FEMA Records
25
High volume
Arkansas · FEMA + NOAA + National Risk Index
Jefferson County, AR
25 FEMA disaster declarations (1973-2026), with a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Moderate. Most common hazard: Severe Storm.
- 25
- FEMA declarations
- 18
- Major disasters
- 85
- NRI risk · Relatively Moderate
- Severe Storm
- Top hazard
The verdict
Two federal records point in the busier direction for Jefferson County. Its 25 FEMA declarations are 3% above the Arkansas county mean and exceed the count for 71% of the 3,266 counties in this registry. Separately, FEMA's National Risk Index places it in the riskiest 15%, based on modeled expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience.
- Riskiest 15%
- of U.S. counties for FEMA National Risk Index score
- Relatively Moderate
- FEMA National Risk Index rating
- 25
- FEMA declarations vs 21 national county avg
- 596
- NFIP flood insurance claims filed
FEMA's National Risk Index and its declaration registry are separate measures. This county's registry includes Major Disaster (DR) and Emergency (EM) records; an EM authorizes a narrower set of federal assistance than a DR.
FEMA OpenFEMA declaration desk
County FIPS 05069 · Jefferson County 25 declarations · rank 813/3,266
DECL-HEAVY · MAJOR-MID · RANK-MID · PHOTO-FINISH · NRI-MID · ACT-HIGH · TYPE-LEAD · VS-ST-ABOVE
- DECL-HEAVY 25
- MAJOR-MID 72%
- RANK-MID #813
- PHOTO-FINISH Lafayette
- NRI-MID 85
- ACT-HIGH High
- TYPE-LEAD Severe Storm
- VS-ST-ABOVE +3%
Nearest declaration peer: Lafayette, MO (0 declaration gap)
FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 filing stamps for this county register. Read with this county → · Arkansas state profile
Jefferson County among high-volume declaration counties
FEMA declaration records among Jefferson County and nearest peers by total count
- Los Angeles · largest
Los Angeles · largest
88 declarations
- Benton · near 25
Benton · near
25 declarations
- Hancock · near 25
Hancock · near
25 declarations
- Jefferson · this county 25
Jefferson · this county
25 declarations
- Lafayette · near 25
Lafayette · near
25 declarations
- Ujelang · smallest 1
Ujelang · smallest
1 declarations
What this shows Jefferson County carries 25 FEMA declaration records, ranked 813 of 3,266 counties in this registry.
Where Jefferson County ranks in the national declaration registry
Jefferson County vs. high-volume counties in this registry
FEMA disaster declarations, all-time · Jefferson County
25 Top 29% higher than 71% of 3,266 counties
Each bar is a band; taller bars hold more counties. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count, share, and where it sits relative to this entry.
Source FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 · 2026-08-25
Jefferson County's FEMA Risk Index score
Which hazard drives modeled loss here?
FEMA's modeled annual dollar loss for Jefferson County is led by Riverine Flooding (about $11.9M Expected Annual Loss, Historical Loss Ratio Relatively Low), while Ice Storm carries the highest National Risk Index rating (Very High). EAL and risk score use different inputs; they need not agree.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025 release) - Expected Annual Loss vs composite risk rating by hazard.
What does Jefferson County's hazard record show?
Reading the federal records together
FEMA's NFIP table contains a substantial paid-claim history for this county: 596 claims and $14.4M in payments. PlainHazard labels 500 or more claims a heavy registry record; that is a reporting bucket, not an official FEMA risk grade. The average paid claim was $24.2K. NFIP totals exclude uninsured flood losses and do not measure how many properties currently carry a policy.
The declaration register points in the busier direction. Jefferson County's 25 federal records stand 3% above the Arkansas county mean of 24.2. That comparison describes how often federal action was recorded, including any Major Disaster, Emergency, and Fire Management entries shown on this page; it does not convert the count into future probability.
FEMA National Risk Index
This county sits among the highest-risk counties nationally on FEMA's National Risk Index, a composite score of 85.2/100 (Relatively Moderate). Expected Annual Loss is rated Relatively Low (roughly $37.1M in annualized losses). Social vulnerability reads Very High and community resilience Relatively High, both critical modifiers of realized harm here. Of the 18 hazards FEMA models, Ice Storm stands out as the sharpest exposure here, rated Very High. FEMA's modeled frequency puts that hazard at an average of 1.4 times per year here, based on 92 historical events on record.
67 /100
Historical Activity Index
High historical activity
Jefferson County, AR · PlainHazard-derived composite from federal records
This 0–100 index is an explicit PlainHazard composite from FEMA declaration history only on the county surface (this DB has no county-level NOAA damage row) . It is not FEMA's National Risk Index, not a forecast, and not a safety, insurance, or preparedness rating. Open the calculator · Methodology
FEMA Declarations (1953–present) High
18/30
25 OpenFEMA declarations, full ingest window (1.2x national county average)
County Disaster Density High
13/25
25 declarations (1.0x state county average of 24)
Major Disaster Share High
18/25
18 of 25 declarations are major disasters (72%)
Hazard Diversity Very High
18/20
7 different disaster types declared in Jefferson County
FEMA NRI 8-hazard radar - Jefferson County
How to read this radar
Each axis: NRI risk rating (Very Low-Very High) on a 0-100 scale. Rounder = broad exposure; spiky = one or two hazards dominate.
Major Disaster share
72%
Major-heavy
NRI risk score
85
Relatively Moderate
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Per-county per-hazard ratings, December 2025 release
How often does each hazard strike Jefferson County?
FEMA's National Risk Index models a historical event count and an annualized frequency for each hazard type. Most hazards are expressed as modeled occurrences per year; FEMA expresses drought and heat-wave frequency as event-days per year. These modeled frequencies are not forecasts.
| Hazard | NRI Risk Rating | Recurrence |
|---|---|---|
| Ice Storm | Very High | an average of 1.4 times per year |
| Strong Wind | Relatively High | an average of 2.8 times per year |
| Earthquake | Relatively Moderate | roughly once every 250 years |
| Tornado | Relatively High | roughly once every 2 years |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 19 modeled event-days per year |
| Lightning | Relatively High | an average of 60 times per year |
| Riverine Flooding | Relatively Moderate | an average of 2.4 times per year |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | an average of 4.1 times per year |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | an average of 4.3 times per year |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | roughly once every 30 years |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 8.1 modeled event-days per year |
| Wildfire | Very Low | roughly once every 3,620 years |
| Landslide | Very Low | roughly once every 4 years |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | roughly once every 1 years |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Modeled annualized frequency; drought and heat wave use event-days/year, December 2025 release
Disaster Types
Severe Storm 9
Flood 7
Winter Storm 2
Hurricane 2
Biological 2
Severe Ice Storm 2
Tornado 1
What Severe Storm declarations mean here
Severe Storm is the most frequent declaration type on Jefferson County's record, 36% of its declarations. In FEMA's vocabulary this covers convective weather: thunderstorm straight-line winds, large hail, and the multi-day outbreaks that often carry embedded tornadoes. Activity is heaviest in spring and summer, though the season varies by region.
These events behave differently from a hurricane on paper. Damage tends to be distributed along a storm track rather than concentrated on a coastline, and a declaration typically follows an outbreak that crossed several counties over a few days, not a single point of impact. Because the qualifying threshold is the cost of uninsured public and individual losses rather than storm intensity, two similar storms can produce a declaration in one year and none in another.
Declaration counts describe past federal action. They are a record of what was declared, not a forecast of future hazard probability.
Declaration Types
What DR / EM / FM mean
FEMA categorizes declarations as Major Disasters (DR), Emergencies (EM), or Fire Management Assistance (FM).
Major Disaster - 18 72.0%
of all 25 declarations
Emergency - 7 28.0%
of all 25 declarations
FEMA Declarations Timeline
| Year | Declarations | |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | |
| 2025 | 1 | |
| 2023 | 1 | |
| 2020 | 4 | |
| 2019 | 2 | |
| 2016 | 1 | |
| 2015 | 1 | |
| 2011 | 1 | |
| 2010 | 1 | |
| 2009 | 1 | |
| 2008 | 1 | |
| 2005 | 1 | |
| 2001 | 2 | |
| 1999 | 1 | |
| 1997 | 2 | |
Show 4 earlier declaration years
| 1990 | 1 | |
| 1975 | 1 | |
| 1974 | 1 | |
| 1973 | 1 | |
Disaster Declarations
How the 25 FEMA declarations break into federal action codes (DR / EM / FM). Same DISTINCT grain as the table below.
Download these 25 declarations as CSV . FEMA source data is public domain; our derived presentation is CC0.
| DR# | Title | Type | Incident | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3636 | SEVERE WINTER STORM | EM | Winter Storm | 2026-01-24 |
| 3627 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, AND FLOODING | EM | Severe Storm | 2025-04-05 |
| 4700 | SEVERE WINTER STORM | DR | Winter Storm | 2023-04-04 |
| 3541 | HURRICANE LAURA | EM | Hurricane | 2020-08-27 |
| 4556 | SEVERE STORMS AND STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS | DR | Tornado | 2020-07-10 |
| 4518 | COVID-19 PANDEMIC | DR | Biological | 2020-04-03 |
| 3461 | COVID-19 | EM | Biological | 2020-03-13 |
| 4441 | SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING | DR | Flood | 2019-06-08 |
| 3414 | SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING | EM | Flood | 2019-05-30 |
| 4254 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2016-02-05 |
| 4226 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2015-06-26 |
| 1975 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2011-05-02 |
| 1872 | SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2010-02-04 |
| 1845 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2009-06-16 |
| 1751 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2008-03-26 |
| 3215 | HURRICANE KATRINA EVACUATION | EM | Hurricane | 2005-09-02 |
| 1354 | SEVERE WINTER ICE STORM | DR | Severe Ice Storm | 2000-12-29 |
| 3159 | SEVERE WINTER ICE STORM | EM | Severe Ice Storm | 2000-12-28 |
| 1266 | AR SEVERE WEATHER 1-21-99 | DR | Severe Storm | 1999-01-23 |
| 1176 | FLOODING, SEVERE STORMS | DR | Flood | 1997-04-14 |
Show 5 earlier declaration records
| DR# | Title | Type | Incident | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1162 | SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADOES | DR | Severe Storm | 1997-03-02 |
| 865 | SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1990-05-15 |
| 471 | HEAVY RAINS & FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1975-06-07 |
| 437 | SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1974-06-08 |
| 375 | SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1973-04-27 |
Storm Events in Arkansas
Statewide NOAA context only. PlainHazard does not currently attribute these state totals to Jefferson County.
| Storm Type | Events | Fatalities | Injuries | Property Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunderstorm Wind | 3,657 | 10 | 23 | $60.9M |
| Hail | 2,230 | 0 | 0 | $7.7M |
| Flash Flood | 1,517 | 12 | 3 | $15.9M |
| Heat | 1,222 | 2 | 325 | $0 |
| Flood | 1,152 | 9 | 0 | $40.2M |
Source: NOAA Storm Events Database State-level aggregated data, 2015-2025
NFIP Flood Insurance Claims
Total Claims
596
Total Paid
$14.4M
Avg Per Claim
$24.2K
Source: FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA Claims Data
FEMA National Risk Index
Overall Risk
Relatively Moderate
Score: 85.2/100
Expected Annual Loss
Relatively Low
$37.1M/year
Social Vulnerability
Very High
Community Resilience
Relatively High
Hazard Risk Breakdown
Ice Storm Very High
Strong Wind Relatively High
Earthquake Relatively Moderate
Tornado Relatively High
Heat Wave Relatively Moderate
Lightning Relatively High
Riverine Flooding Relatively Moderate
Winter Weather Relatively Moderate
Hail Relatively Moderate
Hurricane Relatively Low
Drought Relatively Low
Wildfire Very Low
Landslide Very Low
Cold Wave Relatively Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) Ratings reflect relative scores among all US counties. Data: hazards.fema.gov/nri
The model's sharpest exposure here: Ice Storm
Ice storms load power lines and tree limbs with accumulating freezing rain until they fail. The characteristic cost is infrastructure and multi-day power loss across a wide area rather than structural damage to buildings, which is why their consequences often outlast the weather that caused them.
Worth noting for Jefferson County: the model and the federal record do NOT point at the same hazard. Ice Storm carries the highest modeled rating (Very High), while the county's declaration history is led by Severe Storm. That is not a contradiction, the two measure genuinely different things. Declarations record federal ACTION, which requires damage costly enough to exceed state and local capacity; the Risk Index models EXPECTED annual loss across all 18 hazards whether or not any declaration ever followed. A hazard can be the county's largest modeled exposure and never once have driven a declaration.
National Risk Index ratings are modeled estimates of expected annual loss, not predictions of what will happen in any given year.
Data-matched county comparisons
Jefferson County's closest FEMA peer: King and Queen County, VA
Comparisons use published FEMA declaration fields plus the National Risk Index composite for Jefferson County. Record similarity, not a safety rating.
Closest declaration profiles
Jefferson County shows 25 FEMA declarations, led by Severe Storm.
Similar Major-disaster share
Jefferson County: 18 of 25 of its declarations are Major.
Similar modeled NRI score
Jefferson County: NRI composite 85.2 (Relatively Moderate).
How these peers are chosen
Cohort: Published U.S. county equivalents outside the source state or territory. Each metric keeps six ETL candidates; three unique destinations are shown after de-duplicating across axes. Declaration-volume ranking combines count and Major-disaster share and prefers a different leading incident type; Major-share ranks the Major fraction adjusted for volume; NRI ranks the modeled composite score only.
Retained FEMA snapshot feed for Jefferson County - capture-dated entries only.
Compare beyond this state
Nationwide peers by NRI score & FEMA declaration volume
Two PlainHazard-derived comparison paths for Jefferson County: nearest out-of-state National Risk Index composite and nearest FEMA declaration count (floor ≥5 records). Record similarity only, not a forecast of the next hazard.
Similar NRI composite
Nearest out-of-state counties by FEMA NRI score. This county: 85.2 (Relatively Moderate).
Similar declaration volume
Nearest out-of-state counties by FEMA declaration count. This county: 25. NRI peers are excluded so the two link sets stay distinct.
Further reading for this county
Understanding disaster data
Jefferson County's NFIP claims file (596 claims) and FEMA declaration history measure different federal records - this guide separates them from modeled NRI risk.
More PlainHazard guides
- Most disaster-prone counties - U.S. counties ranked by FEMA declaration totals.
- Understanding disaster data - declarations vs storm events vs NRI scores.
- Preparing for natural disasters - household checklist (not county-specific advice).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most common disaster type in Jefferson County?
The most common disaster type in Jefferson County is Severe Storm, with 9 declarations. Other disaster types include Flood (7), Winter Storm (2), Hurricane (2).
How does Jefferson County's FEMA declaration record compare with the Arkansas average?
FEMA lists 25 declaration records for Jefferson County. That is 3% above the Arkansas county mean of 24.2. Its count is also 21% above the national county mean of 20.7. A larger declaration history records more federal actions; it is not a forecast of the county's next hazard.
How many major FEMA disaster declarations has Jefferson County received?
Jefferson County has received 18 major disaster declarations, representing 72% of all 25 disaster declarations.
How many flood insurance claims has Jefferson County filed?
Jefferson County has 596 National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims totaling $14.4M in payments, with an average of $24.2K per claim.
Does FEMA's top risk-rated hazard match the highest Expected Annual Loss in Jefferson County?
No. In Jefferson County, Ice Storm has the highest National Risk Index rating (Very High), while Riverine Flooding leads Expected Annual Loss at about $11.9M. FEMA's risk score and dollar-loss model use different inputs, so the leaders often differ.
What was the worst year for disasters in Jefferson County?
The most active year for disaster declarations in Jefferson County was 2020, with 4 declarations. The county has FEMA disaster data spanning 1973 to 2026.
What is the FEMA National Risk Index score for Jefferson County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, Jefferson County, Arkansas has an overall risk score of 85.2 out of 100 (Relatively Moderate). Social vulnerability here rates Very High, while community resilience comes in at Relatively High. The Expected Annual Loss (EAL) score is Relatively Low, representing $37.1M in annualized losses.
Which natural hazard poses the greatest risk to Jefferson County?
The top hazard flagged by FEMA's NRI for Jefferson County is Ice Storm (risk rating: Very High). Other significant hazards include Strong Wind (Relatively High) and Earthquake (Relatively Moderate). FEMA's modeled event frequency puts ice storm here at an average of 1.4 times per year, drawn from 92 historical events on record. The underlying methodology weighs historical event frequency against exposed assets and community vulnerability.
Data Sources & Methodology
Disaster declaration data comes from the FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 API, which includes all federally declared disasters, emergencies, and fire management assistance grants.
Storm event data is sourced from the NOAA Storm Events Database (2015-2025), which tracks significant weather events including thunderstorms, tornadoes, floods, and winter storms.
Flood insurance data comes from the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA claims dataset.
This data is provided for informational purposes only. FEMA disaster declarations represent federal response actions and may not capture all local emergencies or weather events.
FEMA OpenFEMA declarations + NRI for Jefferson County · vintage 2026-08-25 · Methodology · Arkansas profile · Verify with FEMA OpenFEMA · Verify with NOAA Storm Events