Merced County, California: hazard risk
FEMA rates Merced County's overall risk Relatively High (score 96.9 of 100, higher than 96% of rated U.S. counties); 5 of its 14 hazards are rated Relatively High or Very High, led by drought, earthquake, heat wave. Its storm record holds 1,946 events since 1950.
FEMA's rating for each hazard
These are FEMA's county-wide model ratings and this county's storm record. They are not an assessment of any property, address or building, and not insurance advice: a property's risk depends on its own elevation, construction and location.
FEMA gives each hazard its own rating, and a rating does not follow the score from one hazard to the next: a hazard with a higher score can carry a lower rating than another. The table sorts by FEMA's rating, then by score (0 to 100, the county against every other county for that hazard).
| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected annual loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drought | Very High | 99.9 | $70M |
| Earthquake | Relatively High | 98.5 | $62M |
| Heat Wave | Relatively High | 97.7 | $10M |
| Riverine Flooding | Relatively High | 94.7 | $59M |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 84.6 | $739K |
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate | 92.2 | $1.6M |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 67.1 | $403K |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 26.2 | $322K |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 20.4 | $151K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 54.7 | $2K |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 50.2 | $10 |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 19.6 | $14K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 3.4 | $1 |
| Cold Wave | No Rating | 0.0 | $0 |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, December 2025 release. A model of future loss, not a count of past events. FEMA's National Risk Index map.
What the record holds
| Hazard | Records | Deaths | Damage | Rank in state | Rank in U.S. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extreme cold | 422 | 0 | $582M | 3rd of 57 | 154th of 3,076 |
| High wind and dust storms | 257 | 0 | $8.7M | 24th of 57 | 477th of 3,080 |
| Heat | 209 | 32 | $332M | 11th of 57 | 616th of 3,076 |
| Drought | 155 | 0 | – | 18th of 57 | 1297th of 3,063 |
| Floods | 137 | 0 | $46M | 18th of 57 | 1960th of 3,080 |
| Heavy rain | 33 | 0 | $31M | 19th of 57 | 619th of 3,080 |
| Tornadoes | 17 | 0 | $2.3M | 10th of 57 | 2533rd of 3,080 |
| Wildfires | 17 | 1 | $24K | 40th of 57 | 313th of 2,972 |
| Hail | 11 | 0 | $2.8M | 29th of 57 | 2919th of 3,080 |
| Lightning | 9 | 0 | $1.2M | 8th of 57 | 1386th of 3,080 |
| Severe thunderstorm wind | 8 | 0 | $6.8M | 39th of 57 | 3001st of 3,080 |
| Winter storms | 7 | 0 | – | 48th of 57 | 3015th of 3,077 |
| Landslides and avalanches | 6 | 0 | – | 28th of 57 | 212th of 2,278 |
Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, 1950 to 2026-06-30; damage in 2025 dollars. Search the record at NCEI.
The full Merced County record: every hazard by year and month, the deadliest events and FEMA's declarations.