FEMA Records
10
Low volume
Pennsylvania · FEMA + NOAA + National Risk Index
Elk County, PA
10 FEMA disaster declarations (1972-2024), with a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Low. Most common hazard: Hurricane.
- 10
- FEMA declarations
- 6
- Major disasters
- 45
- NRI risk · Relatively Low
- Hurricane
- Top hazard
The verdict
Elk County has a nationally busy FEMA history: 10 declarations, more than 10% of counties in this registry. But the state comparison tempers that reading: the total is 46% below the Pennsylvania county mean. FEMA's separate National Risk Index places the county safer than 45%; that score models loss and vulnerability rather than counting declarations.
- Safer than 45%
- of U.S. counties for FEMA National Risk Index score
- Relatively Low
- FEMA National Risk Index rating
- 10
- FEMA declarations vs 21 national county avg
- 321
- NFIP flood insurance claims filed
FEMA's National Risk Index and its declaration registry are separate measures. This county's registry includes Major Disaster (DR) and Emergency (EM) records; an EM authorizes a narrower set of federal assistance than a DR.
FEMA OpenFEMA declaration desk
County FIPS 42047 · Elk County 10 declarations · rank 2909/3,266
DECL-MID · MAJOR-MID · RANK-LOWER · PHOTO-FINISH · NRI-LOW · ACT-HIGH · TYPE-LEAD · VS-ST-BELOW
- DECL-MID 10
- MAJOR-MID 60%
- RANK-LOWER #2,909
- PHOTO-FINISH Cheyenne
- NRI-LOW 45
- ACT-HIGH High
- TYPE-LEAD Hurricane
- VS-ST-BELOW -46%
Nearest declaration peer: Cheyenne, NE (0 declaration gap)
FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 filing stamps for this county register. Read with this county → · Pennsylvania state profile
Elk County among counties with fewer federal records
FEMA declaration records among Elk County and nearest peers by total count
- Los Angeles · largest
Los Angeles · largest
88 declarations
- Cheyenne · near 10
Cheyenne · near
10 declarations
- Clinton · near 10
Clinton · near
10 declarations
- Elk · this county 10
Elk · this county
10 declarations
- Golden Valley · near 10
Golden Valley · near
10 declarations
- Ujelang · smallest 1
Ujelang · smallest
1 declarations
What this shows Elk County carries 10 FEMA declaration records, ranked 2909 of 3,266 counties in this registry.
Elk County versus quieter counties in this dataset
Elk County among lower-declaration counties nationally
FEMA disaster declarations, all-time · Elk County
10 10th percentile higher than 10% of 3,266 counties
Each bar is a band; taller bars hold more counties. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count, share, and where it sits relative to this entry.
Source FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 · 2026-08-25
Elk County's FEMA Risk Index score
Which hazard drives modeled loss here?
FEMA's modeled annual dollar loss for Elk County is led by Riverine Flooding (about $13.1M Expected Annual Loss, Historical Loss Ratio Relatively High), while Lightning carries the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively Moderate). EAL and risk score use different inputs; they need not agree.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025 release) - Expected Annual Loss vs composite risk rating by hazard.
What does Elk County's hazard record show?
Reading the federal records together
The NFIP claims register shows a middle-volume loss record here: 321 paid claims, totaling $8.2M. PlainHazard uses 50-499 claims for this descriptive band; FEMA does not publish it as a safety or coverage category. The $25.5K average describes payments on recorded claims only, leaving uninsured damage and properties without a claim outside the measure.
Start with the state benchmark: a Pennsylvania county averages 18.6 federal declaration records, while Elk County has 10. The gap is 46% below that mean. Fewer entries indicate a quieter history of recorded federal actions, not immunity from a hazard and not a prediction about what happens next.
FEMA National Risk Index
FEMA's data shows an elevated National Risk Index composite of 45.2/100 for this county (Relatively Low rating). Expected Annual Loss comes in at Relatively Low (roughly $15.5M in annualized losses). Social vulnerability (Relatively Low) and community resilience (Very High) both factor into how that raw exposure plays out on the ground. Among the 18 modeled hazards, Lightning carries the county's highest rating, a mid-range Relatively Moderate. FEMA's modeled frequency puts that hazard at an average of 35 times per year here, based on 62,965 historical events on record.
44 /100
Historical Activity Index
Moderate historical activity
Elk County, PA · PlainHazard-derived composite from federal records
This 0–100 index is an explicit PlainHazard composite from FEMA declaration history only on the county surface (this DB has no county-level NOAA damage row) . It is not FEMA's National Risk Index, not a forecast, and not a safety, insurance, or preparedness rating. Open the calculator · Methodology
FEMA Declarations (1953–present) Low
7/30
10 OpenFEMA declarations, full ingest window (0.5x national county average)
County Disaster Density Moderate
7/25
10 declarations (0.5x state county average of 19)
Major Disaster Share High
15/25
6 of 10 declarations are major disasters (60%)
Hazard Diversity Very High
15/20
6 different disaster types declared in Elk County
FEMA NRI 8-hazard radar - Elk County
How to read this radar
Each axis: NRI risk rating (Very Low-Very High) on a 0-100 scale. Rounder = broad exposure; spiky = one or two hazards dominate.
Major Disaster share
60%
Major-heavy
NRI risk score
45
Relatively Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Per-county per-hazard ratings, December 2025 release
How often does each hazard strike Elk County?
FEMA's National Risk Index models a historical event count and an annualized frequency for each hazard type. Most hazards are expressed as modeled occurrences per year; FEMA expresses drought and heat-wave frequency as event-days per year. These modeled frequencies are not forecasts.
| Hazard | NRI Risk Rating | Recurrence |
|---|---|---|
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | an average of 35 times per year |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | roughly once every 1 years |
| Riverine Flooding | Relatively Low | roughly once every 2 years |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | an average of 19 times per year |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | roughly once every 20 years |
| Avalanche | Very Low | roughly once every 100 years |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | an average of 2 times per year |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | an average of 4 times per year |
| Earthquake | Very Low | roughly once every 2,336 years |
| Tornado | Very Low | roughly once every 5 years |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | roughly once every 3 years |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.4 modeled event-days per year |
| Hail | Very Low | an average of 1.2 times per year |
| Wildfire | Very Low | roughly once every 15,214 years |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Modeled annualized frequency; drought and heat wave use event-days/year, December 2025 release
Disaster Types
Hurricane 3
Biological 2
Flood 2
Tropical Storm 1
Severe Storm 1
Snowstorm 1
What Hurricane declarations mean here
Hurricane is the most frequent declaration type on Elk County's federal record, 30% of its declarations. Atlantic tropical systems run on a defined season, 1 June to 30 November, with most activity concentrated between August and October; Pacific and territorial basins run on their own calendars. A single named storm routinely produces one declaration number covering a long corridor of counties at once, well inland as well as on the coast, which is why an affected county's count can jump by several in one year without several separate events having occurred.
One practical distinction matters when reading these records: a tropical declaration usually bundles wind, storm surge and inland rainfall flooding under a single incident, but the insurance behind them is split. Wind damage falls to property insurers, while flood and surge damage is covered only under a separate National Flood Insurance Program policy. That is why a county can show heavy declaration activity and a comparatively small NFIP claims record, or the reverse.
Declaration counts describe past federal action. They are a record of what was declared, not a forecast of future hazard probability.
Declaration Types
What DR / EM / FM mean
FEMA categorizes declarations as Major Disasters (DR), Emergencies (EM), or Fire Management Assistance (FM).
Major Disaster - 6 60.0%
of all 10 declarations
Emergency - 4 40.0%
of all 10 declarations
FEMA Declarations Timeline
| Year | Declarations | |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 1 | |
| 2020 | 2 | |
| 2013 | 1 | |
| 2005 | 1 | |
| 2004 | 2 | |
| 1996 | 1 | |
| 1993 | 1 | |
| 1972 | 1 | |
Disaster Declarations
How the 10 FEMA declarations break into federal action codes (DR / EM / FM). Same DISTINCT grain as the table below.
Download these 10 declarations as CSV . FEMA source data is public domain; our derived presentation is CC0.
| DR# | Title | Type | Incident | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4815 | TROPICAL STORM DEBBY | DR | Tropical Storm | 2024-09-11 |
| 4506 | COVID-19 PANDEMIC | DR | Biological | 2020-03-30 |
| 3441 | COVID-19 | EM | Biological | 2020-03-13 |
| 3356 | HURRICANE SANDY | EM | Hurricane | 2012-10-29 |
| 3235 | HURRICANE KATRINA | EM | Hurricane | 2005-09-10 |
| 1557 | TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN | DR | Hurricane | 2004-09-19 |
| 1555 | SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCES | DR | Severe Storm | 2004-09-19 |
| 1093 | SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1996-01-21 |
| 3105 | SEVERE SNOWFALL & WINTER STORM | EM | Snowstorm | 1993-03-16 |
| 340 | TROPICAL STORM AGNES | DR | Flood | 1972-06-23 |
Storm Events in Pennsylvania
Statewide NOAA context only. PlainHazard does not currently attribute these state totals to Elk County.
| Storm Type | Events | Fatalities | Injuries | Property Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunderstorm Wind | 9,976 | 18 | 114 | $115.5M |
| Flash Flood | 2,288 | 23 | 8 | $463.2M |
| Winter Weather | 1,670 | 23 | 268 | $566.0K |
| Hail | 1,400 | 0 | 0 | $2.6M |
| Winter Storm | 881 | 14 | 17 | $2.9M |
Source: NOAA Storm Events Database State-level aggregated data, 2015-2025
NFIP Flood Insurance Claims
Total Claims
321
Total Paid
$8.2M
Avg Per Claim
$25.5K
Source: FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA Claims Data
FEMA National Risk Index
Overall Risk
Relatively Low
Score: 45.2/100
Expected Annual Loss
Relatively Low
$15.5M/year
Social Vulnerability
Relatively Low
Community Resilience
Very High
Hazard Risk Breakdown
Lightning Relatively Moderate
Landslide Relatively Low
Riverine Flooding Relatively Low
Winter Weather Relatively Moderate
Hurricane Relatively Low
Avalanche Very Low
Strong Wind Relatively Low
Cold Wave Relatively Low
Earthquake Very Low
Tornado Very Low
Ice Storm Very Low
Heat Wave Very Low
Hail Very Low
Wildfire Very Low
Drought No Rating
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) Ratings reflect relative scores among all US counties. Data: hazards.fema.gov/nri
The model's sharpest exposure here: Lightning
Lightning is modeled as a high-frequency, low-per-event hazard: strike counts are large, but each strike affects a very small area. Its aggregate cost accumulates through structure fires, electrical and electronic damage, and it is one of the few hazards whose risk is essentially continuous through the season rather than episodic.
Worth noting for Elk County: the model and the federal record do NOT point at the same hazard. Lightning carries the highest modeled rating (Relatively Moderate), while the county's declaration history is led by Hurricane. That is not a contradiction, the two measure genuinely different things. Declarations record federal ACTION, which requires damage costly enough to exceed state and local capacity; the Risk Index models EXPECTED annual loss across all 18 hazards whether or not any declaration ever followed. A hazard can be the county's largest modeled exposure and never once have driven a declaration.
National Risk Index ratings are modeled estimates of expected annual loss, not predictions of what will happen in any given year.
Data-matched county comparisons
Elk County's closest FEMA peer: Allen County, OH
Comparisons use published FEMA declaration fields plus the National Risk Index composite for Elk County. Record similarity, not a safety rating.
Closest declaration profiles
Elk County shows 10 FEMA declarations, led by Hurricane.
Similar Major-disaster share
Elk County: 6 of 10 of its declarations are Major.
Similar modeled NRI score
Elk County: NRI composite 45.2 (Relatively Low).
How these peers are chosen
Cohort: Published U.S. county equivalents outside the source state or territory. Each metric keeps six ETL candidates; three unique destinations are shown after de-duplicating across axes. Declaration-volume ranking combines count and Major-disaster share and prefers a different leading incident type; Major-share ranks the Major fraction adjusted for volume; NRI ranks the modeled composite score only.
Retained FEMA snapshot feed for Elk County - capture-dated entries only.
Compare beyond this state
Nationwide peers by NRI score & FEMA declaration volume
Two PlainHazard-derived comparison paths for Elk County: nearest out-of-state National Risk Index composite and nearest FEMA declaration count (floor ≥5 records). Record similarity only, not a forecast of the next hazard.
Similar NRI composite
Nearest out-of-state counties by FEMA NRI score. This county: 45.2 (Relatively Low).
Similar declaration volume
Nearest out-of-state counties by FEMA declaration count. This county: 10. NRI peers are excluded so the two link sets stay distinct.
Further reading for this county
Understanding disaster data
Elk County's NFIP claims file (321 claims) and FEMA declaration history measure different federal records - this guide separates them from modeled NRI risk.
More PlainHazard guides
- Most disaster-prone counties - U.S. counties ranked by FEMA declaration totals.
- Understanding disaster data - declarations vs storm events vs NRI scores.
- Preparing for natural disasters - household checklist (not county-specific advice).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most common disaster type in Elk County?
The most common disaster type in Elk County is Hurricane, with 3 declarations. Other disaster types include Biological (2), Flood (2), Tropical Storm (1).
How does Elk County's FEMA declaration record compare with the Pennsylvania average?
The typical Pennsylvania county has 18.6 FEMA declaration records; Elk County has 10, or 46% fewer. Against the national county mean of 20.7, this county's total is 52% lower. The comparison is historical and says nothing about the probability of a future event.
How many major FEMA disaster declarations has Elk County received?
Elk County has received 6 major disaster declarations, representing 60% of all 10 disaster declarations.
How many flood insurance claims has Elk County filed?
Elk County has 321 National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims totaling $8.2M in payments, with an average of $25.5K per claim.
Does FEMA's top risk-rated hazard match the highest Expected Annual Loss in Elk County?
No. In Elk County, Lightning has the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively Moderate), while Riverine Flooding leads Expected Annual Loss at about $13.1M. FEMA's risk score and dollar-loss model use different inputs, so the leaders often differ.
What was the worst year for disasters in Elk County?
The most active year for disaster declarations in Elk County was 2004, with 2 declarations. The county has FEMA disaster data spanning 1972 to 2024.
What is the FEMA National Risk Index score for Elk County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, Elk County, Pennsylvania has an overall risk score of 45.2 out of 100 (Relatively Low). The county's social vulnerability rating is Relatively Low and community resilience is Very High. The Expected Annual Loss (EAL) score is Relatively Low, representing $15.5M in annualized losses.
Which natural hazard poses the greatest risk to Elk County?
FEMA's NRI data points to Elk County is Lightning (risk rating: Relatively Moderate). Other significant hazards include Landslide (Relatively Low) and Riverine Flooding (Relatively Low). FEMA's modeled event frequency puts lightning here at an average of 35 times per year, drawn from 62,965 historical events on record. FEMA derives these ratings from historical event frequency, the assets exposed, and the community's vulnerability profile.
Data Sources & Methodology
Disaster declaration data comes from the FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 API, which includes all federally declared disasters, emergencies, and fire management assistance grants.
Storm event data is sourced from the NOAA Storm Events Database (2015-2025), which tracks significant weather events including thunderstorms, tornadoes, floods, and winter storms.
Flood insurance data comes from the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA claims dataset.
This data is provided for informational purposes only. FEMA disaster declarations represent federal response actions and may not capture all local emergencies or weather events.
FEMA OpenFEMA declarations + NRI for Elk County · vintage 2026-08-25 · Methodology · Pennsylvania profile · Verify with FEMA OpenFEMA · Verify with NOAA Storm Events