FEMA Records
15
Below median
Arkansas · FEMA + NOAA + National Risk Index
Ashley County, AR
15 FEMA disaster declarations (1973-2026), with a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Low. Most common hazard: Severe Storm.
- 15
- FEMA declarations
- 9
- Major disasters
- 54
- NRI risk · Relatively Low
- Severe Storm
- Top hazard
The verdict
Ashley County has a nationally busy FEMA history: 15 declarations, more than 23% of counties in this registry. But the state comparison tempers that reading: the total is 38% below the Arkansas county mean. FEMA's separate National Risk Index places the county in the riskiest 46%; that score models loss and vulnerability rather than counting declarations.
- Riskiest 46%
- of U.S. counties for FEMA National Risk Index score
- Relatively Low
- FEMA National Risk Index rating
- 15
- FEMA declarations vs 21 national county avg
- 61
- NFIP flood insurance claims filed
FEMA's National Risk Index and its declaration registry are separate measures. This county's registry includes Major Disaster (DR) and Emergency (EM) records; an EM authorizes a narrower set of federal assistance than a DR.
FEMA OpenFEMA declaration desk
County FIPS 05003 · Ashley County 15 declarations · rank 2399/3,266
DECL-MID · MAJOR-MID · RANK-LOWER · PHOTO-FINISH · NRI-LOW · ACT-HIGH · TYPE-LEAD · VS-ST-BELOW
- DECL-MID 15
- MAJOR-MID 60%
- RANK-LOWER #2,399
- PHOTO-FINISH Polk
- NRI-LOW 54
- ACT-HIGH High
- TYPE-LEAD Severe Storm
- VS-ST-BELOW -38%
Nearest declaration peer: Polk, OR (0 declaration gap)
FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 filing stamps for this county register. Read with this county → · Arkansas state profile
Ashley County among counties with fewer federal records
FEMA declaration records among Ashley County and nearest peers by total count
- Los Angeles · largest
Los Angeles · largest
88 declarations
- Ashley · this county 15
Ashley · this county
15 declarations
- Flathead · near 15
Flathead · near
15 declarations
- Murray · near 15
Murray · near
15 declarations
- Polk · near 15
Polk · near
15 declarations
- Ujelang · smallest 1
Ujelang · smallest
1 declarations
What this shows Ashley County carries 15 FEMA declaration records, ranked 2399 of 3,266 counties in this registry.
Ashley County versus quieter counties in this dataset
Ashley County among lower-declaration counties nationally
FEMA disaster declarations, all-time · Ashley County
15 23rd percentile higher than 23% of 3,266 counties
Each bar is a band; taller bars hold more counties. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count, share, and where it sits relative to this entry.
Source FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 · 2026-08-25
Ashley County's FEMA Risk Index score
Which hazard drives modeled loss here?
FEMA's modeled annual dollar loss for Ashley County is led by Riverine Flooding (about $4.9M Expected Annual Loss, Historical Loss Ratio Relatively Low), while Ice Storm carries the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively High). EAL and risk score use different inputs; they need not agree.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025 release) - Expected Annual Loss vs composite risk rating by hazard.
What does Ashley County's hazard record show?
Reading the federal records together
The NFIP claims register shows a middle-volume loss record here: 61 paid claims, totaling $824.8K. PlainHazard uses 50-499 claims for this descriptive band; FEMA does not publish it as a safety or coverage category. The $13.5K average describes payments on recorded claims only, leaving uninsured damage and properties without a claim outside the measure.
Start with the state benchmark: a Arkansas county averages 24.2 federal declaration records, while Ashley County has 15. The gap is 38% below that mean. Fewer entries indicate a quieter history of recorded federal actions, not immunity from a hazard and not a prediction about what happens next.
FEMA National Risk Index
This county carries a high composite score on FEMA's National Risk Index, 53.9/100, rated Relatively Low. Its Expected Annual Loss rating is Very Low (roughly $11.7M in annualized losses), and a Very High social-vulnerability profile combined with Very Low community resilience shapes how much of that raw exposure becomes realized harm. Of the 18 hazards FEMA models, Ice Storm stands out as the sharpest exposure here, rated Relatively High. FEMA's modeled frequency puts that hazard at an average of 1.1 times per year here, based on 73 historical events on record.
52 /100
Historical Activity Index
High historical activity
Ashley County, AR · PlainHazard-derived composite from federal records
This 0–100 index is an explicit PlainHazard composite from FEMA declaration history only on the county surface (this DB has no county-level NOAA damage row) . It is not FEMA's National Risk Index, not a forecast, and not a safety, insurance, or preparedness rating. Open the calculator · Methodology
FEMA Declarations (1953–present) Moderate
11/30
15 OpenFEMA declarations, full ingest window (0.7x national county average)
County Disaster Density Moderate
8/25
15 declarations (0.6x state county average of 24)
Major Disaster Share High
15/25
9 of 15 declarations are major disasters (60%)
Hazard Diversity Very High
18/20
7 different disaster types declared in Ashley County
FEMA NRI 8-hazard radar - Ashley County
How to read this radar
Each axis: NRI risk rating (Very Low-Very High) on a 0-100 scale. Rounder = broad exposure; spiky = one or two hazards dominate.
Major Disaster share
60%
Major-heavy
NRI risk score
54
Relatively Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Per-county per-hazard ratings, December 2025 release
How often does each hazard strike Ashley County?
FEMA's National Risk Index models a historical event count and an annualized frequency for each hazard type. Most hazards are expressed as modeled occurrences per year; FEMA expresses drought and heat-wave frequency as event-days per year. These modeled frequencies are not forecasts.
| Hazard | NRI Risk Rating | Recurrence |
|---|---|---|
| Ice Storm | Relatively High | an average of 1.1 times per year |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | roughly once every 346 years |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 18 modeled event-days per year |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 19 modeled event-days per year |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | roughly once every 1 years |
| Hail | Relatively Low | an average of 3.3 times per year |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | roughly once every 24 years |
| Riverine Flooding | Relatively Low | an average of 1.8 times per year |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | an average of 2.9 times per year |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | an average of 64 times per year |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | an average of 1.1 times per year |
| Wildfire | Very Low | roughly once every 2,636 years |
| Landslide | Very Low | roughly once every 5 years |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | an average of 3.1 times per year |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Modeled annualized frequency; drought and heat wave use event-days/year, December 2025 release
Disaster Types
Severe Storm 3
Hurricane 3
Tornado 3
Biological 2
Flood 2
Winter Storm 1
Snowstorm 1
What Severe Storm declarations mean here
Severe Storm is the most frequent declaration type on Ashley County's record, 20% of its declarations. In FEMA's vocabulary this covers convective weather: thunderstorm straight-line winds, large hail, and the multi-day outbreaks that often carry embedded tornadoes. Activity is heaviest in spring and summer, though the season varies by region.
These events behave differently from a hurricane on paper. Damage tends to be distributed along a storm track rather than concentrated on a coastline, and a declaration typically follows an outbreak that crossed several counties over a few days, not a single point of impact. Because the qualifying threshold is the cost of uninsured public and individual losses rather than storm intensity, two similar storms can produce a declaration in one year and none in another.
Declaration counts describe past federal action. They are a record of what was declared, not a forecast of future hazard probability.
Declaration Types
What DR / EM / FM mean
FEMA categorizes declarations as Major Disasters (DR), Emergencies (EM), or Fire Management Assistance (FM).
Major Disaster - 9 60.0%
of all 15 declarations
Emergency - 6 40.0%
of all 15 declarations
FEMA Declarations Timeline
| Year | Declarations | |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | |
| 2025 | 1 | |
| 2020 | 3 | |
| 2016 | 1 | |
| 2009 | 1 | |
| 2008 | 1 | |
| 2005 | 1 | |
| 2002 | 1 | |
| 1994 | 1 | |
| 1991 | 1 | |
| 1982 | 1 | |
| 1979 | 1 | |
| 1973 | 1 | |
Disaster Declarations
How the 15 FEMA declarations break into federal action codes (DR / EM / FM). Same DISTINCT grain as the table below.
Download these 15 declarations as CSV . FEMA source data is public domain; our derived presentation is CC0.
| DR# | Title | Type | Incident | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3636 | SEVERE WINTER STORM | EM | Winter Storm | 2026-01-24 |
| 3627 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, AND FLOODING | EM | Severe Storm | 2025-04-05 |
| 3541 | HURRICANE LAURA | EM | Hurricane | 2020-08-27 |
| 4518 | COVID-19 PANDEMIC | DR | Biological | 2020-04-03 |
| 3461 | COVID-19 | EM | Biological | 2020-03-13 |
| 4270 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2016-05-06 |
| 1834 | SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADOES | DR | Tornado | 2009-04-27 |
| 1793 | SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE GUSTAV | DR | Hurricane | 2008-09-18 |
| 3215 | HURRICANE KATRINA EVACUATION | EM | Hurricane | 2005-09-02 |
| 1400 | SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2002-01-24 |
| 1011 | SEVERE WINTER ICE STORM | DR | Snowstorm | 1994-02-28 |
| 907 | SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1991-05-30 |
| 3085 | SEVERE STORMS & TORNADOES | EM | Tornado | 1982-04-23 |
| 574 | TORNADO | DR | Tornado | 1979-04-11 |
| 375 | SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1973-04-27 |
Storm Events in Arkansas
Statewide NOAA context only. PlainHazard does not currently attribute these state totals to Ashley County.
| Storm Type | Events | Fatalities | Injuries | Property Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunderstorm Wind | 3,657 | 10 | 23 | $60.9M |
| Hail | 2,230 | 0 | 0 | $7.7M |
| Flash Flood | 1,517 | 12 | 3 | $15.9M |
| Heat | 1,222 | 2 | 325 | $0 |
| Flood | 1,152 | 9 | 0 | $40.2M |
Source: NOAA Storm Events Database State-level aggregated data, 2015-2025
NFIP Flood Insurance Claims
Total Claims
61
Total Paid
$824.8K
Avg Per Claim
$13.5K
Source: FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA Claims Data
FEMA National Risk Index
Overall Risk
Relatively Low
Score: 53.9/100
Expected Annual Loss
Very Low
$11.7M/year
Social Vulnerability
Very High
Community Resilience
Very Low
Hazard Risk Breakdown
Ice Storm Relatively High
Earthquake Relatively Low
Drought Relatively Moderate
Heat Wave Relatively Low
Tornado Relatively Moderate
Hail Relatively Low
Hurricane Relatively Low
Riverine Flooding Relatively Low
Strong Wind Relatively Low
Lightning Relatively Low
Cold Wave Relatively Low
Wildfire Very Low
Landslide Very Low
Winter Weather Very Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) Ratings reflect relative scores among all US counties. Data: hazards.fema.gov/nri
The model's sharpest exposure here: Ice Storm
Ice storms load power lines and tree limbs with accumulating freezing rain until they fail. The characteristic cost is infrastructure and multi-day power loss across a wide area rather than structural damage to buildings, which is why their consequences often outlast the weather that caused them.
Worth noting for Ashley County: the model and the federal record do NOT point at the same hazard. Ice Storm carries the highest modeled rating (Relatively High), while the county's declaration history is led by Severe Storm. That is not a contradiction, the two measure genuinely different things. Declarations record federal ACTION, which requires damage costly enough to exceed state and local capacity; the Risk Index models EXPECTED annual loss across all 18 hazards whether or not any declaration ever followed. A hazard can be the county's largest modeled exposure and never once have driven a declaration.
National Risk Index ratings are modeled estimates of expected annual loss, not predictions of what will happen in any given year.
Data-matched county comparisons
Ashley County's closest FEMA peer: Waynesboro (city), VA
Comparisons use published FEMA declaration fields plus the National Risk Index composite for Ashley County. Record similarity, not a safety rating.
Closest declaration profiles
Ashley County shows 15 FEMA declarations, led by Severe Storm.
Similar Major-disaster share
Ashley County: 9 of 15 of its declarations are Major.
Similar modeled NRI score
Ashley County: NRI composite 53.9 (Relatively Low).
How these peers are chosen
Cohort: Published U.S. county equivalents outside the source state or territory. Each metric keeps six ETL candidates; three unique destinations are shown after de-duplicating across axes. Declaration-volume ranking combines count and Major-disaster share and prefers a different leading incident type; Major-share ranks the Major fraction adjusted for volume; NRI ranks the modeled composite score only.
Retained FEMA snapshot feed for Ashley County - capture-dated entries only.
Compare beyond this state
Nationwide peers by NRI score & FEMA declaration volume
Two PlainHazard-derived comparison paths for Ashley County: nearest out-of-state National Risk Index composite and nearest FEMA declaration count (floor ≥5 records). Record similarity only, not a forecast of the next hazard.
Similar NRI composite
Nearest out-of-state counties by FEMA NRI score. This county: 53.9 (Relatively Low).
Similar declaration volume
Nearest out-of-state counties by FEMA declaration count. This county: 15. NRI peers are excluded so the two link sets stay distinct.
Further reading for this county
Understanding disaster data
Ashley County's NFIP claims file (61 claims) and FEMA declaration history measure different federal records - this guide separates them from modeled NRI risk.
More PlainHazard guides
- Most disaster-prone counties - U.S. counties ranked by FEMA declaration totals.
- Understanding disaster data - declarations vs storm events vs NRI scores.
- Preparing for natural disasters - household checklist (not county-specific advice).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most common disaster type in Ashley County?
The most common disaster type in Ashley County is Severe Storm, with 3 declarations. Other disaster types include Hurricane (3), Tornado (3), Biological (2).
How does Ashley County's FEMA declaration record compare with the Arkansas average?
The typical Arkansas county has 24.2 FEMA declaration records; Ashley County has 15, or 38% fewer. Against the national county mean of 20.7, this county's total is 28% lower. The comparison is historical and says nothing about the probability of a future event.
How many major FEMA disaster declarations has Ashley County received?
Ashley County has received 9 major disaster declarations, representing 60% of all 15 disaster declarations.
How many flood insurance claims has Ashley County filed?
Ashley County has 61 National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims totaling $824.8K in payments, with an average of $13.5K per claim.
Does FEMA's top risk-rated hazard match the highest Expected Annual Loss in Ashley County?
No. In Ashley County, Ice Storm has the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively High), while Riverine Flooding leads Expected Annual Loss at about $4.9M. FEMA's risk score and dollar-loss model use different inputs, so the leaders often differ.
What was the worst year for disasters in Ashley County?
The most active year for disaster declarations in Ashley County was 2020, with 3 declarations. The county has FEMA disaster data spanning 1973 to 2026.
What is the FEMA National Risk Index score for Ashley County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, Ashley County, Arkansas has an overall risk score of 53.9 out of 100 (Relatively Low). On social vulnerability the county rates Very High; on community resilience, Very Low. The Expected Annual Loss (EAL) score is Very Low, representing $11.7M in annualized losses.
Which natural hazard poses the greatest risk to Ashley County?
FEMA's NRI data points to Ashley County is Ice Storm (risk rating: Relatively High). Other significant hazards include Earthquake (Relatively Low) and Drought (Relatively Moderate). FEMA's modeled event frequency puts ice storm here at an average of 1.1 times per year, drawn from 73 historical events on record. FEMA derives these ratings from historical event frequency, the assets exposed, and the community's vulnerability profile.
Data Sources & Methodology
Disaster declaration data comes from the FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 API, which includes all federally declared disasters, emergencies, and fire management assistance grants.
Storm event data is sourced from the NOAA Storm Events Database (2015-2025), which tracks significant weather events including thunderstorms, tornadoes, floods, and winter storms.
Flood insurance data comes from the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA claims dataset.
This data is provided for informational purposes only. FEMA disaster declarations represent federal response actions and may not capture all local emergencies or weather events.
FEMA OpenFEMA declarations + NRI for Ashley County · vintage 2026-08-25 · Methodology · Arkansas profile · Verify with FEMA OpenFEMA · Verify with NOAA Storm Events