FEMA Records
4
Low volume
Idaho · FEMA + NOAA + National Risk Index
Bear Lake County, ID
4 FEMA disaster declarations (1977-2020), with a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Very Low. Most common hazard: Biological.
- 4
- FEMA declarations
- 1
- Major disasters
- 7
- NRI risk · Very Low
- Biological
- Top hazard
The verdict
The declaration register is comparatively quiet for Bear Lake County. Its 4 federal records sit 52% below the Idaho county mean and above the count for 1% of counties nationally. That historical total does not set the National Risk Index: FEMA's separate loss-and-vulnerability model ranks the county safer than 7%.
- Safer than 7%
- of U.S. counties for FEMA National Risk Index score
- Very Low
- FEMA National Risk Index rating
- 4
- FEMA declarations vs 21 national county avg
- 2
- biological declarations, the most common hazard here
FEMA's National Risk Index and its declaration registry are separate measures. This county's registry includes Major Disaster (DR) and Emergency (EM) records; an EM authorizes a narrower set of federal assistance than a DR.
FEMA OpenFEMA declaration desk
County FIPS 16007 · Bear Lake County 4 declarations · rank 3218/3,266
DECL-LIGHT · MAJOR-LIGHT · RANK-LOWER · PHOTO-FINISH · NRI-LOW · ACT-LOW · TYPE-LEAD · VS-ST-LOW
- DECL-LIGHT 4
- MAJOR-LIGHT 25%
- RANK-LOWER #3,218
- PHOTO-FINISH Canyon
- NRI-LOW Very Low
- ACT-LOW Low
- TYPE-LEAD Biological
- VS-ST-LOW -52%
Nearest declaration peer: Canyon, ID (0 declaration gap)
FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 filing stamps for this county register. Read with this county → · Idaho state profile
Bear Lake County among counties with fewer federal records
FEMA declaration records among Bear Lake County and nearest peers by total count
- Los Angeles · largest
Los Angeles · largest
88 declarations
- Bear Lake · this county 4
Bear Lake · this county
4 declarations
- Canyon · near 4
Canyon · near
4 declarations
- Sweetwater · near 4
Sweetwater · near
4 declarations
- Wayne · near 4
Wayne · near
4 declarations
- Ujelang · smallest 1
Ujelang · smallest
1 declarations
What this shows Bear Lake County carries 4 FEMA declaration records, ranked 3218 of 3,266 counties in this registry.
Bear Lake County versus quieter counties in this dataset
Bear Lake County among lower-declaration counties nationally
FEMA disaster declarations, all-time · Bear Lake County
4 1st percentile higher than 1% of 3,266 counties
Each bar is a band; taller bars hold more counties. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count, share, and where it sits relative to this entry.
Source FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 · 2026-08-25
Bear Lake County's FEMA Risk Index score
Which hazard drives modeled loss here?
FEMA's modeled annual dollar loss for Bear Lake County is led by Riverine Flooding (about $1.4M Expected Annual Loss, Historical Loss Ratio Relatively High), while Avalanche carries the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively Moderate). EAL and risk score use different inputs; they need not agree.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025 release) - Expected Annual Loss vs composite risk rating by hazard.
What does Bear Lake County's hazard record show?
FEMA National Risk Index
FEMA's National Risk Index places this county in the low end of the national distribution, composite score 6.6/100 (Very Low). Expected Annual Loss is rated Very Low (roughly $4.9M in annualized losses). Two modifiers shape how that exposure becomes real-world harm here: social vulnerability (Very Low) and community resilience (Relatively Moderate). Among the 18 modeled hazards, Avalanche carries the county's highest rating, a mid-range Relatively Moderate. FEMA's modeled frequency puts that hazard at roughly once every 10 years here, based on 3 historical events on record.
Reading the federal records together
No paid-claim row for this county appears in the NFIP county table used by PlainHazard. That absence is not evidence that flooding never occurred: the register observes claims under federal flood-insurance policies, not uninsured losses, emergency reports, or every flood outside the program. The FEMA declaration history below is therefore the available federal-action record on this page.
Start with the state benchmark: a Idaho county averages 8.3 federal declaration records, while Bear Lake County has 4. The gap is 52% below that mean. Fewer entries indicate a quieter history of recorded federal actions, not immunity from a hazard and not a prediction about what happens next.
23 /100
Historical Activity Index
Low historical activity
Bear Lake County, ID · PlainHazard-derived composite from federal records
This 0–100 index is an explicit PlainHazard composite from FEMA declaration history only on the county surface (this DB has no county-level NOAA damage row) . It is not FEMA's National Risk Index, not a forecast, and not a safety, insurance, or preparedness rating. Open the calculator · Methodology
FEMA Declarations (1953–present) Low
3/30
4 OpenFEMA declarations, full ingest window (0.2x national county average)
County Disaster Density Low
6/25
4 declarations (0.5x state county average of 8)
Major Disaster Share Low
6/25
1 of 4 declarations are major disasters (25%)
Hazard Diversity Moderate
8/20
3 different disaster types declared in Bear Lake County
FEMA NRI 8-hazard radar - Bear Lake County
How to read this radar
Each axis: NRI risk rating (Very Low-Very High) on a 0-100 scale. Rounder = broad exposure; spiky = one or two hazards dominate.
Major Disaster share
25%
Mixed major share
NRI risk score
7
Very Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Per-county per-hazard ratings, December 2025 release
How often does each hazard strike Bear Lake County?
FEMA's National Risk Index models a historical event count and an annualized frequency for each hazard type. Most hazards are expressed as modeled occurrences per year; FEMA expresses drought and heat-wave frequency as event-days per year. These modeled frequencies are not forecasts.
| Hazard | NRI Risk Rating | Recurrence |
|---|---|---|
| Avalanche | Relatively Moderate | roughly once every 10 years |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | an average of 1 time per year |
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | roughly once every 443 years |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | roughly once every 48 years |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | an average of 27 times per year |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | an average of 34 times per year |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | roughly once every 10,000 years |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | roughly once every 1 years |
| Drought | Very Low | 79 modeled event-days per year |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | roughly once every 3 years |
| Riverine Flooding | Very Low | roughly once every 3 years |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.2 modeled event-days per year |
| Hail | Very Low | roughly once every 4 years |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | roughly once every 67 years |
| Tornado | Very Low | roughly once every 16 years |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Modeled annualized frequency; drought and heat wave use event-days/year, December 2025 release
Disaster Types
Biological 2
Hurricane 1
Drought 1
What Biological declarations mean here
Biological is the most frequent declaration type on Bear Lake County's record, 50% of its declarations. In practice this category is dominated by the COVID-19 declarations of 2020, which were issued across every US state and territory rather than in response to any local hazard event.
This has a direct consequence for how Bear Lake County's number should be read. Because those declarations reached essentially every county in the country, they raise every county's total by a similar amount and tell you nothing about local hazard exposure. A county whose record is led by Biological declarations is, in most cases, a county with a genuinely quiet weather-hazard history, the pandemic records are simply the largest thing in an otherwise short list.
Declaration counts describe past federal action. They are a record of what was declared, not a forecast of future hazard probability.
Declaration Types
What DR / EM / FM mean
FEMA categorizes declarations as Major Disasters (DR), Emergencies (EM), or Fire Management Assistance (FM).
Emergency - 3 75.0%
of all 4 declarations
Major Disaster - 1 25.0%
of all 4 declarations
FEMA Declarations Timeline
| Year | Declarations | |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2 | |
| 2005 | 1 | |
| 1977 | 1 | |
Disaster Declarations
How the 4 FEMA declarations break into federal action codes (DR / EM / FM). Same DISTINCT grain as the table below.
Download these 4 declarations as CSV . FEMA source data is public domain; our derived presentation is CC0.
| DR# | Title | Type | Incident | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4534 | COVID-19 PANDEMIC | DR | Biological | 2020-04-09 |
| 3467 | COVID-19 | EM | Biological | 2020-03-13 |
| 3244 | HURRICANE KATRINA | EM | Hurricane | 2005-09-13 |
| 3040 | DROUGHT | EM | Drought | 1977-05-05 |
Storm Events in Idaho
Statewide NOAA context only. PlainHazard does not currently attribute these state totals to Bear Lake County.
| Storm Type | Events | Fatalities | Injuries | Property Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy Snow | 1,495 | 1 | 13 | $100.9M |
| Thunderstorm Wind | 1,087 | 9 | 26 | $3.6M |
| Winter Storm | 492 | 4 | 15 | $1.0M |
| High Wind | 396 | 4 | 6 | $10.6M |
| Winter Weather | 297 | 10 | 15 | $1.7M |
Source: NOAA Storm Events Database State-level aggregated data, 2015-2025
FEMA National Risk Index
Overall Risk
Very Low
Score: 6.6/100
Expected Annual Loss
Very Low
$4.9M/year
Social Vulnerability
Very Low
Community Resilience
Relatively Moderate
Hazard Risk Breakdown
Avalanche Relatively Moderate
Landslide Relatively Low
Wildfire Relatively Low
Earthquake Relatively Low
Winter Weather Relatively Low
Lightning Relatively Low
Volcanic Activity Very Low
Cold Wave Very Low
Drought Very Low
Strong Wind Very Low
Riverine Flooding Very Low
Heat Wave Very Low
Hail Very Low
Ice Storm Very Low
Tornado Very Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) Ratings reflect relative scores among all US counties. Data: hazards.fema.gov/nri
The model's sharpest exposure here: Avalanche
Avalanche is the most geographically restricted hazard in the model, limited to steep terrain holding seasonal snow. Its exposure concentrates on mountain roads, rail corridors and backcountry recreation rather than on the built environment generally.
Worth noting for Bear Lake County: the model and the federal record do NOT point at the same hazard. Avalanche carries the highest modeled rating (Relatively Moderate), while the county's declaration history is led by Biological. That is not a contradiction, the two measure genuinely different things. Declarations record federal ACTION, which requires damage costly enough to exceed state and local capacity; the Risk Index models EXPECTED annual loss across all 18 hazards whether or not any declaration ever followed. A hazard can be the county's largest modeled exposure and never once have driven a declaration.
National Risk Index ratings are modeled estimates of expected annual loss, not predictions of what will happen in any given year.
Data-matched county comparisons
Bear Lake County's closest FEMA peer: Nye County, NV
Comparisons use published FEMA declaration fields plus the National Risk Index composite for Bear Lake County. Record similarity, not a safety rating.
Closest declaration profiles
Bear Lake County shows 4 FEMA declarations, led by Biological.
Similar Major-disaster share
Bear Lake County: 1 of 4 of its declarations are Major.
Similar modeled NRI score
Bear Lake County: NRI composite 6.6 (Very Low).
How these peers are chosen
Cohort: Published U.S. county equivalents outside the source state or territory. Each metric keeps six ETL candidates; three unique destinations are shown after de-duplicating across axes. Declaration-volume ranking combines count and Major-disaster share and prefers a different leading incident type; Major-share ranks the Major fraction adjusted for volume; NRI ranks the modeled composite score only.
Retained FEMA snapshot feed for Bear Lake County - capture-dated entries only.
Compare beyond this state
Nationwide peers by NRI score & FEMA declaration volume
Two PlainHazard-derived comparison paths for Bear Lake County: nearest out-of-state National Risk Index composite and nearest FEMA declaration count (floor ≥5 records). Record similarity only, not a forecast of the next hazard.
Similar NRI composite
Nearest out-of-state counties by FEMA NRI score. This county: 6.6 (Very Low).
Similar declaration volume
Nearest out-of-state counties by FEMA declaration count. This county: 4. NRI peers are excluded so the two link sets stay distinct.
Further reading for this county
Understanding disaster data
FEMA's National Risk Index flags Avalanche as the top modeled exposure here (Relatively Moderate); the guide explains how that model differs from declaration counts.
More PlainHazard guides
- Most disaster-prone counties - U.S. counties ranked by FEMA declaration totals.
- Understanding disaster data - declarations vs storm events vs NRI scores.
- Preparing for natural disasters - household checklist (not county-specific advice).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most common disaster type in Bear Lake County?
The most common disaster type in Bear Lake County is Biological, with 2 declarations. Other disaster types include Hurricane (1), Drought (1).
How does Bear Lake County's FEMA declaration record compare with the Idaho average?
The typical Idaho county has 8.3 FEMA declaration records; Bear Lake County has 4, or 52% fewer. Against the national county mean of 20.7, this county's total is 81% lower. The comparison is historical and says nothing about the probability of a future event.
How many major FEMA disaster declarations has Bear Lake County received?
Bear Lake County has received 1 major disaster declaration, representing 25% of all 4 disaster declarations.
Does FEMA's top risk-rated hazard match the highest Expected Annual Loss in Bear Lake County?
No. In Bear Lake County, Avalanche has the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively Moderate), while Riverine Flooding leads Expected Annual Loss at about $1.4M. FEMA's risk score and dollar-loss model use different inputs, so the leaders often differ.
What was the worst year for disasters in Bear Lake County?
The most active year for disaster declarations in Bear Lake County was 2020, with 2 declarations. The county has FEMA disaster data spanning 1977 to 2020.
What is the FEMA National Risk Index score for Bear Lake County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, Bear Lake County, Idaho has an overall risk score of 6.6 out of 100 (Very Low). On social vulnerability the county rates Very Low; on community resilience, Relatively Moderate. The Expected Annual Loss (EAL) score is Very Low, representing $4.9M in annualized losses.
Which natural hazard poses the greatest risk to Bear Lake County?
The top hazard flagged by FEMA's NRI for Bear Lake County is Avalanche (risk rating: Relatively Moderate). Other significant hazards include Landslide (Relatively Low) and Wildfire (Relatively Low). FEMA's modeled event frequency puts avalanche here at roughly once every 10 years, drawn from 3 historical events on record. FEMA derives these ratings from historical event frequency, the assets exposed, and the community's vulnerability profile.
Data Sources & Methodology
Disaster declaration data comes from the FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 API, which includes all federally declared disasters, emergencies, and fire management assistance grants.
Storm event data is sourced from the NOAA Storm Events Database (2015-2025), which tracks significant weather events including thunderstorms, tornadoes, floods, and winter storms.
This data is provided for informational purposes only. FEMA disaster declarations represent federal response actions and may not capture all local emergencies or weather events.
FEMA OpenFEMA declarations + NRI for Bear Lake County · vintage 2026-08-25 · Methodology · Idaho profile · Verify with FEMA OpenFEMA · Verify with NOAA Storm Events