Prince William County, Virginia: hazard risk
FEMA rates Prince William County's overall risk Relatively Moderate (score 83.2 of 100, higher than 83% of rated U.S. counties); 3 of its 15 hazards are rated Relatively High or Very High, led by lightning, winter weather, strong wind. Its storm record holds 1,183 events since 1950.
FEMA's rating for each hazard
These are FEMA's county-wide model ratings and this county's storm record. They are not an assessment of any property, address or building, and not insurance advice: a property's risk depends on its own elevation, construction and location.
FEMA gives each hazard its own rating, and a rating does not follow the score from one hazard to the next: a hazard with a higher score can carry a lower rating than another. The table sorts by FEMA's rating, then by score (0 to 100, the county against every other county for that hazard).
| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected annual loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lightning | Relatively High | 91.7 | $1.8M |
| Winter Weather | Relatively High | 91.0 | $597K |
| Strong Wind | Relatively High | 88.4 | $2.6M |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 93.4 | $6.3M |
| Riverine Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 88.0 | $45M |
| Hurricane | Relatively Moderate | 83.0 | $4.2M |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 76.6 | $1.0M |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 76.5 | $4.6M |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 80.9 | $2.4M |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 56.3 | $155K |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 54.3 | $274K |
| Coastal Flooding | Relatively Low | 48.8 | $110K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 57.1 | $3K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 23.7 | $404K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 18.2 | $9K |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, December 2025 release. A model of future loss, not a count of past events. FEMA's National Risk Index map.
What the record holds
| Hazard | Records | Deaths | Damage | Rank in state | Rank in U.S. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Severe thunderstorm wind | 342 | 1 | $9.9M | 6th of 96 | 87th of 3,080 |
| Floods | 272 | 0 | $853K | 4th of 96 | 56th of 3,080 |
| Winter storms | 172 | 1 | $99K | 13th of 96 | 130th of 3,077 |
| Hail | 86 | 0 | $3.6M | 16th of 96 | 916th of 3,080 |
| Heat | 75 | 1 | – | 3rd of 96 | 72nd of 3,076 |
| Extreme cold | 56 | 0 | $138K | 10th of 96 | 76th of 3,076 |
| High wind and dust storms | 34 | 0 | $638K | 18th of 96 | 323rd of 3,080 |
| Heavy rain | 17 | 0 | $2K | 40th of 96 | 174th of 3,080 |
| Tornadoes | 15 | 1 | $9.4M | 23rd of 96 | 1395th of 3,080 |
| Drought | 12 | 0 | – | 25th of 96 | 1213th of 3,063 |
| Lightning | 8 | 0 | $215K | 15th of 96 | 297th of 3,080 |
| Hurricanes and tropical storms | 6 | 0 | $24M | 15th of 96 | 348th of 1,849 |
Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, 1950 to 2026-06-30; damage in 2025 dollars. Search the record at NCEI.
The full Prince William County record: every hazard by year and month, the deadliest events and FEMA's declarations.