FEMA Records
8
Low volume
Colorado · FEMA + NOAA + National Risk Index
Mesa County, CO
8 FEMA disaster declarations (1977-2020), with a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Low. Most common hazard: Fire.
- 8
- FEMA declarations
- 3
- Major disasters
- 75
- NRI risk · Relatively Low
- Fire
- Top hazard
The verdict
Start with the local benchmark for Mesa County: 8 FEMA declaration records are 22% below the Colorado county mean, even though the count is higher than 6% of counties in the national registry. On FEMA's distinct National Risk Index model, which combines expected loss with vulnerability and resilience, the county ranks in the riskiest 25%.
- Riskiest 25%
- of U.S. counties for FEMA National Risk Index score
- Relatively Low
- FEMA National Risk Index rating
- 8
- FEMA declarations vs 21 national county avg
- 61
- NFIP flood insurance claims filed
FEMA's National Risk Index and its declaration registry are separate measures. This county's registry includes Fire Management Assistance (FM) records, which are not presidential disaster declarations, alongside Major Disaster (DR) and Emergency (EM) records.
FEMA OpenFEMA declaration desk
County FIPS 08077 · Mesa County 8 declarations · rank 3019/3,266
DECL-LIGHT · MAJOR-LIGHT · RANK-LOWER · PHOTO-FINISH · NRI-LOW · ACT-MODERATE · TYPE-LEAD · VS-ST-BELOW
- DECL-LIGHT 8
- MAJOR-LIGHT 38%
- RANK-LOWER #3,019
- PHOTO-FINISH Marion
- NRI-LOW 75
- ACT-MODERATE Moderate
- TYPE-LEAD Fire
- VS-ST-BELOW -22%
Nearest declaration peer: Marion, IL (0 declaration gap)
FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 filing stamps for this county register. Read with this county → · Colorado state profile
Mesa County among counties with fewer federal records
FEMA declaration records among Mesa County and nearest peers by total count
- Los Angeles · largest
Los Angeles · largest
88 declarations
- Kane · near 8
Kane · near
8 declarations
- Marion · near 8
Marion · near
8 declarations
- Mesa · this county 8
Mesa · this county
8 declarations
- Richland · near 8
Richland · near
8 declarations
- Ujelang · smallest 1
Ujelang · smallest
1 declarations
What this shows Mesa County carries 8 FEMA declaration records, ranked 3019 of 3,266 counties in this registry.
Mesa County versus quieter counties in this dataset
Mesa County among lower-declaration counties nationally
FEMA disaster declarations, all-time · Mesa County
8 6th percentile higher than 6% of 3,266 counties
Each bar is a band; taller bars hold more counties. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count, share, and where it sits relative to this entry.
Source FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 · 2026-08-25
Mesa County's FEMA Risk Index score
Which hazard drives modeled loss here?
FEMA's modeled annual dollar loss for Mesa County is led by Riverine Flooding (about $21.8M Expected Annual Loss, Historical Loss Ratio Relatively Moderate), while Landslide carries the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively High). EAL and risk score use different inputs; they need not agree.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025 release) - Expected Annual Loss vs composite risk rating by hazard.
What does Mesa County's hazard record show?
Reading the federal records together
The NFIP claims register shows a middle-volume loss record here: 61 paid claims, totaling $292.7K. PlainHazard uses 50-499 claims for this descriptive band; FEMA does not publish it as a safety or coverage category. The $4.8K average describes payments on recorded claims only, leaving uninsured damage and properties without a claim outside the measure.
Start with the state benchmark: a Colorado county averages 10.2 federal declaration records, while Mesa County has 8. The gap is 22% below that mean. Fewer entries indicate a quieter history of recorded federal actions, not immunity from a hazard and not a prediction about what happens next.
FEMA National Risk Index
This county sits among the highest-risk counties nationally on FEMA's National Risk Index, a composite score of 75.1/100 (Relatively Low). Expected Annual Loss is rated Relatively Low (roughly $34.7M in annualized losses). Social vulnerability reads Relatively Low and community resilience Relatively Moderate, both critical modifiers of realized harm here. Of the 18 hazards FEMA models, Landslide stands out as the sharpest exposure here, rated Relatively High. FEMA's modeled frequency puts that hazard at an average of 3 times per year here.
38 /100
Historical Activity Index
Moderate historical activity
Mesa County, CO · PlainHazard-derived composite from federal records
This 0–100 index is an explicit PlainHazard composite from FEMA declaration history only on the county surface (this DB has no county-level NOAA damage row) . It is not FEMA's National Risk Index, not a forecast, and not a safety, insurance, or preparedness rating. Open the calculator · Methodology
FEMA Declarations (1953–present) Low
6/30
8 OpenFEMA declarations, full ingest window (0.4x national county average)
County Disaster Density Moderate
10/25
8 declarations (0.8x state county average of 10)
Major Disaster Share Moderate
9/25
3 of 8 declarations are major disasters (38%)
Hazard Diversity High
13/20
5 different disaster types declared in Mesa County
FEMA NRI 8-hazard radar - Mesa County
How to read this radar
Each axis: NRI risk rating (Very Low-Very High) on a 0-100 scale. Rounder = broad exposure; spiky = one or two hazards dominate.
Major Disaster share
38%
Mixed major share
NRI risk score
75
Relatively Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Per-county per-hazard ratings, December 2025 release
How often does each hazard strike Mesa County?
FEMA's National Risk Index models a historical event count and an annualized frequency for each hazard type. Most hazards are expressed as modeled occurrences per year; FEMA expresses drought and heat-wave frequency as event-days per year. These modeled frequencies are not forecasts.
| Hazard | NRI Risk Rating | Recurrence |
|---|---|---|
| Landslide | Relatively High | an average of 3 times per year |
| Lightning | Very High | an average of 52 times per year |
| Avalanche | Relatively High | roughly once every 6 years |
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate | roughly once every 605 years |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | roughly once every 726 years |
| Riverine Flooding | Relatively Moderate | an average of 2.6 times per year |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 92 modeled event-days per year |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | an average of 25 times per year |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 0.3 modeled event-days per year |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | roughly once every 67 years |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | roughly once every 51 years |
| Hail | Very Low | roughly once every 7 years |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | roughly once every 10,000 years |
| Tornado | Very Low | roughly once every 10 years |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | roughly once every 3 years |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Modeled annualized frequency; drought and heat wave use event-days/year, December 2025 release
Disaster Types
Fire 3
Biological 2
Coastal Storm 1
Flood 1
Drought 1
What Fire declarations mean here
Fire is the most frequent declaration type on Mesa County's record, 38% of its declarations. Wildfire is the one hazard here with its own dedicated federal instrument: the Fire Management Assistance Grant, which appears in this data as an FM record. An FMAG can be authorised while a fire is still burning, on a timescale of hours, because its purpose is to reimburse the cost of fighting a fire that threatens to become a major disaster.
That distinction matters when comparing counties. An FM declaration is not a presidential major disaster declaration and does not carry the same assistance programmes, so a fire-heavy county's total is not directly comparable with a hurricane-heavy county's total unless the declaration types are separated, which is why they are listed separately on this page.
Declaration counts describe past federal action. They are a record of what was declared, not a forecast of future hazard probability.
Declaration Types
What DR / EM / FM mean
FEMA categorizes declarations as Major Disasters (DR), Emergencies (EM), or Fire Management Assistance (FM).
Major Disaster - 3 37.5%
of all 8 declarations
Emergency - 3 37.5%
of all 8 declarations
Fire Management - 2 25.0%
of all 8 declarations
FEMA Declarations Timeline
| Year | Declarations | |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 3 | |
| 2005 | 1 | |
| 2002 | 2 | |
| 1984 | 1 | |
| 1977 | 1 | |
Disaster Declarations
How the 8 FEMA declarations break into federal action codes (DR / EM / FM). Same DISTINCT grain as the table below.
Download these 8 declarations as CSV . FEMA source data is public domain; our derived presentation is CC0.
| DR# | Title | Type | Incident | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5335 | PINE GULCH FIRE | FM | Fire | 2020-08-19 |
| 4498 | COVID-19 PANDEMIC | DR | Biological | 2020-03-28 |
| 3436 | COVID-19 | EM | Biological | 2020-03-13 |
| 3224 | HURRICANE KATRINA EVACUATION | EM | Coastal Storm | 2005-09-05 |
| 1421 | WILDFIRES | DR | Fire | 2002-06-19 |
| 2422 | CO - DIERICH FIRE - 06/10/02 | FM | Fire | 2002-06-10 |
| 719 | SEVERE STORMS, MUDSLIDES, LANDSLIDES & FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1984-07-27 |
| 3025 | DROUGHT | EM | Drought | 1977-01-29 |
Storm Events in Colorado
Statewide NOAA context only. PlainHazard does not currently attribute these state totals to Mesa County.
| Storm Type | Events | Fatalities | Injuries | Property Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hail | 4,913 | 0 | 100 | $2.9B |
| Winter Weather | 2,620 | 3 | 23 | $22.5K |
| High Wind | 1,992 | 5 | 6 | $20.9M |
| Thunderstorm Wind | 1,741 | 2 | 11 | $5.4M |
| Winter Storm | 1,497 | 0 | 0 | $848.0K |
Source: NOAA Storm Events Database State-level aggregated data, 2015-2025
NFIP Flood Insurance Claims
Total Claims
61
Total Paid
$292.7K
Avg Per Claim
$4.8K
Source: FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA Claims Data
FEMA National Risk Index
Overall Risk
Relatively Low
Score: 75.1/100
Expected Annual Loss
Relatively Low
$34.7M/year
Social Vulnerability
Relatively Low
Community Resilience
Relatively Moderate
Hazard Risk Breakdown
Landslide Relatively High
Lightning Very High
Avalanche Relatively High
Wildfire Relatively Moderate
Earthquake Relatively Low
Riverine Flooding Relatively Moderate
Drought Relatively Moderate
Winter Weather Relatively Moderate
Heat Wave Relatively Low
Ice Storm Relatively Low
Cold Wave Relatively Low
Hail Very Low
Volcanic Activity Very Low
Tornado Very Low
Strong Wind Very Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) Ratings reflect relative scores among all US counties. Data: hazards.fema.gov/nri
The model's sharpest exposure here: Landslide
Landslide risk is a function of slope, soil and water, so it is usually a SECOND-ORDER hazard: it is triggered by the rainfall, snowmelt, wildfire burn scars or seismic shaking that came first. That is why a county can carry high landslide exposure whose realized damage is recorded under a flood or storm declaration instead.
Worth noting for Mesa County: the model and the federal record do NOT point at the same hazard. Landslide carries the highest modeled rating (Relatively High), while the county's declaration history is led by Fire. That is not a contradiction, the two measure genuinely different things. Declarations record federal ACTION, which requires damage costly enough to exceed state and local capacity; the Risk Index models EXPECTED annual loss across all 18 hazards whether or not any declaration ever followed. A hazard can be the county's largest modeled exposure and never once have driven a declaration.
National Risk Index ratings are modeled estimates of expected annual loss, not predictions of what will happen in any given year.
Data-matched county comparisons
Mesa County's closest FEMA peer: Lonoke County, AR
Comparisons use published FEMA declaration fields plus the National Risk Index composite for Mesa County. Record similarity, not a safety rating.
Similar modeled NRI score
Mesa County: NRI composite 75.1 (Relatively Low).
Similar Major-disaster share
Mesa County: 3 of 8 of its declarations are Major.
Closest declaration profiles
Mesa County shows 8 FEMA declarations, led by Fire.
How these peers are chosen
Cohort: Published U.S. county equivalents outside the source state or territory. Each metric keeps six ETL candidates; three unique destinations are shown after de-duplicating across axes. Declaration-volume ranking combines count and Major-disaster share and prefers a different leading incident type; Major-share ranks the Major fraction adjusted for volume; NRI ranks the modeled composite score only.
Retained FEMA snapshot feed for Mesa County - capture-dated entries only.
Compare beyond this state
Nationwide peers by NRI score & FEMA declaration volume
Two PlainHazard-derived comparison paths for Mesa County: nearest out-of-state National Risk Index composite and nearest FEMA declaration count (floor ≥5 records). Record similarity only, not a forecast of the next hazard.
Similar NRI composite
Nearest out-of-state counties by FEMA NRI score. This county: 75.1 (Relatively Low).
Similar declaration volume
Nearest out-of-state counties by FEMA declaration count. This county: 8. NRI peers are excluded so the two link sets stay distinct.
Further reading for this county
Understanding disaster data
Mesa County's NFIP claims file (61 claims) and FEMA declaration history measure different federal records - this guide separates them from modeled NRI risk.
More PlainHazard guides
- Most disaster-prone counties - U.S. counties ranked by FEMA declaration totals.
- Understanding disaster data - declarations vs storm events vs NRI scores.
- Preparing for natural disasters - household checklist (not county-specific advice).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most common disaster type in Mesa County?
The most common disaster type in Mesa County is Fire, with 3 declarations. Other disaster types include Biological (2), Coastal Storm (1), Flood (1).
How does Mesa County's FEMA declaration record compare with the Colorado average?
The typical Colorado county has 10.2 FEMA declaration records; Mesa County has 8, or 22% fewer. Against the national county mean of 20.7, this county's total is 61% lower. The comparison is historical and says nothing about the probability of a future event.
How many major FEMA disaster declarations has Mesa County received?
Mesa County has received 3 major disaster declarations, representing 38% of all 8 disaster declarations.
How many flood insurance claims has Mesa County filed?
Mesa County has 61 National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims totaling $292.7K in payments, with an average of $4.8K per claim.
Does FEMA's top risk-rated hazard match the highest Expected Annual Loss in Mesa County?
No. In Mesa County, Landslide has the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively High), while Riverine Flooding leads Expected Annual Loss at about $21.8M. FEMA's risk score and dollar-loss model use different inputs, so the leaders often differ.
What was the worst year for disasters in Mesa County?
The most active year for disaster declarations in Mesa County was 2020, with 3 declarations. The county has FEMA disaster data spanning 1977 to 2020.
What is the FEMA National Risk Index score for Mesa County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, Mesa County, Colorado has an overall risk score of 75.1 out of 100 (Relatively Low). The county's social vulnerability rating is Relatively Low and community resilience is Relatively Moderate. The Expected Annual Loss (EAL) score is Relatively Low, representing $34.7M in annualized losses.
Which natural hazard poses the greatest risk to Mesa County?
Based on FEMA NRI data, the highest-risk natural hazard in Mesa County is Landslide (risk rating: Relatively High). Other significant hazards include Lightning (Very High) and Avalanche (Relatively High). FEMA's modeled event frequency puts landslide here at an average of 3 times per year. These scores are based on FEMA's analysis of historical event frequency, exposed assets, and community vulnerability.
Data Sources & Methodology
Disaster declaration data comes from the FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 API, which includes all federally declared disasters, emergencies, and fire management assistance grants.
Storm event data is sourced from the NOAA Storm Events Database (2015-2025), which tracks significant weather events including thunderstorms, tornadoes, floods, and winter storms.
Flood insurance data comes from the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA claims dataset.
This data is provided for informational purposes only. FEMA disaster declarations represent federal response actions and may not capture all local emergencies or weather events.
FEMA OpenFEMA declarations + NRI for Mesa County · vintage 2026-08-25 · Methodology · Colorado profile · Verify with FEMA OpenFEMA · Verify with NOAA Storm Events