FEMA Records
42
Very high volume
Florida · FEMA + NOAA + National Risk Index
Polk County, FL
42 FEMA disaster declarations (1977-2025), with a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively High. Most common hazard: Hurricane.
- 42
- FEMA declarations
- 24
- Major disasters
- 97
- NRI risk · Relatively High
- Hurricane
- Top hazard
The verdict
Two federal records point in the busier direction for Polk County. Its 42 FEMA declarations are 4% above the Florida county mean and exceed the count for 97% of the 3,266 counties in this registry. Separately, FEMA's National Risk Index places it in the riskiest 3%, based on modeled expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience.
- Riskiest 3%
- of U.S. counties for FEMA National Risk Index score
- Relatively High
- FEMA National Risk Index rating
- 42
- FEMA declarations vs 21 national county avg
- 1,668
- NFIP flood insurance claims filed
FEMA's National Risk Index and its declaration registry are separate measures. This county's registry includes Fire Management Assistance (FM) records, which are not presidential disaster declarations, alongside Major Disaster (DR) and Emergency (EM) records.
How does Polk County compare?
Polk County vs. all counties in this dataset
FEMA disaster declarations, all-time
42 Top 3% higher than 97% of 3,266 counties
Each bar is a band; taller bars hold more counties. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count, share, and where it sits relative to this entry.
Source FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 · 2026-08-03
Polk County's FEMA Risk Index score
FEMA National Risk Index composite score vs. the Florida county average
Which hazard drives modeled loss here?
FEMA's modeled annual dollar loss for Polk County is led by Hurricane (about $92.3M Expected Annual Loss, Historical Loss Ratio Relatively Moderate), while Strong Wind carries the highest National Risk Index rating (Very High). EAL and risk score use different inputs; they need not agree.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025 release) - Expected Annual Loss vs composite risk rating by hazard.
What does Polk County's hazard record show?
Reading the federal records together
FEMA's NFIP table contains a substantial paid-claim history for this county: 1,668 claims and $45.8M in payments. PlainHazard labels 500 or more claims a heavy registry record; that is a reporting bucket, not an official FEMA risk grade. The average paid claim was $27.4K. NFIP totals exclude uninsured flood losses and do not measure how many properties currently carry a policy.
The declaration register points in the busier direction. Polk County's 42 federal records stand 4% above the Florida county mean of 40.4. That comparison describes how often federal action was recorded, including any Major Disaster, Emergency, and Fire Management entries shown on this page; it does not convert the count into future probability.
FEMA National Risk Index
This county sits among the highest-risk counties nationally on FEMA's National Risk Index, a composite score of 96.5/100 (Relatively High). Expected Annual Loss is rated Relatively High (roughly $212.6M in annualized losses). Social vulnerability reads Relatively Moderate and community resilience Relatively Low, both critical modifiers of realized harm here. Of the 18 hazards FEMA models, Strong Wind stands out as the sharpest exposure here, rated Very High. FEMA's modeled frequency puts that hazard at an average of 1 time per year here, based on 38 historical events on record.
Declaration frequency
The FEMA register is busy by both local and national comparisons. It contains 42 entries for Polk County, including 24 Major Disaster records, 4% above the Florida county mean. Across the 48-year span, that works out to 0.9 declarations a year. Hurricane leads the file with 18 entries. Declaration type records the federal action taken, not every assistance program approved.
75 /100
Historical Activity Index
Very High historical activity
Polk County, FL · PlainHazard-derived composite from federal records
This 0–100 index is an explicit PlainHazard composite from FEMA declaration history only on the county surface (this DB has no county-level NOAA damage row) . It is not FEMA's National Risk Index, not a forecast, and not a safety, insurance, or preparedness rating. Open the calculator · Methodology
FEMA Declarations (1953–present) Very High
30/30
42 OpenFEMA declarations, full ingest window (2.0x national county average)
County Disaster Density High
13/25
42 declarations (1.0x state county average of 40)
Major Disaster Share High
14/25
24 of 42 declarations are major disasters (57%)
Hazard Diversity Very High
18/20
7 different disaster types declared in Polk County
Historical Declaration Activity
Activity Band
High
vs. Florida Avg
+4%
State avg: 40.4
vs. National Avg
+103%
National avg: 20.7
Avg Per Year
0.9
Over 48 years
FEMA NRI 8-hazard radar - Polk County
How to read this radar
Each axis: NRI risk rating (Very Low-Very High) on a 0-100 scale. Rounder = broad exposure; spiky = one or two hazards dominate.
Major Disaster share
57%
Major-heavy
NRI risk score
97
Relatively High
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Per-county per-hazard ratings, December 2025 release
How often does each hazard strike Polk County?
FEMA's National Risk Index models a historical event count and an annualized frequency for each hazard type. Most hazards are expressed as modeled occurrences per year; FEMA expresses drought and heat-wave frequency as event-days per year. These modeled frequencies are not forecasts.
| Hazard | NRI Risk Rating | Recurrence |
|---|---|---|
| Strong Wind | Very High | an average of 1 time per year |
| Lightning | Very High | an average of 96 times per year |
| Hurricane | Very High | roughly once every 4 years |
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate | roughly once every 111 years |
| Riverine Flooding | Relatively High | an average of 1.4 times per year |
| Tornado | Relatively High | an average of 2 times per year |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 3.2 modeled event-days per year |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | an average of 4.3 times per year |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | an average of 2.2 times per year |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 15 modeled event-days per year |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | roughly once every 4 years |
| Earthquake | Very Low | roughly once every 2,793 years |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Modeled annualized frequency; drought and heat wave use event-days/year, December 2025 release
Disaster Types
Hurricane 18
Fire 7
Severe Storm 5
Freezing 5
Tropical Storm 4
Biological 2
Tornado 1
What Hurricane declarations mean here
Hurricane is the most frequent declaration type on Polk County's federal record, 43% of its declarations. Atlantic tropical systems run on a defined season, 1 June to 30 November, with most activity concentrated between August and October; Pacific and territorial basins run on their own calendars. A single named storm routinely produces one declaration number covering a long corridor of counties at once, well inland as well as on the coast, which is why an affected county's count can jump by several in one year without several separate events having occurred.
One practical distinction matters when reading these records: a tropical declaration usually bundles wind, storm surge and inland rainfall flooding under a single incident, but the insurance behind them is split. Wind damage falls to property insurers, while flood and surge damage is covered only under a separate National Flood Insurance Program policy. That is why a county can show heavy declaration activity and a comparatively small NFIP claims record, or the reverse.
Declaration counts describe past federal action. They are a record of what was declared, not a forecast of future hazard probability.
Declaration Types
What DR / EM / FM mean
FEMA categorizes declarations as Major Disasters (DR), Emergencies (EM), or Fire Management Assistance (FM).
Major Disaster - 24 57.1%
of all 42 declarations
Emergency - 13 31.0%
of all 42 declarations
Fire Management - 5 11.9%
of all 42 declarations
FEMA Declarations Timeline
| Year | Declarations | |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2 | |
| 2024 | 2 | |
| 2023 | 4 | |
| 2022 | 2 | |
| 2020 | 2 | |
| 2019 | 1 | |
| 2017 | 4 | |
| 2012 | 1 | |
| 2008 | 2 | |
| 2007 | 1 | |
| 2006 | 1 | |
| 2005 | 1 | |
| 2004 | 4 | |
| 2001 | 2 | |
| 2000 | 3 | |
Show 8 earlier declaration years
| 1999 | 2 | |
| 1998 | 2 | |
| 1993 | 1 | |
| 1990 | 1 | |
| 1985 | 1 | |
| 1984 | 1 | |
| 1979 | 1 | |
| 1977 | 1 | |
Disaster Declarations
How the 42 FEMA declarations break into federal action codes (DR / EM / FM). Same DISTINCT grain as the table below.
Download these 42 declarations as CSV . FEMA source data is public domain; our derived presentation is CC0.
| DR# | Title | Type | Incident | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4834 | HURRICANE MILTON | DR | Hurricane | 2024-10-11 |
| 3622 | HURRICANE MILTON | EM | Hurricane | 2024-10-07 |
| 4806 | HURRICANE DEBBY | DR | Tropical Storm | 2024-08-10 |
| 3605 | TROPICAL STORM DEBBY | EM | Tropical Storm | 2024-08-03 |
| 4734 | HURRICANE IDALIA | DR | Hurricane | 2023-08-31 |
| 3596 | TROPICAL STORM IDALIA | EM | Tropical Storm | 2023-08-28 |
| 4680 | HURRICANE NICOLE | DR | Hurricane | 2022-12-13 |
| 3587 | TROPICAL STORM NICOLE | EM | Tropical Storm | 2022-11-08 |
| 4673 | HURRICANE IAN | DR | Hurricane | 2022-09-29 |
| 3584 | TROPICAL STORM IAN | EM | Hurricane | 2022-09-24 |
| 4486 | COVID-19 PANDEMIC | DR | Biological | 2020-03-25 |
| 3432 | COVID-19 | EM | Biological | 2020-03-13 |
| 3419 | HURRICANE DORIAN | EM | Hurricane | 2019-08-30 |
| 4337 | HURRICANE IRMA | DR | Hurricane | 2017-09-10 |
| 3385 | HURRICANE IRMA | EM | Hurricane | 2017-09-05 |
| 5180 | INDIAN LAKE ESTATES FIRE | FM | Fire | 2017-04-22 |
| 3377 | HURRICANE MATTHEW | EM | Hurricane | 2016-10-06 |
| 4068 | TROPICAL STORM DEBBY | DR | Severe Storm | 2012-07-03 |
| 1785 | TROPICAL STORM FAY | DR | Severe Storm | 2008-08-24 |
| 3288 | TROPICAL STORM FAY | EM | Severe Storm | 2008-08-21 |
Show 22 earlier declaration records
| DR# | Title | Type | Incident | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2684 | 53 BIG PINE FIRE | FM | Fire | 2007-03-26 |
| 1609 | HURRICANE WILMA | DR | Hurricane | 2005-10-24 |
| 3220 | HURRICANE KATRINA EVACUATION | EM | Hurricane | 2005-09-05 |
| 1561 | HURRICANE JEANNE | DR | Hurricane | 2004-09-26 |
| 1551 | HURRICANE IVAN | DR | Hurricane | 2004-09-16 |
| 1545 | HURRICANE FRANCES | DR | Hurricane | 2004-09-04 |
| 1539 | TROPICAL STORM BONNIE AND HURRICANE CHARLEY | DR | Hurricane | 2004-08-13 |
| 2353 | FL - LAKELAND COMPLEX FIRE | FM | Fire | 2001-03-18 |
| 1359 | SEVERE FREEZE | DR | Freezing | 2001-02-05 |
| 2300 | LAKELAND DISTRICT FIRE | FM | Fire | 2000-05-20 |
| 1306 | FL-HURRICANE IRENE-DR-REQ | DR | Hurricane | 1999-10-20 |
| 3150 | TROPICAL STORM IRENE - FLORIDA | EM | Hurricane | 1999-10-15 |
| 3139 | FL-FIRES 04/15/99 | EM | Fire | 1999-04-27 |
| 2259 | FL-FIRES 04/13/99 | FM | Fire | 1999-04-21 |
| 1223 | EXTREME FIRE HAZARD | DR | Fire | 1998-06-18 |
| 1195 | SEVERE STORMS, HIGH WINDS, TORNADOES, AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 1998-01-06 |
| 982 | TORNADOES, FLOODING, HIGH WINDS & TIDES, FREEZING | DR | Tornado | 1993-03-13 |
| 851 | SEVERE FREEZE | DR | Freezing | 1990-01-15 |
| 732 | SEVERE FREEZE | DR | Freezing | 1985-03-18 |
| 698 | FREEZING TEMPERATURES | DR | Freezing | 1984-03-29 |
| 586 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES & FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 1979-05-15 |
| 526 | SEVERE WINTER WEATHER | DR | Freezing | 1977-01-31 |
Storm Events in Florida
Statewide NOAA context only. PlainHazard does not currently attribute these state totals to Polk County.
| Storm Type | Events | Fatalities | Injuries | Property Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunderstorm Wind | 5,243 | 17 | 45 | $24.8M |
| Hail | 1,012 | 0 | 0 | $564.6K |
| Heavy Rain | 865 | 2 | 3 | $200.0K |
| Flood | 826 | 9 | 0 | $2.0B |
| Tropical Storm | 767 | 92 | 6 | $4.9B |
Source: NOAA Storm Events Database State-level aggregated data, 2015-2025
NFIP Flood Insurance Claims
Total Claims
1,668
Total Paid
$45.8M
Avg Per Claim
$27.4K
Source: FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA Claims Data
FEMA National Risk Index
Overall Risk
Relatively High
Score: 96.5/100
Expected Annual Loss
Relatively High
$212.6M/year
Social Vulnerability
Relatively Moderate
Community Resilience
Relatively Low
Hazard Risk Breakdown
Strong Wind Very High
Lightning Very High
Hurricane Very High
Wildfire Relatively Moderate
Riverine Flooding Relatively High
Tornado Relatively High
Heat Wave Relatively Moderate
Cold Wave Relatively Moderate
Hail Relatively Moderate
Drought Relatively Moderate
Landslide Relatively Low
Earthquake Very Low
Winter Weather No Rating
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) Ratings reflect relative scores among all US counties. Data: hazards.fema.gov/nri
The model's sharpest exposure here: Strong Wind
Strong Wind covers damaging non-thunderstorm, non-tornadic wind, the kind produced by steep pressure gradients and downslope events. It is a broad, frequent, low-drama hazard: roofs, signage, power lines and high-profile vehicles, spread across a wide area rather than concentrated on a path.
Worth noting for Polk County: the model and the federal record do NOT point at the same hazard. Strong Wind carries the highest modeled rating (Very High), while the county's declaration history is led by Hurricane. That is not a contradiction, the two measure genuinely different things. Declarations record federal ACTION, which requires damage costly enough to exceed state and local capacity; the Risk Index models EXPECTED annual loss across all 18 hazards whether or not any declaration ever followed. A hazard can be the county's largest modeled exposure and never once have driven a declaration.
National Risk Index ratings are modeled estimates of expected annual loss, not predictions of what will happen in any given year.
Data-matched county comparisons
Polk County's closest FEMA peer: Orange County, CA
Comparisons use published FEMA declaration fields plus the National Risk Index composite for Polk County. Record similarity, not a safety rating.
Closest declaration profiles
Polk County shows 42 FEMA declarations, led by Hurricane.
Similar Major-disaster share
Polk County: 24 of 42 of its declarations are Major.
Similar modeled NRI score
Polk County: NRI composite 96.5 (Relatively High).
How these peers are chosen
Cohort: Published U.S. county equivalents outside the source state or territory. Each metric keeps six ETL candidates; three unique destinations are shown after de-duplicating across axes. Declaration-volume ranking combines count and Major-disaster share and prefers a different leading incident type; Major-share ranks the Major fraction adjusted for volume; NRI ranks the modeled composite score only.
Retained FEMA snapshot feed for Polk County - capture-dated entries only.
Further reading for this county
Understanding disaster data
Polk County's NFIP claims file (1,668 claims) and FEMA declaration history measure different federal records - this guide separates them from modeled NRI risk.
More PlainHazard guides
- Most disaster-prone counties - U.S. counties ranked by FEMA declaration totals.
- Understanding disaster data - declarations vs storm events vs NRI scores.
- Preparing for natural disasters - household checklist (not county-specific advice).
Related
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most common disaster type in Polk County?
The most common disaster type in Polk County is Hurricane, with 18 declarations. Other disaster types include Fire (7), Severe Storm (5), Freezing (5).
How does Polk County's FEMA declaration record compare with the Florida average?
FEMA lists 42 declaration records for Polk County. That is 4% above the Florida county mean of 40.4. Its count is also 103% above the national county mean of 20.7. A larger declaration history records more federal actions; it is not a forecast of the county's next hazard.
How many major FEMA disaster declarations has Polk County received?
Polk County has received 24 major disaster declarations, representing 57% of all 42 disaster declarations.
How many flood insurance claims has Polk County filed?
Polk County has 1,668 National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims totaling $45.8M in payments, with an average of $27.4K per claim.
Does FEMA's top risk-rated hazard match the highest Expected Annual Loss in Polk County?
No. In Polk County, Strong Wind has the highest National Risk Index rating (Very High), while Hurricane leads Expected Annual Loss at about $92.3M. FEMA's risk score and dollar-loss model use different inputs, so the leaders often differ.
What was the worst year for disasters in Polk County?
The most active year for disaster declarations in Polk County was 2004, with 4 declarations. The county has FEMA disaster data spanning 1977 to 2025.
What is the FEMA National Risk Index score for Polk County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, Polk County, Florida has an overall risk score of 96.5 out of 100 (Relatively High). Social vulnerability here rates Relatively Moderate, while community resilience comes in at Relatively Low. The Expected Annual Loss (EAL) score is Relatively High, representing $212.6M in annualized losses.
Which natural hazard poses the greatest risk to Polk County?
The top hazard flagged by FEMA's NRI for Polk County as of the latest release is Strong Wind (risk rating: Very High). Other significant hazards include Lightning (Very High) and Hurricane (Very High). FEMA's modeled event frequency puts strong wind here at an average of 1 time per year, drawn from 38 historical events on record. FEMA derives these ratings from historical event frequency, the assets exposed, and the community's vulnerability profile.
Data Sources & Methodology
Disaster declaration data comes from the FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 API, which includes all federally declared disasters, emergencies, and fire management assistance grants.
Storm event data is sourced from the NOAA Storm Events Database (2015-2025), which tracks significant weather events including thunderstorms, tornadoes, floods, and winter storms.
Flood insurance data comes from the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA claims dataset.
This data is provided for informational purposes only. FEMA disaster declarations represent federal response actions and may not capture all local emergencies or weather events.
What this means for Polk County
Polk County, FL has 42 federal declaration records, 4% more than the Florida county mean of 40; its history sits in PlainHazard's high activity band.
- Within this above-state-average declaration file, major disaster leads with 24 of 42 records; the category describes past federal action, not the next likely hazard. Florida overview
- The state benchmark and national rank point the same way: this count tops the Florida mean and the totals for 97% of 3,266 U.S. counties. Most-disaster rankings
- The large NFIP claims file and FEMA declaration history measure different federal records; the guide explains where they overlap and where they do not. Disaster-data guide
An above-average declaration count records past federal responses; it does not predict the next event. Current warnings come from the National Weather Service and local emergency officials.
PlainHazard derives this profile from FEMA's Disaster Declarations Summaries and National Risk Index data. The declaration comparison covers 3,266 U.S. counties and county equivalents in this database, refreshed as of 2026-08-03. Read our methodology - how this data is sourced, computed, and verified.
All federal data sources used on this page
- FEMA OpenFEMA, Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 - all federally-declared disasters for this county. fema.gov/openfema/disaster-declarations
- FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) - per-county per-hazard risk ratings and expected annual loss. hazards.fema.gov/nri
- NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database - state-level storm/severe-weather event records, 2015-2025. ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents
Data sourced from official public datasets. See our methodology for details. Retrieved and formatted by PlainHazard Editorial
Verify with FEMA → · Verify with FEMA NRI → · Verify with NOAA →
Every figure on PlainHazard is rendered directly from FEMA federal disaster data, no number is typed in by an editor. See our editorial standards & corrections policy, the methodology behind these numbers, or national statistics report, the data & editorial changelog, or report a data error.