Erie County, New York: hazard risk
FEMA rates Erie County's overall risk Relatively High (score 97.7 of 100, higher than 97% of rated U.S. counties); 6 of its 16 hazards are rated Relatively High or Very High, led by cold wave, winter weather, riverine flooding. Its storm record holds 1,408 events since 1950.
FEMA's rating for each hazard
These are FEMA's county-wide model ratings and this county's storm record. They are not an assessment of any property, address or building, and not insurance advice: a property's risk depends on its own elevation, construction and location.
FEMA gives each hazard its own rating, and a rating does not follow the score from one hazard to the next: a hazard with a higher score can carry a lower rating than another. The table sorts by FEMA's rating, then by score (0 to 100, the county against every other county for that hazard).
| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected annual loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cold Wave | Very High | 99.6 | $53M |
| Winter Weather | Very High | 99.5 | $2.2M |
| Riverine Flooding | Relatively High | 99.0 | $205M |
| Tornado | Relatively High | 95.4 | $12M |
| Ice Storm | Relatively High | 93.7 | $1.3M |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 86.3 | $942K |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 95.4 | $6.2M |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | 80.4 | $1.3M |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 85.8 | $2.9M |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 71.3 | $649K |
| Coastal Flooding | Relatively Low | 44.4 | $42K |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 41.5 | $181K |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 35.8 | $42K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 62.6 | $97K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 52.0 | $1K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 24.0 | $54 |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, December 2025 release. A model of future loss, not a count of past events. FEMA's National Risk Index map.
What the record holds
| Hazard | Records | Deaths | Damage | Rank in state | Rank in U.S. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Severe thunderstorm wind | 446 | 0 | $7.0M | 32nd of 58 | 1266th of 3,080 |
| Winter storms | 314 | 56 | $337M | 22nd of 58 | 562nd of 3,077 |
| Floods | 208 | 0 | $54M | 15th of 58 | 674th of 3,080 |
| High wind and dust storms | 158 | 0 | $17M | 23rd of 58 | 366th of 3,080 |
| Hail | 131 | 0 | $4.4M | 28th of 58 | 2103rd of 3,080 |
| Extreme cold | 60 | 1 | $54K | 28th of 58 | 746th of 3,076 |
| Tornadoes | 27 | 0 | $16M | 5th of 58 | 1840th of 3,080 |
| Rip currents and high surf | 21 | 0 | $568K | 4th of 58 | 100th of 2,080 |
| Lightning | 16 | 0 | $1.5M | 21st of 58 | 521st of 3,080 |
| Heavy rain | 15 | 0 | – | 12th of 58 | 1156th of 3,080 |
| Drought | 10 | 0 | – | 35th of 58 | 2213th of 3,063 |
| Heat | 1 | 0 | – | 44th of 58 | 2367th of 3,076 |
Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, 1950 to 2026-06-30; damage in 2025 dollars. Search the record at NCEI.
The full Erie County record: every hazard by year and month, the deadliest events and FEMA's declarations.