FEMA Records
29
High volume
Missouri · FEMA + NOAA + National Risk Index
Lincoln County, MO
29 FEMA disaster declarations (1965-2021), with a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Low. Most common hazard: Severe Storm.
- 29
- FEMA declarations
- 22
- Major disasters
- 67
- NRI risk · Relatively Low
- Severe Storm
- Top hazard
The verdict
Two federal records point in the busier direction for Lincoln County. Its 29 FEMA declarations are 18% above the Missouri county mean and exceed the count for 85% of the 3,266 counties in this registry. Separately, FEMA's National Risk Index places it in the riskiest 33%, based on modeled expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience.
- Riskiest 33%
- of U.S. counties for FEMA National Risk Index score
- Relatively Low
- FEMA National Risk Index rating
- 29
- FEMA declarations vs 21 national county avg
- 2,253
- NFIP flood insurance claims filed
FEMA's National Risk Index and its declaration registry are separate measures. This county's registry includes Major Disaster (DR) and Emergency (EM) records; an EM authorizes a narrower set of federal assistance than a DR.
How does Lincoln County compare?
Lincoln County vs. all counties in this dataset
FEMA disaster declarations, all-time
29 Top 15% higher than 85% of 3,266 counties
Each bar is a band; taller bars hold more counties. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count, share, and where it sits relative to this entry.
Source FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 · 2026-08-03
Lincoln County's FEMA Risk Index score
FEMA National Risk Index composite score vs. the Missouri county average
Which hazard drives modeled loss here?
FEMA's modeled annual dollar loss for Lincoln County is led by Riverine Flooding (about $15.9M Expected Annual Loss, Historical Loss Ratio Relatively High), while Heat Wave carries the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively Moderate). EAL and risk score use different inputs; they need not agree.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025 release) - Expected Annual Loss vs composite risk rating by hazard.
What does Lincoln County's hazard record show?
Reading the federal records together
FEMA's NFIP table contains a substantial paid-claim history for this county: 2,253 claims and $37.1M in payments. PlainHazard labels 500 or more claims a heavy registry record; that is a reporting bucket, not an official FEMA risk grade. The average paid claim was $16.5K. NFIP totals exclude uninsured flood losses and do not measure how many properties currently carry a policy.
The declaration register points in the busier direction. Lincoln County's 29 federal records stand 18% above the Missouri county mean of 24.6. That comparison describes how often federal action was recorded, including any Major Disaster, Emergency, and Fire Management entries shown on this page; it does not convert the count into future probability.
FEMA National Risk Index
This county carries a high composite score on FEMA's National Risk Index, 67.1/100, rated Relatively Low. Its Expected Annual Loss rating is Relatively Low (roughly $31.7M in annualized losses), and a Very Low social-vulnerability profile combined with Relatively High community resilience shapes how much of that raw exposure becomes realized harm. Among the 18 modeled hazards, Heat Wave carries the county's highest rating, a mid-range Relatively Moderate. FEMA's modeled frequency puts that hazard at 12 modeled event-days per year here, based on 154 historical events on record.
Declaration frequency
The FEMA register is busy by both local and national comparisons. It contains 29 entries for Lincoln County, including 22 Major Disaster records, 18% above the Missouri county mean. Across the 56-year span, that works out to 0.5 declarations a year. Severe Storm leads the file with 15 entries. Declaration type records the federal action taken, not every assistance program approved.
73 /100
Historical Activity Index
High historical activity
Lincoln County, MO · PlainHazard-derived composite from federal records
This 0–100 index is an explicit PlainHazard composite from FEMA declaration history only on the county surface (this DB has no county-level NOAA damage row) . It is not FEMA's National Risk Index, not a forecast, and not a safety, insurance, or preparedness rating. Open the calculator · Methodology
FEMA Declarations (1953–present) High
21/30
29 OpenFEMA declarations, full ingest window (1.4x national county average)
County Disaster Density High
15/25
29 declarations (1.2x state county average of 25)
Major Disaster Share Very High
19/25
22 of 29 declarations are major disasters (76%)
Hazard Diversity Very High
18/20
7 different disaster types declared in Lincoln County
Historical Declaration Activity
Activity Band
High
vs. Missouri Avg
+18%
State avg: 24.6
vs. National Avg
+40%
National avg: 20.7
Avg Per Year
0.5
Over 56 years
FEMA NRI 8-hazard radar - Lincoln County
How to read this radar
Each axis: NRI risk rating (Very Low-Very High) on a 0-100 scale. Rounder = broad exposure; spiky = one or two hazards dominate.
Major Disaster share
76%
Mostly major
NRI risk score
67
Relatively Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Per-county per-hazard ratings, December 2025 release
How often does each hazard strike Lincoln County?
FEMA's National Risk Index models a historical event count and an annualized frequency for each hazard type. Most hazards are expressed as modeled occurrences per year; FEMA expresses drought and heat-wave frequency as event-days per year. These modeled frequencies are not forecasts.
| Hazard | NRI Risk Rating | Recurrence |
|---|---|---|
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 12 modeled event-days per year |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | roughly once every 2 years |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | an average of 5.8 times per year |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | roughly once every 282 years |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | an average of 5.2 times per year |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | roughly once every 2 years |
| Riverine Flooding | Relatively Low | an average of 1.9 times per year |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | an average of 2.3 times per year |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | an average of 50 times per year |
| Wildfire | Very Low | roughly once every 1,646 years |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | an average of 9.4 times per year |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 3.3 modeled event-days per year |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | an average of 1.1 times per year |
| Hurricane | Very Low | roughly once every 118 years |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Modeled annualized frequency; drought and heat wave use event-days/year, December 2025 release
Disaster Types
Severe Storm 15
Flood 5
Severe Ice Storm 4
Biological 2
Hurricane 1
Tornado 1
Drought 1
What Severe Storm declarations mean here
Severe Storm is the most frequent declaration type on Lincoln County's record, 52% of its declarations. In FEMA's vocabulary this covers convective weather: thunderstorm straight-line winds, large hail, and the multi-day outbreaks that often carry embedded tornadoes. Activity is heaviest in spring and summer, though the season varies by region.
These events behave differently from a hurricane on paper. Damage tends to be distributed along a storm track rather than concentrated on a coastline, and a declaration typically follows an outbreak that crossed several counties over a few days, not a single point of impact. Because the qualifying threshold is the cost of uninsured public and individual losses rather than storm intensity, two similar storms can produce a declaration in one year and none in another.
Declaration counts describe past federal action. They are a record of what was declared, not a forecast of future hazard probability.
Declaration Types
What DR / EM / FM mean
FEMA categorizes declarations as Major Disasters (DR), Emergencies (EM), or Fire Management Assistance (FM).
Major Disaster - 22 75.9%
of all 29 declarations
Emergency - 7 24.1%
of all 29 declarations
FEMA Declarations Timeline
| Year | Declarations | |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 1 | |
| 2020 | 2 | |
| 2019 | 1 | |
| 2016 | 2 | |
| 2015 | 1 | |
| 2013 | 1 | |
| 2011 | 1 | |
| 2009 | 2 | |
| 2008 | 4 | |
| 2007 | 1 | |
| 2006 | 1 | |
| 2005 | 1 | |
| 2003 | 1 | |
| 2002 | 1 | |
| 1995 | 1 | |
Show 7 earlier declaration years
| 1994 | 1 | |
| 1993 | 2 | |
| 1983 | 1 | |
| 1979 | 1 | |
| 1976 | 1 | |
| 1973 | 1 | |
| 1965 | 1 | |
Disaster Declarations
How the 29 FEMA declarations break into federal action codes (DR / EM / FM). Same DISTINCT grain as the table below.
Download these 29 declarations as CSV . FEMA source data is public domain; our derived presentation is CC0.
| DR# | Title | Type | Incident | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4612 | SEVERE STORMS, STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, TORNADOES, AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2021-09-01 |
| 4490 | COVID-19 PANDEMIC | DR | Biological | 2020-03-26 |
| 3482 | COVID-19 | EM | Biological | 2020-03-13 |
| 4451 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2019-07-09 |
| 4250 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, AND FLOODING | DR | Flood | 2016-01-21 |
| 3374 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, AND FLOODING | EM | Flood | 2016-01-02 |
| 4238 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2015-08-07 |
| 4130 | SEVERE STORMS, STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, TORNADOES, AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2013-07-18 |
| 3317 | SEVERE WINTER STORM | EM | Severe Storm | 2011-02-03 |
| 3303 | SEVERE WINTER STORM | EM | Severe Ice Storm | 2009-01-30 |
| 1809 | SEVERE STORMS, FLOODING, AND A TORNADO | DR | Severe Storm | 2008-11-13 |
| 1773 | SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2008-06-25 |
| 1749 | SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2008-03-19 |
| 1736 | SEVERE WINTER STORMS | DR | Severe Ice Storm | 2007-12-27 |
| 3281 | SEVERE WINTER STORMS | EM | Severe Ice Storm | 2007-12-12 |
| 1676 | SEVERE WINTER STORMS AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Ice Storm | 2007-01-15 |
| 1631 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2006-03-16 |
| 3232 | HURRICANE KATRINA EVACUATION | EM | Hurricane | 2005-09-10 |
| 1463 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2003-05-06 |
| 1412 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2002-05-06 |
Show 9 earlier declaration records
| DR# | Title | Type | Incident | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1054 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, HAIL, FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 1995-06-02 |
| 1023 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 1994-04-21 |
| 995 | SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1993-07-09 |
| 989 | SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1993-05-11 |
| 672 | SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1982-12-10 |
| 579 | TORNADOES, TORRENTIAL RAIN & FLOODING | DR | Tornado | 1979-04-21 |
| 3017 | DROUGHT | EM | Drought | 1976-09-24 |
| 372 | HEAVY RAINS, TORNADOES & FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 1973-04-19 |
| 198 | FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 1965-06-14 |
Storm Events in Missouri
Statewide NOAA context only. PlainHazard does not currently attribute these state totals to Lincoln County.
| Storm Type | Events | Fatalities | Injuries | Property Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunderstorm Wind | 6,391 | 30 | 52 | $63.4M |
| Hail | 4,411 | 0 | 1 | $86.1M |
| Flash Flood | 2,399 | 47 | 14 | $406.6M |
| Flood | 1,810 | 25 | 7 | $304.6M |
| Drought | 1,033 | 0 | 350 | $53.6M |
Source: NOAA Storm Events Database State-level aggregated data, 2015-2025
NFIP Flood Insurance Claims
Total Claims
2,253
Total Paid
$37.1M
Avg Per Claim
$16.5K
Source: FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA Claims Data
FEMA National Risk Index
Overall Risk
Relatively Low
Score: 67.1/100
Expected Annual Loss
Relatively Low
$31.7M/year
Social Vulnerability
Very Low
Community Resilience
Relatively High
Hazard Risk Breakdown
Heat Wave Relatively Moderate
Landslide Relatively Low
Strong Wind Relatively Moderate
Earthquake Relatively Low
Hail Relatively Moderate
Tornado Relatively Moderate
Riverine Flooding Relatively Low
Cold Wave Relatively Moderate
Lightning Relatively Moderate
Wildfire Very Low
Winter Weather Relatively Low
Drought Relatively Low
Ice Storm Relatively Low
Hurricane Very Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) Ratings reflect relative scores among all US counties. Data: hazards.fema.gov/nri
The model's sharpest exposure here: Heat Wave
Heat Wave is measured in event-days per year rather than discrete events, and it is the hazard whose harm is most consistently undercounted: its toll is health and mortality, concentrated among people without cooling, rather than visible damage to property.
Worth noting for Lincoln County: the model and the federal record do NOT point at the same hazard. Heat Wave carries the highest modeled rating (Relatively Moderate), while the county's declaration history is led by Severe Storm. That is not a contradiction, the two measure genuinely different things. Declarations record federal ACTION, which requires damage costly enough to exceed state and local capacity; the Risk Index models EXPECTED annual loss across all 18 hazards whether or not any declaration ever followed. A hazard can be the county's largest modeled exposure and never once have driven a declaration.
National Risk Index ratings are modeled estimates of expected annual loss, not predictions of what will happen in any given year.
Data-matched county comparisons
Lincoln County's closest FEMA peer: Montgomery County, PA
Comparisons use published FEMA declaration fields plus the National Risk Index composite for Lincoln County. Record similarity, not a safety rating.
Closest declaration profiles
Lincoln County shows 29 FEMA declarations, led by Severe Storm.
Similar Major-disaster share
Lincoln County: 22 of 29 of its declarations are Major.
Similar modeled NRI score
Lincoln County: NRI composite 67.1 (Relatively Low).
How these peers are chosen
Cohort: Published U.S. county equivalents outside the source state or territory. Each metric keeps six ETL candidates; three unique destinations are shown after de-duplicating across axes. Declaration-volume ranking combines count and Major-disaster share and prefers a different leading incident type; Major-share ranks the Major fraction adjusted for volume; NRI ranks the modeled composite score only.
Retained FEMA snapshot feed for Lincoln County - capture-dated entries only.
Further reading for this county
Understanding disaster data
Lincoln County's NFIP claims file (2,253 claims) and FEMA declaration history measure different federal records - this guide separates them from modeled NRI risk.
More PlainHazard guides
- Most disaster-prone counties - U.S. counties ranked by FEMA declaration totals.
- Understanding disaster data - declarations vs storm events vs NRI scores.
- Preparing for natural disasters - household checklist (not county-specific advice).
Related
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most common disaster type in Lincoln County?
The most common disaster type in Lincoln County is Severe Storm, with 15 declarations. Other disaster types include Flood (5), Severe Ice Storm (4), Biological (2).
How does Lincoln County's FEMA declaration record compare with the Missouri average?
FEMA lists 29 declaration records for Lincoln County. That is 18% above the Missouri county mean of 24.6. Its count is also 40% above the national county mean of 20.7. A larger declaration history records more federal actions; it is not a forecast of the county's next hazard.
How many major FEMA disaster declarations has Lincoln County received?
Lincoln County has received 22 major disaster declarations, representing 76% of all 29 disaster declarations.
How many flood insurance claims has Lincoln County filed?
Lincoln County has 2,253 National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims totaling $37.1M in payments, with an average of $16.5K per claim.
Does FEMA's top risk-rated hazard match the highest Expected Annual Loss in Lincoln County?
No. In Lincoln County, Heat Wave has the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively Moderate), while Riverine Flooding leads Expected Annual Loss at about $15.9M. FEMA's risk score and dollar-loss model use different inputs, so the leaders often differ.
What was the worst year for disasters in Lincoln County?
The most active year for disaster declarations in Lincoln County was 2008, with 4 declarations. The county has FEMA disaster data spanning 1965 to 2021.
What is the FEMA National Risk Index score for Lincoln County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, Lincoln County, Missouri has an overall risk score of 67.1 out of 100 (Relatively Low). The county's social vulnerability rating is Very Low and community resilience is Relatively High. The Expected Annual Loss (EAL) score is Relatively Low, representing $31.7M in annualized losses.
Which natural hazard poses the greatest risk to Lincoln County?
FEMA's NRI data points to Lincoln County as of the latest release is Heat Wave (risk rating: Relatively Moderate). Other significant hazards include Landslide (Relatively Low) and Strong Wind (Relatively Moderate). FEMA's modeled event frequency puts heat wave here at 12 modeled event-days per year, drawn from 154 historical events on record. FEMA derives these ratings from historical event frequency, the assets exposed, and the community's vulnerability profile.
Data Sources & Methodology
Disaster declaration data comes from the FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 API, which includes all federally declared disasters, emergencies, and fire management assistance grants.
Storm event data is sourced from the NOAA Storm Events Database (2015-2025), which tracks significant weather events including thunderstorms, tornadoes, floods, and winter storms.
Flood insurance data comes from the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA claims dataset.
This data is provided for informational purposes only. FEMA disaster declarations represent federal response actions and may not capture all local emergencies or weather events.
What this means for Lincoln County
Lincoln County, MO has 29 federal declaration records, 18% more than the Missouri county mean of 25; its history sits in PlainHazard's high activity band.
- Within this above-state-average declaration file, major disaster leads with 22 of 29 records; the category describes past federal action, not the next likely hazard. Missouri overview
- The state benchmark and national rank point the same way: this count tops the Missouri mean and the totals for 85% of 3,266 U.S. counties. Most-disaster rankings
- The large NFIP claims file and FEMA declaration history measure different federal records; the guide explains where they overlap and where they do not. Disaster-data guide
An above-average declaration count records past federal responses; it does not predict the next event. Current warnings come from the National Weather Service and local emergency officials.
PlainHazard derives this profile from FEMA's Disaster Declarations Summaries and National Risk Index data. The declaration comparison covers 3,266 U.S. counties and county equivalents in this database, refreshed as of 2026-08-03. Read our methodology - how this data is sourced, computed, and verified.
All federal data sources used on this page
- FEMA OpenFEMA, Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 - all federally-declared disasters for this county. fema.gov/openfema/disaster-declarations
- FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) - per-county per-hazard risk ratings and expected annual loss. hazards.fema.gov/nri
- NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database - state-level storm/severe-weather event records, 2015-2025. ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents
Data sourced from official public datasets. See our methodology for details. Retrieved and formatted by PlainHazard Editorial
Verify with FEMA → · Verify with FEMA NRI → · Verify with NOAA →
Every figure on PlainHazard is rendered directly from FEMA federal disaster data, no number is typed in by an editor. See our editorial standards & corrections policy, the methodology behind these numbers, or national statistics report, the data & editorial changelog, or report a data error.