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Florida · FEMA + NOAA + National Risk Index

Sarasota County, FL

48 FEMA disaster declarations (1969-2025), with a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively High. Most common hazard: Hurricane.

48
FEMA declarations
29
Major disasters
98
NRI risk · Relatively High
Hurricane
Top hazard

The verdict

Two federal records point in the busier direction for Sarasota County. Its 48 FEMA declarations are 19% above the Florida county mean and exceed the count for 99% of the 3,266 counties in this registry. Separately, FEMA's National Risk Index places it in the riskiest 2%, based on modeled expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience.

Riskiest 2%
of U.S. counties for FEMA National Risk Index score
Relatively High
FEMA National Risk Index rating
48
FEMA declarations vs 21 national county avg
14,411
NFIP flood insurance claims filed

FEMA's National Risk Index and its declaration registry are separate measures. This county's registry includes Fire Management Assistance (FM) records, which are not presidential disaster declarations, alongside Major Disaster (DR) and Emergency (EM) records.

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How does Sarasota County compare?

Sarasota County vs. all counties in this dataset

FEMA disaster declarations, all-time

48 Top 1% higher than 99% of 3,266 counties

This county 0 90 all U.S. counties FEMA tracks, bucketed by value

Each bar is a band; taller bars hold more counties. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count, share, and where it sits relative to this entry.

Source FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 · 2026-08-03

Sarasota County's FEMA Risk Index score

FEMA National Risk Index composite score vs. the Florida county average

0/100100/100Florida avg76/10098.2/100
FEMA National Risk Index composite score vs. the Florida county average

Which hazard drives modeled loss here?

FEMA's modeled annual dollar loss for Sarasota County is led by Hurricane (about $180.4M Expected Annual Loss, Historical Loss Ratio Relatively High), while Lightning carries the highest National Risk Index rating (Very High). EAL and risk score use different inputs; they need not agree.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025 release) - Expected Annual Loss vs composite risk rating by hazard.

What does Sarasota County's hazard record show?

Reading the federal records together

FEMA's NFIP table contains a substantial paid-claim history for this county: 14,411 claims and $853.5M in payments. PlainHazard labels 500 or more claims a heavy registry record; that is a reporting bucket, not an official FEMA risk grade. The average paid claim was $59.2K. NFIP totals exclude uninsured flood losses and do not measure how many properties currently carry a policy.

The declaration register points in the busier direction. Sarasota County's 48 federal records stand 19% above the Florida county mean of 40.4. That comparison describes how often federal action was recorded, including any Major Disaster, Emergency, and Fire Management entries shown on this page; it does not convert the count into future probability.

FEMA National Risk Index

This county sits among the highest-risk counties nationally on FEMA's National Risk Index, a composite score of 98.2/100 (Relatively High). Expected Annual Loss is rated Relatively High (roughly $273.0M in annualized losses). Social vulnerability reads Relatively High and community resilience Very Low, both critical modifiers of realized harm here. Of the 18 hazards FEMA models, Lightning stands out as the sharpest exposure here, rated Very High. FEMA's modeled frequency puts that hazard at an average of 96 times per year here, based on 869,366 historical events on record.

Declaration frequency

The FEMA register is busy by both local and national comparisons. It contains 48 entries for Sarasota County, including 29 Major Disaster records, 19% above the Florida county mean. Across the 56-year span, that works out to 0.9 declarations a year. Hurricane leads the file with 21 entries. Declaration type records the federal action taken, not every assistance program approved.

80 /100

Historical Activity Index

Very High historical activity

Sarasota County, FL · PlainHazard-derived composite from federal records

This 0–100 index is an explicit PlainHazard composite from FEMA declaration history only on the county surface (this DB has no county-level NOAA damage row) . It is not FEMA's National Risk Index, not a forecast, and not a safety, insurance, or preparedness rating. Open the calculator · Methodology

FEMA Declarations (1953–present) Very High
30/30

48 OpenFEMA declarations, full ingest window (2.3x national county average)

County Disaster Density High
15/25

48 declarations (1.2x state county average of 40)

Major Disaster Share High
15/25

29 of 48 declarations are major disasters (60%)

Hazard Diversity Very High
20/20

9 different disaster types declared in Sarasota County

Historical Declaration Activity

Activity Band

High

vs. Florida Avg

+19%

State avg: 40.4

vs. National Avg

+132%

National avg: 20.7

Avg Per Year

0.9

Over 56 years

FEMA NRI 8-hazard radar - Sarasota County

Sarasota County NRI risk profile 8-axis FEMA National Risk Index radar showing per-hazard scores for Earthquake 8, Flood 70, Hurricane 92, Tornado 70, Wildfire 48, Drought 25, Heat Wave 48, Winter Storm 25. The simple mean of these eight displayed scores is 48 of 100. Earthquake Flood Hurricane Tornado Wildfire Drought Heat Wave Winter Storm 48 8-hazard mean
Sarasota County NRI risk profile FIPS 12115 · displayed-hazard mean 48/100
How to read this radar

Each axis: NRI risk rating (Very Low-Very High) on a 0-100 scale. Rounder = broad exposure; spiky = one or two hazards dominate.

FEMA Records

48

Very high volume

Major Disaster share

60%

Major-heavy

NRI risk score

98

Relatively High

Source: FEMA National Risk Index Per-county per-hazard ratings, December 2025 release

How often does each hazard strike Sarasota County?

FEMA's National Risk Index models a historical event count and an annualized frequency for each hazard type. Most hazards are expressed as modeled occurrences per year; FEMA expresses drought and heat-wave frequency as event-days per year. These modeled frequencies are not forecasts.

Hazard NRI Risk Rating Recurrence
Lightning Very High an average of 96 times per year
Hurricane Very High roughly once every 4 years
Riverine Flooding Relatively High an average of 1.2 times per year
Coastal Flooding Relatively High an average of 3.7 times per year
Wildfire Relatively Moderate roughly once every 146 years
Tornado Relatively High roughly once every 1 years
Heat Wave Relatively Moderate 3 modeled event-days per year
Strong Wind Relatively High roughly once every 2 years
Landslide Very Low roughly once every 16 years
Drought Relatively Low 19 modeled event-days per year
Earthquake Very Low roughly once every 3,968 years
Cold Wave Relatively Low an average of 3.2 times per year
Hail Very Low an average of 1.3 times per year

Source: FEMA National Risk Index Modeled annualized frequency; drought and heat wave use event-days/year, December 2025 release

Disaster Types

Hurricane 21
Severe Storm 7
Tropical Storm 5
Fire 5
Freezing 3
Biological 2
Coastal Storm 2
Flood 2
Tornado 1

What Hurricane declarations mean here

Hurricane is the most frequent declaration type on Sarasota County's federal record, 44% of its declarations. Atlantic tropical systems run on a defined season, 1 June to 30 November, with most activity concentrated between August and October; Pacific and territorial basins run on their own calendars. A single named storm routinely produces one declaration number covering a long corridor of counties at once, well inland as well as on the coast, which is why an affected county's count can jump by several in one year without several separate events having occurred.

One practical distinction matters when reading these records: a tropical declaration usually bundles wind, storm surge and inland rainfall flooding under a single incident, but the insurance behind them is split. Wind damage falls to property insurers, while flood and surge damage is covered only under a separate National Flood Insurance Program policy. That is why a county can show heavy declaration activity and a comparatively small NFIP claims record, or the reverse.

Declaration counts describe past federal action. They are a record of what was declared, not a forecast of future hazard probability.

Declaration Types

What DR / EM / FM mean

FEMA categorizes declarations as Major Disasters (DR), Emergencies (EM), or Fire Management Assistance (FM).

Major Disaster - 29 60.4%

of all 48 declarations

Emergency - 16 33.3%

of all 48 declarations

Fire Management - 3 6.3%

of all 48 declarations

FEMA Declarations Timeline

Year Declarations
2025 2
2024 4
2023 4
2022 2
2021 2
2020 2
2019 1
2017 2
2016 1
2012 1
2008 2
2006 1
2005 1
2004 4
2003 1
Show 12 earlier declaration years
2001 3
2000 2
1999 2
1998 3
1997 1
1993 1
1992 1
1990 1
1982 1
1977 1
1972 1
1969 1

Disaster Declarations

How the 48 FEMA declarations break into federal action codes (DR / EM / FM). Same DISTINCT grain as the table below.

Download these 48 declarations as CSV . FEMA source data is public domain; our derived presentation is CC0.

DR# Title Type Incident Date
4834 HURRICANE MILTON DR Hurricane 2024-10-11
3622 HURRICANE MILTON EM Hurricane 2024-10-07
4828 HURRICANE HELENE DR Hurricane 2024-09-28
3615 TROPICAL STORM HELENE EM Tropical Storm 2024-09-24
4806 HURRICANE DEBBY DR Tropical Storm 2024-08-10
3605 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY EM Tropical Storm 2024-08-03
4734 HURRICANE IDALIA DR Hurricane 2023-08-31
3596 TROPICAL STORM IDALIA EM Tropical Storm 2023-08-28
4680 HURRICANE NICOLE DR Hurricane 2022-12-13
3587 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE EM Tropical Storm 2022-11-08
4673 HURRICANE IAN DR Hurricane 2022-09-29
3584 TROPICAL STORM IAN EM Hurricane 2022-09-24
3561 TROPICAL STORM ELSA EM Severe Storm 2021-07-04
3551 HURRICANE ETA EM Hurricane 2020-11-11
4486 COVID-19 PANDEMIC DR Biological 2020-03-25
3432 COVID-19 EM Biological 2020-03-13
3419 HURRICANE DORIAN EM Hurricane 2019-08-30
4337 HURRICANE IRMA DR Hurricane 2017-09-10
3385 HURRICANE IRMA EM Hurricane 2017-09-05
4280 HURRICANE HERMINE DR Hurricane 2016-09-28
Show 28 earlier declaration records
DR# Title Type Incident Date
4068 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DR Severe Storm 2012-07-03
1785 TROPICAL STORM FAY DR Severe Storm 2008-08-24
3288 TROPICAL STORM FAY EM Severe Storm 2008-08-21
1609 HURRICANE WILMA DR Hurricane 2005-10-24
3220 HURRICANE KATRINA EVACUATION EM Hurricane 2005-09-05
1561 HURRICANE JEANNE DR Hurricane 2004-09-26
1551 HURRICANE IVAN DR Hurricane 2004-09-16
1545 HURRICANE FRANCES DR Hurricane 2004-09-04
1539 TROPICAL STORM BONNIE AND HURRICANE CHARLEY DR Hurricane 2004-08-13
1481 SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING DR Severe Storm 2003-07-29
1393 SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES AND FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DR Coastal Storm 2001-09-28
2358 FL - MYAKKA COMPLEX FIRE FM Fire 2001-04-18
1359 SEVERE FREEZE DR Freezing 2001-02-05
2298 FLOWERS-MYAKKA FIRE COMPLEX FM Fire 2000-05-16
3150 TROPICAL STORM IRENE - FLORIDA EM Hurricane 1999-10-15
3139 FL-FIRES 04/15/99 EM Fire 1999-04-27
2260 FL-FIRES 04/13/99 FM Fire 1999-04-23
3131 HURRICANE GRORGES EM Hurricane 1998-09-25
1223 EXTREME FIRE HAZARD DR Fire 1998-06-18
1195 SEVERE STORMS, HIGH WINDS, TORNADOES, AND FLOODING DR Severe Storm 1998-01-06
1141 TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DR Severe Storm 1996-10-15
982 TORNADOES, FLOODING, HIGH WINDS & TIDES, FREEZING DR Tornado 1993-03-13
952 SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING DR Flood 1992-08-14
851 SEVERE FREEZE DR Freezing 1990-01-15
664 SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING DR Flood 1982-07-07
526 SEVERE WINTER WEATHER DR Freezing 1977-01-31
337 TROPICAL STORM AGNES DR Coastal Storm 1972-06-23
252 HURRICANE GLADYS DR Hurricane 1968-11-07

Storm Events in Florida

Statewide NOAA context only. PlainHazard does not currently attribute these state totals to Sarasota County.

Storm Type Events Fatalities Injuries Property Damage
Thunderstorm Wind 5,243 17 45 $24.8M
Hail 1,012 0 0 $564.6K
Heavy Rain 865 2 3 $200.0K
Flood 826 9 0 $2.0B
Tropical Storm 767 92 6 $4.9B

Source: NOAA Storm Events Database State-level aggregated data, 2015-2025

NFIP Flood Insurance Claims

Total Claims

14,411

Total Paid

$853.5M

Avg Per Claim

$59.2K

Source: FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA Claims Data

FEMA National Risk Index

Overall Risk

Relatively High

Score: 98.2/100

Expected Annual Loss

Relatively High

$273.0M/year

Social Vulnerability

Relatively High

Community Resilience

Very Low

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Lightning Very High
Hurricane Very High
Riverine Flooding Relatively High
Coastal Flooding Relatively High
Wildfire Relatively Moderate
Tornado Relatively High
Heat Wave Relatively Moderate
Strong Wind Relatively High
Landslide Very Low
Drought Relatively Low
Earthquake Very Low
Cold Wave Relatively Low
Hail Very Low
Winter Weather No Rating

Source: FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) Ratings reflect relative scores among all US counties. Data: hazards.fema.gov/nri

The model's sharpest exposure here: Lightning

Lightning is modeled as a high-frequency, low-per-event hazard: strike counts are large, but each strike affects a very small area. Its aggregate cost accumulates through structure fires, electrical and electronic damage, and it is one of the few hazards whose risk is essentially continuous through the season rather than episodic.

Worth noting for Sarasota County: the model and the federal record do NOT point at the same hazard. Lightning carries the highest modeled rating (Very High), while the county's declaration history is led by Hurricane. That is not a contradiction, the two measure genuinely different things. Declarations record federal ACTION, which requires damage costly enough to exceed state and local capacity; the Risk Index models EXPECTED annual loss across all 18 hazards whether or not any declaration ever followed. A hazard can be the county's largest modeled exposure and never once have driven a declaration.

National Risk Index ratings are modeled estimates of expected annual loss, not predictions of what will happen in any given year.

Data-matched county comparisons

Sarasota County's closest FEMA peer: Creek County, OK

Comparisons use published FEMA declaration fields plus the National Risk Index composite for Sarasota County. Record similarity, not a safety rating.

How these peers are chosen

Cohort: Published U.S. county equivalents outside the source state or territory. Each metric keeps six ETL candidates; three unique destinations are shown after de-duplicating across axes. Declaration-volume ranking combines count and Major-disaster share and prefers a different leading incident type; Major-share ranks the Major fraction adjusted for volume; NRI ranks the modeled composite score only.

Retained FEMA snapshot feed for Sarasota County - capture-dated entries only.

Further reading for this county

Understanding disaster data

Sarasota County's NFIP claims file (14,411 claims) and FEMA declaration history measure different federal records - this guide separates them from modeled NRI risk.

More PlainHazard guides

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the most common disaster type in Sarasota County?
The most common disaster type in Sarasota County is Hurricane, with 21 declarations. Other disaster types include Severe Storm (7), Tropical Storm (5), Fire (5).
How does Sarasota County's FEMA declaration record compare with the Florida average?
FEMA lists 48 declaration records for Sarasota County. That is 19% above the Florida county mean of 40.4. Its count is also 132% above the national county mean of 20.7. A larger declaration history records more federal actions; it is not a forecast of the county's next hazard.
How many major FEMA disaster declarations has Sarasota County received?
Sarasota County has received 29 major disaster declarations, representing 60% of all 48 disaster declarations.
How many flood insurance claims has Sarasota County filed?
Sarasota County has 14,411 National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims totaling $853.5M in payments, with an average of $59.2K per claim.
Does FEMA's top risk-rated hazard match the highest Expected Annual Loss in Sarasota County?
No. In Sarasota County, Lightning has the highest National Risk Index rating (Very High), while Hurricane leads Expected Annual Loss at about $180.4M. FEMA's risk score and dollar-loss model use different inputs, so the leaders often differ.
What was the worst year for disasters in Sarasota County?
The most active year for disaster declarations in Sarasota County was 2004, with 4 declarations. The county has FEMA disaster data spanning 1969 to 2025.
What is the FEMA National Risk Index score for Sarasota County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, Sarasota County, Florida has an overall risk score of 98.2 out of 100 (Relatively High). Social vulnerability here rates Relatively High, while community resilience comes in at Very Low. The Expected Annual Loss (EAL) score is Relatively High, representing $273.0M in annualized losses.
Which natural hazard poses the greatest risk to Sarasota County?
FEMA's NRI data points to Sarasota County as of the latest release is Lightning (risk rating: Very High). Other significant hazards include Hurricane (Very High) and Riverine Flooding (Relatively High). FEMA's modeled event frequency puts lightning here at an average of 96 times per year, drawn from 869,366 historical events on record. These scores are based on FEMA's analysis of historical event frequency, exposed assets, and community vulnerability.
Data Sources & Methodology

Disaster declaration data comes from the FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 API, which includes all federally declared disasters, emergencies, and fire management assistance grants.

Storm event data is sourced from the NOAA Storm Events Database (2015-2025), which tracks significant weather events including thunderstorms, tornadoes, floods, and winter storms.

Flood insurance data comes from the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA claims dataset.

This data is provided for informational purposes only. FEMA disaster declarations represent federal response actions and may not capture all local emergencies or weather events.

What this means for Sarasota County

Sarasota County, FL has 48 federal declaration records, 19% more than the Florida county mean of 40; its history sits in PlainHazard's high activity band.

  • Within this above-state-average declaration file, major disaster leads with 29 of 48 records; the category describes past federal action, not the next likely hazard. Florida overview
  • The state benchmark and national rank point the same way: this count tops the Florida mean and the totals for 99% of 3,266 U.S. counties. Most-disaster rankings
  • The large NFIP claims file and FEMA declaration history measure different federal records; the guide explains where they overlap and where they do not. Disaster-data guide

An above-average declaration count records past federal responses; it does not predict the next event. Current warnings come from the National Weather Service and local emergency officials.

All federal data sources used on this page
Data sourced from official public datasets. See our methodology for details. Retrieved and formatted by PlainHazard Editorial

Verify with FEMA → · Verify with FEMA NRI → · Verify with NOAA →

Every figure on PlainHazard is rendered directly from FEMA federal disaster data, no number is typed in by an editor. See our editorial standards & corrections policy, the methodology behind these numbers, or national statistics report, the data & editorial changelog, or report a data error.