FEMA Records
17
Below median
California · FEMA + NOAA + National Risk Index
Modoc County, CA
17 FEMA disaster declarations (1965-2023), with a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Very Low. Most common hazard: Flood.
- 17
- FEMA declarations
- 13
- Major disasters
- 40
- NRI risk · Very Low
- Flood
- Top hazard
The verdict
Modoc County has a nationally busy FEMA history: 17 declarations, more than 32% of counties in this registry. But the state comparison tempers that reading: the total is 40% below the California county mean. FEMA's separate National Risk Index places the county safer than 40%; that score models loss and vulnerability rather than counting declarations.
- Safer than 40%
- of U.S. counties for FEMA National Risk Index score
- Very Low
- FEMA National Risk Index rating
- 17
- FEMA declarations vs 21 national county avg
- 7
- flood declarations, the most common hazard here
FEMA's National Risk Index and its declaration registry are separate measures. This county's registry includes Fire Management Assistance (FM) records, which are not presidential disaster declarations, alongside Major Disaster (DR) and Emergency (EM) records.
FEMA OpenFEMA declaration desk
County FIPS 06049 · Modoc County 17 declarations · rank 2102/3,266
DECL-MID · MAJOR-MID · RANK-LOWER · PHOTO-FINISH · NRI-LOW · ACT-HIGH · TYPE-LEAD · VS-ST-BELOW
- DECL-MID 17
- MAJOR-MID 76%
- RANK-LOWER #2,102
- PHOTO-FINISH Curry
- NRI-LOW Very Low
- ACT-HIGH High
- TYPE-LEAD Flood
- VS-ST-BELOW -40%
Nearest declaration peer: Curry, OR (0 declaration gap)
FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 filing stamps for this county register. Read with this county → · California state profile
Modoc County among counties with fewer federal records
FEMA declaration records among Modoc County and nearest peers by total count
- Los Angeles · largest
Los Angeles · largest
88 declarations
- Curry · near 17
Curry · near
17 declarations
- Modoc · this county 17
Modoc · this county
17 declarations
- Murray · near 17
Murray · near
17 declarations
- Washington · near 17
Washington · near
17 declarations
- Ujelang · smallest 1
Ujelang · smallest
1 declarations
What this shows Modoc County carries 17 FEMA declaration records, ranked 2102 of 3,266 counties in this registry.
Modoc County versus quieter counties in this dataset
Modoc County among lower-declaration counties nationally
FEMA disaster declarations, all-time · Modoc County
17 32nd percentile higher than 32% of 3,266 counties
Each bar is a band; taller bars hold more counties. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count, share, and where it sits relative to this entry.
Source FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 · 2026-08-25
Modoc County's FEMA Risk Index score
Which hazard drives modeled loss here?
FEMA's modeled annual dollar loss for Modoc County is led by Riverine Flooding (about $4.5M Expected Annual Loss, Historical Loss Ratio Relatively Moderate), while Drought carries the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively High). EAL and risk score use different inputs; they need not agree.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025 release) - Expected Annual Loss vs composite risk rating by hazard.
What does Modoc County's hazard record show?
FEMA National Risk Index
FEMA's data shows an elevated National Risk Index composite of 39.7/100 for this county (Very Low rating). Expected Annual Loss comes in at Very Low (roughly $9.8M in annualized losses). Social vulnerability (Relatively High) and community resilience (Relatively Low) both factor into how that raw exposure plays out on the ground. Of the 18 hazards FEMA models, Drought stands out as the sharpest exposure here, rated Relatively High. FEMA's modeled frequency puts that hazard at 98 modeled event-days per year here, based on 2,800 historical events on record.
Reading the federal records together
No paid-claim row for this county appears in the NFIP county table used by PlainHazard. That absence is not evidence that flooding never occurred: the register observes claims under federal flood-insurance policies, not uninsured losses, emergency reports, or every flood outside the program. The FEMA declaration history below is therefore the available federal-action record on this page.
Start with the state benchmark: a California county averages 28.5 federal declaration records, while Modoc County has 17. The gap is 40% below that mean. Fewer entries indicate a quieter history of recorded federal actions, not immunity from a hazard and not a prediction about what happens next.
53 /100
Historical Activity Index
High historical activity
Modoc County, CA · PlainHazard-derived composite from federal records
This 0–100 index is an explicit PlainHazard composite from FEMA declaration history only on the county surface (this DB has no county-level NOAA damage row) . It is not FEMA's National Risk Index, not a forecast, and not a safety, insurance, or preparedness rating. Open the calculator · Methodology
FEMA Declarations (1953–present) Moderate
12/30
17 OpenFEMA declarations, full ingest window (0.8x national county average)
County Disaster Density Moderate
7/25
17 declarations (0.6x state county average of 29)
Major Disaster Share Very High
19/25
13 of 17 declarations are major disasters (76%)
Hazard Diversity Very High
15/20
6 different disaster types declared in Modoc County
FEMA NRI 8-hazard radar - Modoc County
How to read this radar
Each axis: NRI risk rating (Very Low-Very High) on a 0-100 scale. Rounder = broad exposure; spiky = one or two hazards dominate.
Major Disaster share
76%
Mostly major
NRI risk score
40
Very Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Per-county per-hazard ratings, December 2025 release
How often does each hazard strike Modoc County?
FEMA's National Risk Index models a historical event count and an annualized frequency for each hazard type. Most hazards are expressed as modeled occurrences per year; FEMA expresses drought and heat-wave frequency as event-days per year. These modeled frequencies are not forecasts.
| Hazard | NRI Risk Rating | Recurrence |
|---|---|---|
| Drought | Relatively High | 98 modeled event-days per year |
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate | roughly once every 187 years |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | roughly once every 417 years |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | roughly once every 66 years |
| Riverine Flooding | Relatively Low | roughly once every 2 years |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | an average of 17 times per year |
| Landslide | Very Low | roughly once every 1 years |
| Avalanche | Very Low | roughly once every 100 years |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 3.3 modeled event-days per year |
| Lightning | Very Low | an average of 14 times per year |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | roughly once every 11 years |
| Hail | Very Low | roughly once every 22 years |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | roughly once every 32 years |
| Tornado | Very Low | roughly once every 53 years |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Modeled annualized frequency; drought and heat wave use event-days/year, December 2025 release
Disaster Types
Flood 7
Severe Storm 5
Biological 2
Fire 1
Hurricane 1
Drought 1
What Flood declarations mean here
Flood is the most frequent declaration type on Modoc County's record, 41% of its declarations. Federal flood declarations cover two mechanisms that behave very differently: riverine flooding, which builds over days as a watershed drains and is usually forecast well in advance, and flash flooding, which can arrive in under an hour from rainfall that fell somewhere upstream.
Flood is also the one hazard class where a second federal dataset exists for the same events. The National Flood Insurance Program records what was actually paid on insured losses, so it measures a narrower thing than the declaration count: uninsured damage, and flooding outside mapped special flood hazard areas, never enters it. Reading the two together is more informative than either alone.
Declaration counts describe past federal action. They are a record of what was declared, not a forecast of future hazard probability.
Declaration Types
What DR / EM / FM mean
FEMA categorizes declarations as Major Disasters (DR), Emergencies (EM), or Fire Management Assistance (FM).
Major Disaster - 13 76.5%
of all 17 declarations
Emergency - 3 17.6%
of all 17 declarations
Fire Management - 1 5.9%
of all 17 declarations
FEMA Declarations Timeline
| Year | Declarations | |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 1 | |
| 2020 | 2 | |
| 2019 | 1 | |
| 2017 | 2 | |
| 2014 | 1 | |
| 2005 | 1 | |
| 1997 | 1 | |
| 1995 | 2 | |
| 1993 | 1 | |
| 1986 | 1 | |
| 1977 | 1 | |
| 1970 | 1 | |
| 1969 | 1 | |
| 1965 | 1 | |
Disaster Declarations
How the 17 FEMA declarations break into federal action codes (DR / EM / FM). Same DISTINCT grain as the table below.
Download these 17 declarations as CSV . FEMA source data is public domain; our derived presentation is CC0.
| DR# | Title | Type | Incident | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4699 | SEVERE WINTER STORMS, STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES, AND MUDSLIDES | DR | Severe Storm | 2023-04-03 |
| 4482 | COVID-19 PANDEMIC | DR | Biological | 2020-03-22 |
| 3428 | COVID-19 | EM | Biological | 2020-03-13 |
| 4431 | SEVERE WINTER STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES, AND MUDSLIDES | DR | Severe Storm | 2019-05-01 |
| 4308 | SEVERE WINTER STORMS, FLOODING, AND MUDSLIDES | DR | Flood | 2017-04-01 |
| 4305 | SEVERE WINTER STORMS, FLOODING, AND MUDSLIDES | DR | Flood | 2017-03-16 |
| 5070 | DAY FIRE | FM | Fire | 2014-08-03 |
| 3248 | HURRICANE KATRINA EVACUATION | EM | Hurricane | 2005-09-13 |
| 1155 | SEVERE STORMS, FLOODING, MUD AND LANDSLIDES | DR | Severe Storm | 1997-01-04 |
| 1046 | SEVERE WINTER STORMS, FLOODING LANDSLIDES, MUD FLOW | DR | Severe Storm | 1995-03-12 |
| 1044 | SEVERE WINTER STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES, MUD FLOWS | DR | Severe Storm | 1995-01-10 |
| 979 | SEVERE WINTER STORM, MUD & LAND SLIDES, & FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1993-02-03 |
| 758 | SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1986-02-21 |
| 3023 | DROUGHT | EM | Drought | 1977-01-20 |
| 283 | SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1970-02-16 |
| 253 | SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1969-01-26 |
| 183 | HEAVY RAINS & FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1964-12-24 |
Storm Events in California
Statewide NOAA context only. PlainHazard does not currently attribute these state totals to Modoc County.
| Storm Type | Events | Fatalities | Injuries | Property Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| High Wind | 4,070 | 13 | 27 | $228.2M |
| Flood | 3,132 | 26 | 25 | $985.1M |
| Heavy Snow | 1,814 | 6 | 0 | $1.6M |
| Dense Fog | 1,605 | 52 | 148 | $2.8M |
| Drought | 1,421 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
Source: NOAA Storm Events Database State-level aggregated data, 2015-2025
FEMA National Risk Index
Overall Risk
Very Low
Score: 39.7/100
Expected Annual Loss
Very Low
$9.8M/year
Social Vulnerability
Relatively High
Community Resilience
Relatively Low
Hazard Risk Breakdown
Drought Relatively High
Wildfire Relatively Moderate
Volcanic Activity Very Low
Earthquake Relatively Low
Riverine Flooding Relatively Low
Winter Weather Relatively Low
Landslide Very Low
Avalanche Very Low
Heat Wave Very Low
Lightning Very Low
Cold Wave Very Low
Hail Very Low
Strong Wind Very Low
Tornado Very Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) Ratings reflect relative scores among all US counties. Data: hazards.fema.gov/nri
The model's sharpest exposure here: Drought
Drought is the slowest of the modeled hazards and the least visible: it does its damage to agriculture, water supply and soil over seasons rather than hours, so it rarely produces the kind of single-day damage that drives a disaster declaration. FEMA scores it in event-days per year rather than discrete events for exactly that reason.
Worth noting for Modoc County: the model and the federal record do NOT point at the same hazard. Drought carries the highest modeled rating (Relatively High), while the county's declaration history is led by Flood. That is not a contradiction, the two measure genuinely different things. Declarations record federal ACTION, which requires damage costly enough to exceed state and local capacity; the Risk Index models EXPECTED annual loss across all 18 hazards whether or not any declaration ever followed. A hazard can be the county's largest modeled exposure and never once have driven a declaration.
National Risk Index ratings are modeled estimates of expected annual loss, not predictions of what will happen in any given year.
Data-matched county comparisons
Modoc County's closest FEMA peer: Pike County, OH
Comparisons use published FEMA declaration fields plus the National Risk Index composite for Modoc County. Record similarity, not a safety rating.
Closest declaration profiles
Modoc County shows 17 FEMA declarations, led by Flood.
Similar Major-disaster share
Modoc County: 13 of 17 of its declarations are Major.
Similar modeled NRI score
Modoc County: NRI composite 39.7 (Very Low).
How these peers are chosen
Cohort: Published U.S. county equivalents outside the source state or territory. Each metric keeps six ETL candidates; three unique destinations are shown after de-duplicating across axes. Declaration-volume ranking combines count and Major-disaster share and prefers a different leading incident type; Major-share ranks the Major fraction adjusted for volume; NRI ranks the modeled composite score only.
Retained FEMA snapshot feed for Modoc County - capture-dated entries only.
Compare beyond this state
Nationwide peers by NRI score & FEMA declaration volume
Two PlainHazard-derived comparison paths for Modoc County: nearest out-of-state National Risk Index composite and nearest FEMA declaration count (floor ≥5 records). Record similarity only, not a forecast of the next hazard.
Similar NRI composite
Nearest out-of-state counties by FEMA NRI score. This county: 39.7 (Very Low).
Similar declaration volume
Nearest out-of-state counties by FEMA declaration count. This county: 17. NRI peers are excluded so the two link sets stay distinct.
Further reading for this county
Most disaster-prone counties
With 17 FEMA declarations, Modoc County sits in the high-volume declaration band - see how that count ranks against other U.S. counties.
More PlainHazard guides
- Most disaster-prone counties - U.S. counties ranked by FEMA declaration totals.
- Understanding disaster data - declarations vs storm events vs NRI scores.
- Preparing for natural disasters - household checklist (not county-specific advice).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most common disaster type in Modoc County?
The most common disaster type in Modoc County is Flood, with 7 declarations. Other disaster types include Severe Storm (5), Biological (2), Fire (1).
How does Modoc County's FEMA declaration record compare with the California average?
The typical California county has 28.5 FEMA declaration records; Modoc County has 17, or 40% fewer. Against the national county mean of 20.7, this county's total is 18% lower. The comparison is historical and says nothing about the probability of a future event.
How many major FEMA disaster declarations has Modoc County received?
Modoc County has received 13 major disaster declarations, representing 76% of all 17 disaster declarations.
Does FEMA's top risk-rated hazard match the highest Expected Annual Loss in Modoc County?
No. In Modoc County, Drought has the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively High), while Riverine Flooding leads Expected Annual Loss at about $4.5M. FEMA's risk score and dollar-loss model use different inputs, so the leaders often differ.
What was the worst year for disasters in Modoc County?
The most active year for disaster declarations in Modoc County was 1995, with 2 declarations. The county has FEMA disaster data spanning 1965 to 2023.
What is the FEMA National Risk Index score for Modoc County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, Modoc County, California has an overall risk score of 39.7 out of 100 (Very Low). The county's social vulnerability rating is Relatively High and community resilience is Relatively Low. The Expected Annual Loss (EAL) score is Very Low, representing $9.8M in annualized losses.
Which natural hazard poses the greatest risk to Modoc County?
The top hazard flagged by FEMA's NRI for Modoc County is Drought (risk rating: Relatively High). Other significant hazards include Wildfire (Relatively Moderate) and Volcanic Activity (Very Low). FEMA's modeled event frequency puts drought here at 98 modeled event-days per year, drawn from 2,800 historical events on record. The underlying methodology weighs historical event frequency against exposed assets and community vulnerability.
Data Sources & Methodology
Disaster declaration data comes from the FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 API, which includes all federally declared disasters, emergencies, and fire management assistance grants.
Storm event data is sourced from the NOAA Storm Events Database (2015-2025), which tracks significant weather events including thunderstorms, tornadoes, floods, and winter storms.
This data is provided for informational purposes only. FEMA disaster declarations represent federal response actions and may not capture all local emergencies or weather events.
FEMA OpenFEMA declarations + NRI for Modoc County · vintage 2026-08-25 · Methodology · California profile · Verify with FEMA OpenFEMA · Verify with NOAA Storm Events