FEMA Records
25
High volume
North Carolina · FEMA + NOAA + National Risk Index
Forsyth County, NC
25 FEMA disaster declarations (1977-2026), with a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Moderate. Most common hazard: Hurricane.
- 25
- FEMA declarations
- 11
- Major disasters
- 92
- NRI risk · Relatively Moderate
- Hurricane
- Top hazard
The verdict
Two federal records point in the busier direction for Forsyth County. Its 25 FEMA declarations are 4% above the North Carolina county mean and exceed the count for 71% of the 3,266 counties in this registry. Separately, FEMA's National Risk Index places it in the riskiest 8%, based on modeled expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience.
- Riskiest 8%
- of U.S. counties for FEMA National Risk Index score
- Relatively Moderate
- FEMA National Risk Index rating
- 25
- FEMA declarations vs 21 national county avg
- 440
- NFIP flood insurance claims filed
FEMA's National Risk Index and its declaration registry are separate measures. This county's registry includes Major Disaster (DR) and Emergency (EM) records; an EM authorizes a narrower set of federal assistance than a DR.
FEMA OpenFEMA declaration desk
County FIPS 37067 · Forsyth County 25 declarations · rank 917/3,266
DECL-HEAVY · MAJOR-LIGHT · RANK-LOWER · PHOTO-FINISH · NRI-MID · ACT-HIGH · TYPE-LEAD · VS-ST-ABOVE
- DECL-HEAVY 25
- MAJOR-LIGHT 44%
- RANK-LOWER #917
- PHOTO-FINISH Jefferson
- NRI-MID 92
- ACT-HIGH High
- TYPE-LEAD Hurricane
- VS-ST-ABOVE +4%
Nearest declaration peer: Jefferson, AR (0 declaration gap)
FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 filing stamps for this county register. Read with this county → · North Carolina state profile
Forsyth County among high-volume declaration counties
FEMA declaration records among Forsyth County and nearest peers by total count
- Los Angeles · largest
Los Angeles · largest
88 declarations
- Benton · near 25
Benton · near
25 declarations
- Forsyth · this county 25
Forsyth · this county
25 declarations
- Jefferson · near 25
Jefferson · near
25 declarations
- Lafayette · near 25
Lafayette · near
25 declarations
- Ujelang · smallest 1
Ujelang · smallest
1 declarations
What this shows Forsyth County carries 25 FEMA declaration records, ranked 917 of 3,266 counties in this registry.
Where Forsyth County ranks in the national declaration registry
Forsyth County vs. high-volume counties in this registry
FEMA disaster declarations, all-time · Forsyth County
25 Top 29% higher than 71% of 3,266 counties
Each bar is a band; taller bars hold more counties. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count, share, and where it sits relative to this entry.
Source FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 · 2026-08-25
Forsyth County's FEMA Risk Index score
Which hazard drives modeled loss here?
FEMA's modeled annual dollar loss for Forsyth County is led by Riverine Flooding (about $71.9M Expected Annual Loss, Historical Loss Ratio Relatively High), while Ice Storm carries the highest National Risk Index rating (Very High). EAL and risk score use different inputs; they need not agree.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025 release) - Expected Annual Loss vs composite risk rating by hazard.
What does Forsyth County's hazard record show?
Reading the federal records together
The NFIP claims register shows a middle-volume loss record here: 440 paid claims, totaling $4.7M. PlainHazard uses 50-499 claims for this descriptive band; FEMA does not publish it as a safety or coverage category. The $10.7K average describes payments on recorded claims only, leaving uninsured damage and properties without a claim outside the measure.
The declaration register points in the busier direction. Forsyth County's 25 federal records stand 4% above the North Carolina county mean of 24.0. That comparison describes how often federal action was recorded, including any Major Disaster, Emergency, and Fire Management entries shown on this page; it does not convert the count into future probability.
FEMA National Risk Index
This county sits among the highest-risk counties nationally on FEMA's National Risk Index, a composite score of 91.5/100 (Relatively Moderate). Expected Annual Loss is rated Relatively Moderate (roughly $104.1M in annualized losses). Social vulnerability reads Relatively Low and community resilience Relatively High, both critical modifiers of realized harm here. Of the 18 hazards FEMA models, Ice Storm stands out as the sharpest exposure here, rated Very High. FEMA's modeled frequency puts that hazard at an average of 2.1 times per year here, based on 143 historical events on record.
62 /100
Historical Activity Index
High historical activity
Forsyth County, NC · PlainHazard-derived composite from federal records
This 0–100 index is an explicit PlainHazard composite from FEMA declaration history only on the county surface (this DB has no county-level NOAA damage row) . It is not FEMA's National Risk Index, not a forecast, and not a safety, insurance, or preparedness rating. Open the calculator · Methodology
FEMA Declarations (1953–present) High
18/30
25 OpenFEMA declarations, full ingest window (1.2x national county average)
County Disaster Density High
13/25
25 declarations (1.0x state county average of 24)
Major Disaster Share Moderate
11/25
11 of 25 declarations are major disasters (44%)
Hazard Diversity Very High
20/20
8 different disaster types declared in Forsyth County
FEMA NRI 8-hazard radar - Forsyth County
How to read this radar
Each axis: NRI risk rating (Very Low-Very High) on a 0-100 scale. Rounder = broad exposure; spiky = one or two hazards dominate.
Major Disaster share
44%
Mixed major share
NRI risk score
92
Relatively Moderate
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Per-county per-hazard ratings, December 2025 release
How often does each hazard strike Forsyth County?
FEMA's National Risk Index models a historical event count and an annualized frequency for each hazard type. Most hazards are expressed as modeled occurrences per year; FEMA expresses drought and heat-wave frequency as event-days per year. These modeled frequencies are not forecasts.
| Hazard | NRI Risk Rating | Recurrence |
|---|---|---|
| Ice Storm | Very High | an average of 2.1 times per year |
| Riverine Flooding | Relatively High | an average of 1.6 times per year |
| Winter Weather | Relatively High | an average of 7.8 times per year |
| Tornado | Relatively High | roughly once every 7 years |
| Cold Wave | Relatively High | roughly once every 1 years |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | roughly once every 689 years |
| Lightning | Relatively High | an average of 48 times per year |
| Hurricane | Relatively Moderate | roughly once every 12 years |
| Strong Wind | Relatively High | an average of 2.6 times per year |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | an average of 4.9 times per year |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 1.8 modeled event-days per year |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | roughly once every 2 years |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 20 modeled event-days per year |
| Wildfire | Very Low | roughly once every 20,658 years |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Modeled annualized frequency; drought and heat wave use event-days/year, December 2025 release
Disaster Types
Hurricane 11
Snowstorm 4
Tropical Storm 3
Biological 2
Severe Ice Storm 2
Winter Storm 1
Tornado 1
Drought 1
What Hurricane declarations mean here
Hurricane is the most frequent declaration type on Forsyth County's federal record, 44% of its declarations. Atlantic tropical systems run on a defined season, 1 June to 30 November, with most activity concentrated between August and October; Pacific and territorial basins run on their own calendars. A single named storm routinely produces one declaration number covering a long corridor of counties at once, well inland as well as on the coast, which is why an affected county's count can jump by several in one year without several separate events having occurred.
One practical distinction matters when reading these records: a tropical declaration usually bundles wind, storm surge and inland rainfall flooding under a single incident, but the insurance behind them is split. Wind damage falls to property insurers, while flood and surge damage is covered only under a separate National Flood Insurance Program policy. That is why a county can show heavy declaration activity and a comparatively small NFIP claims record, or the reverse.
Declaration counts describe past federal action. They are a record of what was declared, not a forecast of future hazard probability.
Declaration Types
What DR / EM / FM mean
FEMA categorizes declarations as Major Disasters (DR), Emergencies (EM), or Fire Management Assistance (FM).
Emergency - 14 56.0%
of all 25 declarations
Major Disaster - 11 44.0%
of all 25 declarations
FEMA Declarations Timeline
| Year | Declarations | |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | |
| 2024 | 3 | |
| 2023 | 1 | |
| 2020 | 3 | |
| 2019 | 2 | |
| 2018 | 1 | |
| 2017 | 1 | |
| 2005 | 1 | |
| 2004 | 1 | |
| 2003 | 2 | |
| 1999 | 2 | |
| 1996 | 2 | |
| 1993 | 1 | |
| 1989 | 2 | |
| 1977 | 2 | |
Disaster Declarations
How the 25 FEMA declarations break into federal action codes (DR / EM / FM). Same DISTINCT grain as the table below.
Download these 25 declarations as CSV . FEMA source data is public domain; our derived presentation is CC0.
| DR# | Title | Type | Incident | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3637 | SEVERE WINTER STORM | EM | Winter Storm | 2026-01-24 |
| 4827 | TROPICAL STORM HELENE | DR | Tropical Storm | 2024-09-28 |
| 3617 | HURRICANE HELENE | EM | Tropical Storm | 2024-09-26 |
| 3608 | TROPICAL STORM DEBBY | EM | Tropical Storm | 2024-08-06 |
| 3586 | HURRICANE IAN | EM | Hurricane | 2022-10-01 |
| 3534 | HURRICANE ISAIAS | EM | Hurricane | 2020-08-02 |
| 4487 | COVID-19 PANDEMIC | DR | Biological | 2020-03-25 |
| 3471 | COVID-19 | EM | Biological | 2020-03-13 |
| 3423 | HURRICANE DORIAN | EM | Hurricane | 2019-09-03 |
| 4412 | TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL | DR | Hurricane | 2019-01-31 |
| 3401 | HURRICANE FLORENCE | EM | Hurricane | 2018-09-10 |
| 3380 | HURRICANE MATTHEW | EM | Hurricane | 2016-10-07 |
| 3222 | HURRICANE KATRINA EVACUATION | EM | Hurricane | 2005-09-05 |
| 1553 | HURRICANE IVAN | DR | Hurricane | 2004-09-18 |
| 1457 | ICE STORM | DR | Severe Ice Storm | 2003-03-27 |
| 1448 | SEVERE ICE STORM | DR | Severe Ice Storm | 2002-12-12 |
| 1292 | HURRICANE FLOYD MAJOR DISASTER DECLARATIONS | DR | Hurricane | 1999-09-16 |
| 3146 | HURRICANE FLOYD EMERGENCY DECLARATIONS | EM | Hurricane | 1999-09-15 |
| 1103 | WINTER STORM | DR | Snowstorm | 1996-02-23 |
| 1087 | BLIZZARD OF 96 | DR | Snowstorm | 1996-01-13 |
Show 5 earlier declaration records
| DR# | Title | Type | Incident | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3110 | SEVERE SNOWFALL & WINTER STORM | EM | Snowstorm | 1993-03-17 |
| 844 | HURRICANE HUGO | DR | Hurricane | 1989-09-25 |
| 827 | TORNADOES | DR | Tornado | 1989-05-17 |
| 3049 | DROUGHT | EM | Drought | 1977-08-11 |
| 3033 | DROUGHT & FREEZING | EM | Snowstorm | 1977-03-02 |
Storm Events in North Carolina
Statewide NOAA context only. PlainHazard does not currently attribute these state totals to Forsyth County.
| Storm Type | Events | Fatalities | Injuries | Property Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunderstorm Wind | 7,123 | 11 | 60 | $62.9M |
| Flash Flood | 1,881 | 105 | 6 | $2.3B |
| Hail | 1,623 | 0 | 0 | $122.5M |
| Winter Weather | 1,272 | 6 | 2 | $425.0K |
| Winter Storm | 743 | 7 | 0 | $10.7M |
Source: NOAA Storm Events Database State-level aggregated data, 2015-2025
NFIP Flood Insurance Claims
Total Claims
440
Total Paid
$4.7M
Avg Per Claim
$10.7K
Source: FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA Claims Data
FEMA National Risk Index
Overall Risk
Relatively Moderate
Score: 91.5/100
Expected Annual Loss
Relatively Moderate
$104.1M/year
Social Vulnerability
Relatively Low
Community Resilience
Relatively High
Hazard Risk Breakdown
Ice Storm Very High
Riverine Flooding Relatively High
Winter Weather Relatively High
Tornado Relatively High
Cold Wave Relatively High
Earthquake Relatively Low
Lightning Relatively High
Hurricane Relatively Moderate
Strong Wind Relatively High
Hail Relatively Moderate
Heat Wave Relatively Moderate
Landslide Relatively Low
Drought Relatively Low
Wildfire Very Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) Ratings reflect relative scores among all US counties. Data: hazards.fema.gov/nri
The model's sharpest exposure here: Ice Storm
Ice storms load power lines and tree limbs with accumulating freezing rain until they fail. The characteristic cost is infrastructure and multi-day power loss across a wide area rather than structural damage to buildings, which is why their consequences often outlast the weather that caused them.
Worth noting for Forsyth County: the model and the federal record do NOT point at the same hazard. Ice Storm carries the highest modeled rating (Very High), while the county's declaration history is led by Hurricane. That is not a contradiction, the two measure genuinely different things. Declarations record federal ACTION, which requires damage costly enough to exceed state and local capacity; the Risk Index models EXPECTED annual loss across all 18 hazards whether or not any declaration ever followed. A hazard can be the county's largest modeled exposure and never once have driven a declaration.
National Risk Index ratings are modeled estimates of expected annual loss, not predictions of what will happen in any given year.
Data-matched county comparisons
Forsyth County's closest FEMA peer: Genesee County, NY
Comparisons use published FEMA declaration fields plus the National Risk Index composite for Forsyth County. Record similarity, not a safety rating.
Closest declaration profiles
Forsyth County shows 25 FEMA declarations, led by Hurricane.
Similar Major-disaster share
Forsyth County: 11 of 25 of its declarations are Major.
Similar modeled NRI score
Forsyth County: NRI composite 91.5 (Relatively Moderate).
How these peers are chosen
Cohort: Published U.S. county equivalents outside the source state or territory. Each metric keeps six ETL candidates; three unique destinations are shown after de-duplicating across axes. Declaration-volume ranking combines count and Major-disaster share and prefers a different leading incident type; Major-share ranks the Major fraction adjusted for volume; NRI ranks the modeled composite score only.
Retained FEMA snapshot feed for Forsyth County - capture-dated entries only.
Compare beyond this state
Nationwide peers by NRI score & FEMA declaration volume
Two PlainHazard-derived comparison paths for Forsyth County: nearest out-of-state National Risk Index composite and nearest FEMA declaration count (floor ≥5 records). Record similarity only, not a forecast of the next hazard.
Similar NRI composite
Nearest out-of-state counties by FEMA NRI score. This county: 91.5 (Relatively Moderate).
Similar declaration volume
Nearest out-of-state counties by FEMA declaration count. This county: 25. NRI peers are excluded so the two link sets stay distinct.
Further reading for this county
Understanding disaster data
Forsyth County's NFIP claims file (440 claims) and FEMA declaration history measure different federal records - this guide separates them from modeled NRI risk.
More PlainHazard guides
- Most disaster-prone counties - U.S. counties ranked by FEMA declaration totals.
- Understanding disaster data - declarations vs storm events vs NRI scores.
- Preparing for natural disasters - household checklist (not county-specific advice).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most common disaster type in Forsyth County?
The most common disaster type in Forsyth County is Hurricane, with 11 declarations. Other disaster types include Snowstorm (4), Tropical Storm (3), Biological (2).
How does Forsyth County's FEMA declaration record compare with the North Carolina average?
FEMA lists 25 declaration records for Forsyth County. That is 4% above the North Carolina county mean of 24.0. Its count is also 21% above the national county mean of 20.7. A larger declaration history records more federal actions; it is not a forecast of the county's next hazard.
How many major FEMA disaster declarations has Forsyth County received?
Forsyth County has received 11 major disaster declarations, representing 44% of all 25 disaster declarations.
How many flood insurance claims has Forsyth County filed?
Forsyth County has 440 National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims totaling $4.7M in payments, with an average of $10.7K per claim.
Does FEMA's top risk-rated hazard match the highest Expected Annual Loss in Forsyth County?
No. In Forsyth County, Ice Storm has the highest National Risk Index rating (Very High), while Riverine Flooding leads Expected Annual Loss at about $71.9M. FEMA's risk score and dollar-loss model use different inputs, so the leaders often differ.
What was the worst year for disasters in Forsyth County?
The most active year for disaster declarations in Forsyth County was 2020, with 3 declarations. The county has FEMA disaster data spanning 1977 to 2026.
What is the FEMA National Risk Index score for Forsyth County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, Forsyth County, North Carolina has an overall risk score of 91.5 out of 100 (Relatively Moderate). Social vulnerability here rates Relatively Low, while community resilience comes in at Relatively High. The Expected Annual Loss (EAL) score is Relatively Moderate, representing $104.1M in annualized losses.
Which natural hazard poses the greatest risk to Forsyth County?
The top hazard flagged by FEMA's NRI for Forsyth County as of the latest release is Ice Storm (risk rating: Very High). Other significant hazards include Riverine Flooding (Relatively High) and Winter Weather (Relatively High). FEMA's modeled event frequency puts ice storm here at an average of 2.1 times per year, drawn from 143 historical events on record. The underlying methodology weighs historical event frequency against exposed assets and community vulnerability.
Data Sources & Methodology
Disaster declaration data comes from the FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 API, which includes all federally declared disasters, emergencies, and fire management assistance grants.
Storm event data is sourced from the NOAA Storm Events Database (2015-2025), which tracks significant weather events including thunderstorms, tornadoes, floods, and winter storms.
Flood insurance data comes from the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA claims dataset.
This data is provided for informational purposes only. FEMA disaster declarations represent federal response actions and may not capture all local emergencies or weather events.
FEMA OpenFEMA declarations + NRI for Forsyth County · vintage 2026-08-25 · Methodology · North Carolina profile · Verify with FEMA OpenFEMA · Verify with NOAA Storm Events