FEMA Records
9
Low volume
New Mexico · FEMA + NOAA + National Risk Index
Guadalupe County, NM
9 FEMA disaster declarations (1998-2020), with a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Very Low. Most common hazard: Severe Storm.
- 9
- FEMA declarations
- 6
- Major disasters
- 9
- NRI risk · Very Low
- Severe Storm
- Top hazard
The verdict
Start with the local benchmark for Guadalupe County: 9 FEMA declaration records are 28% below the New Mexico county mean, even though the count is higher than 8% of counties in the national registry. On FEMA's distinct National Risk Index model, which combines expected loss with vulnerability and resilience, the county ranks safer than 9%.
- Safer than 9%
- of U.S. counties for FEMA National Risk Index score
- Very Low
- FEMA National Risk Index rating
- 9
- FEMA declarations vs 21 national county avg
- 3
- severe storm declarations, the most common hazard here
FEMA's National Risk Index and its declaration registry are separate measures. This county's registry includes Major Disaster (DR) and Emergency (EM) records; an EM authorizes a narrower set of federal assistance than a DR.
How does Guadalupe County compare?
Guadalupe County vs. all counties in this dataset
FEMA disaster declarations, all-time
9 8th percentile higher than 8% of 3,266 counties
Each bar is a band; taller bars hold more counties. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count, share, and where it sits relative to this entry.
Source FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 · 2026-08-03
Guadalupe County's FEMA Risk Index score
FEMA National Risk Index composite score vs. the New Mexico county average
Which hazard drives modeled loss here?
FEMA's modeled annual dollar loss for Guadalupe County is led by Riverine Flooding (about $2.3M Expected Annual Loss, Historical Loss Ratio Very High), while Wildfire carries the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively Low). EAL and risk score use different inputs; they need not agree.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025 release) - Expected Annual Loss vs composite risk rating by hazard.
What does Guadalupe County's hazard record show?
Declaration frequency
The state comparison is the clearest context for Guadalupe County's moderate federal record. Its 9 declarations sit 28% below the New Mexico county mean, with 6 Major Disaster entries among them. 3 records concern Severe Storm, the file's most frequent incident type. Spread across 22 years, the registry rate is 0.4 per year. FEMA reports authorized programs separately from the DR, EM, and FM codes.
FEMA National Risk Index
FEMA's National Risk Index places this county in the low end of the national distribution, composite score 8.8/100 (Very Low). Expected Annual Loss is rated Very Low (roughly $2.9M in annualized losses). Two modifiers shape how that exposure becomes real-world harm here: social vulnerability (Very High) and community resilience (Very Low). Even the county's top-rated hazard, Wildfire, only reaches Relatively Low on FEMA's scale, none of the 18 modeled hazards stand out here. FEMA's modeled frequency puts that hazard at roughly once every 314 years here.
Reading the federal records together
No paid-claim row for this county appears in the NFIP county table used by PlainHazard. That absence is not evidence that flooding never occurred: the register observes claims under federal flood-insurance policies, not uninsured losses, emergency reports, or every flood outside the program. The FEMA declaration history below is therefore the available federal-action record on this page.
Start with the state benchmark: a New Mexico county averages 12.5 federal declaration records, while Guadalupe County has 9. The gap is 28% below that mean. Fewer entries indicate a quieter history of recorded federal actions, not immunity from a hazard and not a prediction about what happens next.
46 /100
Historical Activity Index
Moderate historical activity
Guadalupe County, NM · PlainHazard-derived composite from federal records
This 0–100 index is an explicit PlainHazard composite from FEMA declaration history only on the county surface (this DB has no county-level NOAA damage row) . It is not FEMA's National Risk Index, not a forecast, and not a safety, insurance, or preparedness rating. Open the calculator · Methodology
FEMA Declarations (1953–present) Low
7/30
9 OpenFEMA declarations, full ingest window (0.4x national county average)
County Disaster Density Moderate
9/25
9 declarations (0.7x state county average of 12)
Major Disaster Share High
17/25
6 of 9 declarations are major disasters (67%)
Hazard Diversity High
13/20
5 different disaster types declared in Guadalupe County
Historical Declaration Activity
Activity Band
Moderate
vs. New Mexico Avg
-28%
State avg: 12.5
vs. National Avg
-57%
National avg: 20.7
Avg Per Year
0.4
Over 22 years
FEMA NRI 8-hazard radar - Guadalupe County
How to read this radar
Each axis: NRI risk rating (Very Low-Very High) on a 0-100 scale. Rounder = broad exposure; spiky = one or two hazards dominate.
Major Disaster share
67%
Major-heavy
NRI risk score
9
Very Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Per-county per-hazard ratings, December 2025 release
How often does each hazard strike Guadalupe County?
FEMA's National Risk Index models a historical event count and an annualized frequency for each hazard type. Most hazards are expressed as modeled occurrences per year; FEMA expresses drought and heat-wave frequency as event-days per year. These modeled frequencies are not forecasts.
| Hazard | NRI Risk Rating | Recurrence |
|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | roughly once every 314 years |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | an average of 11 times per year |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 130 modeled event-days per year |
| Riverine Flooding | Very Low | roughly once every 2 years |
| Landslide | Very Low | roughly once every 2 years |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | roughly once every 10,000 years |
| Lightning | Very Low | an average of 56 times per year |
| Earthquake | Very Low | roughly once every 1,639 years |
| Hail | Very Low | an average of 1.1 times per year |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.8 modeled event-days per year |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | roughly once every 2 years |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | roughly once every 4 years |
| Tornado | Very Low | roughly once every 4 years |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | roughly once every 3 years |
| Avalanche | Very Low | roughly once every 100 years |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Modeled annualized frequency; drought and heat wave use event-days/year, December 2025 release
Disaster Types
Severe Storm 3
Biological 2
Fire 2
Flood 1
Hurricane 1
What Severe Storm declarations mean here
Severe Storm is the most frequent declaration type on Guadalupe County's record, 33% of its declarations. In FEMA's vocabulary this covers convective weather: thunderstorm straight-line winds, large hail, and the multi-day outbreaks that often carry embedded tornadoes. Activity is heaviest in spring and summer, though the season varies by region.
These events behave differently from a hurricane on paper. Damage tends to be distributed along a storm track rather than concentrated on a coastline, and a declaration typically follows an outbreak that crossed several counties over a few days, not a single point of impact. Because the qualifying threshold is the cost of uninsured public and individual losses rather than storm intensity, two similar storms can produce a declaration in one year and none in another.
Declaration counts describe past federal action. They are a record of what was declared, not a forecast of future hazard probability.
Declaration Types
What DR / EM / FM mean
FEMA categorizes declarations as Major Disasters (DR), Emergencies (EM), or Fire Management Assistance (FM).
Major Disaster - 6 66.7%
of all 9 declarations
Emergency - 3 33.3%
of all 9 declarations
FEMA Declarations Timeline
| Year | Declarations | |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2 | |
| 2015 | 1 | |
| 2014 | 1 | |
| 2006 | 1 | |
| 2005 | 1 | |
| 2000 | 2 | |
| 1998 | 1 | |
Disaster Declarations
How the 9 FEMA declarations break into federal action codes (DR / EM / FM). Same DISTINCT grain as the table below.
Download these 9 declarations as CSV . FEMA source data is public domain; our derived presentation is CC0.
| DR# | Title | Type | Incident | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4529 | COVID-19 PANDEMIC | DR | Biological | 2020-04-05 |
| 3460 | COVID-19 | EM | Biological | 2020-03-13 |
| 4197 | SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2014-10-06 |
| 4152 | SEVERE STORMS, FLOODING, AND MUDSLIDES | DR | Flood | 2013-10-29 |
| 1659 | SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2006-08-30 |
| 3229 | HURRICANE KATRINA EVACUATION | EM | Hurricane | 2005-09-07 |
| 1329 | SEVERE FOREST FIRE | DR | Fire | 2000-05-13 |
| 3154 | SEVERE FIRE THREATS | EM | Fire | 2000-05-10 |
| 1202 | SEVERE WINTER STORM | DR | Severe Storm | 1998-01-29 |
Storm Events in New Mexico
Statewide NOAA context only. PlainHazard does not currently attribute these state totals to Guadalupe County.
| Storm Type | Events | Fatalities | Injuries | Property Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drought | 3,382 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| High Wind | 2,351 | 0 | 3 | $18.9M |
| Hail | 1,669 | 1 | 24 | $17.2M |
| Heavy Snow | 986 | 6 | 72 | $2.5M |
| Thunderstorm Wind | 952 | 1 | 13 | $25.1M |
Source: NOAA Storm Events Database State-level aggregated data, 2015-2025
FEMA National Risk Index
Overall Risk
Very Low
Score: 8.8/100
Expected Annual Loss
Very Low
$2.9M/year
Social Vulnerability
Very High
Community Resilience
Very Low
Hazard Risk Breakdown
Wildfire Relatively Low
Winter Weather Relatively Low
Drought Relatively Low
Riverine Flooding Very Low
Landslide Very Low
Volcanic Activity Very Low
Lightning Very Low
Earthquake Very Low
Hail Very Low
Heat Wave Very Low
Cold Wave Very Low
Ice Storm Very Low
Tornado Very Low
Strong Wind Very Low
Avalanche Very Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) Ratings reflect relative scores among all US counties. Data: hazards.fema.gov/nri
The model's sharpest exposure here: Wildfire
Wildfire risk in the model reflects fuel, terrain, weather and how much development sits in the wildland-urban interface. It is one of the few hazards where the exposure is materially changed by land management and building choices, not only by where the county happens to be.
Worth noting for Guadalupe County: the model and the federal record do NOT point at the same hazard. Wildfire carries the highest modeled rating (Relatively Low), while the county's declaration history is led by Severe Storm. That is not a contradiction, the two measure genuinely different things. Declarations record federal ACTION, which requires damage costly enough to exceed state and local capacity; the Risk Index models EXPECTED annual loss across all 18 hazards whether or not any declaration ever followed. A hazard can be the county's largest modeled exposure and never once have driven a declaration.
National Risk Index ratings are modeled estimates of expected annual loss, not predictions of what will happen in any given year.
Data-matched county comparisons
Guadalupe County's closest FEMA peer: Union County, OR
Comparisons use published FEMA declaration fields plus the National Risk Index composite for Guadalupe County. Record similarity, not a safety rating.
Closest declaration profiles
Guadalupe County shows 9 FEMA declarations, led by Severe Storm.
Similar Major-disaster share
Guadalupe County: 6 of 9 of its declarations are Major.
Similar modeled NRI score
Guadalupe County: NRI composite 8.8 (Very Low).
How these peers are chosen
Cohort: Published U.S. county equivalents outside the source state or territory. Each metric keeps six ETL candidates; three unique destinations are shown after de-duplicating across axes. Declaration-volume ranking combines count and Major-disaster share and prefers a different leading incident type; Major-share ranks the Major fraction adjusted for volume; NRI ranks the modeled composite score only.
Retained FEMA snapshot feed for Guadalupe County - capture-dated entries only.
Further reading for this county
Understanding disaster data
FEMA's National Risk Index flags Wildfire as the top modeled exposure here (Relatively Low); the guide explains how that model differs from declaration counts.
More PlainHazard guides
- Most disaster-prone counties - U.S. counties ranked by FEMA declaration totals.
- Understanding disaster data - declarations vs storm events vs NRI scores.
- Preparing for natural disasters - household checklist (not county-specific advice).
Related
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most common disaster type in Guadalupe County?
The most common disaster type in Guadalupe County is Severe Storm, with 3 declarations. Other disaster types include Biological (2), Fire (2), Flood (1).
How does Guadalupe County's FEMA declaration record compare with the New Mexico average?
The typical New Mexico county has 12.5 FEMA declaration records; Guadalupe County has 9, or 28% fewer. Against the national county mean of 20.7, this county's total is 57% lower. The comparison is historical and says nothing about the probability of a future event.
How many major FEMA disaster declarations has Guadalupe County received?
Guadalupe County has received 6 major disaster declarations, representing 67% of all 9 disaster declarations.
Does FEMA's top risk-rated hazard match the highest Expected Annual Loss in Guadalupe County?
No. In Guadalupe County, Wildfire has the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively Low), while Riverine Flooding leads Expected Annual Loss at about $2.3M. FEMA's risk score and dollar-loss model use different inputs, so the leaders often differ.
What was the worst year for disasters in Guadalupe County?
The most active year for disaster declarations in Guadalupe County was 2000, with 2 declarations. The county has FEMA disaster data spanning 1998 to 2020.
What is the FEMA National Risk Index score for Guadalupe County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, Guadalupe County, New Mexico has an overall risk score of 8.8 out of 100 (Very Low). On social vulnerability the county rates Very High; on community resilience, Very Low. The Expected Annual Loss (EAL) score is Very Low, representing $2.9M in annualized losses.
Which natural hazard poses the greatest risk to Guadalupe County?
The top hazard flagged by FEMA's NRI for Guadalupe County is Wildfire (risk rating: Relatively Low). Other significant hazards include Winter Weather (Relatively Low) and Drought (Relatively Low). FEMA's modeled event frequency puts wildfire here at roughly once every 314 years. The underlying methodology weighs historical event frequency against exposed assets and community vulnerability.
Data Sources & Methodology
Disaster declaration data comes from the FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 API, which includes all federally declared disasters, emergencies, and fire management assistance grants.
Storm event data is sourced from the NOAA Storm Events Database (2015-2025), which tracks significant weather events including thunderstorms, tornadoes, floods, and winter storms.
This data is provided for informational purposes only. FEMA disaster declarations represent federal response actions and may not capture all local emergencies or weather events.
What this means for Guadalupe County
Against a New Mexico county mean of 12 declarations, Guadalupe County, NM records 9, or 28% fewer. PlainHazard classifies that historical total as moderate activity.
- Major Disaster is the largest group (6 of 9) in a declaration history that remains below its state benchmark; frequency here is not a forecast. New Mexico overview
- Nationally the county exceeds 8% of recorded county totals, but its own New Mexico benchmark is higher. The ranking keeps those two contexts separate. Most-disaster rankings
- With no NFIP county row, the declaration register and modeled NRI remain distinct evidence rather than substitutes for a claims history. Disaster-data guide
A below-average federal record is not a safety guarantee. Use National Weather Service alerts and local emergency-management notices for present conditions, not this historical comparison.
PlainHazard derives this profile from FEMA's Disaster Declarations Summaries and National Risk Index data. The declaration comparison covers 3,266 U.S. counties and county equivalents in this database, refreshed as of 2026-08-03. Read our methodology - how this data is sourced, computed, and verified.
All federal data sources used on this page
- FEMA OpenFEMA, Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 - all federally-declared disasters for this county. fema.gov/openfema/disaster-declarations
- FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) - per-county per-hazard risk ratings and expected annual loss. hazards.fema.gov/nri
- NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database - state-level storm/severe-weather event records, 2015-2025. ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents
Data sourced from official public datasets. See our methodology for details. Retrieved and formatted by PlainHazard Editorial
Verify with FEMA → · Verify with FEMA NRI → · Verify with NOAA →
Every figure on PlainHazard is rendered directly from FEMA federal disaster data, no number is typed in by an editor. See our editorial standards & corrections policy, the methodology behind these numbers, or national statistics report, the data & editorial changelog, or report a data error.