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Florida · FEMA + NOAA + National Risk Index

Hillsborough County, FL

47 FEMA disaster declarations (1969-2025), with a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively High. Most common hazard: Hurricane.

47
FEMA declarations
27
Major disasters
99
NRI risk · Relatively High
Hurricane
Top hazard

The verdict

Two federal records point in the busier direction for Hillsborough County. Its 47 FEMA declarations are 16% above the Florida county mean and exceed the count for 99% of the 3,266 counties in this registry. Separately, FEMA's National Risk Index places it in the riskiest 1%, based on modeled expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience.

Riskiest 1%
of U.S. counties for FEMA National Risk Index score
Relatively High
FEMA National Risk Index rating
47
FEMA declarations vs 21 national county avg
18,549
NFIP flood insurance claims filed

FEMA's National Risk Index and its declaration registry are separate measures. This county's registry includes Fire Management Assistance (FM) records, which are not presidential disaster declarations, alongside Major Disaster (DR) and Emergency (EM) records.

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FEMA OpenFEMA declaration desk

County FIPS 12057 · Hillsborough County 47 declarations · rank 37/3,266

DECL-HEAVY · MAJOR-MID · RANK-UPPER · PHOTO-FINISH · NRI-HIGH · ACT-HIGH · TYPE-LEAD · VS-ST-ABOVE

  • DECL-HEAVY 47
  • MAJOR-MID 57%
  • RANK-UPPER #37
  • PHOTO-FINISH East Baton R…
  • NRI-HIGH 99
  • ACT-HIGH High
  • TYPE-LEAD Hurricane
  • VS-ST-ABOVE +16%

Nearest declaration peer: East Baton Rouge, LA (0 declaration gap)

FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 filing stamps for this county register. Read with this county → · Florida state profile

Hillsborough County among high-volume declaration counties

FEMA declaration records among Hillsborough County and nearest peers by total count

declarations

What this shows Hillsborough County carries 47 FEMA declaration records, ranked 37 of 3,266 counties in this registry.

Source FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 As of 2026-08-25

Where Hillsborough County ranks in the national declaration registry

Hillsborough County vs. high-volume counties in this registry

FEMA disaster declarations, all-time · Hillsborough County

47 Top 1% higher than 99% of 3,266 counties

This county 0 90 all U.S. counties FEMA tracks, bucketed by value

Each bar is a band; taller bars hold more counties. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count, share, and where it sits relative to this entry.

Source FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 · 2026-08-25

Hillsborough County's FEMA Risk Index score

0/100100/100Florida avg76/10098.8/100
FEMA National Risk Index composite score vs. the Florida county average

Which hazard drives modeled loss here?

FEMA's modeled annual dollar loss for Hillsborough County is led by Hurricane (about $178.3M Expected Annual Loss, Historical Loss Ratio Relatively Moderate), while Lightning carries the highest National Risk Index rating (Very High). EAL and risk score use different inputs; they need not agree.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025 release) - Expected Annual Loss vs composite risk rating by hazard.

What does Hillsborough County's hazard record show?

Reading the federal records together

FEMA's NFIP table contains a substantial paid-claim history for this county: 18,549 claims and $1.2B in payments. PlainHazard labels 500 or more claims a heavy registry record; that is a reporting bucket, not an official FEMA risk grade. The average paid claim was $63.6K. NFIP totals exclude uninsured flood losses and do not measure how many properties currently carry a policy.

The declaration register points in the busier direction. Hillsborough County's 47 federal records stand 16% above the Florida county mean of 40.4. That comparison describes how often federal action was recorded, including any Major Disaster, Emergency, and Fire Management entries shown on this page; it does not convert the count into future probability.

FEMA National Risk Index

This county sits among the highest-risk counties nationally on FEMA's National Risk Index, a composite score of 98.8/100 (Relatively High). Expected Annual Loss is rated Relatively High (roughly $494.6M in annualized losses). Social vulnerability reads Relatively Low and community resilience Relatively Low, both critical modifiers of realized harm here. Of the 18 hazards FEMA models, Lightning stands out as the sharpest exposure here, rated Very High. FEMA's modeled frequency puts that hazard at an average of 98 times per year here, based on 1,892,661 historical events on record.

79 /100

Historical Activity Index

Very High historical activity

Hillsborough County, FL · PlainHazard-derived composite from federal records

This 0–100 index is an explicit PlainHazard composite from FEMA declaration history only on the county surface (this DB has no county-level NOAA damage row) . It is not FEMA's National Risk Index, not a forecast, and not a safety, insurance, or preparedness rating. Open the calculator · Methodology

FEMA Declarations (1953–present) Very High
30/30

47 OpenFEMA declarations, full ingest window (2.3x national county average)

County Disaster Density High
15/25

47 declarations (1.2x state county average of 40)

Major Disaster Share High
14/25

27 of 47 declarations are major disasters (57%)

Hazard Diversity Very High
20/20

9 different disaster types declared in Hillsborough County

FEMA NRI 8-hazard radar - Hillsborough County

Hillsborough County NRI risk profile 8-axis FEMA National Risk Index radar showing per-hazard scores for Earthquake 25, Flood 70, Hurricane 92, Tornado 92, Wildfire 48, Drought 48, Heat Wave 70, Winter Storm 92. The simple mean of these eight displayed scores is 67 of 100. Earthquake Flood Hurricane Tornado Wildfire Drought Heat Wave Winter Storm 67 8-hazard mean
Hillsborough County NRI risk profile FIPS 12057 · displayed-hazard mean 67/100
How to read this radar

Each axis: NRI risk rating (Very Low-Very High) on a 0-100 scale. Rounder = broad exposure; spiky = one or two hazards dominate.

FEMA Records

47

Very high volume

Major Disaster share

57%

Major-heavy

NRI risk score

99

Relatively High

Source: FEMA National Risk Index Per-county per-hazard ratings, December 2025 release

How often does each hazard strike Hillsborough County?

FEMA's National Risk Index models a historical event count and an annualized frequency for each hazard type. Most hazards are expressed as modeled occurrences per year; FEMA expresses drought and heat-wave frequency as event-days per year. These modeled frequencies are not forecasts.

Hazard NRI Risk Rating Recurrence
Lightning Very High an average of 98 times per year
Tornado Very High an average of 1.3 times per year
Cold Wave Very High an average of 4.1 times per year
Hurricane Very High roughly once every 4 years
Hail Relatively High an average of 1.8 times per year
Riverine Flooding Relatively High an average of 2.1 times per year
Heat Wave Relatively High 3.5 modeled event-days per year
Wildfire Relatively Moderate roughly once every 162 years
Coastal Flooding Relatively High an average of 3.7 times per year
Drought Relatively Moderate 17 modeled event-days per year
Strong Wind Relatively Moderate roughly once every 1 years
Earthquake Relatively Low roughly once every 3,086 years
Landslide Relatively Low roughly once every 8 years

Source: FEMA National Risk Index Modeled annualized frequency; drought and heat wave use event-days/year, December 2025 release

Disaster Types

Hurricane 21
Severe Storm 7
Tropical Storm 5
Fire 5
Freezing 4
Biological 2
Tornado 1
Flood 1
Coastal Storm 1

What Hurricane declarations mean here

Hurricane is the most frequent declaration type on Hillsborough County's federal record, 45% of its declarations. Atlantic tropical systems run on a defined season, 1 June to 30 November, with most activity concentrated between August and October; Pacific and territorial basins run on their own calendars. A single named storm routinely produces one declaration number covering a long corridor of counties at once, well inland as well as on the coast, which is why an affected county's count can jump by several in one year without several separate events having occurred.

One practical distinction matters when reading these records: a tropical declaration usually bundles wind, storm surge and inland rainfall flooding under a single incident, but the insurance behind them is split. Wind damage falls to property insurers, while flood and surge damage is covered only under a separate National Flood Insurance Program policy. That is why a county can show heavy declaration activity and a comparatively small NFIP claims record, or the reverse.

Declaration counts describe past federal action. They are a record of what was declared, not a forecast of future hazard probability.

Declaration Types

What DR / EM / FM mean

FEMA categorizes declarations as Major Disasters (DR), Emergencies (EM), or Fire Management Assistance (FM).

Major Disaster - 27 57.4%

of all 47 declarations

Emergency - 17 36.2%

of all 47 declarations

Fire Management - 3 6.4%

of all 47 declarations

FEMA Declarations Timeline

Year Declarations
2025 2
2024 4
2023 4
2022 2
2021 2
2020 2
2019 2
2017 2
2016 1
2012 1
2008 1
2005 1
2004 3
2001 2
2000 2
Show 10 earlier declaration years
1999 2
1998 3
1997 1
1993 2
1990 1
1985 2
1979 2
1977 1
1972 1
1969 1

Disaster Declarations

How the 47 FEMA declarations break into federal action codes (DR / EM / FM). Same DISTINCT grain as the table below.

Download these 47 declarations as CSV . FEMA source data is public domain; our derived presentation is CC0.

DR# Title Type Incident Date
4834 HURRICANE MILTON DR Hurricane 2024-10-11
3622 HURRICANE MILTON EM Hurricane 2024-10-07
4828 HURRICANE HELENE DR Hurricane 2024-09-28
3615 TROPICAL STORM HELENE EM Tropical Storm 2024-09-24
4806 HURRICANE DEBBY DR Tropical Storm 2024-08-10
3605 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY EM Tropical Storm 2024-08-03
4734 HURRICANE IDALIA DR Hurricane 2023-08-31
3596 TROPICAL STORM IDALIA EM Tropical Storm 2023-08-28
4680 HURRICANE NICOLE DR Hurricane 2022-12-13
3587 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE EM Tropical Storm 2022-11-08
4673 HURRICANE IAN DR Hurricane 2022-09-29
3584 TROPICAL STORM IAN EM Hurricane 2022-09-24
3561 TROPICAL STORM ELSA EM Severe Storm 2021-07-04
3551 HURRICANE ETA EM Hurricane 2020-11-11
4486 COVID-19 PANDEMIC DR Biological 2020-03-25
3432 COVID-19 EM Biological 2020-03-13
3419 HURRICANE DORIAN EM Hurricane 2019-08-30
3405 HURRICANE MICHAEL EM Hurricane 2018-10-09
4337 HURRICANE IRMA DR Hurricane 2017-09-10
3385 HURRICANE IRMA EM Hurricane 2017-09-05
Show 27 earlier declaration records
DR# Title Type Incident Date
4280 HURRICANE HERMINE DR Hurricane 2016-09-28
4068 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DR Severe Storm 2012-07-03
3288 TROPICAL STORM FAY EM Severe Storm 2008-08-21
3220 HURRICANE KATRINA EVACUATION EM Hurricane 2005-09-05
1561 HURRICANE JEANNE DR Hurricane 2004-09-26
1545 HURRICANE FRANCES DR Hurricane 2004-09-04
1539 TROPICAL STORM BONNIE AND HURRICANE CHARLEY DR Hurricane 2004-08-13
2353 FL - LAKELAND COMPLEX FIRE FM Fire 2001-03-18
1359 SEVERE FREEZE DR Freezing 2001-02-05
2300 LAKELAND DISTRICT FIRE FM Fire 2000-05-20
3150 TROPICAL STORM IRENE - FLORIDA EM Hurricane 1999-10-15
3139 FL-FIRES 04/15/99 EM Fire 1999-04-27
2259 FL-FIRES 04/13/99 FM Fire 1999-04-21
3131 HURRICANE GRORGES EM Hurricane 1998-09-25
1223 EXTREME FIRE HAZARD DR Fire 1998-06-18
1195 SEVERE STORMS, HIGH WINDS, TORNADOES, AND FLOODING DR Severe Storm 1998-01-06
1141 TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DR Severe Storm 1996-10-15
982 TORNADOES, FLOODING, HIGH WINDS & TIDES, FREEZING DR Tornado 1993-03-13
966 SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES & FLOODING DR Severe Storm 1992-10-08
851 SEVERE FREEZE DR Freezing 1990-01-15
743 HURRICANE ELENA DR Hurricane 1985-09-12
732 SEVERE FREEZE DR Freezing 1985-03-18
607 SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING DR Flood 1979-09-29
586 SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES & FLOODING DR Severe Storm 1979-05-15
526 SEVERE WINTER WEATHER DR Freezing 1977-01-31
337 TROPICAL STORM AGNES DR Coastal Storm 1972-06-23
252 HURRICANE GLADYS DR Hurricane 1968-11-07

Storm Events in Florida

Statewide NOAA context only. PlainHazard does not currently attribute these state totals to Hillsborough County.

Storm Type Events Fatalities Injuries Property Damage
Thunderstorm Wind 5,243 17 45 $24.8M
Hail 1,012 0 0 $564.6K
Heavy Rain 865 2 3 $200.0K
Flood 826 9 0 $2.0B
Tropical Storm 767 92 6 $4.9B

Source: NOAA Storm Events Database State-level aggregated data, 2015-2025

NFIP Flood Insurance Claims

Total Claims

18,549

Total Paid

$1.2B

Avg Per Claim

$63.6K

Source: FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA Claims Data

FEMA National Risk Index

Overall Risk

Relatively High

Score: 98.8/100

Expected Annual Loss

Relatively High

$494.6M/year

Social Vulnerability

Relatively Low

Community Resilience

Relatively Low

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Lightning Very High
Tornado Very High
Cold Wave Very High
Hurricane Very High
Hail Relatively High
Riverine Flooding Relatively High
Heat Wave Relatively High
Wildfire Relatively Moderate
Coastal Flooding Relatively High
Drought Relatively Moderate
Strong Wind Relatively Moderate
Earthquake Relatively Low
Landslide Relatively Low
Winter Weather No Rating

Source: FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) Ratings reflect relative scores among all US counties. Data: hazards.fema.gov/nri

The model's sharpest exposure here: Lightning

Lightning is modeled as a high-frequency, low-per-event hazard: strike counts are large, but each strike affects a very small area. Its aggregate cost accumulates through structure fires, electrical and electronic damage, and it is one of the few hazards whose risk is essentially continuous through the season rather than episodic.

Worth noting for Hillsborough County: the model and the federal record do NOT point at the same hazard. Lightning carries the highest modeled rating (Very High), while the county's declaration history is led by Hurricane. That is not a contradiction, the two measure genuinely different things. Declarations record federal ACTION, which requires damage costly enough to exceed state and local capacity; the Risk Index models EXPECTED annual loss across all 18 hazards whether or not any declaration ever followed. A hazard can be the county's largest modeled exposure and never once have driven a declaration.

National Risk Index ratings are modeled estimates of expected annual loss, not predictions of what will happen in any given year.

Data-matched county comparisons

Hillsborough County's closest FEMA peer: Creek County, OK

Comparisons use published FEMA declaration fields plus the National Risk Index composite for Hillsborough County. Record similarity, not a safety rating.

How these peers are chosen

Cohort: Published U.S. county equivalents outside the source state or territory. Each metric keeps six ETL candidates; three unique destinations are shown after de-duplicating across axes. Declaration-volume ranking combines count and Major-disaster share and prefers a different leading incident type; Major-share ranks the Major fraction adjusted for volume; NRI ranks the modeled composite score only.

Retained FEMA snapshot feed for Hillsborough County - capture-dated entries only.

Compare beyond this state

Nationwide peers by NRI score & FEMA declaration volume

Two PlainHazard-derived comparison paths for Hillsborough County: nearest out-of-state National Risk Index composite and nearest FEMA declaration count (floor ≥5 records). Record similarity only, not a forecast of the next hazard.

Further reading for this county

Understanding disaster data

Hillsborough County's NFIP claims file (18,549 claims) and FEMA declaration history measure different federal records - this guide separates them from modeled NRI risk.

More PlainHazard guides

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the most common disaster type in Hillsborough County?
The most common disaster type in Hillsborough County is Hurricane, with 21 declarations. Other disaster types include Severe Storm (7), Tropical Storm (5), Fire (5).
How does Hillsborough County's FEMA declaration record compare with the Florida average?
FEMA lists 47 declaration records for Hillsborough County. That is 16% above the Florida county mean of 40.4. Its count is also 127% above the national county mean of 20.7. A larger declaration history records more federal actions; it is not a forecast of the county's next hazard.
How many major FEMA disaster declarations has Hillsborough County received?
Hillsborough County has received 27 major disaster declarations, representing 57% of all 47 disaster declarations.
How many flood insurance claims has Hillsborough County filed?
Hillsborough County has 18,549 National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims totaling $1.2B in payments, with an average of $63.6K per claim.
Does FEMA's top risk-rated hazard match the highest Expected Annual Loss in Hillsborough County?
No. In Hillsborough County, Lightning has the highest National Risk Index rating (Very High), while Hurricane leads Expected Annual Loss at about $178.3M. FEMA's risk score and dollar-loss model use different inputs, so the leaders often differ.
What was the worst year for disasters in Hillsborough County?
The most active year for disaster declarations in Hillsborough County was 2023, with 4 declarations. The county has FEMA disaster data spanning 1969 to 2025.
What is the FEMA National Risk Index score for Hillsborough County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, Hillsborough County, Florida has an overall risk score of 98.8 out of 100 (Relatively High). On social vulnerability the county rates Relatively Low; on community resilience, Relatively Low. The Expected Annual Loss (EAL) score is Relatively High, representing $494.6M in annualized losses.
Which natural hazard poses the greatest risk to Hillsborough County?
FEMA's NRI data points to Hillsborough County as of the latest release is Lightning (risk rating: Very High). Other significant hazards include Tornado (Very High) and Cold Wave (Very High). FEMA's modeled event frequency puts lightning here at an average of 98 times per year, drawn from 1,892,661 historical events on record. FEMA derives these ratings from historical event frequency, the assets exposed, and the community's vulnerability profile.
Data Sources & Methodology

Disaster declaration data comes from the FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 API, which includes all federally declared disasters, emergencies, and fire management assistance grants.

Storm event data is sourced from the NOAA Storm Events Database (2015-2025), which tracks significant weather events including thunderstorms, tornadoes, floods, and winter storms.

Flood insurance data comes from the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA claims dataset.

This data is provided for informational purposes only. FEMA disaster declarations represent federal response actions and may not capture all local emergencies or weather events.

FEMA OpenFEMA declarations + NRI for Hillsborough County · vintage 2026-08-25 · Methodology · Florida profile · Verify with FEMA OpenFEMA · Verify with NOAA Storm Events