FEMA Records
19
Below median
Pennsylvania · FEMA + NOAA + National Risk Index
Northumberland County, PA
19 FEMA disaster declarations (1972-2020), with a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Low. Most common hazard: Flood.
- 19
- FEMA declarations
- 13
- Major disasters
- 79
- NRI risk · Relatively Low
- Flood
- Top hazard
The verdict
Two federal records point in the busier direction for Northumberland County. Its 19 FEMA declarations are 2% above the Pennsylvania county mean and exceed the count for 41% of the 3,266 counties in this registry. Separately, FEMA's National Risk Index places it in the riskiest 21%, based on modeled expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience.
- Riskiest 21%
- of U.S. counties for FEMA National Risk Index score
- Relatively Low
- FEMA National Risk Index rating
- 19
- FEMA declarations vs 21 national county avg
- 1,721
- NFIP flood insurance claims filed
FEMA's National Risk Index and its declaration registry are separate measures. This county's registry includes Major Disaster (DR) and Emergency (EM) records; an EM authorizes a narrower set of federal assistance than a DR.
How does Northumberland County compare?
Northumberland County vs. all counties in this dataset
FEMA disaster declarations, all-time
19 41st percentile higher than 41% of 3,266 counties
Each bar is a band; taller bars hold more counties. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count, share, and where it sits relative to this entry.
Source FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 · 2026-08-03
Northumberland County's FEMA Risk Index score
FEMA National Risk Index composite score vs. the Pennsylvania county average
Which hazard drives modeled loss here?
FEMA's modeled annual dollar loss for Northumberland County is led by Riverine Flooding (about $30.2M Expected Annual Loss, Historical Loss Ratio Relatively Moderate), while Winter Weather carries the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively High). EAL and risk score use different inputs; they need not agree.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025 release) - Expected Annual Loss vs composite risk rating by hazard.
What does Northumberland County's hazard record show?
Reading the federal records together
FEMA's NFIP table contains a substantial paid-claim history for this county: 1,721 claims and $24.2M in payments. PlainHazard labels 500 or more claims a heavy registry record; that is a reporting bucket, not an official FEMA risk grade. The average paid claim was $14.1K. NFIP totals exclude uninsured flood losses and do not measure how many properties currently carry a policy.
The declaration register points in the busier direction. Northumberland County's 19 federal records stand 2% above the Pennsylvania county mean of 18.6. That comparison describes how often federal action was recorded, including any Major Disaster, Emergency, and Fire Management entries shown on this page; it does not convert the count into future probability.
FEMA National Risk Index
This county sits among the highest-risk counties nationally on FEMA's National Risk Index, a composite score of 79.2/100 (Relatively Low). Expected Annual Loss is rated Relatively Low (roughly $37.3M in annualized losses). Social vulnerability reads Relatively Moderate and community resilience Very High, both critical modifiers of realized harm here. Of the 18 hazards FEMA models, Winter Weather stands out as the sharpest exposure here, rated Relatively High. FEMA's modeled frequency puts that hazard at an average of 13 times per year here, based on 243 historical events on record.
Declaration frequency
The FEMA register is busy by both local and national comparisons. It contains 19 entries for Northumberland County, including 13 Major Disaster records, 2% above the Pennsylvania county mean. Across the 48-year span, that works out to 0.4 declarations a year. Flood leads the file with 7 entries. Declaration type records the federal action taken, not every assistance program approved.
59 /100
Historical Activity Index
High historical activity
Northumberland County, PA · PlainHazard-derived composite from federal records
This 0–100 index is an explicit PlainHazard composite from FEMA declaration history only on the county surface (this DB has no county-level NOAA damage row) . It is not FEMA's National Risk Index, not a forecast, and not a safety, insurance, or preparedness rating. Open the calculator · Methodology
FEMA Declarations (1953–present) Moderate
14/30
19 OpenFEMA declarations, full ingest window (0.9x national county average)
County Disaster Density High
13/25
19 declarations (1.0x state county average of 19)
Major Disaster Share High
17/25
13 of 19 declarations are major disasters (68%)
Hazard Diversity Very High
15/20
6 different disaster types declared in Northumberland County
Historical Declaration Activity
Activity Band
High
vs. Pennsylvania Avg
+2%
State avg: 18.6
vs. National Avg
-8%
National avg: 20.7
Avg Per Year
0.4
Over 48 years
FEMA NRI 8-hazard radar - Northumberland County
How to read this radar
Each axis: NRI risk rating (Very Low-Very High) on a 0-100 scale. Rounder = broad exposure; spiky = one or two hazards dominate.
Major Disaster share
68%
Major-heavy
NRI risk score
79
Relatively Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Per-county per-hazard ratings, December 2025 release
How often does each hazard strike Northumberland County?
FEMA's National Risk Index models a historical event count and an annualized frequency for each hazard type. Most hazards are expressed as modeled occurrences per year; FEMA expresses drought and heat-wave frequency as event-days per year. These modeled frequencies are not forecasts.
| Hazard | NRI Risk Rating | Recurrence |
|---|---|---|
| Winter Weather | Relatively High | an average of 13 times per year |
| Riverine Flooding | Relatively Moderate | an average of 1.3 times per year |
| Strong Wind | Relatively High | an average of 3.6 times per year |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | roughly once every 2 years |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | roughly once every 18 years |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | an average of 34 times per year |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | roughly once every 1,272 years |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 2.8 modeled event-days per year |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | roughly once every 3 years |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | an average of 1.4 times per year |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | roughly once every 5 years |
| Avalanche | Very Low | roughly once every 100 years |
| Wildfire | Very Low | roughly once every 19,812 years |
| Hail | Very Low | an average of 1.8 times per year |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Modeled annualized frequency; drought and heat wave use event-days/year, December 2025 release
Disaster Types
Flood 7
Severe Storm 4
Hurricane 3
Biological 2
Snowstorm 2
Tornado 1
What Flood declarations mean here
Flood is the most frequent declaration type on Northumberland County's record, 37% of its declarations. Federal flood declarations cover two mechanisms that behave very differently: riverine flooding, which builds over days as a watershed drains and is usually forecast well in advance, and flash flooding, which can arrive in under an hour from rainfall that fell somewhere upstream.
Flood is also the one hazard class where a second federal dataset exists for the same events. The National Flood Insurance Program records what was actually paid on insured losses, so it measures a narrower thing than the declaration count: uninsured damage, and flooding outside mapped special flood hazard areas, never enters it. Reading the two together is more informative than either alone.
Declaration counts describe past federal action. They are a record of what was declared, not a forecast of future hazard probability.
Declaration Types
What DR / EM / FM mean
FEMA categorizes declarations as Major Disasters (DR), Emergencies (EM), or Fire Management Assistance (FM).
Major Disaster - 13 68.4%
of all 19 declarations
Emergency - 6 31.6%
of all 19 declarations
FEMA Declarations Timeline
| Year | Declarations | |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2 | |
| 2013 | 1 | |
| 2011 | 2 | |
| 2006 | 1 | |
| 2005 | 1 | |
| 2004 | 2 | |
| 2003 | 1 | |
| 1999 | 1 | |
| 1996 | 2 | |
| 1994 | 1 | |
| 1993 | 1 | |
| 1985 | 1 | |
| 1977 | 1 | |
| 1975 | 1 | |
| 1972 | 1 | |
Disaster Declarations
How the 19 FEMA declarations break into federal action codes (DR / EM / FM). Same DISTINCT grain as the table below.
Download these 19 declarations as CSV . FEMA source data is public domain; our derived presentation is CC0.
| DR# | Title | Type | Incident | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4506 | COVID-19 PANDEMIC | DR | Biological | 2020-03-30 |
| 3441 | COVID-19 | EM | Biological | 2020-03-13 |
| 3356 | HURRICANE SANDY | EM | Hurricane | 2012-10-29 |
| 4030 | TROPICAL STORM LEE | DR | Flood | 2011-09-12 |
| 3340 | REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM LEE | EM | Flood | 2011-09-08 |
| 1649 | SEVERE STORMS, FLOODING, AND MUDSLIDES | DR | Severe Storm | 2006-06-30 |
| 3235 | HURRICANE KATRINA | EM | Hurricane | 2005-09-10 |
| 1557 | TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN | DR | Hurricane | 2004-09-19 |
| 1555 | SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCES | DR | Severe Storm | 2004-09-19 |
| 3180 | SNOW | EM | Severe Storm | 2003-03-14 |
| 1298 | TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS PA | DR | Flood | 1999-09-22 |
| 1093 | SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1996-01-21 |
| 1085 | BLIZZARD OF 96 | DR | Snowstorm | 1996-01-13 |
| 1015 | SEVERE WINTER STORMS | DR | Severe Storm | 1994-03-10 |
| 3105 | SEVERE SNOWFALL & WINTER STORM | EM | Snowstorm | 1993-03-16 |
| 737 | SEVERE STORMS, HIGH WINDS & TORNADOES | DR | Tornado | 1985-06-03 |
| 523 | SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1976-10-20 |
| 485 | SEVERE STORMS, HEAVY RAINS & FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1975-09-26 |
| 340 | TROPICAL STORM AGNES | DR | Flood | 1972-06-23 |
Storm Events in Pennsylvania
Statewide NOAA context only. PlainHazard does not currently attribute these state totals to Northumberland County.
| Storm Type | Events | Fatalities | Injuries | Property Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunderstorm Wind | 9,976 | 18 | 114 | $115.5M |
| Flash Flood | 2,288 | 23 | 8 | $463.2M |
| Winter Weather | 1,670 | 23 | 268 | $566.0K |
| Hail | 1,400 | 0 | 0 | $2.6M |
| Winter Storm | 881 | 14 | 17 | $2.9M |
Source: NOAA Storm Events Database State-level aggregated data, 2015-2025
NFIP Flood Insurance Claims
Total Claims
1,721
Total Paid
$24.2M
Avg Per Claim
$14.1K
Source: FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA Claims Data
FEMA National Risk Index
Overall Risk
Relatively Low
Score: 79.2/100
Expected Annual Loss
Relatively Low
$37.3M/year
Social Vulnerability
Relatively Moderate
Community Resilience
Very High
Hazard Risk Breakdown
Winter Weather Relatively High
Riverine Flooding Relatively Moderate
Strong Wind Relatively High
Landslide Relatively Low
Hurricane Relatively Low
Lightning Relatively Moderate
Earthquake Relatively Low
Heat Wave Relatively Low
Ice Storm Relatively Low
Cold Wave Relatively Low
Tornado Relatively Low
Avalanche Very Low
Wildfire Very Low
Hail Very Low
Drought No Rating
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) Ratings reflect relative scores among all US counties. Data: hazards.fema.gov/nri
The model's sharpest exposure here: Winter Weather
Winter Weather in the model means the accumulation of snow and cold that disrupts rather than destroys: road closures, roof loads, burst pipes and lost heating. Its costs land heavily on transport and on households least able to absorb an interruption.
Worth noting for Northumberland County: the model and the federal record do NOT point at the same hazard. Winter Weather carries the highest modeled rating (Relatively High), while the county's declaration history is led by Flood. That is not a contradiction, the two measure genuinely different things. Declarations record federal ACTION, which requires damage costly enough to exceed state and local capacity; the Risk Index models EXPECTED annual loss across all 18 hazards whether or not any declaration ever followed. A hazard can be the county's largest modeled exposure and never once have driven a declaration.
National Risk Index ratings are modeled estimates of expected annual loss, not predictions of what will happen in any given year.
Data-matched county comparisons
Northumberland County's closest FEMA peer: Pulaski County, KY
Comparisons use published FEMA declaration fields plus the National Risk Index composite for Northumberland County. Record similarity, not a safety rating.
Similar modeled NRI score
Northumberland County: NRI composite 79.2 (Relatively Low).
Similar Major-disaster share
Northumberland County: 13 of 19 of its declarations are Major.
Closest declaration profiles
Northumberland County shows 19 FEMA declarations, led by Flood.
How these peers are chosen
Cohort: Published U.S. county equivalents outside the source state or territory. Each metric keeps six ETL candidates; three unique destinations are shown after de-duplicating across axes. Declaration-volume ranking combines count and Major-disaster share and prefers a different leading incident type; Major-share ranks the Major fraction adjusted for volume; NRI ranks the modeled composite score only.
Retained FEMA snapshot feed for Northumberland County - capture-dated entries only.
Further reading for this county
Understanding disaster data
Northumberland County's NFIP claims file (1,721 claims) and FEMA declaration history measure different federal records - this guide separates them from modeled NRI risk.
More PlainHazard guides
- Most disaster-prone counties - U.S. counties ranked by FEMA declaration totals.
- Understanding disaster data - declarations vs storm events vs NRI scores.
- Preparing for natural disasters - household checklist (not county-specific advice).
Related
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most common disaster type in Northumberland County?
The most common disaster type in Northumberland County is Flood, with 7 declarations. Other disaster types include Severe Storm (4), Hurricane (3), Biological (2).
How does Northumberland County's FEMA declaration record compare with the Pennsylvania average?
FEMA lists 19 declaration records for Northumberland County. That is 2% above the Pennsylvania county mean of 18.6. Its count is also 8% below the national county mean of 20.7. A larger declaration history records more federal actions; it is not a forecast of the county's next hazard.
How many major FEMA disaster declarations has Northumberland County received?
Northumberland County has received 13 major disaster declarations, representing 68% of all 19 disaster declarations.
How many flood insurance claims has Northumberland County filed?
Northumberland County has 1,721 National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims totaling $24.2M in payments, with an average of $14.1K per claim.
Does FEMA's top risk-rated hazard match the highest Expected Annual Loss in Northumberland County?
No. In Northumberland County, Winter Weather has the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively High), while Riverine Flooding leads Expected Annual Loss at about $30.2M. FEMA's risk score and dollar-loss model use different inputs, so the leaders often differ.
What was the worst year for disasters in Northumberland County?
The most active year for disaster declarations in Northumberland County was 1996, with 2 declarations. The county has FEMA disaster data spanning 1972 to 2020.
What is the FEMA National Risk Index score for Northumberland County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, Northumberland County, Pennsylvania has an overall risk score of 79.2 out of 100 (Relatively Low). The county's social vulnerability rating is Relatively Moderate and community resilience is Very High. The Expected Annual Loss (EAL) score is Relatively Low, representing $37.3M in annualized losses.
Which natural hazard poses the greatest risk to Northumberland County?
Based on FEMA NRI data, the highest-risk natural hazard in Northumberland County is Winter Weather (risk rating: Relatively High). Other significant hazards include Riverine Flooding (Relatively Moderate) and Strong Wind (Relatively High). FEMA's modeled event frequency puts winter weather here at an average of 13 times per year, drawn from 243 historical events on record. FEMA derives these ratings from historical event frequency, the assets exposed, and the community's vulnerability profile.
Data Sources & Methodology
Disaster declaration data comes from the FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 API, which includes all federally declared disasters, emergencies, and fire management assistance grants.
Storm event data is sourced from the NOAA Storm Events Database (2015-2025), which tracks significant weather events including thunderstorms, tornadoes, floods, and winter storms.
Flood insurance data comes from the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA claims dataset.
This data is provided for informational purposes only. FEMA disaster declarations represent federal response actions and may not capture all local emergencies or weather events.
What this means for Northumberland County
Northumberland County, PA has 19 federal declaration records, 2% more than the Pennsylvania county mean of 19; its history sits in PlainHazard's high activity band.
- Within this above-state-average declaration file, major disaster leads with 13 of 19 records; the category describes past federal action, not the next likely hazard. Pennsylvania overview
- The state benchmark and national rank point the same way: this count tops the Pennsylvania mean and the totals for 41% of 3,266 U.S. counties. Most-disaster rankings
- The large NFIP claims file and FEMA declaration history measure different federal records; the guide explains where they overlap and where they do not. Disaster-data guide
An above-average declaration count records past federal responses; it does not predict the next event. Current warnings come from the National Weather Service and local emergency officials.
PlainHazard derives this profile from FEMA's Disaster Declarations Summaries and National Risk Index data. The declaration comparison covers 3,266 U.S. counties and county equivalents in this database, refreshed as of 2026-08-03. Read our methodology - how this data is sourced, computed, and verified.
All federal data sources used on this page
- FEMA OpenFEMA, Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 - all federally-declared disasters for this county. fema.gov/openfema/disaster-declarations
- FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) - per-county per-hazard risk ratings and expected annual loss. hazards.fema.gov/nri
- NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database - state-level storm/severe-weather event records, 2015-2025. ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents
Data sourced from official public datasets. See our methodology for details. Retrieved and formatted by PlainHazard Editorial
Verify with FEMA → · Verify with FEMA NRI → · Verify with NOAA →
Every figure on PlainHazard is rendered directly from FEMA federal disaster data, no number is typed in by an editor. See our editorial standards & corrections policy, the methodology behind these numbers, or national statistics report, the data & editorial changelog, or report a data error.