FEMA Records
17
Below median
Georgia · FEMA + NOAA + National Risk Index
Forsyth County, GA
17 FEMA disaster declarations (1974-2026), with a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Moderate. Most common hazard: Hurricane.
- 17
- FEMA declarations
- 9
- Major disasters
- 86
- NRI risk · Relatively Moderate
- Hurricane
- Top hazard
The verdict
Forsyth County has a nationally busy FEMA history: 17 declarations, more than 32% of counties in this registry. But the state comparison tempers that reading: the total is 2% below the Georgia county mean. FEMA's separate National Risk Index places the county in the riskiest 14%; that score models loss and vulnerability rather than counting declarations.
- Riskiest 14%
- of U.S. counties for FEMA National Risk Index score
- Relatively Moderate
- FEMA National Risk Index rating
- 17
- FEMA declarations vs 21 national county avg
- 66
- NFIP flood insurance claims filed
FEMA's National Risk Index and its declaration registry are separate measures. This county's registry includes Major Disaster (DR) and Emergency (EM) records; an EM authorizes a narrower set of federal assistance than a DR.
FEMA OpenFEMA declaration desk
County FIPS 13117 · Forsyth County 17 declarations · rank 2156/3,266
DECL-MID · MAJOR-MID · RANK-LOWER · PHOTO-FINISH · NRI-MID · ACT-HIGH · TYPE-LEAD · VS-ST-BELOW
- DECL-MID 17
- MAJOR-MID 53%
- RANK-LOWER #2,156
- PHOTO-FINISH Curry
- NRI-MID 86
- ACT-HIGH High
- TYPE-LEAD Hurricane
- VS-ST-BELOW -2%
Nearest declaration peer: Curry, OR (0 declaration gap)
FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 filing stamps for this county register. Read with this county → · Georgia state profile
Forsyth County among counties with fewer federal records
FEMA declaration records among Forsyth County and nearest peers by total count
- Los Angeles · largest
Los Angeles · largest
88 declarations
- Curry · near 17
Curry · near
17 declarations
- Forsyth · this county 17
Forsyth · this county
17 declarations
- Murray · near 17
Murray · near
17 declarations
- Washington · near 17
Washington · near
17 declarations
- Ujelang · smallest 1
Ujelang · smallest
1 declarations
What this shows Forsyth County carries 17 FEMA declaration records, ranked 2156 of 3,266 counties in this registry.
Forsyth County versus quieter counties in this dataset
Forsyth County among lower-declaration counties nationally
FEMA disaster declarations, all-time · Forsyth County
17 32nd percentile higher than 32% of 3,266 counties
Each bar is a band; taller bars hold more counties. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count, share, and where it sits relative to this entry.
Source FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 · 2026-08-25
Forsyth County's FEMA Risk Index score
Which hazard drives modeled loss here?
FEMA's modeled annual dollar loss for Forsyth County is led by Riverine Flooding (about $57.8M Expected Annual Loss, Historical Loss Ratio Relatively High), while Tornado carries the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively High). EAL and risk score use different inputs; they need not agree.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025 release) - Expected Annual Loss vs composite risk rating by hazard.
What does Forsyth County's hazard record show?
Reading the federal records together
The NFIP claims register shows a middle-volume loss record here: 66 paid claims, totaling $928.3K. PlainHazard uses 50-499 claims for this descriptive band; FEMA does not publish it as a safety or coverage category. The $14.1K average describes payments on recorded claims only, leaving uninsured damage and properties without a claim outside the measure.
Start with the state benchmark: a Georgia county averages 17.4 federal declaration records, while Forsyth County has 17. The gap is 2% below that mean. Fewer entries indicate a quieter history of recorded federal actions, not immunity from a hazard and not a prediction about what happens next.
FEMA National Risk Index
This county sits among the highest-risk counties nationally on FEMA's National Risk Index, a composite score of 86.1/100 (Relatively Moderate). Expected Annual Loss is rated Relatively Moderate (roughly $89.6M in annualized losses). Social vulnerability reads Very Low and community resilience Relatively High, both critical modifiers of realized harm here. Of the 18 hazards FEMA models, Tornado stands out as the sharpest exposure here, rated Relatively High. FEMA's modeled frequency puts that hazard at roughly once every 7 years here, based on 8 historical events on record.
57 /100
Historical Activity Index
High historical activity
Forsyth County, GA · PlainHazard-derived composite from federal records
This 0–100 index is an explicit PlainHazard composite from FEMA declaration history only on the county surface (this DB has no county-level NOAA damage row) . It is not FEMA's National Risk Index, not a forecast, and not a safety, insurance, or preparedness rating. Open the calculator · Methodology
FEMA Declarations (1953–present) Moderate
12/30
17 OpenFEMA declarations, full ingest window (0.8x national county average)
County Disaster Density Moderate
12/25
17 declarations (1.0x state county average of 17)
Major Disaster Share High
13/25
9 of 17 declarations are major disasters (53%)
Hazard Diversity Very High
20/20
9 different disaster types declared in Forsyth County
FEMA NRI 8-hazard radar - Forsyth County
How to read this radar
Each axis: NRI risk rating (Very Low-Very High) on a 0-100 scale. Rounder = broad exposure; spiky = one or two hazards dominate.
Major Disaster share
53%
Major-heavy
NRI risk score
86
Relatively Moderate
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Per-county per-hazard ratings, December 2025 release
How often does each hazard strike Forsyth County?
FEMA's National Risk Index models a historical event count and an annualized frequency for each hazard type. Most hazards are expressed as modeled occurrences per year; FEMA expresses drought and heat-wave frequency as event-days per year. These modeled frequencies are not forecasts.
| Hazard | NRI Risk Rating | Recurrence |
|---|---|---|
| Tornado | Relatively High | roughly once every 7 years |
| Riverine Flooding | Relatively Moderate | roughly once every 1 years |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | an average of 5.5 times per year |
| Lightning | Relatively High | an average of 60 times per year |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | roughly once every 413 years |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Moderate | roughly once every 1 years |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | an average of 1.1 times per year |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | roughly once every 2 years |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | an average of 2.6 times per year |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 1.8 modeled event-days per year |
| Hurricane | Very Low | roughly once every 40 years |
| Wildfire | Very Low | roughly once every 2,200 years |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | an average of 3.5 times per year |
| Drought | No Rating | 33 modeled event-days per year |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Modeled annualized frequency; drought and heat wave use event-days/year, December 2025 release
Disaster Types
Hurricane 6
Biological 2
Severe Ice Storm 2
Severe Storm 2
Winter Storm 1
Tropical Storm 1
Snowstorm 1
Drought 1
Tornado 1
What Hurricane declarations mean here
Hurricane is the most frequent declaration type on Forsyth County's federal record, 35% of its declarations. Atlantic tropical systems run on a defined season, 1 June to 30 November, with most activity concentrated between August and October; Pacific and territorial basins run on their own calendars. A single named storm routinely produces one declaration number covering a long corridor of counties at once, well inland as well as on the coast, which is why an affected county's count can jump by several in one year without several separate events having occurred.
One practical distinction matters when reading these records: a tropical declaration usually bundles wind, storm surge and inland rainfall flooding under a single incident, but the insurance behind them is split. Wind damage falls to property insurers, while flood and surge damage is covered only under a separate National Flood Insurance Program policy. That is why a county can show heavy declaration activity and a comparatively small NFIP claims record, or the reverse.
Declaration counts describe past federal action. They are a record of what was declared, not a forecast of future hazard probability.
Declaration Types
What DR / EM / FM mean
FEMA categorizes declarations as Major Disasters (DR), Emergencies (EM), or Fire Management Assistance (FM).
Major Disaster - 9 52.9%
of all 17 declarations
Emergency - 8 47.1%
of all 17 declarations
FEMA Declarations Timeline
| Year | Declarations | |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | |
| 2024 | 1 | |
| 2021 | 1 | |
| 2020 | 2 | |
| 2017 | 2 | |
| 2015 | 1 | |
| 2014 | 1 | |
| 2005 | 1 | |
| 2004 | 1 | |
| 2000 | 1 | |
| 1998 | 1 | |
| 1996 | 1 | |
| 1993 | 1 | |
| 1977 | 1 | |
| 1974 | 1 | |
Disaster Declarations
How the 17 FEMA declarations break into federal action codes (DR / EM / FM). Same DISTINCT grain as the table below.
Download these 17 declarations as CSV . FEMA source data is public domain; our derived presentation is CC0.
| DR# | Title | Type | Incident | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3642 | SEVERE WINTER STORM | EM | Winter Storm | 2026-01-24 |
| 3616 | HURRICANE HELENE | EM | Tropical Storm | 2024-09-26 |
| 4579 | TROPICAL STORM ZETA | DR | Hurricane | 2021-01-12 |
| 4501 | COVID-19 PANDEMIC | DR | Biological | 2020-03-29 |
| 3464 | COVID-19 | EM | Biological | 2020-03-13 |
| 4338 | HURRICANE IRMA | DR | Hurricane | 2017-09-15 |
| 3387 | HURRICANE IRMA | EM | Hurricane | 2017-09-08 |
| 4215 | SEVERE WINTER STORM | DR | Severe Ice Storm | 2015-04-20 |
| 3368 | SEVERE WINTER STORM | EM | Severe Ice Storm | 2014-02-11 |
| 3218 | HURRICANE KATRINA EVACUATION | EM | Hurricane | 2005-09-05 |
| 1554 | HURRICANE IVAN | DR | Hurricane | 2004-09-18 |
| 1311 | SEVERE WINTER STORM | DR | Severe Storm | 2000-01-28 |
| 1209 | SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 1998-03-11 |
| 1071 | HURRICANE OPAL | DR | Hurricane | 1995-10-10 |
| 3097 | SEVERE SNOWFALL, WINTER STORM | EM | Snowstorm | 1993-03-15 |
| 3044 | DROUGHT | EM | Drought | 1977-07-20 |
| 425 | TORNADOES | DR | Tornado | 1974-04-05 |
Storm Events in Georgia
Statewide NOAA context only. PlainHazard does not currently attribute these state totals to Forsyth County.
| Storm Type | Events | Fatalities | Injuries | Property Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunderstorm Wind | 9,617 | 15 | 75 | $65.4M |
| Drought | 1,363 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Hail | 1,257 | 0 | 0 | $61.8M |
| Flash Flood | 1,154 | 0 | 3 | $29.3M |
| Tropical Storm | 655 | 28 | 19 | $855.3M |
Source: NOAA Storm Events Database State-level aggregated data, 2015-2025
NFIP Flood Insurance Claims
Total Claims
66
Total Paid
$928.3K
Avg Per Claim
$14.1K
Source: FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA Claims Data
FEMA National Risk Index
Overall Risk
Relatively Moderate
Score: 86.1/100
Expected Annual Loss
Relatively Moderate
$89.6M/year
Social Vulnerability
Very Low
Community Resilience
Relatively High
Hazard Risk Breakdown
Tornado Relatively High
Riverine Flooding Relatively Moderate
Hail Relatively Moderate
Lightning Relatively High
Earthquake Relatively Low
Ice Storm Relatively Moderate
Cold Wave Relatively Moderate
Landslide Relatively Low
Strong Wind Relatively Moderate
Heat Wave Relatively Low
Hurricane Very Low
Wildfire Very Low
Winter Weather Relatively Low
Drought No Rating
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) Ratings reflect relative scores among all US counties. Data: hazards.fema.gov/nri
The model's sharpest exposure here: Tornado
Tornado exposure is the most spatially concentrated in the model: total destruction along a narrow corridor with intact property either side. County-level averages therefore understate severity badly for anyone actually in the path, and overstate it for everyone else.
Worth noting for Forsyth County: the model and the federal record do NOT point at the same hazard. Tornado carries the highest modeled rating (Relatively High), while the county's declaration history is led by Hurricane. That is not a contradiction, the two measure genuinely different things. Declarations record federal ACTION, which requires damage costly enough to exceed state and local capacity; the Risk Index models EXPECTED annual loss across all 18 hazards whether or not any declaration ever followed. A hazard can be the county's largest modeled exposure and never once have driven a declaration.
National Risk Index ratings are modeled estimates of expected annual loss, not predictions of what will happen in any given year.
Data-matched county comparisons
Forsyth County's closest FEMA peer: Faulkner County, AR
Comparisons use published FEMA declaration fields plus the National Risk Index composite for Forsyth County. Record similarity, not a safety rating.
Similar modeled NRI score
Forsyth County: NRI composite 86.1 (Relatively Moderate).
Similar Major-disaster share
Forsyth County: 9 of 17 of its declarations are Major.
Closest declaration profiles
Forsyth County shows 17 FEMA declarations, led by Hurricane.
How these peers are chosen
Cohort: Published U.S. county equivalents outside the source state or territory. Each metric keeps six ETL candidates; three unique destinations are shown after de-duplicating across axes. Declaration-volume ranking combines count and Major-disaster share and prefers a different leading incident type; Major-share ranks the Major fraction adjusted for volume; NRI ranks the modeled composite score only.
Retained FEMA snapshot feed for Forsyth County - capture-dated entries only.
Compare beyond this state
Nationwide peers by NRI score & FEMA declaration volume
Two PlainHazard-derived comparison paths for Forsyth County: nearest out-of-state National Risk Index composite and nearest FEMA declaration count (floor ≥5 records). Record similarity only, not a forecast of the next hazard.
Similar NRI composite
Nearest out-of-state counties by FEMA NRI score. This county: 86.1 (Relatively Moderate).
Similar declaration volume
Nearest out-of-state counties by FEMA declaration count. This county: 17. NRI peers are excluded so the two link sets stay distinct.
Further reading for this county
Understanding disaster data
Forsyth County's NFIP claims file (66 claims) and FEMA declaration history measure different federal records - this guide separates them from modeled NRI risk.
More PlainHazard guides
- Most disaster-prone counties - U.S. counties ranked by FEMA declaration totals.
- Understanding disaster data - declarations vs storm events vs NRI scores.
- Preparing for natural disasters - household checklist (not county-specific advice).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most common disaster type in Forsyth County?
The most common disaster type in Forsyth County is Hurricane, with 6 declarations. Other disaster types include Biological (2), Severe Ice Storm (2), Severe Storm (2).
How does Forsyth County's FEMA declaration record compare with the Georgia average?
The typical Georgia county has 17.4 FEMA declaration records; Forsyth County has 17, or 2% fewer. Against the national county mean of 20.7, this county's total is 18% lower. The comparison is historical and says nothing about the probability of a future event.
How many major FEMA disaster declarations has Forsyth County received?
Forsyth County has received 9 major disaster declarations, representing 53% of all 17 disaster declarations.
How many flood insurance claims has Forsyth County filed?
Forsyth County has 66 National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims totaling $928.3K in payments, with an average of $14.1K per claim.
Does FEMA's top risk-rated hazard match the highest Expected Annual Loss in Forsyth County?
No. In Forsyth County, Tornado has the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively High), while Riverine Flooding leads Expected Annual Loss at about $57.8M. FEMA's risk score and dollar-loss model use different inputs, so the leaders often differ.
What was the worst year for disasters in Forsyth County?
The most active year for disaster declarations in Forsyth County was 2017, with 2 declarations. The county has FEMA disaster data spanning 1974 to 2026.
What is the FEMA National Risk Index score for Forsyth County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, Forsyth County, Georgia has an overall risk score of 86.1 out of 100 (Relatively Moderate). On social vulnerability the county rates Very Low; on community resilience, Relatively High. The Expected Annual Loss (EAL) score is Relatively Moderate, representing $89.6M in annualized losses.
Which natural hazard poses the greatest risk to Forsyth County?
Based on FEMA NRI data, the highest-risk natural hazard in Forsyth County is Tornado (risk rating: Relatively High). Other significant hazards include Riverine Flooding (Relatively Moderate) and Hail (Relatively Moderate). FEMA's modeled event frequency puts tornado here at roughly once every 7 years, drawn from 8 historical events on record. The underlying methodology weighs historical event frequency against exposed assets and community vulnerability.
Data Sources & Methodology
Disaster declaration data comes from the FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 API, which includes all federally declared disasters, emergencies, and fire management assistance grants.
Storm event data is sourced from the NOAA Storm Events Database (2015-2025), which tracks significant weather events including thunderstorms, tornadoes, floods, and winter storms.
Flood insurance data comes from the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA claims dataset.
This data is provided for informational purposes only. FEMA disaster declarations represent federal response actions and may not capture all local emergencies or weather events.
FEMA OpenFEMA declarations + NRI for Forsyth County · vintage 2026-08-25 · Methodology · Georgia profile · Verify with FEMA OpenFEMA · Verify with NOAA Storm Events