FEMA Records
17
Below median
Virginia · FEMA + NOAA + National Risk Index
Carroll County, VA
17 FEMA disaster declarations (1977-2026), with a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Low. Most common hazard: Hurricane.
- 17
- FEMA declarations
- 10
- Major disasters
- 45
- NRI risk · Relatively Low
- Hurricane
- Top hazard
The verdict
Carroll County has a nationally busy FEMA history: 17 declarations, more than 32% of counties in this registry. But the state comparison tempers that reading: the total is 17% below the Virginia county mean. FEMA's separate National Risk Index places the county safer than 45%; that score models loss and vulnerability rather than counting declarations.
- Safer than 45%
- of U.S. counties for FEMA National Risk Index score
- Relatively Low
- FEMA National Risk Index rating
- 17
- FEMA declarations vs 21 national county avg
- 21
- NFIP flood insurance claims filed
FEMA's National Risk Index and its declaration registry are separate measures. This county's registry includes Major Disaster (DR) and Emergency (EM) records; an EM authorizes a narrower set of federal assistance than a DR.
FEMA OpenFEMA declaration desk
County FIPS 51035 · Carroll County 17 declarations · rank 2099/3,266
DECL-MID · MAJOR-MID · RANK-LOWER · PHOTO-FINISH · NRI-LOW · ACT-HIGH · TYPE-LEAD · VS-ST-BELOW
- DECL-MID 17
- MAJOR-MID 59%
- RANK-LOWER #2,099
- PHOTO-FINISH Curry
- NRI-LOW 45
- ACT-HIGH High
- TYPE-LEAD Hurricane
- VS-ST-BELOW -17%
Nearest declaration peer: Curry, OR (0 declaration gap)
FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 filing stamps for this county register. Read with this county → · Virginia state profile
Carroll County among counties with fewer federal records
FEMA declaration records among Carroll County and nearest peers by total count
- Los Angeles · largest
Los Angeles · largest
88 declarations
- Carroll · this county 17
Carroll · this county
17 declarations
- Curry · near 17
Curry · near
17 declarations
- Murray · near 17
Murray · near
17 declarations
- Washington · near 17
Washington · near
17 declarations
- Ujelang · smallest 1
Ujelang · smallest
1 declarations
What this shows Carroll County carries 17 FEMA declaration records, ranked 2099 of 3,266 counties in this registry.
Carroll County versus quieter counties in this dataset
Carroll County among lower-declaration counties nationally
FEMA disaster declarations, all-time · Carroll County
17 32nd percentile higher than 32% of 3,266 counties
Each bar is a band; taller bars hold more counties. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count, share, and where it sits relative to this entry.
Source FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 · 2026-08-25
Carroll County's FEMA Risk Index score
Which hazard drives modeled loss here?
FEMA's modeled annual dollar loss for Carroll County is led by Cold Wave (about $4.6M Expected Annual Loss, Historical Loss Ratio Relatively High), while Landslide carries the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively Moderate). EAL and risk score use different inputs; they need not agree.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025 release) - Expected Annual Loss vs composite risk rating by hazard.
What does Carroll County's hazard record show?
FEMA National Risk Index
FEMA's data shows an elevated National Risk Index composite of 45.1/100 for this county (Relatively Low rating). Expected Annual Loss comes in at Very Low (roughly $9.9M in annualized losses). Social vulnerability (Very High) and community resilience (Very Low) both factor into how that raw exposure plays out on the ground. Among the 18 modeled hazards, Landslide carries the county's highest rating, a mid-range Relatively Moderate. FEMA's modeled frequency puts that hazard at an average of 1.3 times per year here.
Reading the federal records together
This county has a small entry in FEMA's NFIP paid-claims table: 21 claims and $239.5K paid in total. PlainHazard calls 1-49 claims a light registry record, a label for this dataset rather than a finding that flood exposure is low. A short claims history can also reflect insurance take-up, the period covered, or losses that were never insured.
Start with the state benchmark: a Virginia county averages 20.4 federal declaration records, while Carroll County has 17. The gap is 17% below that mean. Fewer entries indicate a quieter history of recorded federal actions, not immunity from a hazard and not a prediction about what happens next.
55 /100
Historical Activity Index
High historical activity
Carroll County, VA · PlainHazard-derived composite from federal records
This 0–100 index is an explicit PlainHazard composite from FEMA declaration history only on the county surface (this DB has no county-level NOAA damage row) . It is not FEMA's National Risk Index, not a forecast, and not a safety, insurance, or preparedness rating. Open the calculator · Methodology
FEMA Declarations (1953–present) Moderate
12/30
17 OpenFEMA declarations, full ingest window (0.8x national county average)
County Disaster Density Moderate
10/25
17 declarations (0.8x state county average of 20)
Major Disaster Share High
15/25
10 of 17 declarations are major disasters (59%)
Hazard Diversity Very High
18/20
7 different disaster types declared in Carroll County
FEMA NRI 8-hazard radar - Carroll County
How to read this radar
Each axis: NRI risk rating (Very Low-Very High) on a 0-100 scale. Rounder = broad exposure; spiky = one or two hazards dominate.
Major Disaster share
59%
Major-heavy
NRI risk score
45
Relatively Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Per-county per-hazard ratings, December 2025 release
How often does each hazard strike Carroll County?
FEMA's National Risk Index models a historical event count and an annualized frequency for each hazard type. Most hazards are expressed as modeled occurrences per year; FEMA expresses drought and heat-wave frequency as event-days per year. These modeled frequencies are not forecasts.
| Hazard | NRI Risk Rating | Recurrence |
|---|---|---|
| Landslide | Relatively Moderate | an average of 1.3 times per year |
| Cold Wave | Relatively High | an average of 3.9 times per year |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 6.6 modeled event-days per year |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | roughly once every 40 years |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | roughly once every 1 years |
| Avalanche | Very Low | roughly once every 100 years |
| Wildfire | Very Low | roughly once every 725 years |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | an average of 48 times per year |
| Earthquake | Very Low | roughly once every 690 years |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | an average of 10 times per year |
| Riverine Flooding | Relatively Low | an average of 1.9 times per year |
| Hail | Relatively Low | an average of 4.5 times per year |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | an average of 2.9 times per year |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | roughly once every 11 years |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Modeled annualized frequency; drought and heat wave use event-days/year, December 2025 release
Disaster Types
Severe Storm 3
Hurricane 3
Snowstorm 3
Flood 3
Tropical Storm 2
Biological 2
Winter Storm 1
What Hurricane declarations mean here
Hurricane is the most frequent declaration type on Carroll County's federal record, 18% of its declarations. Atlantic tropical systems run on a defined season, 1 June to 30 November, with most activity concentrated between August and October; Pacific and territorial basins run on their own calendars. A single named storm routinely produces one declaration number covering a long corridor of counties at once, well inland as well as on the coast, which is why an affected county's count can jump by several in one year without several separate events having occurred.
One practical distinction matters when reading these records: a tropical declaration usually bundles wind, storm surge and inland rainfall flooding under a single incident, but the insurance behind them is split. Wind damage falls to property insurers, while flood and surge damage is covered only under a separate National Flood Insurance Program policy. That is why a county can show heavy declaration activity and a comparatively small NFIP claims record, or the reverse.
Declaration counts describe past federal action. They are a record of what was declared, not a forecast of future hazard probability.
Declaration Types
What DR / EM / FM mean
FEMA categorizes declarations as Major Disasters (DR), Emergencies (EM), or Fire Management Assistance (FM).
Major Disaster - 10 58.8%
of all 17 declarations
Emergency - 7 41.2%
of all 17 declarations
FEMA Declarations Timeline
| Year | Declarations | |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | |
| 2025 | 2 | |
| 2024 | 1 | |
| 2020 | 2 | |
| 2018 | 1 | |
| 2013 | 1 | |
| 2012 | 1 | |
| 2005 | 1 | |
| 2000 | 1 | |
| 1996 | 1 | |
| 1994 | 1 | |
| 1993 | 1 | |
| 1992 | 1 | |
| 1978 | 1 | |
| 1977 | 1 | |
Disaster Declarations
How the 17 FEMA declarations break into federal action codes (DR / EM / FM). Same DISTINCT grain as the table below.
Download these 17 declarations as CSV . FEMA source data is public domain; our derived presentation is CC0.
| DR# | Title | Type | Incident | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3631 | SEVERE WINTER STORM | EM | Winter Storm | 2026-01-23 |
| 4863 | SEVERE WINTER STORMS AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2025-04-04 |
| 4831 | TROPICAL STORM HELENE | DR | Tropical Storm | 2024-10-01 |
| 3621 | POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HELENE | EM | Tropical Storm | 2024-09-29 |
| 4512 | COVID-19 PANDEMIC | DR | Biological | 2020-04-02 |
| 3448 | COVID-19 | EM | Biological | 2020-03-13 |
| 3403 | HURRICANE FLORENCE | EM | Hurricane | 2018-09-11 |
| 3359 | HURRICANE SANDY | EM | Hurricane | 2012-10-29 |
| 4072 | SEVERE STORMS AND STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS | DR | Severe Storm | 2012-07-27 |
| 3240 | HURRICANE KATRINA EVACUATION | EM | Hurricane | 2005-09-12 |
| 1318 | SEVERE WINTER STORMS | DR | Severe Storm | 2000-02-28 |
| 1086 | BLIZZARD OF 96 (SEVERE SNOW STORM) | DR | Snowstorm | 1996-01-13 |
| 1014 | SEVERE ICE STORMS, FLOODING | DR | Snowstorm | 1994-03-10 |
| 3112 | SEVERE WINTER STORM | EM | Snowstorm | 1993-03-25 |
| 944 | SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1992-05-19 |
| 543 | SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1977-11-12 |
| 530 | SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1977-04-07 |
Storm Events in Virginia
Statewide NOAA context only. PlainHazard does not currently attribute these state totals to Carroll County.
| Storm Type | Events | Fatalities | Injuries | Property Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunderstorm Wind | 8,940 | 13 | 31 | $123.1M |
| Flood | 2,300 | 4 | 0 | $85.1M |
| Winter Weather | 2,049 | 6 | 32 | $902.0K |
| Flash Flood | 1,942 | 13 | 4 | $244.2M |
| Heavy Rain | 1,566 | 0 | 0 | $2.5M |
Source: NOAA Storm Events Database State-level aggregated data, 2015-2025
NFIP Flood Insurance Claims
Total Claims
21
Total Paid
$239.5K
Avg Per Claim
$11.4K
Source: FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA Claims Data
FEMA National Risk Index
Overall Risk
Relatively Low
Score: 45.1/100
Expected Annual Loss
Very Low
$9.9M/year
Social Vulnerability
Very High
Community Resilience
Very Low
Hazard Risk Breakdown
Landslide Relatively Moderate
Cold Wave Relatively High
Drought Relatively Low
Hurricane Relatively Low
Ice Storm Relatively Low
Avalanche Very Low
Wildfire Very Low
Lightning Relatively Low
Earthquake Very Low
Winter Weather Relatively Low
Riverine Flooding Relatively Low
Hail Relatively Low
Strong Wind Relatively Low
Tornado Relatively Low
Heat Wave No Rating
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) Ratings reflect relative scores among all US counties. Data: hazards.fema.gov/nri
The model's sharpest exposure here: Landslide
Landslide risk is a function of slope, soil and water, so it is usually a SECOND-ORDER hazard: it is triggered by the rainfall, snowmelt, wildfire burn scars or seismic shaking that came first. That is why a county can carry high landslide exposure whose realized damage is recorded under a flood or storm declaration instead.
Worth noting for Carroll County: the model and the federal record do NOT point at the same hazard. Landslide carries the highest modeled rating (Relatively Moderate), while the county's declaration history is led by Hurricane. That is not a contradiction, the two measure genuinely different things. Declarations record federal ACTION, which requires damage costly enough to exceed state and local capacity; the Risk Index models EXPECTED annual loss across all 18 hazards whether or not any declaration ever followed. A hazard can be the county's largest modeled exposure and never once have driven a declaration.
National Risk Index ratings are modeled estimates of expected annual loss, not predictions of what will happen in any given year.
Data-matched county comparisons
Carroll County's closest FEMA peer: Wayne County, NY
Comparisons use published FEMA declaration fields plus the National Risk Index composite for Carroll County. Record similarity, not a safety rating.
Closest declaration profiles
Carroll County shows 17 FEMA declarations, led by Hurricane.
Similar Major-disaster share
Carroll County: 10 of 17 of its declarations are Major.
Similar modeled NRI score
Carroll County: NRI composite 45.1 (Relatively Low).
How these peers are chosen
Cohort: Published U.S. county equivalents outside the source state or territory. Each metric keeps six ETL candidates; three unique destinations are shown after de-duplicating across axes. Declaration-volume ranking combines count and Major-disaster share and prefers a different leading incident type; Major-share ranks the Major fraction adjusted for volume; NRI ranks the modeled composite score only.
Retained FEMA snapshot feed for Carroll County - capture-dated entries only.
Compare beyond this state
Nationwide peers by NRI score & FEMA declaration volume
Two PlainHazard-derived comparison paths for Carroll County: nearest out-of-state National Risk Index composite and nearest FEMA declaration count (floor ≥5 records). Record similarity only, not a forecast of the next hazard.
Similar NRI composite
Nearest out-of-state counties by FEMA NRI score. This county: 45.1 (Relatively Low).
Similar declaration volume
Nearest out-of-state counties by FEMA declaration count. This county: 17. NRI peers are excluded so the two link sets stay distinct.
Further reading for this county
Most disaster-prone counties
With 17 FEMA declarations, Carroll County sits in the high-volume declaration band - see how that count ranks against other U.S. counties.
More PlainHazard guides
- Most disaster-prone counties - U.S. counties ranked by FEMA declaration totals.
- Understanding disaster data - declarations vs storm events vs NRI scores.
- Preparing for natural disasters - household checklist (not county-specific advice).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most common disaster type in Carroll County?
The most common disaster type in Carroll County is Hurricane, with 3 declarations. Other disaster types include Severe Storm (3), Snowstorm (3), Flood (3).
How does Carroll County's FEMA declaration record compare with the Virginia average?
The typical Virginia county has 20.4 FEMA declaration records; Carroll County has 17, or 17% fewer. Against the national county mean of 20.7, this county's total is 18% lower. The comparison is historical and says nothing about the probability of a future event.
How many major FEMA disaster declarations has Carroll County received?
Carroll County has received 10 major disaster declarations, representing 59% of all 17 disaster declarations.
How many flood insurance claims has Carroll County filed?
Carroll County has 21 National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims totaling $239.5K in payments, with an average of $11.4K per claim.
Does FEMA's top risk-rated hazard match the highest Expected Annual Loss in Carroll County?
No. In Carroll County, Landslide has the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively Moderate), while Cold Wave leads Expected Annual Loss at about $4.6M. FEMA's risk score and dollar-loss model use different inputs, so the leaders often differ.
What was the worst year for disasters in Carroll County?
The most active year for disaster declarations in Carroll County was 2020, with 2 declarations. The county has FEMA disaster data spanning 1977 to 2026.
What is the FEMA National Risk Index score for Carroll County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, Carroll County, Virginia has an overall risk score of 45.1 out of 100 (Relatively Low). Social vulnerability here rates Very High, while community resilience comes in at Very Low. The Expected Annual Loss (EAL) score is Very Low, representing $9.9M in annualized losses.
Which natural hazard poses the greatest risk to Carroll County?
The top hazard flagged by FEMA's NRI for Carroll County is Landslide (risk rating: Relatively Moderate). Other significant hazards include Cold Wave (Relatively High) and Drought (Relatively Low). FEMA's modeled event frequency puts landslide here at an average of 1.3 times per year. FEMA derives these ratings from historical event frequency, the assets exposed, and the community's vulnerability profile.
Data Sources & Methodology
Disaster declaration data comes from the FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 API, which includes all federally declared disasters, emergencies, and fire management assistance grants.
Storm event data is sourced from the NOAA Storm Events Database (2015-2025), which tracks significant weather events including thunderstorms, tornadoes, floods, and winter storms.
Flood insurance data comes from the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA claims dataset.
This data is provided for informational purposes only. FEMA disaster declarations represent federal response actions and may not capture all local emergencies or weather events.
FEMA OpenFEMA declarations + NRI for Carroll County · vintage 2026-08-25 · Methodology · Virginia profile · Verify with FEMA OpenFEMA · Verify with NOAA Storm Events