Shelby County, Tennessee: hazard risk
FEMA rates Shelby County's overall risk Relatively High (score 99.4 of 100, higher than 99% of rated U.S. counties); 9 of its 14 hazards are rated Relatively High or Very High, led by cold wave, tornado, heat wave. Its storm record holds 1,466 events since 1950.
FEMA's rating for each hazard
These are FEMA's county-wide model ratings and this county's storm record. They are not an assessment of any property, address or building, and not insurance advice: a property's risk depends on its own elevation, construction and location.
FEMA gives each hazard its own rating, and a rating does not follow the score from one hazard to the next: a hazard with a higher score can carry a lower rating than another. The table sorts by FEMA's rating, then by score (0 to 100, the county against every other county for that hazard).
| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected annual loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cold Wave | Very High | 99.8 | $62M |
| Tornado | Very High | 99.8 | $70M |
| Heat Wave | Relatively High | 99.6 | $49M |
| Earthquake | Relatively High | 99.5 | $215M |
| Riverine Flooding | Relatively High | 98.7 | $154M |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 96.2 | $1.7M |
| Ice Storm | Relatively High | 91.2 | $818K |
| Winter Weather | Relatively High | 88.7 | $290K |
| Strong Wind | Relatively High | 87.7 | $1.4M |
| Landslide | Relatively Moderate | 92.6 | $63K |
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 71.1 | $145K |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 67.1 | $350K |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 37.0 | $39K |
| Hail | Very Low | 12.8 | $33K |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, December 2025 release. A model of future loss, not a count of past events. FEMA's National Risk Index map.
What the record holds
| Hazard | Records | Deaths | Damage | Rank in state | Rank in U.S. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Severe thunderstorm wind | 574 | 6 | $104M | 19th of 95 | 195th of 3,080 |
| Hail | 312 | 0 | $890K | 3rd of 95 | 176th of 3,080 |
| Floods | 227 | 6 | $2.8B | 2nd of 95 | 176th of 3,080 |
| Heat | 135 | 65 | – | 10th of 95 | 128th of 3,076 |
| Winter storms | 61 | 1 | $51K | 81st of 95 | 1780th of 3,077 |
| Tornadoes | 56 | 7 | $386M | 4th of 95 | 259th of 3,080 |
| High wind and dust storms | 30 | 0 | $503K | 13th of 95 | 1247th of 3,080 |
| Lightning | 27 | 2 | $2.3M | 4th of 95 | 198th of 3,080 |
| Drought | 23 | 0 | – | 60th of 95 | 1334th of 3,063 |
| Extreme cold | 16 | 17 | – | 13th of 95 | 1084th of 3,076 |
| Heavy rain | 2 | 1 | – | 42nd of 95 | 1725th of 3,080 |
| Hurricanes and tropical storms | 1 | 0 | $45K | 36th of 95 | 981st of 1,849 |
| Wildfires | 1 | 0 | $86K | 5th of 95 | 1052nd of 2,972 |
Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, 1950 to 2026-06-30; damage in 2025 dollars. Search the record at NCEI.
The full Shelby County record: every hazard by year and month, the deadliest events and FEMA's declarations.