FEMA Records
8
Low volume
Arizona · FEMA + NOAA + National Risk Index
Santa Cruz County, AZ
8 FEMA disaster declarations (1978-2020), with a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Moderate. Most common hazard: Flood.
- 8
- FEMA declarations
- 5
- Major disasters
- 88
- NRI risk · Relatively Moderate
- Flood
- Top hazard
The verdict
Start with the local benchmark for Santa Cruz County: 8 FEMA declaration records are 52% below the Arizona county mean, even though the count is higher than 6% of counties in the national registry. On FEMA's distinct National Risk Index model, which combines expected loss with vulnerability and resilience, the county ranks in the riskiest 12%.
- Riskiest 12%
- of U.S. counties for FEMA National Risk Index score
- Relatively Moderate
- FEMA National Risk Index rating
- 8
- FEMA declarations vs 21 national county avg
- 161
- NFIP flood insurance claims filed
FEMA's National Risk Index and its declaration registry are separate measures. This county's registry includes Fire Management Assistance (FM) records, which are not presidential disaster declarations, alongside Major Disaster (DR) and Emergency (EM) records.
How does Santa Cruz County compare?
Santa Cruz County vs. all counties in this dataset
FEMA disaster declarations, all-time
8 6th percentile higher than 6% of 3,266 counties
Each bar is a band; taller bars hold more counties. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count, share, and where it sits relative to this entry.
Source FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 · 2026-08-03
Santa Cruz County's FEMA Risk Index score
FEMA National Risk Index composite score vs. the Arizona county average
Which hazard drives modeled loss here?
FEMA's modeled annual dollar loss for Santa Cruz County is led by Riverine Flooding (about $17.6M Expected Annual Loss, Historical Loss Ratio Relatively Low), while Heat Wave carries the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively High). EAL and risk score use different inputs; they need not agree.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025 release) - Expected Annual Loss vs composite risk rating by hazard.
What does Santa Cruz County's hazard record show?
Reading the federal records together
The NFIP claims register shows a middle-volume loss record here: 161 paid claims, totaling $1.3M. PlainHazard uses 50-499 claims for this descriptive band; FEMA does not publish it as a safety or coverage category. The $8.0K average describes payments on recorded claims only, leaving uninsured damage and properties without a claim outside the measure.
Start with the state benchmark: a Arizona county averages 16.7 federal declaration records, while Santa Cruz County has 8. The gap is 52% below that mean. Fewer entries indicate a quieter history of recorded federal actions, not immunity from a hazard and not a prediction about what happens next.
FEMA National Risk Index
This county sits among the highest-risk counties nationally on FEMA's National Risk Index, a composite score of 88.3/100 (Relatively Moderate). Expected Annual Loss is rated Relatively Low (roughly $42.5M in annualized losses). Social vulnerability reads Very High and community resilience Very Low, both critical modifiers of realized harm here. Of the 18 hazards FEMA models, Heat Wave stands out as the sharpest exposure here, rated Relatively High. FEMA's modeled frequency puts that hazard at 4 modeled event-days per year here, based on 47 historical events on record.
Declaration frequency
The state comparison is the clearest context for Santa Cruz County's moderate federal record. Its 8 declarations sit 52% below the Arizona county mean, with 5 Major Disaster entries among them. 3 records concern Flood, the file's most frequent incident type. Spread across 42 years, the registry rate is 0.2 per year. FEMA reports authorized programs separately from the DR, EM, and FM codes.
41 /100
Historical Activity Index
Moderate historical activity
Santa Cruz County, AZ · PlainHazard-derived composite from federal records
This 0–100 index is an explicit PlainHazard composite from FEMA declaration history only on the county surface (this DB has no county-level NOAA damage row) . It is not FEMA's National Risk Index, not a forecast, and not a safety, insurance, or preparedness rating. Open the calculator · Methodology
FEMA Declarations (1953–present) Low
6/30
8 OpenFEMA declarations, full ingest window (0.4x national county average)
County Disaster Density Low
6/25
8 declarations (0.5x state county average of 17)
Major Disaster Share High
16/25
5 of 8 declarations are major disasters (63%)
Hazard Diversity High
13/20
5 different disaster types declared in Santa Cruz County
Historical Declaration Activity
Activity Band
Moderate
vs. Arizona Avg
-52%
State avg: 16.7
vs. National Avg
-61%
National avg: 20.7
Avg Per Year
0.2
Over 42 years
FEMA NRI 8-hazard radar - Santa Cruz County
How to read this radar
Each axis: NRI risk rating (Very Low-Very High) on a 0-100 scale. Rounder = broad exposure; spiky = one or two hazards dominate.
Major Disaster share
63%
Major-heavy
NRI risk score
88
Relatively Moderate
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Per-county per-hazard ratings, December 2025 release
How often does each hazard strike Santa Cruz County?
FEMA's National Risk Index models a historical event count and an annualized frequency for each hazard type. Most hazards are expressed as modeled occurrences per year; FEMA expresses drought and heat-wave frequency as event-days per year. These modeled frequencies are not forecasts.
| Hazard | NRI Risk Rating | Recurrence |
|---|---|---|
| Heat Wave | Relatively High | 4 modeled event-days per year |
| Wildfire | Relatively High | roughly once every 77 years |
| Lightning | Relatively High | an average of 57 times per year |
| Riverine Flooding | Relatively Moderate | an average of 2.8 times per year |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | an average of 1.1 times per year |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 56 modeled event-days per year |
| Earthquake | Very Low | roughly once every 1,261 years |
| Avalanche | Very Low | roughly once every 100 years |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | roughly once every 1 years |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | an average of 3.7 times per year |
| Hurricane | Very Low | roughly once every 19 years |
| Hail | Very Low | roughly once every 3 years |
| Tornado | Very Low | roughly once every 26 years |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Modeled annualized frequency; drought and heat wave use event-days/year, December 2025 release
Disaster Types
Flood 3
Biological 2
Hurricane 1
Fire 1
Severe Storm 1
What Flood declarations mean here
Flood is the most frequent declaration type on Santa Cruz County's record, 38% of its declarations. Federal flood declarations cover two mechanisms that behave very differently: riverine flooding, which builds over days as a watershed drains and is usually forecast well in advance, and flash flooding, which can arrive in under an hour from rainfall that fell somewhere upstream.
Flood is also the one hazard class where a second federal dataset exists for the same events. The National Flood Insurance Program records what was actually paid on insured losses, so it measures a narrower thing than the declaration count: uninsured damage, and flooding outside mapped special flood hazard areas, never enters it. Reading the two together is more informative than either alone.
Declaration counts describe past federal action. They are a record of what was declared, not a forecast of future hazard probability.
Declaration Types
What DR / EM / FM mean
FEMA categorizes declarations as Major Disasters (DR), Emergencies (EM), or Fire Management Assistance (FM).
Major Disaster - 5 62.5%
of all 8 declarations
Emergency - 2 25.0%
of all 8 declarations
Fire Management - 1 12.5%
of all 8 declarations
FEMA Declarations Timeline
| Year | Declarations | |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2 | |
| 2005 | 1 | |
| 2002 | 1 | |
| 2001 | 1 | |
| 1993 | 1 | |
| 1984 | 1 | |
| 1978 | 1 | |
Disaster Declarations
How the 8 FEMA declarations break into federal action codes (DR / EM / FM). Same DISTINCT grain as the table below.
Download these 8 declarations as CSV . FEMA source data is public domain; our derived presentation is CC0.
| DR# | Title | Type | Incident | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4524 | COVID-19 PANDEMIC | DR | Biological | 2020-04-04 |
| 3442 | COVID-19 | EM | Biological | 2020-03-13 |
| 3241 | HURRICANE KATRINA EVACUATION | EM | Hurricane | 2005-09-12 |
| 2400 | AZ-RYAN-WILDFIRE-4/30/2002 | FM | Fire | 2002-04-30 |
| 1347 | SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2000-10-27 |
| 977 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES & FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1993-01-19 |
| 691 | SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1983-10-05 |
| 540 | SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1977-11-04 |
Storm Events in Arizona
Statewide NOAA context only. PlainHazard does not currently attribute these state totals to Santa Cruz County.
| Storm Type | Events | Fatalities | Injuries | Property Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flash Flood | 2,094 | 45 | 18 | $149.9M |
| Excessive Heat | 1,812 | 1,497 | 120 | $0 |
| Thunderstorm Wind | 1,680 | 3 | 19 | $75.9M |
| Heat | 727 | 1,206 | 39 | $0 |
| High Wind | 446 | 0 | 0 | $734.0K |
Source: NOAA Storm Events Database State-level aggregated data, 2015-2025
NFIP Flood Insurance Claims
Total Claims
161
Total Paid
$1.3M
Avg Per Claim
$8.0K
Source: FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA Claims Data
FEMA National Risk Index
Overall Risk
Relatively Moderate
Score: 88.3/100
Expected Annual Loss
Relatively Low
$42.5M/year
Social Vulnerability
Very High
Community Resilience
Very Low
Hazard Risk Breakdown
Heat Wave Relatively High
Wildfire Relatively High
Lightning Relatively High
Riverine Flooding Relatively Moderate
Landslide Relatively Low
Drought Relatively Low
Earthquake Very Low
Avalanche Very Low
Strong Wind Relatively Low
Winter Weather Very Low
Hurricane Very Low
Hail Very Low
Tornado Very Low
Cold Wave No Rating
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) Ratings reflect relative scores among all US counties. Data: hazards.fema.gov/nri
The model's sharpest exposure here: Heat Wave
Heat Wave is measured in event-days per year rather than discrete events, and it is the hazard whose harm is most consistently undercounted: its toll is health and mortality, concentrated among people without cooling, rather than visible damage to property.
Worth noting for Santa Cruz County: the model and the federal record do NOT point at the same hazard. Heat Wave carries the highest modeled rating (Relatively High), while the county's declaration history is led by Flood. That is not a contradiction, the two measure genuinely different things. Declarations record federal ACTION, which requires damage costly enough to exceed state and local capacity; the Risk Index models EXPECTED annual loss across all 18 hazards whether or not any declaration ever followed. A hazard can be the county's largest modeled exposure and never once have driven a declaration.
National Risk Index ratings are modeled estimates of expected annual loss, not predictions of what will happen in any given year.
Data-matched county comparisons
Santa Cruz County's closest FEMA peer: Brazos County, TX
Comparisons use published FEMA declaration fields plus the National Risk Index composite for Santa Cruz County. Record similarity, not a safety rating.
Similar modeled NRI score
Santa Cruz County: NRI composite 88.3 (Relatively Moderate).
Similar Major-disaster share
Santa Cruz County: 5 of 8 of its declarations are Major.
Closest declaration profiles
Santa Cruz County shows 8 FEMA declarations, led by Flood.
How these peers are chosen
Cohort: Published U.S. county equivalents outside the source state or territory. Each metric keeps six ETL candidates; three unique destinations are shown after de-duplicating across axes. Declaration-volume ranking combines count and Major-disaster share and prefers a different leading incident type; Major-share ranks the Major fraction adjusted for volume; NRI ranks the modeled composite score only.
Retained FEMA snapshot feed for Santa Cruz County - capture-dated entries only.
Further reading for this county
Understanding disaster data
Santa Cruz County's NFIP claims file (161 claims) and FEMA declaration history measure different federal records - this guide separates them from modeled NRI risk.
More PlainHazard guides
- Most disaster-prone counties - U.S. counties ranked by FEMA declaration totals.
- Understanding disaster data - declarations vs storm events vs NRI scores.
- Preparing for natural disasters - household checklist (not county-specific advice).
Related
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most common disaster type in Santa Cruz County?
The most common disaster type in Santa Cruz County is Flood, with 3 declarations. Other disaster types include Biological (2), Hurricane (1), Fire (1).
How does Santa Cruz County's FEMA declaration record compare with the Arizona average?
The typical Arizona county has 16.7 FEMA declaration records; Santa Cruz County has 8, or 52% fewer. Against the national county mean of 20.7, this county's total is 61% lower. The comparison is historical and says nothing about the probability of a future event.
How many major FEMA disaster declarations has Santa Cruz County received?
Santa Cruz County has received 5 major disaster declarations, representing 63% of all 8 disaster declarations.
How many flood insurance claims has Santa Cruz County filed?
Santa Cruz County has 161 National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims totaling $1.3M in payments, with an average of $8.0K per claim.
Does FEMA's top risk-rated hazard match the highest Expected Annual Loss in Santa Cruz County?
No. In Santa Cruz County, Heat Wave has the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively High), while Riverine Flooding leads Expected Annual Loss at about $17.6M. FEMA's risk score and dollar-loss model use different inputs, so the leaders often differ.
What was the worst year for disasters in Santa Cruz County?
The most active year for disaster declarations in Santa Cruz County was 2020, with 2 declarations. The county has FEMA disaster data spanning 1978 to 2020.
What is the FEMA National Risk Index score for Santa Cruz County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, Santa Cruz County, Arizona has an overall risk score of 88.3 out of 100 (Relatively Moderate). Social vulnerability here rates Very High, while community resilience comes in at Very Low. The Expected Annual Loss (EAL) score is Relatively Low, representing $42.5M in annualized losses.
Which natural hazard poses the greatest risk to Santa Cruz County?
The top hazard flagged by FEMA's NRI for Santa Cruz County is Heat Wave (risk rating: Relatively High). Other significant hazards include Wildfire (Relatively High) and Lightning (Relatively High). FEMA's modeled event frequency puts heat wave here at 4 modeled event-days per year, drawn from 47 historical events on record. These scores are based on FEMA's analysis of historical event frequency, exposed assets, and community vulnerability.
Data Sources & Methodology
Disaster declaration data comes from the FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 API, which includes all federally declared disasters, emergencies, and fire management assistance grants.
Storm event data is sourced from the NOAA Storm Events Database (2015-2025), which tracks significant weather events including thunderstorms, tornadoes, floods, and winter storms.
Flood insurance data comes from the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA claims dataset.
This data is provided for informational purposes only. FEMA disaster declarations represent federal response actions and may not capture all local emergencies or weather events.
What this means for Santa Cruz County
Against a Arizona county mean of 17 declarations, Santa Cruz County, AZ records 8, or 52% fewer. PlainHazard classifies that historical total as moderate activity.
- Major Disaster is the largest group (5 of 8) in a declaration history that remains below its state benchmark; frequency here is not a forecast. Arizona overview
- Nationally the county exceeds 6% of recorded county totals, but its own Arizona benchmark is higher. The ranking keeps those two contexts separate. Most-disaster rankings
- Use the data guide to separate this mid-volume insurance-claims file from declaration counts and modeled NRI risk. Disaster-data guide
A below-average federal record is not a safety guarantee. Use National Weather Service alerts and local emergency-management notices for present conditions, not this historical comparison.
PlainHazard derives this profile from FEMA's Disaster Declarations Summaries and National Risk Index data. The declaration comparison covers 3,266 U.S. counties and county equivalents in this database, refreshed as of 2026-08-03. Read our methodology - how this data is sourced, computed, and verified.
All federal data sources used on this page
- FEMA OpenFEMA, Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 - all federally-declared disasters for this county. fema.gov/openfema/disaster-declarations
- FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) - per-county per-hazard risk ratings and expected annual loss. hazards.fema.gov/nri
- NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database - state-level storm/severe-weather event records, 2015-2025. ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents
Data sourced from official public datasets. See our methodology for details. Retrieved and formatted by PlainHazard Editorial
Verify with FEMA → · Verify with FEMA NRI → · Verify with NOAA →
Every figure on PlainHazard is rendered directly from FEMA federal disaster data, no number is typed in by an editor. See our editorial standards & corrections policy, the methodology behind these numbers, or national statistics report, the data & editorial changelog, or report a data error.