, so the leaders often differ.
What was the worst year for disasters in Winchester (city)?
The most active year for disaster declarations in Winchester (city) was 2003, with 2 declarations. The county has FEMA disaster data spanning 1972 to 2026.
What is the FEMA National Risk Index score for Winchester (city)?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, Winchester (city), Virginia has an overall risk score of 16.9 out of 100 (Very Low). On social vulnerability the county rates Relatively Moderate; on community resilience, Relatively Moderate. The Expected Annual Loss (EAL) score is Very Low, representing $6.1M in annualized losses.
Which natural hazard poses the greatest risk to Winchester (city)?
FEMA's NRI data points to Winchester (city) as of the latest release is Hurricane (risk rating: Relatively Low). Other significant hazards include Earthquake (Relatively Low) and Winter Weather (Relatively Low). FEMA's modeled event frequency puts hurricane here at roughly once every 19 years, drawn from 14 historical events on record. These scores are based on FEMA's analysis of historical event frequency, exposed assets, and community vulnerability.
Data Sources & Methodology
Disaster declaration data comes from the FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 API, which includes all federally declared disasters, emergencies, and fire management assistance grants.
Storm event data is sourced from the NOAA Storm Events Database (2015-2025), which tracks significant weather events including thunderstorms, tornadoes, floods, and winter storms.
Flood insurance data comes from the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA claims dataset.
This data is provided for informational purposes only. FEMA disaster declarations represent federal response actions and may not capture all local emergencies or weather events.
What this means for Winchester (city)
Against a Virginia county mean of 20 declarations, Winchester (city), VA records 14, or 31% fewer. PlainHazard classifies that historical total as high activity.
- Major Disaster is the largest group (8 of 14) in a declaration history that remains below its state benchmark; frequency here is not a forecast. Virginia overview
- Nationally the county exceeds 20% of recorded county totals, but its own Virginia benchmark is higher. The ranking keeps those two contexts separate. Most-disaster rankings
- A short NFIP claims file cannot establish low flood exposure; the data guide explains the limits of each federal measure. Disaster-data guide
A below-average federal record is not a safety guarantee. Use National Weather Service alerts and local emergency-management notices for present conditions, not this historical comparison.
PlainHazard derives this profile from FEMA's Disaster Declarations Summaries and National Risk Index data. The declaration comparison covers 3,266 U.S. counties and county equivalents in this database, refreshed as of 2026-08-03. Read our methodology - how this data is sourced, computed, and verified.
All federal data sources used on this page
- FEMA OpenFEMA, Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 - all federally-declared disasters for this county. fema.gov/openfema/disaster-declarations
- FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) - per-county per-hazard risk ratings and expected annual loss. hazards.fema.gov/nri
- NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database - state-level storm/severe-weather event records, 2015-2025. ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents
Data sourced from official public datasets. See our methodology for details. Retrieved and formatted by PlainHazard Editorial
Verify with FEMA → · Verify with FEMA NRI → · Verify with NOAA →
Every figure on PlainHazard is rendered directly from FEMA federal disaster data, no number is typed in by an editor. See our editorial standards & corrections policy, the methodology behind these numbers, or national statistics report, the data & editorial changelog, or report a data error.