Fairfax County, Virginia: hazard risk
FEMA rates Fairfax County's overall risk Relatively High (score 94.7 of 100, higher than 94% of rated U.S. counties); 6 of its 15 hazards are rated Relatively High or Very High, led by winter weather, lightning, heat wave. Its storm record holds 2,129 events since 1950.
FEMA's rating for each hazard
These are FEMA's county-wide model ratings and this county's storm record. They are not an assessment of any property, address or building, and not insurance advice: a property's risk depends on its own elevation, construction and location.
FEMA gives each hazard its own rating, and a rating does not follow the score from one hazard to the next: a hazard with a higher score can carry a lower rating than another. The table sorts by FEMA's rating, then by score (0 to 100, the county against every other county for that hazard).
| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected annual loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winter Weather | Very High | 98.2 | $1.8M |
| Lightning | Very High | 97.9 | $3.9M |
| Heat Wave | Relatively High | 97.1 | $13M |
| Riverine Flooding | Relatively High | 97.0 | $155M |
| Strong Wind | Relatively High | 95.5 | $4.3M |
| Hail | Relatively High | 95.1 | $4.0M |
| Hurricane | Relatively Moderate | 93.0 | $18M |
| Earthquake | Relatively Moderate | 92.8 | $11M |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | 83.0 | $5.9M |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Moderate | 81.5 | $617K |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 73.0 | $10K |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 54.5 | $1.9M |
| Coastal Flooding | Relatively Low | 52.6 | $230K |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 33.3 | $47K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 34.0 | $24K |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, December 2025 release. A model of future loss, not a count of past events. FEMA's National Risk Index map.
What the record holds
| Hazard | Records | Deaths | Damage | Rank in state | Rank in U.S. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Severe thunderstorm wind | 735 | 5 | $18M | 2nd of 96 | 22nd of 3,080 |
| Floods | 547 | 2 | $23M | 1st of 96 | 30th of 3,080 |
| Winter storms | 243 | 4 | $1.3M | 14th of 96 | 147th of 3,077 |
| Hail | 182 | 0 | $27M | 2nd of 96 | 205th of 3,080 |
| Heat | 101 | 1 | – | 7th of 96 | 148th of 3,076 |
| High wind and dust storms | 71 | 0 | $9.5M | 15th of 96 | 306th of 3,080 |
| Extreme cold | 65 | 1 | – | 14th of 96 | 117th of 3,076 |
| Heavy rain | 24 | 0 | $11K | 37th of 96 | 161st of 3,080 |
| Tornadoes | 22 | 1 | $191M | 7th of 96 | 494th of 3,080 |
| Drought | 19 | 0 | – | 41st of 96 | 1470th of 3,063 |
| Lightning | 15 | 0 | $4.1M | 6th of 96 | 161st of 3,080 |
| Hurricanes and tropical storms | 14 | 1 | $37M | 14th of 96 | 347th of 1,849 |
Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, 1950 to 2026-06-30; damage in 2025 dollars. Search the record at NCEI.
The full Fairfax County record: every hazard by year and month, the deadliest events and FEMA's declarations.