FEMA Records
11
Low volume
New Mexico · FEMA + NOAA + National Risk Index
San Juan County, NM
11 FEMA disaster declarations (1977-2024), with a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Moderate. Most common hazard: Fire.
- 11
- FEMA declarations
- 6
- Major disasters
- 88
- NRI risk · Relatively Moderate
- Fire
- Top hazard
The verdict
San Juan County has a nationally busy FEMA history: 11 declarations, more than 12% of counties in this registry. But the state comparison tempers that reading: the total is 12% below the New Mexico county mean. FEMA's separate National Risk Index places the county in the riskiest 12%; that score models loss and vulnerability rather than counting declarations.
- Riskiest 12%
- of U.S. counties for FEMA National Risk Index score
- Relatively Moderate
- FEMA National Risk Index rating
- 11
- FEMA declarations vs 21 national county avg
- 48
- NFIP flood insurance claims filed
FEMA's National Risk Index and its declaration registry are separate measures. This county's registry includes Fire Management Assistance (FM) records, which are not presidential disaster declarations, alongside Major Disaster (DR) and Emergency (EM) records.
FEMA OpenFEMA declaration desk
County FIPS 35045 · San Juan County 11 declarations · rank 2860/3,266
DECL-MID · MAJOR-MID · RANK-LOWER · PHOTO-FINISH · NRI-MID · ACT-HIGH · TYPE-LEAD · VS-ST-BELOW
- DECL-MID 11
- MAJOR-MID 55%
- RANK-LOWER #2,860
- PHOTO-FINISH Meeker
- NRI-MID 88
- ACT-HIGH High
- TYPE-LEAD Fire
- VS-ST-BELOW -12%
Nearest declaration peer: Meeker, MN (0 declaration gap)
FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 filing stamps for this county register. Read with this county → · New Mexico state profile
San Juan County among counties with fewer federal records
FEMA declaration records among San Juan County and nearest peers by total count
- Los Angeles · largest
Los Angeles · largest
88 declarations
- Davis · near 11
Davis · near
11 declarations
- Meeker · near 11
Meeker · near
11 declarations
- San Juan · this county 11
San Juan · this county
11 declarations
- Wasatch · near 11
Wasatch · near
11 declarations
- Ujelang · smallest 1
Ujelang · smallest
1 declarations
What this shows San Juan County carries 11 FEMA declaration records, ranked 2860 of 3,266 counties in this registry.
San Juan County versus quieter counties in this dataset
San Juan County among lower-declaration counties nationally
FEMA disaster declarations, all-time · San Juan County
11 12th percentile higher than 12% of 3,266 counties
Each bar is a band; taller bars hold more counties. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count, share, and where it sits relative to this entry.
Source FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 · 2026-08-25
San Juan County's FEMA Risk Index score
Which hazard drives modeled loss here?
FEMA's modeled annual dollar loss for San Juan County is led by Riverine Flooding (about $31.1M Expected Annual Loss, Historical Loss Ratio Relatively High), while Drought carries the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively High). EAL and risk score use different inputs; they need not agree.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025 release) - Expected Annual Loss vs composite risk rating by hazard.
What does San Juan County's hazard record show?
FEMA National Risk Index
This county sits among the highest-risk counties nationally on FEMA's National Risk Index, a composite score of 88.3/100 (Relatively Moderate). Expected Annual Loss is rated Relatively Low (roughly $44.1M in annualized losses). Social vulnerability reads Very High and community resilience Very Low, both critical modifiers of realized harm here. Of the 18 hazards FEMA models, Drought stands out as the sharpest exposure here, rated Relatively High. FEMA's modeled frequency puts that hazard at 108 modeled event-days per year here, based on 3,696 historical events on record.
Reading the federal records together
This county has a small entry in FEMA's NFIP paid-claims table: 48 claims and $537.4K paid in total. PlainHazard calls 1-49 claims a light registry record, a label for this dataset rather than a finding that flood exposure is low. A short claims history can also reflect insurance take-up, the period covered, or losses that were never insured.
Start with the state benchmark: a New Mexico county averages 12.5 federal declaration records, while San Juan County has 11. The gap is 12% below that mean. Fewer entries indicate a quieter history of recorded federal actions, not immunity from a hazard and not a prediction about what happens next.
48 /100
Historical Activity Index
Moderate historical activity
San Juan County, NM · PlainHazard-derived composite from federal records
This 0–100 index is an explicit PlainHazard composite from FEMA declaration history only on the county surface (this DB has no county-level NOAA damage row) . It is not FEMA's National Risk Index, not a forecast, and not a safety, insurance, or preparedness rating. Open the calculator · Methodology
FEMA Declarations (1953–present) Moderate
8/30
11 OpenFEMA declarations, full ingest window (0.5x national county average)
County Disaster Density Moderate
11/25
11 declarations (0.9x state county average of 12)
Major Disaster Share High
14/25
6 of 11 declarations are major disasters (55%)
Hazard Diversity Very High
15/20
6 different disaster types declared in San Juan County
FEMA NRI 8-hazard radar - San Juan County
How to read this radar
Each axis: NRI risk rating (Very Low-Very High) on a 0-100 scale. Rounder = broad exposure; spiky = one or two hazards dominate.
Major Disaster share
55%
Major-heavy
NRI risk score
88
Relatively Moderate
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Per-county per-hazard ratings, December 2025 release
How often does each hazard strike San Juan County?
FEMA's National Risk Index models a historical event count and an annualized frequency for each hazard type. Most hazards are expressed as modeled occurrences per year; FEMA expresses drought and heat-wave frequency as event-days per year. These modeled frequencies are not forecasts.
| Hazard | NRI Risk Rating | Recurrence |
|---|---|---|
| Drought | Relatively High | 108 modeled event-days per year |
| Lightning | Relatively High | an average of 50 times per year |
| Landslide | Relatively Moderate | an average of 1.7 times per year |
| Riverine Flooding | Relatively Moderate | an average of 1.4 times per year |
| Winter Weather | Relatively High | an average of 12 times per year |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | roughly once every 19 years |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | roughly once every 643 years |
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | roughly once every 2,242 years |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 1.8 modeled event-days per year |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | roughly once every 67 years |
| Avalanche | Very Low | roughly once every 100 years |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | roughly once every 17 years |
| Tornado | Very Low | roughly once every 7 years |
| Hail | Very Low | roughly once every 12 years |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Modeled annualized frequency; drought and heat wave use event-days/year, December 2025 release
Disaster Types
Fire 4
Biological 2
Flood 2
Hurricane 1
Severe Storm 1
Drought 1
What Fire declarations mean here
Fire is the most frequent declaration type on San Juan County's record, 36% of its declarations. Wildfire is the one hazard here with its own dedicated federal instrument: the Fire Management Assistance Grant, which appears in this data as an FM record. An FMAG can be authorised while a fire is still burning, on a timescale of hours, because its purpose is to reimburse the cost of fighting a fire that threatens to become a major disaster.
That distinction matters when comparing counties. An FM declaration is not a presidential major disaster declaration and does not carry the same assistance programmes, so a fire-heavy county's total is not directly comparable with a hurricane-heavy county's total unless the declaration types are separated, which is why they are listed separately on this page.
Declaration counts describe past federal action. They are a record of what was declared, not a forecast of future hazard probability.
Declaration Types
What DR / EM / FM mean
FEMA categorizes declarations as Major Disasters (DR), Emergencies (EM), or Fire Management Assistance (FM).
Major Disaster - 6 54.5%
of all 11 declarations
Emergency - 4 36.4%
of all 11 declarations
Fire Management - 1 9.1%
of all 11 declarations
FEMA Declarations Timeline
| Year | Declarations | |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 1 | |
| 2020 | 2 | |
| 2014 | 1 | |
| 2012 | 1 | |
| 2010 | 1 | |
| 2005 | 1 | |
| 2000 | 2 | |
| 1999 | 1 | |
| 1977 | 1 | |
Disaster Declarations
How the 11 FEMA declarations break into federal action codes (DR / EM / FM). Same DISTINCT grain as the table below.
Download these 11 declarations as CSV . FEMA source data is public domain; our derived presentation is CC0.
| DR# | Title | Type | Incident | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4795 | SOUTH FORK FIRE, SALT FIRE, AND FLOODING | DR | Fire | 2024-06-20 |
| 4529 | COVID-19 PANDEMIC | DR | Biological | 2020-04-05 |
| 3460 | COVID-19 | EM | Biological | 2020-03-13 |
| 4152 | SEVERE STORMS, FLOODING, AND MUDSLIDES | DR | Flood | 2013-10-29 |
| 2981 | BLANCO (CR 4901) FIRE | FM | Fire | 2012-06-18 |
| 1936 | SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING | DR | Flood | 2010-09-13 |
| 3229 | HURRICANE KATRINA EVACUATION | EM | Hurricane | 2005-09-07 |
| 1329 | SEVERE FOREST FIRE | DR | Fire | 2000-05-13 |
| 3154 | SEVERE FIRE THREATS | EM | Fire | 2000-05-10 |
| 1301 | SEVERE ICE STORMS, FLOODING AND HEAVY RAINS | DR | Severe Storm | 1999-09-22 |
| 3034 | DROUGHT | EM | Drought | 1977-03-02 |
Storm Events in New Mexico
Statewide NOAA context only. PlainHazard does not currently attribute these state totals to San Juan County.
| Storm Type | Events | Fatalities | Injuries | Property Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drought | 3,382 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| High Wind | 2,351 | 0 | 3 | $18.9M |
| Hail | 1,669 | 1 | 24 | $17.2M |
| Heavy Snow | 986 | 6 | 72 | $2.5M |
| Thunderstorm Wind | 952 | 1 | 13 | $25.1M |
Source: NOAA Storm Events Database State-level aggregated data, 2015-2025
NFIP Flood Insurance Claims
Total Claims
48
Total Paid
$537.4K
Avg Per Claim
$11.2K
Source: FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA Claims Data
FEMA National Risk Index
Overall Risk
Relatively Moderate
Score: 88.3/100
Expected Annual Loss
Relatively Low
$44.1M/year
Social Vulnerability
Very High
Community Resilience
Very Low
Hazard Risk Breakdown
Drought Relatively High
Lightning Relatively High
Landslide Relatively Moderate
Riverine Flooding Relatively Moderate
Winter Weather Relatively High
Cold Wave Relatively Moderate
Earthquake Relatively Low
Wildfire Relatively Low
Heat Wave Relatively Moderate
Ice Storm Relatively Low
Avalanche Very Low
Strong Wind Relatively Low
Tornado Very Low
Hail Very Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) Ratings reflect relative scores among all US counties. Data: hazards.fema.gov/nri
The model's sharpest exposure here: Drought
Drought is the slowest of the modeled hazards and the least visible: it does its damage to agriculture, water supply and soil over seasons rather than hours, so it rarely produces the kind of single-day damage that drives a disaster declaration. FEMA scores it in event-days per year rather than discrete events for exactly that reason.
Worth noting for San Juan County: the model and the federal record do NOT point at the same hazard. Drought carries the highest modeled rating (Relatively High), while the county's declaration history is led by Fire. That is not a contradiction, the two measure genuinely different things. Declarations record federal ACTION, which requires damage costly enough to exceed state and local capacity; the Risk Index models EXPECTED annual loss across all 18 hazards whether or not any declaration ever followed. A hazard can be the county's largest modeled exposure and never once have driven a declaration.
National Risk Index ratings are modeled estimates of expected annual loss, not predictions of what will happen in any given year.
Data-matched county comparisons
San Juan County's closest FEMA peer: Santa Cruz County, AZ
Comparisons use published FEMA declaration fields plus the National Risk Index composite for San Juan County. Record similarity, not a safety rating.
Similar modeled NRI score
San Juan County: NRI composite 88.3 (Relatively Moderate).
Similar Major-disaster share
San Juan County: 6 of 11 of its declarations are Major.
Closest declaration profiles
San Juan County shows 11 FEMA declarations, led by Fire.
How these peers are chosen
Cohort: Published U.S. county equivalents outside the source state or territory. Each metric keeps six ETL candidates; three unique destinations are shown after de-duplicating across axes. Declaration-volume ranking combines count and Major-disaster share and prefers a different leading incident type; Major-share ranks the Major fraction adjusted for volume; NRI ranks the modeled composite score only.
Retained FEMA snapshot feed for San Juan County - capture-dated entries only.
Compare beyond this state
Nationwide peers by NRI score & FEMA declaration volume
Two PlainHazard-derived comparison paths for San Juan County: nearest out-of-state National Risk Index composite and nearest FEMA declaration count (floor ≥5 records). Record similarity only, not a forecast of the next hazard.
Similar NRI composite
Nearest out-of-state counties by FEMA NRI score. This county: 88.3 (Relatively Moderate).
Similar declaration volume
Nearest out-of-state counties by FEMA declaration count. This county: 11. NRI peers are excluded so the two link sets stay distinct.
Further reading for this county
Most disaster-prone counties
With 11 FEMA declarations, San Juan County sits in the high-volume declaration band - see how that count ranks against other U.S. counties.
More PlainHazard guides
- Most disaster-prone counties - U.S. counties ranked by FEMA declaration totals.
- Understanding disaster data - declarations vs storm events vs NRI scores.
- Preparing for natural disasters - household checklist (not county-specific advice).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most common disaster type in San Juan County?
The most common disaster type in San Juan County is Fire, with 4 declarations. Other disaster types include Biological (2), Flood (2), Hurricane (1).
How does San Juan County's FEMA declaration record compare with the New Mexico average?
The typical New Mexico county has 12.5 FEMA declaration records; San Juan County has 11, or 12% fewer. Against the national county mean of 20.7, this county's total is 47% lower. The comparison is historical and says nothing about the probability of a future event.
How many major FEMA disaster declarations has San Juan County received?
San Juan County has received 6 major disaster declarations, representing 55% of all 11 disaster declarations.
How many flood insurance claims has San Juan County filed?
San Juan County has 48 National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims totaling $537.4K in payments, with an average of $11.2K per claim.
Does FEMA's top risk-rated hazard match the highest Expected Annual Loss in San Juan County?
No. In San Juan County, Drought has the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively High), while Riverine Flooding leads Expected Annual Loss at about $31.1M. FEMA's risk score and dollar-loss model use different inputs, so the leaders often differ.
What was the worst year for disasters in San Juan County?
The most active year for disaster declarations in San Juan County was 2000, with 2 declarations. The county has FEMA disaster data spanning 1977 to 2024.
What is the FEMA National Risk Index score for San Juan County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, San Juan County, New Mexico has an overall risk score of 88.3 out of 100 (Relatively Moderate). The county's social vulnerability rating is Very High and community resilience is Very Low. The Expected Annual Loss (EAL) score is Relatively Low, representing $44.1M in annualized losses.
Which natural hazard poses the greatest risk to San Juan County?
FEMA's NRI data points to San Juan County is Drought (risk rating: Relatively High). Other significant hazards include Lightning (Relatively High) and Landslide (Relatively Moderate). FEMA's modeled event frequency puts drought here at 108 modeled event-days per year, drawn from 3,696 historical events on record. FEMA derives these ratings from historical event frequency, the assets exposed, and the community's vulnerability profile.
Data Sources & Methodology
Disaster declaration data comes from the FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 API, which includes all federally declared disasters, emergencies, and fire management assistance grants.
Storm event data is sourced from the NOAA Storm Events Database (2015-2025), which tracks significant weather events including thunderstorms, tornadoes, floods, and winter storms.
Flood insurance data comes from the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA claims dataset.
This data is provided for informational purposes only. FEMA disaster declarations represent federal response actions and may not capture all local emergencies or weather events.
FEMA OpenFEMA declarations + NRI for San Juan County · vintage 2026-08-25 · Methodology · New Mexico profile · Verify with FEMA OpenFEMA · Verify with NOAA Storm Events