Erie County, Pennsylvania: hazard risk
FEMA rates Erie County's overall risk Relatively Moderate (score 84.1 of 100, higher than 84% of rated U.S. counties); 3 of its 15 hazards are rated Relatively High or Very High, led by lightning, winter weather, strong wind. Its storm record holds 1,264 events since 1950.
FEMA's rating for each hazard
These are FEMA's county-wide model ratings and this county's storm record. They are not an assessment of any property, address or building, and not insurance advice: a property's risk depends on its own elevation, construction and location.
FEMA gives each hazard its own rating, and a rating does not follow the score from one hazard to the next: a hazard with a higher score can carry a lower rating than another. The table sorts by FEMA's rating, then by score (0 to 100, the county against every other county for that hazard).
| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected annual loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lightning | Relatively High | 96.0 | $1.9M |
| Winter Weather | Relatively High | 95.0 | $614K |
| Strong Wind | Relatively High | 93.7 | $2.4M |
| Riverine Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 90.7 | $38M |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Moderate | 70.1 | $202K |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 66.6 | $2.1M |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 71.1 | $598K |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 60.1 | $417K |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 51.9 | $259K |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 40.6 | $216K |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 38.9 | $580K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 44.8 | $862 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 36.9 | $20K |
| Coastal Flooding | Very Low | 36.4 | $8K |
| Drought | No Rating | 0.0 | $0 |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, December 2025 release. A model of future loss, not a count of past events. FEMA's National Risk Index map.
What the record holds
| Hazard | Records | Deaths | Damage | Rank in state | Rank in U.S. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Severe thunderstorm wind | 398 | 1 | $9.0M | 32nd of 67 | 699th of 3,080 |
| Winter storms | 376 | 1 | $114M | 12th of 67 | 332nd of 3,077 |
| Hail | 206 | 0 | $5.7M | 6th of 67 | 951st of 3,080 |
| High wind and dust storms | 122 | 0 | $12M | 11th of 67 | 421st of 3,080 |
| Floods | 80 | 2 | $66M | 41st of 67 | 1015th of 3,080 |
| Tornadoes | 24 | 12 | $87M | 26th of 67 | 1794th of 3,080 |
| Extreme cold | 22 | 0 | $4.7M | 37th of 67 | 1401st of 3,076 |
| Drought | 10 | 0 | – | 44th of 67 | 2150th of 3,063 |
| Heat | 2 | 0 | – | 43rd of 67 | 2286th of 3,076 |
| Heavy rain | 2 | 0 | – | 27th of 67 | 2151st of 3,080 |
| Hurricanes and tropical storms | 2 | 0 | $221K | 14th of 67 | 872nd of 1,849 |
Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, 1950 to 2026-06-30; damage in 2025 dollars. Search the record at NCEI.
The full Erie County record: every hazard by year and month, the deadliest events and FEMA's declarations.