FEMA Records
24
Above median
Arkansas · FEMA + NOAA + National Risk Index
Polk County, AR
24 FEMA disaster declarations (1968-2026), with a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Low. Most common hazard: Severe Storm.
- 24
- FEMA declarations
- 16
- Major disasters
- 46
- NRI risk · Relatively Low
- Severe Storm
- Top hazard
The verdict
Polk County has a nationally busy FEMA history: 24 declarations, more than 66% of counties in this registry. But the state comparison tempers that reading: the total is 1% below the Arkansas county mean. FEMA's separate National Risk Index places the county safer than 46%; that score models loss and vulnerability rather than counting declarations.
- Safer than 46%
- of U.S. counties for FEMA National Risk Index score
- Relatively Low
- FEMA National Risk Index rating
- 24
- FEMA declarations vs 21 national county avg
- 23
- NFIP flood insurance claims filed
FEMA's National Risk Index and its declaration registry are separate measures. This county's registry includes Major Disaster (DR) and Emergency (EM) records; an EM authorizes a narrower set of federal assistance than a DR.
How does Polk County compare?
Polk County vs. all counties in this dataset
FEMA disaster declarations, all-time
24 Top 34% higher than 66% of 3,266 counties
Each bar is a band; taller bars hold more counties. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count, share, and where it sits relative to this entry.
Source FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 · 2026-08-03
Polk County's FEMA Risk Index score
FEMA National Risk Index composite score vs. the Arkansas county average
Which hazard drives modeled loss here?
FEMA's modeled annual dollar loss for Polk County is led by Riverine Flooding (about $4.9M Expected Annual Loss, Historical Loss Ratio Relatively Moderate), while Ice Storm carries the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively High). EAL and risk score use different inputs; they need not agree.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025 release) - Expected Annual Loss vs composite risk rating by hazard.
What does Polk County's hazard record show?
FEMA National Risk Index
FEMA's data shows an elevated National Risk Index composite of 46.1/100 for this county (Relatively Low rating). Expected Annual Loss comes in at Very Low (roughly $9.8M in annualized losses). Social vulnerability (Very High) and community resilience (Very Low) both factor into how that raw exposure plays out on the ground. Of the 18 hazards FEMA models, Ice Storm stands out as the sharpest exposure here, rated Relatively High. FEMA's modeled frequency puts that hazard at roughly once every 1 years here, based on 61 historical events on record.
Declaration frequency
Nationally, Polk County's 24 FEMA records form a high-volume history; within Arkansas, however, the count is 1% below the county mean. 16 entries carry the Major Disaster classification. The largest incident group is Severe Storm, appearing 8 times. The full 58-year record averages 0.4 declarations annually. A DR label alone does not say whether Individual Assistance, Public Assistance, or both followed.
Reading the federal records together
This county has a small entry in FEMA's NFIP paid-claims table: 23 claims and $191.8K paid in total. PlainHazard calls 1-49 claims a light registry record, a label for this dataset rather than a finding that flood exposure is low. A short claims history can also reflect insurance take-up, the period covered, or losses that were never insured.
Start with the state benchmark: a Arkansas county averages 24.2 federal declaration records, while Polk County has 24. The gap is 1% below that mean. Fewer entries indicate a quieter history of recorded federal actions, not immunity from a hazard and not a prediction about what happens next.
66 /100
Historical Activity Index
High historical activity
Polk County, AR · PlainHazard-derived composite from federal records
This 0–100 index is an explicit PlainHazard composite from FEMA declaration history only on the county surface (this DB has no county-level NOAA damage row) . It is not FEMA's National Risk Index, not a forecast, and not a safety, insurance, or preparedness rating. Open the calculator · Methodology
FEMA Declarations (1953–present) High
17/30
24 OpenFEMA declarations, full ingest window (1.2x national county average)
County Disaster Density Moderate
12/25
24 declarations (1.0x state county average of 24)
Major Disaster Share High
17/25
16 of 24 declarations are major disasters (67%)
Hazard Diversity Very High
20/20
8 different disaster types declared in Polk County
Historical Declaration Activity
Activity Band
High
vs. Arkansas Avg
-1%
State avg: 24.2
vs. National Avg
+16%
National avg: 20.7
Avg Per Year
0.4
Over 58 years
FEMA NRI 8-hazard radar - Polk County
How to read this radar
Each axis: NRI risk rating (Very Low-Very High) on a 0-100 scale. Rounder = broad exposure; spiky = one or two hazards dominate.
Major Disaster share
67%
Major-heavy
NRI risk score
46
Relatively Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index FEMA National Risk Index Per-county per-hazard ratings, December 2025 release
How often does each hazard strike Polk County?
FEMA's National Risk Index models a historical event count and an annualized frequency for each hazard type. Most hazards are expressed as modeled occurrences per year; FEMA expresses drought and heat-wave frequency as event-days per year. These modeled frequencies are not forecasts.
| Hazard | NRI Risk Rating | Recurrence |
|---|---|---|
| Ice Storm | Relatively High | roughly once every 1 years |
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | roughly once every 263 years |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | an average of 5.2 times per year |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | an average of 1.4 times per year |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 15 modeled event-days per year |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | an average of 5.5 times per year |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | roughly once every 2 years |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | an average of 65 times per year |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | an average of 3.9 times per year |
| Earthquake | Very Low | roughly once every 624 years |
| Riverine Flooding | Relatively Low | an average of 1.8 times per year |
| Hurricane | Very Low | roughly once every 138 years |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | an average of 1.1 times per year |
| Drought | No Rating | 20 modeled event-days per year |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index FEMA National Risk Index Modeled annualized frequency; drought and heat wave use event-days/year, December 2025 release
Disaster Types
Severe Storm 8
Severe Ice Storm 4
Tornado 3
Flood 3
Hurricane 2
Biological 2
Winter Storm 1
Drought 1
What Severe Storm declarations mean here
Severe Storm is the most frequent declaration type on Polk County's record, 33% of its declarations. In FEMA's vocabulary this covers convective weather: thunderstorm straight-line winds, large hail, and the multi-day outbreaks that often carry embedded tornadoes. Activity is heaviest in spring and summer, though the season varies by region.
These events behave differently from a hurricane on paper. Damage tends to be distributed along a storm track rather than concentrated on a coastline, and a declaration typically follows an outbreak that crossed several counties over a few days, not a single point of impact. Because the qualifying threshold is the cost of uninsured public and individual losses rather than storm intensity, two similar storms can produce a declaration in one year and none in another.
Declaration counts describe past federal action. They are a record of what was declared, not a forecast of future hazard probability.
Declaration Types
What DR / EM / FM mean
FEMA categorizes declarations as Major Disasters (DR), Emergencies (EM), or Fire Management Assistance (FM).
Major Disaster - 16 66.7%
of all 24 declarations
Emergency - 8 33.3%
of all 24 declarations
FEMA Declarations Timeline
| Year | Declarations | |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | |
| 2025 | 1 | |
| 2020 | 3 | |
| 2016 | 1 | |
| 2015 | 1 | |
| 2014 | 1 | |
| 2013 | 1 | |
| 2011 | 1 | |
| 2009 | 3 | |
| 2005 | 1 | |
| 2001 | 3 | |
| 1991 | 1 | |
| 1990 | 1 | |
| 1983 | 1 | |
| 1979 | 1 | |
Show 3 earlier declaration years
| 1977 | 1 | |
| 1972 | 1 | |
| 1968 | 1 | |
Disaster Declarations
How the 24 FEMA declarations break into federal action codes (DR / EM / FM). Same DISTINCT grain as the table below.
Download these 24 declarations as CSV . FEMA source data is public domain; our derived presentation is CC0.
| DR# | Title | Type | Incident | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3636 | SEVERE WINTER STORM | EM | Winter Storm | 2026-01-24 |
| 3627 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, AND FLOODING | EM | Severe Storm | 2025-04-05 |
| 3541 | HURRICANE LAURA | EM | Hurricane | 2020-08-27 |
| 4518 | COVID-19 PANDEMIC | DR | Biological | 2020-04-03 |
| 3461 | COVID-19 | EM | Biological | 2020-03-13 |
| 4254 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2016-02-05 |
| 4226 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2015-06-26 |
| 4160 | SEVERE WINTER STORM | DR | Severe Ice Storm | 2014-01-06 |
| 4124 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2013-06-25 |
| 1975 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2011-05-02 |
| 1845 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2009-06-16 |
| 1834 | SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADOES | DR | Tornado | 2009-04-27 |
| 3301 | SEVERE WINTER STORM | EM | Severe Ice Storm | 2009-01-28 |
| 3215 | HURRICANE KATRINA EVACUATION | EM | Hurricane | 2005-09-02 |
| 1363 | SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2001-03-13 |
| 1354 | SEVERE WINTER ICE STORM | DR | Severe Ice Storm | 2000-12-29 |
| 3159 | SEVERE WINTER ICE STORM | EM | Severe Ice Storm | 2000-12-28 |
| 907 | SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1991-05-30 |
| 865 | SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1990-05-15 |
| 673 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES & FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 1982-12-13 |
Show 4 earlier declaration records
| DR# | Title | Type | Incident | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 574 | TORNADO | DR | Tornado | 1979-04-11 |
| 3019 | DROUGHT | EM | Drought | 1976-12-03 |
| 321 | SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1972-01-27 |
| 239 | TORNADOES, SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING | DR | Tornado | 1968-05-29 |
Storm Events in Arkansas
Statewide NOAA context only. PlainHazard does not currently attribute these state totals to Polk County.
| Storm Type | Events | Fatalities | Injuries | Property Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunderstorm Wind | 3,657 | 10 | 23 | $60.9M |
| Hail | 2,230 | 0 | 0 | $7.7M |
| Flash Flood | 1,517 | 12 | 3 | $15.9M |
| Heat | 1,222 | 2 | 325 | $0 |
| Flood | 1,152 | 9 | 0 | $40.2M |
Source: NOAA Storm Events Database NOAA Storm Events Database State-level aggregated data, 2015-2025
NFIP Flood Insurance Claims
Total Claims
23
Total Paid
$191.8K
Avg Per Claim
$8.3K
Source: FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA Claims Data FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA Claims Data
FEMA National Risk Index
Overall Risk
Relatively Low
Score: 46.1/100
Expected Annual Loss
Very Low
$9.8M/year
Social Vulnerability
Very High
Community Resilience
Very Low
Hazard Risk Breakdown
Ice Storm Relatively High
Wildfire Relatively Low
Hail Relatively Moderate
Landslide Relatively Low
Heat Wave Relatively Low
Winter Weather Relatively Moderate
Tornado Relatively Low
Lightning Relatively Moderate
Strong Wind Relatively Moderate
Earthquake Very Low
Riverine Flooding Relatively Low
Hurricane Very Low
Cold Wave Relatively Low
Drought No Rating
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) Ratings reflect relative scores among all US counties. Data: hazards.fema.gov/nri
The model's sharpest exposure here: Ice Storm
Ice storms load power lines and tree limbs with accumulating freezing rain until they fail. The characteristic cost is infrastructure and multi-day power loss across a wide area rather than structural damage to buildings, which is why their consequences often outlast the weather that caused them.
Worth noting for Polk County: the model and the federal record do NOT point at the same hazard. Ice Storm carries the highest modeled rating (Relatively High), while the county's declaration history is led by Severe Storm. That is not a contradiction, the two measure genuinely different things. Declarations record federal ACTION, which requires damage costly enough to exceed state and local capacity; the Risk Index models EXPECTED annual loss across all 18 hazards whether or not any declaration ever followed. A hazard can be the county's largest modeled exposure and never once have driven a declaration.
National Risk Index ratings are modeled estimates of expected annual loss, not predictions of what will happen in any given year.
Data-matched county comparisons
Polk County's closest FEMA peer: Franklin County, MO
Comparisons use published FEMA declaration fields plus the National Risk Index composite for Polk County. Record similarity, not a safety rating.
Closest declaration profiles
Polk County shows 24 FEMA declarations, led by Severe Storm.
Similar Major-disaster share
Polk County: 16 of 24 of its declarations are Major.
Similar modeled NRI score
Polk County: NRI composite 46.1 (Relatively Low).
How these peers are chosen
Cohort: Published U.S. county equivalents outside the source state or territory. Each metric keeps six ETL candidates; three unique destinations are shown after de-duplicating across axes. Declaration-volume ranking combines count and Major-disaster share and prefers a different leading incident type; Major-share ranks the Major fraction adjusted for volume; NRI ranks the modeled composite score only.
Retained FEMA snapshot feed for Polk County - capture-dated entries only.
Further reading for this county
Most disaster-prone counties
With 24 FEMA declarations, Polk County sits in the high-volume declaration band - see how that count ranks against other U.S. counties.
More PlainHazard guides
- Most disaster-prone counties - U.S. counties ranked by FEMA declaration totals.
- Understanding disaster data - declarations vs storm events vs NRI scores.
- Preparing for natural disasters - household checklist (not county-specific advice).
Related
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most common disaster type in Polk County?
The most common disaster type in Polk County is Severe Storm, with 8 declarations. Other disaster types include Severe Ice Storm (4), Tornado (3), Flood (3).
How does Polk County's FEMA declaration record compare with the Arkansas average?
The typical Arkansas county has 24.2 FEMA declaration records; Polk County has 24, or 1% fewer. Against the national county mean of 20.7, this county's total is 16% higher. The comparison is historical and says nothing about the probability of a future event.
How many major FEMA disaster declarations has Polk County received?
Polk County has received 16 major disaster declarations, representing 67% of all 24 disaster declarations.
How many flood insurance claims has Polk County filed?
Polk County has 23 National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims totaling $191.8K in payments, with an average of $8.3K per claim.
Does FEMA's top risk-rated hazard match the highest Expected Annual Loss in Polk County?
No. In Polk County, Ice Storm has the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively High), while Riverine Flooding leads Expected Annual Loss at about $4.9M. FEMA's risk score and dollar-loss model use different inputs, so the leaders often differ.
What was the worst year for disasters in Polk County?
The most active year for disaster declarations in Polk County was 2001, with 3 declarations. The county has FEMA disaster data spanning 1968 to 2026.
What is the FEMA National Risk Index score for Polk County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, Polk County, Arkansas has an overall risk score of 46.1 out of 100 (Relatively Low). On social vulnerability the county rates Very High; on community resilience, Very Low. The Expected Annual Loss (EAL) score is Very Low, representing $9.8M in annualized losses.
Which natural hazard poses the greatest risk to Polk County?
Based on FEMA NRI data, the highest-risk natural hazard in Polk County is Ice Storm (risk rating: Relatively High). Other significant hazards include Wildfire (Relatively Low) and Hail (Relatively Moderate). FEMA's modeled event frequency puts ice storm here at roughly once every 1 years, drawn from 61 historical events on record. The underlying methodology weighs historical event frequency against exposed assets and community vulnerability.
Data Sources & Methodology
Disaster declaration data comes from the FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 API, which includes all federally declared disasters, emergencies, and fire management assistance grants.
Storm event data is sourced from the NOAA Storm Events Database (2015-2025), which tracks significant weather events including thunderstorms, tornadoes, floods, and winter storms.
Flood insurance data comes from the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA claims dataset.
This data is provided for informational purposes only. FEMA disaster declarations represent federal response actions and may not capture all local emergencies or weather events.
What this means for Polk County
Against a Arkansas county mean of 24 declarations, Polk County, AR records 24, or 1% fewer. PlainHazard classifies that historical total as high activity.
- Major Disaster is the largest group (16 of 24) in a declaration history that remains below its state benchmark; frequency here is not a forecast. Arkansas overview
- Nationally the county exceeds 66% of recorded county totals, but its own Arkansas benchmark is higher. The ranking keeps those two contexts separate. Most-disaster rankings
- A short NFIP claims file cannot establish low flood exposure; the data guide explains the limits of each federal measure. Disaster-data guide
A below-average federal record is not a safety guarantee. Use National Weather Service alerts and local emergency-management notices for present conditions, not this historical comparison.
PlainHazard derives this profile from FEMA's Disaster Declarations Summaries and National Risk Index data. The declaration comparison covers 3,266 U.S. counties and county equivalents in this database, refreshed as of 2026-08-03. Read our methodology - how this data is sourced, computed, and verified.
All federal data sources used on this page
- FEMA OpenFEMA, Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 - all federally-declared disasters for this county. fema.gov/openfema/disaster-declarations
- FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) - per-county per-hazard risk ratings and expected annual loss. hazards.fema.gov/nri
- NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database - state-level storm/severe-weather event records, 2015-2025. ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents
Data sourced from official public datasets. See our methodology for details. Retrieved and formatted by PlainHazard Editorial
Verify with FEMA → · Verify with FEMA NRI → · Verify with NOAA →
Every figure on PlainHazard is rendered directly from FEMA federal disaster data, no number is typed in by an editor. See our editorial standards & corrections policy, the methodology behind these numbers, or national statistics report, the data & editorial changelog, or report a data error.