FEMA Records
9
Low volume
Illinois · FEMA + NOAA + National Risk Index
Warren County, IL
9 FEMA disaster declarations (1993-2023), with a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Very Low. Most common hazard: Snowstorm.
- 9
- FEMA declarations
- 6
- Major disasters
- 15
- NRI risk · Very Low
- Snowstorm
- Top hazard
The verdict
Start with the local benchmark for Warren County: 9 FEMA declaration records are 30% below the Illinois county mean, even though the count is higher than 8% of counties in the national registry. On FEMA's distinct National Risk Index model, which combines expected loss with vulnerability and resilience, the county ranks safer than 15%.
- Safer than 15%
- of U.S. counties for FEMA National Risk Index score
- Very Low
- FEMA National Risk Index rating
- 9
- FEMA declarations vs 21 national county avg
- 26
- NFIP flood insurance claims filed
FEMA's National Risk Index and its declaration registry are separate measures. This county's registry includes Major Disaster (DR) and Emergency (EM) records; an EM authorizes a narrower set of federal assistance than a DR.
FEMA OpenFEMA declaration desk
County FIPS 17187 · Warren County 9 declarations · rank 3004/3,266
DECL-LIGHT · MAJOR-MID · RANK-LOWER · PHOTO-FINISH · NRI-LOW · ACT-MODERATE · TYPE-LEAD · VS-ST-BELOW
- DECL-LIGHT 9
- MAJOR-MID 67%
- RANK-LOWER #3,004
- PHOTO-FINISH Fulton
- NRI-LOW Very Low
- ACT-MODERATE Moderate
- TYPE-LEAD Snowstorm
- VS-ST-BELOW -30%
Nearest declaration peer: Fulton, OH (0 declaration gap)
FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 filing stamps for this county register. Read with this county → · Illinois state profile
Warren County among counties with fewer federal records
FEMA declaration records among Warren County and nearest peers by total count
- Los Angeles · largest
Los Angeles · largest
88 declarations
- Fulton · near 9
Fulton · near
9 declarations
- Gallatin · near 9
Gallatin · near
9 declarations
- Hillsdale · near 9
Hillsdale · near
9 declarations
- Warren · this county 9
Warren · this county
9 declarations
- Ujelang · smallest 1
Ujelang · smallest
1 declarations
What this shows Warren County carries 9 FEMA declaration records, ranked 3004 of 3,266 counties in this registry.
Warren County versus quieter counties in this dataset
Warren County among lower-declaration counties nationally
FEMA disaster declarations, all-time · Warren County
9 8th percentile higher than 8% of 3,266 counties
Each bar is a band; taller bars hold more counties. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count, share, and where it sits relative to this entry.
Source FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 · 2026-08-25
Warren County's FEMA Risk Index score
Which hazard drives modeled loss here?
FEMA's modeled annual dollar loss for Warren County is led by Riverine Flooding (about $1.7M Expected Annual Loss, Historical Loss Ratio Relatively Low), while Drought carries the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively Moderate). EAL and risk score use different inputs; they need not agree.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025 release) - Expected Annual Loss vs composite risk rating by hazard.
What does Warren County's hazard record show?
FEMA National Risk Index
This county's FEMA National Risk Index composite lands at 15.5/100 (Very Low), a modest reading against the rest of the country. Expected Annual Loss is rated Very Low (roughly $7.0M in annualized losses), tempered or compounded by a Relatively Low social-vulnerability score and Very High community-resilience score. Among the 18 modeled hazards, Drought carries the county's highest rating, a mid-range Relatively Moderate. FEMA's modeled frequency puts that hazard at 8.9 modeled event-days per year here, based on 245 historical events on record.
Reading the federal records together
This county has a small entry in FEMA's NFIP paid-claims table: 26 claims and $193.3K paid in total. PlainHazard calls 1-49 claims a light registry record, a label for this dataset rather than a finding that flood exposure is low. A short claims history can also reflect insurance take-up, the period covered, or losses that were never insured.
Start with the state benchmark: a Illinois county averages 12.9 federal declaration records, while Warren County has 9. The gap is 30% below that mean. Fewer entries indicate a quieter history of recorded federal actions, not immunity from a hazard and not a prediction about what happens next.
46 /100
Historical Activity Index
Moderate historical activity
Warren County, IL · PlainHazard-derived composite from federal records
This 0–100 index is an explicit PlainHazard composite from FEMA declaration history only on the county surface (this DB has no county-level NOAA damage row) . It is not FEMA's National Risk Index, not a forecast, and not a safety, insurance, or preparedness rating. Open the calculator · Methodology
FEMA Declarations (1953–present) Low
7/30
9 OpenFEMA declarations, full ingest window (0.4x national county average)
County Disaster Density Moderate
9/25
9 declarations (0.7x state county average of 13)
Major Disaster Share High
17/25
6 of 9 declarations are major disasters (67%)
Hazard Diversity High
13/20
5 different disaster types declared in Warren County
FEMA NRI 8-hazard radar - Warren County
How to read this radar
Each axis: NRI risk rating (Very Low-Very High) on a 0-100 scale. Rounder = broad exposure; spiky = one or two hazards dominate.
Major Disaster share
67%
Major-heavy
NRI risk score
15
Very Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Per-county per-hazard ratings, December 2025 release
How often does each hazard strike Warren County?
FEMA's National Risk Index models a historical event count and an annualized frequency for each hazard type. Most hazards are expressed as modeled occurrences per year; FEMA expresses drought and heat-wave frequency as event-days per year. These modeled frequencies are not forecasts.
| Hazard | NRI Risk Rating | Recurrence |
|---|---|---|
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 8.9 modeled event-days per year |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 8.8 modeled event-days per year |
| Hail | Relatively Low | an average of 4 times per year |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | roughly once every 1 years |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | an average of 4.6 times per year |
| Landslide | Very Low | roughly once every 7 years |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | an average of 5.8 times per year |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | an average of 46 times per year |
| Earthquake | Very Low | roughly once every 715 years |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | an average of 13 times per year |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | roughly once every 2 years |
| Hurricane | Very Low | roughly once every 100 years |
| Riverine Flooding | Very Low | roughly once every 1 years |
| Wildfire | Very Low | roughly once every 13,498 years |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Modeled annualized frequency; drought and heat wave use event-days/year, December 2025 release
Disaster Types
Severe Storm 2
Biological 2
Flood 2
Snowstorm 2
Hurricane 1
What Snowstorm declarations mean here
Snowstorm is the most frequent declaration type on Warren County's record, 22% of its declarations. Snow-related declarations work on a narrower basis than most other hazards: they are generally issued to reimburse the cost of snow removal and emergency protective measures, rather than to repair destroyed property.
The qualifying test is unusual too. FEMA assesses snowfall against record levels for the affected area, so the same storm total can qualify in a county where it is historically extreme and not qualify a few hundred miles north where it is an ordinary winter. A low snowstorm declaration count is therefore not evidence of mild winters.
Declaration counts describe past federal action. They are a record of what was declared, not a forecast of future hazard probability.
Declaration Types
What DR / EM / FM mean
FEMA categorizes declarations as Major Disasters (DR), Emergencies (EM), or Fire Management Assistance (FM).
Major Disaster - 6 66.7%
of all 9 declarations
Emergency - 3 33.3%
of all 9 declarations
FEMA Declarations Timeline
| Year | Declarations | |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 1 | |
| 2020 | 2 | |
| 2013 | 1 | |
| 2011 | 1 | |
| 2007 | 1 | |
| 2005 | 1 | |
| 1999 | 1 | |
| 1993 | 1 | |
Disaster Declarations
How the 9 FEMA declarations break into federal action codes (DR / EM / FM). Same DISTINCT grain as the table below.
Download these 9 declarations as CSV . FEMA source data is public domain; our derived presentation is CC0.
| DR# | Title | Type | Incident | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4728 | SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2023-08-15 |
| 4489 | COVID-19 PANDEMIC | DR | Biological | 2020-03-26 |
| 3435 | COVID-19 | EM | Biological | 2020-03-13 |
| 4116 | SEVERE STORMS, STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, AND FLOODING | DR | Flood | 2013-05-10 |
| 1960 | SEVERE WINTER STORM AND SNOWSTORM | DR | Snowstorm | 2011-03-17 |
| 1729 | SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2007-09-25 |
| 3230 | HURRICANE KATRINA EVACUATION | EM | Hurricane | 2005-09-07 |
| 3134 | IL-WINTER STORM 1/1/99 | EM | Snowstorm | 1999-01-08 |
| 997 | SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1993-07-09 |
Storm Events in Illinois
Statewide NOAA context only. PlainHazard does not currently attribute these state totals to Warren County.
| Storm Type | Events | Fatalities | Injuries | Property Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunderstorm Wind | 7,218 | 9 | 67 | $46.0M |
| Hail | 3,195 | 0 | 0 | $27.1M |
| Winter Weather | 1,363 | 14 | 49 | $1.8M |
| Flood | 1,221 | 14 | 11 | $84.3M |
| Flash Flood | 1,133 | 11 | 3 | $1.1B |
Source: NOAA Storm Events Database State-level aggregated data, 2015-2025
NFIP Flood Insurance Claims
Total Claims
26
Total Paid
$193.3K
Avg Per Claim
$7.4K
Source: FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA Claims Data
FEMA National Risk Index
Overall Risk
Very Low
Score: 15.5/100
Expected Annual Loss
Very Low
$7.0M/year
Social Vulnerability
Relatively Low
Community Resilience
Very High
Hazard Risk Breakdown
Drought Relatively Moderate
Heat Wave Relatively Low
Hail Relatively Low
Ice Storm Relatively Low
Cold Wave Relatively Low
Landslide Very Low
Strong Wind Relatively Low
Lightning Relatively Low
Earthquake Very Low
Winter Weather Relatively Low
Tornado Relatively Low
Hurricane Very Low
Riverine Flooding Very Low
Wildfire Very Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) Ratings reflect relative scores among all US counties. Data: hazards.fema.gov/nri
The model's sharpest exposure here: Drought
Drought is the slowest of the modeled hazards and the least visible: it does its damage to agriculture, water supply and soil over seasons rather than hours, so it rarely produces the kind of single-day damage that drives a disaster declaration. FEMA scores it in event-days per year rather than discrete events for exactly that reason.
Worth noting for Warren County: the model and the federal record do NOT point at the same hazard. Drought carries the highest modeled rating (Relatively Moderate), while the county's declaration history is led by Snowstorm. That is not a contradiction, the two measure genuinely different things. Declarations record federal ACTION, which requires damage costly enough to exceed state and local capacity; the Risk Index models EXPECTED annual loss across all 18 hazards whether or not any declaration ever followed. A hazard can be the county's largest modeled exposure and never once have driven a declaration.
National Risk Index ratings are modeled estimates of expected annual loss, not predictions of what will happen in any given year.
Data-matched county comparisons
Warren County's closest FEMA peer: Grant County, KS
Comparisons use published FEMA declaration fields plus the National Risk Index composite for Warren County. Record similarity, not a safety rating.
Closest declaration profiles
Warren County shows 9 FEMA declarations, led by Snowstorm.
Similar Major-disaster share
Warren County: 6 of 9 of its declarations are Major.
Similar modeled NRI score
Warren County: NRI composite 15.5 (Very Low).
How these peers are chosen
Cohort: Published U.S. county equivalents outside the source state or territory. Each metric keeps six ETL candidates; three unique destinations are shown after de-duplicating across axes. Declaration-volume ranking combines count and Major-disaster share and prefers a different leading incident type; Major-share ranks the Major fraction adjusted for volume; NRI ranks the modeled composite score only.
Retained FEMA snapshot feed for Warren County - capture-dated entries only.
Compare beyond this state
Nationwide peers by NRI score & FEMA declaration volume
Two PlainHazard-derived comparison paths for Warren County: nearest out-of-state National Risk Index composite and nearest FEMA declaration count (floor ≥5 records). Record similarity only, not a forecast of the next hazard.
Similar NRI composite
Nearest out-of-state counties by FEMA NRI score. This county: 15.5 (Very Low).
Similar declaration volume
Nearest out-of-state counties by FEMA declaration count. This county: 9. NRI peers are excluded so the two link sets stay distinct.
Further reading for this county
Understanding disaster data
FEMA's National Risk Index flags Drought as the top modeled exposure here (Relatively Moderate); the guide explains how that model differs from declaration counts.
More PlainHazard guides
- Most disaster-prone counties - U.S. counties ranked by FEMA declaration totals.
- Understanding disaster data - declarations vs storm events vs NRI scores.
- Preparing for natural disasters - household checklist (not county-specific advice).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most common disaster type in Warren County?
The most common disaster type in Warren County is Snowstorm, with 2 declarations. Other disaster types include Severe Storm (2), Biological (2), Flood (2).
How does Warren County's FEMA declaration record compare with the Illinois average?
The typical Illinois county has 12.9 FEMA declaration records; Warren County has 9, or 30% fewer. Against the national county mean of 20.7, this county's total is 57% lower. The comparison is historical and says nothing about the probability of a future event.
How many major FEMA disaster declarations has Warren County received?
Warren County has received 6 major disaster declarations, representing 67% of all 9 disaster declarations.
How many flood insurance claims has Warren County filed?
Warren County has 26 National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims totaling $193.3K in payments, with an average of $7.4K per claim.
Does FEMA's top risk-rated hazard match the highest Expected Annual Loss in Warren County?
No. In Warren County, Drought has the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively Moderate), while Riverine Flooding leads Expected Annual Loss at about $1.7M. FEMA's risk score and dollar-loss model use different inputs, so the leaders often differ.
What was the worst year for disasters in Warren County?
The most active year for disaster declarations in Warren County was 2020, with 2 declarations. The county has FEMA disaster data spanning 1993 to 2023.
What is the FEMA National Risk Index score for Warren County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, Warren County, Illinois has an overall risk score of 15.5 out of 100 (Very Low). Social vulnerability here rates Relatively Low, while community resilience comes in at Very High. The Expected Annual Loss (EAL) score is Very Low, representing $7.0M in annualized losses.
Which natural hazard poses the greatest risk to Warren County?
Based on FEMA NRI data, the highest-risk natural hazard in Warren County as of the latest release is Drought (risk rating: Relatively Moderate). Other significant hazards include Heat Wave (Relatively Low) and Hail (Relatively Low). FEMA's modeled event frequency puts drought here at 8.9 modeled event-days per year, drawn from 245 historical events on record. FEMA derives these ratings from historical event frequency, the assets exposed, and the community's vulnerability profile.
Data Sources & Methodology
Disaster declaration data comes from the FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 API, which includes all federally declared disasters, emergencies, and fire management assistance grants.
Storm event data is sourced from the NOAA Storm Events Database (2015-2025), which tracks significant weather events including thunderstorms, tornadoes, floods, and winter storms.
Flood insurance data comes from the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA claims dataset.
This data is provided for informational purposes only. FEMA disaster declarations represent federal response actions and may not capture all local emergencies or weather events.
FEMA OpenFEMA declarations + NRI for Warren County · vintage 2026-08-25 · Methodology · Illinois profile · Verify with FEMA OpenFEMA · Verify with NOAA Storm Events