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Arkansas · FEMA + NOAA + National Risk Index

Madison County, AR

30 FEMA disaster declarations (1969-2026), with a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Low. Most common hazard: Severe Storm.

30
FEMA declarations
22
Major disasters
45
NRI risk · Relatively Low
Severe Storm
Top hazard

The verdict

Two federal records point in the busier direction for Madison County. Its 30 FEMA declarations are 24% above the Arkansas county mean and exceed the count for 86% of the 3,266 counties in this registry. Separately, FEMA's National Risk Index places it safer than 45%, based on modeled expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience.

Safer than 45%
of U.S. counties for FEMA National Risk Index score
Relatively Low
FEMA National Risk Index rating
30
FEMA declarations vs 21 national county avg
7
NFIP flood insurance claims filed

FEMA's National Risk Index and its declaration registry are separate measures. This county's registry includes Major Disaster (DR) and Emergency (EM) records; an EM authorizes a narrower set of federal assistance than a DR.

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FEMA OpenFEMA declaration desk

County FIPS 05087 · Madison County 30 declarations · rank 417/3,266

DECL-HEAVY · MAJOR-MID · RANK-MID · PHOTO-FINISH · NRI-LOW · ACT-HIGH · TYPE-LEAD · VS-ST-ABOVE

  • DECL-HEAVY 30
  • MAJOR-MID 73%
  • RANK-MID #417
  • PHOTO-FINISH Jefferson
  • NRI-LOW 45
  • ACT-HIGH High
  • TYPE-LEAD Severe Storm
  • VS-ST-ABOVE +24%

Nearest declaration peer: Jefferson, OK (0 declaration gap)

FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 filing stamps for this county register. Read with this county → · Arkansas state profile

Madison County among high-volume declaration counties

FEMA declaration records among Madison County and nearest peers by total count

declarations

What this shows Madison County carries 30 FEMA declaration records, ranked 417 of 3,266 counties in this registry.

Source FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 As of 2026-08-25

Where Madison County ranks in the national declaration registry

Madison County vs. high-volume counties in this registry

FEMA disaster declarations, all-time · Madison County

30 Top 14% higher than 86% of 3,266 counties

This county 0 90 all U.S. counties FEMA tracks, bucketed by value

Each bar is a band; taller bars hold more counties. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count, share, and where it sits relative to this entry.

Source FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 · 2026-08-25

Madison County's FEMA Risk Index score

0/100100/100Arkansas avg56/10045.1/100
FEMA National Risk Index composite score vs. the Arkansas county average

Which hazard drives modeled loss here?

FEMA's modeled annual dollar loss for Madison County is led by Riverine Flooding (about $6.0M Expected Annual Loss, Historical Loss Ratio Relatively High), while Ice Storm carries the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively High). EAL and risk score use different inputs; they need not agree.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025 release) - Expected Annual Loss vs composite risk rating by hazard.

What does Madison County's hazard record show?

FEMA National Risk Index

FEMA's data shows an elevated National Risk Index composite of 45.1/100 for this county (Relatively Low rating). Expected Annual Loss comes in at Very Low (roughly $11.7M in annualized losses). Social vulnerability (Relatively High) and community resilience (Relatively Low) both factor into how that raw exposure plays out on the ground. Of the 18 hazards FEMA models, Ice Storm stands out as the sharpest exposure here, rated Relatively High. FEMA's modeled frequency puts that hazard at an average of 1.9 times per year here, based on 127 historical events on record.

Reading the federal records together

This county has a small entry in FEMA's NFIP paid-claims table: 7 claims and $112.5K paid in total. PlainHazard calls 1-49 claims a light registry record, a label for this dataset rather than a finding that flood exposure is low. A short claims history can also reflect insurance take-up, the period covered, or losses that were never insured.

The declaration register points in the busier direction. Madison County's 30 federal records stand 24% above the Arkansas county mean of 24.2. That comparison describes how often federal action was recorded, including any Major Disaster, Emergency, and Fire Management entries shown on this page; it does not convert the count into future probability.

73 /100

Historical Activity Index

High historical activity

Madison County, AR · PlainHazard-derived composite from federal records

This 0–100 index is an explicit PlainHazard composite from FEMA declaration history only on the county surface (this DB has no county-level NOAA damage row) . It is not FEMA's National Risk Index, not a forecast, and not a safety, insurance, or preparedness rating. Open the calculator · Methodology

FEMA Declarations (1953–present) High
22/30

30 OpenFEMA declarations, full ingest window (1.4x national county average)

County Disaster Density High
15/25

30 declarations (1.2x state county average of 24)

Major Disaster Share High
18/25

22 of 30 declarations are major disasters (73%)

Hazard Diversity Very High
18/20

7 different disaster types declared in Madison County

FEMA NRI 8-hazard radar - Madison County

Madison County NRI risk profile 8-axis FEMA National Risk Index radar showing per-hazard scores for Earthquake 8, Flood 25, Hurricane 8, Tornado 48, Wildfire 25, Drought 0, Heat Wave 25, Winter Storm 70. The simple mean of these eight displayed scores is 26 of 100. Earthquake Flood Hurricane Tornado Wildfire Drought Heat Wave Winter Storm 26 8-hazard mean
Madison County NRI risk profile FIPS 05087 · displayed-hazard mean 26/100
How to read this radar

Each axis: NRI risk rating (Very Low-Very High) on a 0-100 scale. Rounder = broad exposure; spiky = one or two hazards dominate.

FEMA Records

30

High volume

Major Disaster share

73%

Major-heavy

NRI risk score

45

Relatively Low

Source: FEMA National Risk Index Per-county per-hazard ratings, December 2025 release

How often does each hazard strike Madison County?

FEMA's National Risk Index models a historical event count and an annualized frequency for each hazard type. Most hazards are expressed as modeled occurrences per year; FEMA expresses drought and heat-wave frequency as event-days per year. These modeled frequencies are not forecasts.

Hazard NRI Risk Rating Recurrence
Ice Storm Relatively High an average of 1.9 times per year
Landslide Relatively Low an average of 2 times per year
Heat Wave Relatively Low 9 modeled event-days per year
Wildfire Relatively Low roughly once every 458 years
Winter Weather Relatively Moderate an average of 11 times per year
Tornado Relatively Moderate roughly once every 2 years
Riverine Flooding Relatively Low an average of 1.9 times per year
Earthquake Very Low roughly once every 591 years
Hail Relatively Low an average of 6.7 times per year
Hurricane Very Low roughly once every 68 years
Strong Wind Relatively Low an average of 5.2 times per year
Cold Wave Relatively Low an average of 1.8 times per year
Lightning Relatively Low an average of 58 times per year
Drought No Rating 14 modeled event-days per year

Source: FEMA National Risk Index Modeled annualized frequency; drought and heat wave use event-days/year, December 2025 release

Disaster Types

Severe Storm 13
Flood 7
Severe Ice Storm 4
Hurricane 2
Biological 2
Winter Storm 1
Drought 1

What Severe Storm declarations mean here

Severe Storm is the most frequent declaration type on Madison County's record, 43% of its declarations. In FEMA's vocabulary this covers convective weather: thunderstorm straight-line winds, large hail, and the multi-day outbreaks that often carry embedded tornadoes. Activity is heaviest in spring and summer, though the season varies by region.

These events behave differently from a hurricane on paper. Damage tends to be distributed along a storm track rather than concentrated on a coastline, and a declaration typically follows an outbreak that crossed several counties over a few days, not a single point of impact. Because the qualifying threshold is the cost of uninsured public and individual losses rather than storm intensity, two similar storms can produce a declaration in one year and none in another.

Declaration counts describe past federal action. They are a record of what was declared, not a forecast of future hazard probability.

Declaration Types

What DR / EM / FM mean

FEMA categorizes declarations as Major Disasters (DR), Emergencies (EM), or Fire Management Assistance (FM).

Major Disaster - 22 73.3%

of all 30 declarations

Emergency - 8 26.7%

of all 30 declarations

FEMA Declarations Timeline

Year Declarations
2026 1
2025 1
2024 1
2020 3
2019 1
2017 1
2016 1
2015 1
2014 1
2013 1
2011 1
2009 3
2008 1
2005 1
2004 1
Show 10 earlier declaration years
2003 1
2001 2
1996 1
1991 1
1990 1
1977 1
1974 1
1973 1
1972 1
1969 1

Disaster Declarations

How the 30 FEMA declarations break into federal action codes (DR / EM / FM). Same DISTINCT grain as the table below.

Download these 30 declarations as CSV . FEMA source data is public domain; our derived presentation is CC0.

DR# Title Type Incident Date
3636 SEVERE WINTER STORM EM Winter Storm 2026-01-24
3627 SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, AND FLOODING EM Severe Storm 2025-04-05
4788 SEVERE STORMS, STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, TORNADOES, AND FLOODING DR Severe Storm 2024-05-30
3541 HURRICANE LAURA EM Hurricane 2020-08-27
4518 COVID-19 PANDEMIC DR Biological 2020-04-03
3461 COVID-19 EM Biological 2020-03-13
4460 SEVERE STORMS, STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, TORNADOES, AND FLOODING DR Flood 2019-09-13
4318 SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, AND FLOODING DR Severe Storm 2017-06-15
4254 SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, AND FLOODING DR Severe Storm 2016-02-05
4226 SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, AND FLOODING DR Severe Storm 2015-06-26
4160 SEVERE WINTER STORM DR Severe Ice Storm 2014-01-06
4143 SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING DR Severe Storm 2013-09-04
1975 SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING DR Severe Storm 2011-05-02
1819 SEVERE WINTER STORM DR Severe Storm 2009-02-06
3301 SEVERE WINTER STORM EM Severe Ice Storm 2009-01-28
1804 TROPICAL STORM IKE DR Severe Storm 2008-10-22
1751 SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, AND FLOODING DR Severe Storm 2008-03-26
3215 HURRICANE KATRINA EVACUATION EM Hurricane 2005-09-02
1516 SEVER STORMS, FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES DR Severe Storm 2004-05-07
1472 SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, AND FLOODING DR Severe Storm 2003-06-06
Show 10 earlier declaration records
DR# Title Type Incident Date
1354 SEVERE WINTER ICE STORM DR Severe Ice Storm 2000-12-29
3159 SEVERE WINTER ICE STORM EM Severe Ice Storm 2000-12-28
1111 SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADOES DR Severe Storm 1996-04-23
907 SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING DR Flood 1991-05-30
865 SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING DR Flood 1990-05-15
3019 DROUGHT EM Drought 1976-12-03
437 SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING DR Flood 1974-06-08
375 SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING DR Flood 1973-04-27
321 SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING DR Flood 1972-01-27
254 SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING DR Flood 1969-02-15

Storm Events in Arkansas

Statewide NOAA context only. PlainHazard does not currently attribute these state totals to Madison County.

Storm Type Events Fatalities Injuries Property Damage
Thunderstorm Wind 3,657 10 23 $60.9M
Hail 2,230 0 0 $7.7M
Flash Flood 1,517 12 3 $15.9M
Heat 1,222 2 325 $0
Flood 1,152 9 0 $40.2M

Source: NOAA Storm Events Database State-level aggregated data, 2015-2025

NFIP Flood Insurance Claims

Total Claims

7

Total Paid

$112.5K

Avg Per Claim

$16.1K

Source: FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA Claims Data

FEMA National Risk Index

Overall Risk

Relatively Low

Score: 45.1/100

Expected Annual Loss

Very Low

$11.7M/year

Social Vulnerability

Relatively High

Community Resilience

Relatively Low

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Ice Storm Relatively High
Landslide Relatively Low
Heat Wave Relatively Low
Wildfire Relatively Low
Winter Weather Relatively Moderate
Tornado Relatively Moderate
Riverine Flooding Relatively Low
Earthquake Very Low
Hail Relatively Low
Hurricane Very Low
Strong Wind Relatively Low
Cold Wave Relatively Low
Lightning Relatively Low
Drought No Rating

Source: FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) Ratings reflect relative scores among all US counties. Data: hazards.fema.gov/nri

The model's sharpest exposure here: Ice Storm

Ice storms load power lines and tree limbs with accumulating freezing rain until they fail. The characteristic cost is infrastructure and multi-day power loss across a wide area rather than structural damage to buildings, which is why their consequences often outlast the weather that caused them.

Worth noting for Madison County: the model and the federal record do NOT point at the same hazard. Ice Storm carries the highest modeled rating (Relatively High), while the county's declaration history is led by Severe Storm. That is not a contradiction, the two measure genuinely different things. Declarations record federal ACTION, which requires damage costly enough to exceed state and local capacity; the Risk Index models EXPECTED annual loss across all 18 hazards whether or not any declaration ever followed. A hazard can be the county's largest modeled exposure and never once have driven a declaration.

National Risk Index ratings are modeled estimates of expected annual loss, not predictions of what will happen in any given year.

Data-matched county comparisons

Madison County's closest FEMA peer: Solano County, CA

Comparisons use published FEMA declaration fields plus the National Risk Index composite for Madison County. Record similarity, not a safety rating.

How these peers are chosen

Cohort: Published U.S. county equivalents outside the source state or territory. Each metric keeps six ETL candidates; three unique destinations are shown after de-duplicating across axes. Declaration-volume ranking combines count and Major-disaster share and prefers a different leading incident type; Major-share ranks the Major fraction adjusted for volume; NRI ranks the modeled composite score only.

Retained FEMA snapshot feed for Madison County - capture-dated entries only.

Compare beyond this state

Nationwide peers by NRI score & FEMA declaration volume

Two PlainHazard-derived comparison paths for Madison County: nearest out-of-state National Risk Index composite and nearest FEMA declaration count (floor ≥5 records). Record similarity only, not a forecast of the next hazard.

Further reading for this county

Most disaster-prone counties

With 30 FEMA declarations, Madison County sits in the high-volume declaration band - see how that count ranks against other U.S. counties.

More PlainHazard guides

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the most common disaster type in Madison County?
The most common disaster type in Madison County is Severe Storm, with 13 declarations. Other disaster types include Flood (7), Severe Ice Storm (4), Hurricane (2).
How does Madison County's FEMA declaration record compare with the Arkansas average?
FEMA lists 30 declaration records for Madison County. That is 24% above the Arkansas county mean of 24.2. Its count is also 45% above the national county mean of 20.7. A larger declaration history records more federal actions; it is not a forecast of the county's next hazard.
How many major FEMA disaster declarations has Madison County received?
Madison County has received 22 major disaster declarations, representing 73% of all 30 disaster declarations.
How many flood insurance claims has Madison County filed?
Madison County has 7 National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims totaling $112.5K in payments, with an average of $16.1K per claim.
Does FEMA's top risk-rated hazard match the highest Expected Annual Loss in Madison County?
No. In Madison County, Ice Storm has the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively High), while Riverine Flooding leads Expected Annual Loss at about $6.0M. FEMA's risk score and dollar-loss model use different inputs, so the leaders often differ.
What was the worst year for disasters in Madison County?
The most active year for disaster declarations in Madison County was 2009, with 3 declarations. The county has FEMA disaster data spanning 1969 to 2026.
What is the FEMA National Risk Index score for Madison County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, Madison County, Arkansas has an overall risk score of 45.1 out of 100 (Relatively Low). On social vulnerability the county rates Relatively High; on community resilience, Relatively Low. The Expected Annual Loss (EAL) score is Very Low, representing $11.7M in annualized losses.
Which natural hazard poses the greatest risk to Madison County?
FEMA's NRI data points to Madison County is Ice Storm (risk rating: Relatively High). Other significant hazards include Landslide (Relatively Low) and Heat Wave (Relatively Low). FEMA's modeled event frequency puts ice storm here at an average of 1.9 times per year, drawn from 127 historical events on record. The underlying methodology weighs historical event frequency against exposed assets and community vulnerability.
Data Sources & Methodology

Disaster declaration data comes from the FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 API, which includes all federally declared disasters, emergencies, and fire management assistance grants.

Storm event data is sourced from the NOAA Storm Events Database (2015-2025), which tracks significant weather events including thunderstorms, tornadoes, floods, and winter storms.

Flood insurance data comes from the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA claims dataset.

This data is provided for informational purposes only. FEMA disaster declarations represent federal response actions and may not capture all local emergencies or weather events.

FEMA OpenFEMA declarations + NRI for Madison County · vintage 2026-08-25 · Methodology · Arkansas profile · Verify with FEMA OpenFEMA · Verify with NOAA Storm Events