FEMA Records
6
Low volume
Utah · FEMA + NOAA + National Risk Index
San Juan County, UT
6 FEMA disaster declarations (1977-2025), with a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Very Low. Most common hazard: Biological.
- 6
- FEMA declarations
- 1
- Major disasters
- 27
- NRI risk · Very Low
- Biological
- Top hazard
The verdict
Start with the local benchmark for San Juan County: 6 FEMA declaration records are 29% below the Utah county mean, even though the count is higher than 3% of counties in the national registry. On FEMA's distinct National Risk Index model, which combines expected loss with vulnerability and resilience, the county ranks safer than 27%.
- Safer than 27%
- of U.S. counties for FEMA National Risk Index score
- Very Low
- FEMA National Risk Index rating
- 6
- FEMA declarations vs 21 national county avg
- 2
- fire declarations, the most common hazard here
FEMA's National Risk Index and its declaration registry are separate measures. This county's registry includes Fire Management Assistance (FM) records, which are not presidential disaster declarations, alongside Major Disaster (DR) and Emergency (EM) records.
FEMA OpenFEMA declaration desk
County FIPS 49037 · San Juan County 6 declarations · rank 3151/3,266
DECL-LIGHT · MAJOR-LOW · RANK-LOWER · PHOTO-FINISH · NRI-LOW · ACT-MODERATE · TYPE-LEAD · VS-ST-BELOW
- DECL-LIGHT 6
- MAJOR-LOW 17%
- RANK-LOWER #3,151
- PHOTO-FINISH Summit
- NRI-LOW Very Low
- ACT-MODERATE Moderate
- TYPE-LEAD Biological
- VS-ST-BELOW -29%
Nearest declaration peer: Summit, CO (0 declaration gap)
FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 filing stamps for this county register. Read with this county → · Utah state profile
San Juan County among counties with fewer federal records
FEMA declaration records among San Juan County and nearest peers by total count
- Los Angeles · largest
Los Angeles · largest
88 declarations
- Lake · near 6
Lake · near
6 declarations
- Lander · near 6
Lander · near
6 declarations
- San Juan · this county 6
San Juan · this county
6 declarations
- Summit · near 6
Summit · near
6 declarations
- Ujelang · smallest 1
Ujelang · smallest
1 declarations
What this shows San Juan County carries 6 FEMA declaration records, ranked 3151 of 3,266 counties in this registry.
San Juan County versus quieter counties in this dataset
San Juan County among lower-declaration counties nationally
FEMA disaster declarations, all-time · San Juan County
6 3rd percentile higher than 3% of 3,266 counties
Each bar is a band; taller bars hold more counties. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count, share, and where it sits relative to this entry.
Source FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 · 2026-08-25
San Juan County's FEMA Risk Index score
Which hazard drives modeled loss here?
FEMA's modeled annual dollar loss for San Juan County is led by Riverine Flooding (about $1.6M Expected Annual Loss, Historical Loss Ratio Relatively Moderate), while Landslide carries the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively High). EAL and risk score use different inputs; they need not agree.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025 release) - Expected Annual Loss vs composite risk rating by hazard.
What does San Juan County's hazard record show?
FEMA National Risk Index
This county's FEMA National Risk Index composite lands at 26.8/100 (Very Low), a modest reading against the rest of the country. Expected Annual Loss is rated Very Low (roughly $5.0M in annualized losses), tempered or compounded by a Very High social-vulnerability score and Very Low community-resilience score. Of the 18 hazards FEMA models, Landslide stands out as the sharpest exposure here, rated Relatively High. FEMA's modeled frequency puts that hazard at an average of 3.8 times per year here.
Reading the federal records together
No paid-claim row for this county appears in the NFIP county table used by PlainHazard. That absence is not evidence that flooding never occurred: the register observes claims under federal flood-insurance policies, not uninsured losses, emergency reports, or every flood outside the program. The FEMA declaration history below is therefore the available federal-action record on this page.
Start with the state benchmark: a Utah county averages 8.5 federal declaration records, while San Juan County has 6. The gap is 29% below that mean. Fewer entries indicate a quieter history of recorded federal actions, not immunity from a hazard and not a prediction about what happens next.
27 /100
Historical Activity Index
Moderate historical activity
San Juan County, UT · PlainHazard-derived composite from federal records
This 0–100 index is an explicit PlainHazard composite from FEMA declaration history only on the county surface (this DB has no county-level NOAA damage row) . It is not FEMA's National Risk Index, not a forecast, and not a safety, insurance, or preparedness rating. Open the calculator · Methodology
FEMA Declarations (1953–present) Low
4/30
6 OpenFEMA declarations, full ingest window (0.3x national county average)
County Disaster Density Moderate
9/25
6 declarations (0.7x state county average of 8)
Major Disaster Share Low
4/25
1 of 6 declarations are major disasters (17%)
Hazard Diversity High
10/20
4 different disaster types declared in San Juan County
FEMA NRI 8-hazard radar - San Juan County
How to read this radar
Each axis: NRI risk rating (Very Low-Very High) on a 0-100 scale. Rounder = broad exposure; spiky = one or two hazards dominate.
Major Disaster share
17%
Few majors
NRI risk score
27
Very Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Per-county per-hazard ratings, December 2025 release
How often does each hazard strike San Juan County?
FEMA's National Risk Index models a historical event count and an annualized frequency for each hazard type. Most hazards are expressed as modeled occurrences per year; FEMA expresses drought and heat-wave frequency as event-days per year. These modeled frequencies are not forecasts.
| Hazard | NRI Risk Rating | Recurrence |
|---|---|---|
| Landslide | Relatively High | an average of 3.8 times per year |
| Avalanche | Relatively High | roughly once every 15 years |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | an average of 10 times per year |
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | roughly once every 631 years |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | an average of 47 times per year |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 1.2 modeled event-days per year |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 133 modeled event-days per year |
| Earthquake | Very Low | roughly once every 824 years |
| Riverine Flooding | Very Low | an average of 1.9 times per year |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | roughly once every 67 years |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | roughly once every 5,000 years |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | roughly once every 11 years |
| Tornado | Very Low | roughly once every 8 years |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | roughly once every 266,917 years |
| Hail | Very Low | roughly once every 16 years |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Modeled annualized frequency; drought and heat wave use event-days/year, December 2025 release
Disaster Types
Fire 2
Biological 2
Coastal Storm 1
Drought 1
What Biological declarations mean here
Biological is the most frequent declaration type on San Juan County's record, 33% of its declarations. In practice this category is dominated by the COVID-19 declarations of 2020, which were issued across every US state and territory rather than in response to any local hazard event.
This has a direct consequence for how San Juan County's number should be read. Because those declarations reached essentially every county in the country, they raise every county's total by a similar amount and tell you nothing about local hazard exposure. A county whose record is led by Biological declarations is, in most cases, a county with a genuinely quiet weather-hazard history, the pandemic records are simply the largest thing in an otherwise short list.
Declaration counts describe past federal action. They are a record of what was declared, not a forecast of future hazard probability.
Declaration Types
What DR / EM / FM mean
FEMA categorizes declarations as Major Disasters (DR), Emergencies (EM), or Fire Management Assistance (FM).
Emergency - 3 50.0%
of all 6 declarations
Fire Management - 2 33.3%
of all 6 declarations
Major Disaster - 1 16.7%
of all 6 declarations
FEMA Declarations Timeline
| Year | Declarations | |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1 | |
| 2021 | 1 | |
| 2020 | 2 | |
| 2005 | 1 | |
| 1977 | 1 | |
Disaster Declarations
How the 6 FEMA declarations break into federal action codes (DR / EM / FM). Same DISTINCT grain as the table below.
Download these 6 declarations as CSV . FEMA source data is public domain; our derived presentation is CC0.
| DR# | Title | Type | Incident | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5598 | DEER CREEK FIRE | FM | Fire | 2025-07-12 |
| 5391 | PACK CREEK FIRE | FM | Fire | 2021-06-10 |
| 4525 | COVID-19 PANDEMIC | DR | Biological | 2020-04-04 |
| 3478 | COVID-19 | EM | Biological | 2020-03-13 |
| 3223 | HURRICANE KATRINA EVACUATION | EM | Coastal Storm | 2005-09-05 |
| 3024 | DROUGHT | EM | Drought | 1977-01-20 |
Storm Events in Utah
Statewide NOAA context only. PlainHazard does not currently attribute these state totals to San Juan County.
| Storm Type | Events | Fatalities | Injuries | Property Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunderstorm Wind | 1,382 | 3 | 7 | $2.2M |
| Flash Flood | 536 | 29 | 17 | $101.2M |
| High Wind | 496 | 4 | 60 | $12.7M |
| Heavy Snow | 488 | 1 | 2 | $2.4M |
| Winter Storm | 344 | 1 | 36 | $435.0K |
Source: NOAA Storm Events Database State-level aggregated data, 2015-2025
FEMA National Risk Index
Overall Risk
Very Low
Score: 26.8/100
Expected Annual Loss
Very Low
$5.0M/year
Social Vulnerability
Very High
Community Resilience
Very Low
Hazard Risk Breakdown
Landslide Relatively High
Avalanche Relatively High
Winter Weather Relatively Moderate
Wildfire Relatively Low
Lightning Relatively Moderate
Heat Wave Relatively Low
Drought Relatively Low
Earthquake Very Low
Riverine Flooding Very Low
Ice Storm Very Low
Volcanic Activity Very Low
Strong Wind Very Low
Tornado Very Low
Cold Wave Very Low
Hail Very Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) Ratings reflect relative scores among all US counties. Data: hazards.fema.gov/nri
The model's sharpest exposure here: Landslide
Landslide risk is a function of slope, soil and water, so it is usually a SECOND-ORDER hazard: it is triggered by the rainfall, snowmelt, wildfire burn scars or seismic shaking that came first. That is why a county can carry high landslide exposure whose realized damage is recorded under a flood or storm declaration instead.
Worth noting for San Juan County: the model and the federal record do NOT point at the same hazard. Landslide carries the highest modeled rating (Relatively High), while the county's declaration history is led by Biological. That is not a contradiction, the two measure genuinely different things. Declarations record federal ACTION, which requires damage costly enough to exceed state and local capacity; the Risk Index models EXPECTED annual loss across all 18 hazards whether or not any declaration ever followed. A hazard can be the county's largest modeled exposure and never once have driven a declaration.
National Risk Index ratings are modeled estimates of expected annual loss, not predictions of what will happen in any given year.
Data-matched county comparisons
San Juan County's closest FEMA peer: Broomfield County, CO
Comparisons use published FEMA declaration fields plus the National Risk Index composite for San Juan County. Record similarity, not a safety rating.
Closest declaration profiles
San Juan County shows 6 FEMA declarations, led by Biological.
Similar Major-disaster share
San Juan County: 1 of 6 of its declarations are Major.
Similar modeled NRI score
San Juan County: NRI composite 26.8 (Very Low).
How these peers are chosen
Cohort: Published U.S. county equivalents outside the source state or territory. Each metric keeps six ETL candidates; three unique destinations are shown after de-duplicating across axes. Declaration-volume ranking combines count and Major-disaster share and prefers a different leading incident type; Major-share ranks the Major fraction adjusted for volume; NRI ranks the modeled composite score only.
Retained FEMA snapshot feed for San Juan County - capture-dated entries only.
Compare beyond this state
Nationwide peers by NRI score & FEMA declaration volume
Two PlainHazard-derived comparison paths for San Juan County: nearest out-of-state National Risk Index composite and nearest FEMA declaration count (floor ≥5 records). Record similarity only, not a forecast of the next hazard.
Similar NRI composite
Nearest out-of-state counties by FEMA NRI score. This county: 26.8 (Very Low).
Similar declaration volume
Nearest out-of-state counties by FEMA declaration count. This county: 6. NRI peers are excluded so the two link sets stay distinct.
Further reading for this county
Understanding disaster data
FEMA's National Risk Index flags Landslide as the top modeled exposure here (Relatively High); the guide explains how that model differs from declaration counts.
More PlainHazard guides
- Most disaster-prone counties - U.S. counties ranked by FEMA declaration totals.
- Understanding disaster data - declarations vs storm events vs NRI scores.
- Preparing for natural disasters - household checklist (not county-specific advice).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most common disaster type in San Juan County?
The most common disaster type in San Juan County is Biological, with 2 declarations. Other disaster types include Fire (2), Coastal Storm (1), Drought (1).
How does San Juan County's FEMA declaration record compare with the Utah average?
The typical Utah county has 8.5 FEMA declaration records; San Juan County has 6, or 29% fewer. Against the national county mean of 20.7, this county's total is 71% lower. The comparison is historical and says nothing about the probability of a future event.
How many major FEMA disaster declarations has San Juan County received?
San Juan County has received 1 major disaster declaration, representing 17% of all 6 disaster declarations.
Does FEMA's top risk-rated hazard match the highest Expected Annual Loss in San Juan County?
No. In San Juan County, Landslide has the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively High), while Riverine Flooding leads Expected Annual Loss at about $1.6M. FEMA's risk score and dollar-loss model use different inputs, so the leaders often differ.
What was the worst year for disasters in San Juan County?
The most active year for disaster declarations in San Juan County was 2020, with 2 declarations. The county has FEMA disaster data spanning 1977 to 2025.
What is the FEMA National Risk Index score for San Juan County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, San Juan County, Utah has an overall risk score of 26.8 out of 100 (Very Low). On social vulnerability the county rates Very High; on community resilience, Very Low. The Expected Annual Loss (EAL) score is Very Low, representing $5.0M in annualized losses.
Which natural hazard poses the greatest risk to San Juan County?
FEMA's NRI data points to San Juan County as of the latest release is Landslide (risk rating: Relatively High). Other significant hazards include Avalanche (Relatively High) and Winter Weather (Relatively Moderate). FEMA's modeled event frequency puts landslide here at an average of 3.8 times per year. These scores are based on FEMA's analysis of historical event frequency, exposed assets, and community vulnerability.
Data Sources & Methodology
Disaster declaration data comes from the FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 API, which includes all federally declared disasters, emergencies, and fire management assistance grants.
Storm event data is sourced from the NOAA Storm Events Database (2015-2025), which tracks significant weather events including thunderstorms, tornadoes, floods, and winter storms.
This data is provided for informational purposes only. FEMA disaster declarations represent federal response actions and may not capture all local emergencies or weather events.
FEMA OpenFEMA declarations + NRI for San Juan County · vintage 2026-08-25 · Methodology · Utah profile · Verify with FEMA OpenFEMA · Verify with NOAA Storm Events