FEMA Records
24
Above median
Missouri · FEMA + NOAA + National Risk Index
Sullivan County, MO
24 FEMA disaster declarations (1973-2020), with a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Very Low. Most common hazard: Severe Storm.
- 24
- FEMA declarations
- 18
- Major disasters
- 10
- NRI risk · Very Low
- Severe Storm
- Top hazard
The verdict
Sullivan County has a nationally busy FEMA history: 24 declarations, more than 66% of counties in this registry. But the state comparison tempers that reading: the total is 3% below the Missouri county mean. FEMA's separate National Risk Index places the county safer than 10%; that score models loss and vulnerability rather than counting declarations.
- Safer than 10%
- of U.S. counties for FEMA National Risk Index score
- Very Low
- FEMA National Risk Index rating
- 24
- FEMA declarations vs 21 national county avg
- 2
- NFIP flood insurance claims filed
FEMA's National Risk Index and its declaration registry are separate measures. This county's registry includes Major Disaster (DR) and Emergency (EM) records; an EM authorizes a narrower set of federal assistance than a DR.
How does Sullivan County compare?
Sullivan County vs. all counties in this dataset
FEMA disaster declarations, all-time
24 Top 34% higher than 66% of 3,266 counties
Each bar is a band; taller bars hold more counties. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count, share, and where it sits relative to this entry.
Source FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 · 2026-08-03
Sullivan County's FEMA Risk Index score
FEMA National Risk Index composite score vs. the Missouri county average
Which hazard drives modeled loss here?
FEMA's modeled annual dollar loss for Sullivan County is led by Riverine Flooding (about $1.4M Expected Annual Loss, Historical Loss Ratio Very High), while Landslide carries the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively Low). EAL and risk score use different inputs; they need not agree.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025 release) - Expected Annual Loss vs composite risk rating by hazard.
What does Sullivan County's hazard record show?
Declaration frequency
Nationally, Sullivan County's 24 FEMA records form a high-volume history; within Missouri, however, the count is 3% below the county mean. 18 entries carry the Major Disaster classification. The largest incident group is Severe Storm, appearing 15 times. The full 47-year record averages 0.5 declarations annually. A DR label alone does not say whether Individual Assistance, Public Assistance, or both followed.
FEMA National Risk Index
FEMA's National Risk Index places this county in the low end of the national distribution, composite score 10.1/100 (Very Low). Expected Annual Loss is rated Very Low (roughly $4.4M in annualized losses). Two modifiers shape how that exposure becomes real-world harm here: social vulnerability (Relatively Moderate) and community resilience (Relatively Moderate). Even the county's top-rated hazard, Landslide, only reaches Relatively Low on FEMA's scale, none of the 18 modeled hazards stand out here. FEMA's modeled frequency puts that hazard at roughly once every 2 years here.
Reading the federal records together
This county has a small entry in FEMA's NFIP paid-claims table: 2 claims and $329 paid in total. PlainHazard calls 1-49 claims a light registry record, a label for this dataset rather than a finding that flood exposure is low. A short claims history can also reflect insurance take-up, the period covered, or losses that were never insured.
Start with the state benchmark: a Missouri county averages 24.6 federal declaration records, while Sullivan County has 24. The gap is 3% below that mean. Fewer entries indicate a quieter history of recorded federal actions, not immunity from a hazard and not a prediction about what happens next.
63 /100
Historical Activity Index
High historical activity
Sullivan County, MO · PlainHazard-derived composite from federal records
This 0–100 index is an explicit PlainHazard composite from FEMA declaration history only on the county surface (this DB has no county-level NOAA damage row) . It is not FEMA's National Risk Index, not a forecast, and not a safety, insurance, or preparedness rating. Open the calculator · Methodology
FEMA Declarations (1953–present) High
17/30
24 OpenFEMA declarations, full ingest window (1.2x national county average)
County Disaster Density Moderate
12/25
24 declarations (1.0x state county average of 25)
Major Disaster Share Very High
19/25
18 of 24 declarations are major disasters (75%)
Hazard Diversity Very High
15/20
6 different disaster types declared in Sullivan County
Historical Declaration Activity
Activity Band
High
vs. Missouri Avg
-3%
State avg: 24.6
vs. National Avg
+16%
National avg: 20.7
Avg Per Year
0.5
Over 47 years
FEMA NRI 8-hazard radar - Sullivan County
How to read this radar
Each axis: NRI risk rating (Very Low-Very High) on a 0-100 scale. Rounder = broad exposure; spiky = one or two hazards dominate.
Major Disaster share
75%
Mostly major
NRI risk score
10
Very Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Per-county per-hazard ratings, December 2025 release
How often does each hazard strike Sullivan County?
FEMA's National Risk Index models a historical event count and an annualized frequency for each hazard type. Most hazards are expressed as modeled occurrences per year; FEMA expresses drought and heat-wave frequency as event-days per year. These modeled frequencies are not forecasts.
| Hazard | NRI Risk Rating | Recurrence |
|---|---|---|
| Landslide | Relatively Low | roughly once every 2 years |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 14 modeled event-days per year |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | roughly once every 3 years |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 8.1 modeled event-days per year |
| Wildfire | Very Low | roughly once every 1,008 years |
| Hail | Relatively Low | an average of 3.7 times per year |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | an average of 4.6 times per year |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | an average of 47 times per year |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | an average of 3.2 times per year |
| Earthquake | Very Low | roughly once every 1,042 years |
| Hurricane | Very Low | roughly once every 100 years |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | an average of 12 times per year |
| Riverine Flooding | Very Low | roughly once every 3 years |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | roughly once every 4 years |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Modeled annualized frequency; drought and heat wave use event-days/year, December 2025 release
Disaster Types
Severe Storm 15
Severe Ice Storm 4
Biological 2
Hurricane 1
Flood 1
Drought 1
What Severe Storm declarations mean here
Severe Storm is the most frequent declaration type on Sullivan County's record, 63% of its declarations. In FEMA's vocabulary this covers convective weather: thunderstorm straight-line winds, large hail, and the multi-day outbreaks that often carry embedded tornadoes. Activity is heaviest in spring and summer, though the season varies by region.
These events behave differently from a hurricane on paper. Damage tends to be distributed along a storm track rather than concentrated on a coastline, and a declaration typically follows an outbreak that crossed several counties over a few days, not a single point of impact. Because the qualifying threshold is the cost of uninsured public and individual losses rather than storm intensity, two similar storms can produce a declaration in one year and none in another.
Declaration counts describe past federal action. They are a record of what was declared, not a forecast of future hazard probability.
Declaration Types
What DR / EM / FM mean
FEMA categorizes declarations as Major Disasters (DR), Emergencies (EM), or Fire Management Assistance (FM).
Major Disaster - 18 75.0%
of all 24 declarations
Emergency - 6 25.0%
of all 24 declarations
FEMA Declarations Timeline
| Year | Declarations | |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2 | |
| 2019 | 1 | |
| 2015 | 2 | |
| 2013 | 1 | |
| 2011 | 2 | |
| 2010 | 1 | |
| 2009 | 3 | |
| 2008 | 3 | |
| 2007 | 1 | |
| 2005 | 1 | |
| 2004 | 1 | |
| 2002 | 2 | |
| 1995 | 1 | |
| 1993 | 1 | |
| 1976 | 1 | |
Show 1 earlier declaration years
| 1973 | 1 | |
Disaster Declarations
How the 24 FEMA declarations break into federal action codes (DR / EM / FM). Same DISTINCT grain as the table below.
Download these 24 declarations as CSV . FEMA source data is public domain; our derived presentation is CC0.
| DR# | Title | Type | Incident | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4490 | COVID-19 PANDEMIC | DR | Biological | 2020-03-26 |
| 3482 | COVID-19 | EM | Biological | 2020-03-13 |
| 4451 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2019-07-09 |
| 4238 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2015-08-07 |
| 4200 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2014-10-31 |
| 4130 | SEVERE STORMS, STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, TORNADOES, AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2013-07-18 |
| 1961 | SEVERE WINTER STORM AND SNOWSTORM | DR | Severe Storm | 2011-03-23 |
| 3317 | SEVERE WINTER STORM | EM | Severe Storm | 2011-02-03 |
| 1934 | SEVERE STORMS, FLOODING, AND TORNADOES | DR | Severe Storm | 2010-08-17 |
| 1847 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2009-06-19 |
| 3303 | SEVERE WINTER STORM | EM | Severe Ice Storm | 2009-01-30 |
| 1809 | SEVERE STORMS, FLOODING, AND A TORNADO | DR | Severe Storm | 2008-11-13 |
| 1773 | SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2008-06-25 |
| 1736 | SEVERE WINTER STORMS | DR | Severe Ice Storm | 2007-12-27 |
| 3281 | SEVERE WINTER STORMS | EM | Severe Ice Storm | 2007-12-12 |
| 1708 | SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2007-06-11 |
| 3232 | HURRICANE KATRINA EVACUATION | EM | Hurricane | 2005-09-10 |
| 1524 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2004-06-11 |
| 1412 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2002-05-06 |
| 1403 | SEVERE WINTER ICE STORM | DR | Severe Ice Storm | 2002-02-06 |
Show 4 earlier declaration records
| DR# | Title | Type | Incident | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1054 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, HAIL, FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 1995-06-02 |
| 995 | SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1993-07-09 |
| 3017 | DROUGHT | EM | Drought | 1976-09-24 |
| 372 | HEAVY RAINS, TORNADOES & FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 1973-04-19 |
Storm Events in Missouri
Statewide NOAA context only. PlainHazard does not currently attribute these state totals to Sullivan County.
| Storm Type | Events | Fatalities | Injuries | Property Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunderstorm Wind | 6,391 | 30 | 52 | $63.4M |
| Hail | 4,411 | 0 | 1 | $86.1M |
| Flash Flood | 2,399 | 47 | 14 | $406.6M |
| Flood | 1,810 | 25 | 7 | $304.6M |
| Drought | 1,033 | 0 | 350 | $53.6M |
Source: NOAA Storm Events Database State-level aggregated data, 2015-2025
NFIP Flood Insurance Claims
Total Claims
2
Total Paid
$329
Avg Per Claim
$164
Source: FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA Claims Data
FEMA National Risk Index
Overall Risk
Very Low
Score: 10.1/100
Expected Annual Loss
Very Low
$4.4M/year
Social Vulnerability
Relatively Moderate
Community Resilience
Relatively Moderate
Hazard Risk Breakdown
Landslide Relatively Low
Drought Relatively Moderate
Tornado Relatively Low
Heat Wave Relatively Low
Wildfire Very Low
Hail Relatively Low
Cold Wave Relatively Low
Lightning Relatively Low
Strong Wind Relatively Low
Earthquake Very Low
Hurricane Very Low
Winter Weather Very Low
Riverine Flooding Very Low
Ice Storm Very Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) Ratings reflect relative scores among all US counties. Data: hazards.fema.gov/nri
The model's sharpest exposure here: Landslide
Landslide risk is a function of slope, soil and water, so it is usually a SECOND-ORDER hazard: it is triggered by the rainfall, snowmelt, wildfire burn scars or seismic shaking that came first. That is why a county can carry high landslide exposure whose realized damage is recorded under a flood or storm declaration instead.
Worth noting for Sullivan County: the model and the federal record do NOT point at the same hazard. Landslide carries the highest modeled rating (Relatively Low), while the county's declaration history is led by Severe Storm. That is not a contradiction, the two measure genuinely different things. Declarations record federal ACTION, which requires damage costly enough to exceed state and local capacity; the Risk Index models EXPECTED annual loss across all 18 hazards whether or not any declaration ever followed. A hazard can be the county's largest modeled exposure and never once have driven a declaration.
National Risk Index ratings are modeled estimates of expected annual loss, not predictions of what will happen in any given year.
Data-matched county comparisons
Sullivan County's closest FEMA peer: Mercer County, ND
Comparisons use published FEMA declaration fields plus the National Risk Index composite for Sullivan County. Record similarity, not a safety rating.
Closest declaration profiles
Sullivan County shows 24 FEMA declarations, led by Severe Storm.
Similar Major-disaster share
Sullivan County: 18 of 24 of its declarations are Major.
Similar modeled NRI score
Sullivan County: NRI composite 10.1 (Very Low).
How these peers are chosen
Cohort: Published U.S. county equivalents outside the source state or territory. Each metric keeps six ETL candidates; three unique destinations are shown after de-duplicating across axes. Declaration-volume ranking combines count and Major-disaster share and prefers a different leading incident type; Major-share ranks the Major fraction adjusted for volume; NRI ranks the modeled composite score only.
Retained FEMA snapshot feed for Sullivan County - capture-dated entries only.
Further reading for this county
Most disaster-prone counties
With 24 FEMA declarations, Sullivan County sits in the high-volume declaration band - see how that count ranks against other U.S. counties.
More PlainHazard guides
- Most disaster-prone counties - U.S. counties ranked by FEMA declaration totals.
- Understanding disaster data - declarations vs storm events vs NRI scores.
- Preparing for natural disasters - household checklist (not county-specific advice).
Related
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most common disaster type in Sullivan County?
The most common disaster type in Sullivan County is Severe Storm, with 15 declarations. Other disaster types include Severe Ice Storm (4), Biological (2), Hurricane (1).
How does Sullivan County's FEMA declaration record compare with the Missouri average?
The typical Missouri county has 24.6 FEMA declaration records; Sullivan County has 24, or 3% fewer. Against the national county mean of 20.7, this county's total is 16% higher. The comparison is historical and says nothing about the probability of a future event.
How many major FEMA disaster declarations has Sullivan County received?
Sullivan County has received 18 major disaster declarations, representing 75% of all 24 disaster declarations.
How many flood insurance claims has Sullivan County filed?
Sullivan County has 2 National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims totaling $329 in payments, with an average of $164 per claim.
Does FEMA's top risk-rated hazard match the highest Expected Annual Loss in Sullivan County?
No. In Sullivan County, Landslide has the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively Low), while Riverine Flooding leads Expected Annual Loss at about $1.4M. FEMA's risk score and dollar-loss model use different inputs, so the leaders often differ.
What was the worst year for disasters in Sullivan County?
The most active year for disaster declarations in Sullivan County was 2008, with 3 declarations. The county has FEMA disaster data spanning 1973 to 2020.
What is the FEMA National Risk Index score for Sullivan County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, Sullivan County, Missouri has an overall risk score of 10.1 out of 100 (Very Low). The county's social vulnerability rating is Relatively Moderate and community resilience is Relatively Moderate. The Expected Annual Loss (EAL) score is Very Low, representing $4.4M in annualized losses.
Which natural hazard poses the greatest risk to Sullivan County?
Based on FEMA NRI data, the highest-risk natural hazard in Sullivan County as of the latest release is Landslide (risk rating: Relatively Low). Other significant hazards include Drought (Relatively Moderate) and Tornado (Relatively Low). FEMA's modeled event frequency puts landslide here at roughly once every 2 years. The underlying methodology weighs historical event frequency against exposed assets and community vulnerability.
Data Sources & Methodology
Disaster declaration data comes from the FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 API, which includes all federally declared disasters, emergencies, and fire management assistance grants.
Storm event data is sourced from the NOAA Storm Events Database (2015-2025), which tracks significant weather events including thunderstorms, tornadoes, floods, and winter storms.
Flood insurance data comes from the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA claims dataset.
This data is provided for informational purposes only. FEMA disaster declarations represent federal response actions and may not capture all local emergencies or weather events.
What this means for Sullivan County
Against a Missouri county mean of 25 declarations, Sullivan County, MO records 24, or 3% fewer. PlainHazard classifies that historical total as high activity.
- Major Disaster is the largest group (18 of 24) in a declaration history that remains below its state benchmark; frequency here is not a forecast. Missouri overview
- Nationally the county exceeds 66% of recorded county totals, but its own Missouri benchmark is higher. The ranking keeps those two contexts separate. Most-disaster rankings
- A short NFIP claims file cannot establish low flood exposure; the data guide explains the limits of each federal measure. Disaster-data guide
A below-average federal record is not a safety guarantee. Use National Weather Service alerts and local emergency-management notices for present conditions, not this historical comparison.
PlainHazard derives this profile from FEMA's Disaster Declarations Summaries and National Risk Index data. The declaration comparison covers 3,266 U.S. counties and county equivalents in this database, refreshed as of 2026-08-03. Read our methodology - how this data is sourced, computed, and verified.
All federal data sources used on this page
- FEMA OpenFEMA, Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 - all federally-declared disasters for this county. fema.gov/openfema/disaster-declarations
- FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) - per-county per-hazard risk ratings and expected annual loss. hazards.fema.gov/nri
- NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database - state-level storm/severe-weather event records, 2015-2025. ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents
Data sourced from official public datasets. See our methodology for details. Retrieved and formatted by PlainHazard Editorial
Verify with FEMA → · Verify with FEMA NRI → · Verify with NOAA →
Every figure on PlainHazard is rendered directly from FEMA federal disaster data, no number is typed in by an editor. See our editorial standards & corrections policy, the methodology behind these numbers, or national statistics report, the data & editorial changelog, or report a data error.