FEMA Records
26
High volume
Missouri · FEMA + NOAA + National Risk Index
Shelby County, MO
26 FEMA disaster declarations (1973-2023), with a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Very Low. Most common hazard: Severe Storm.
- 26
- FEMA declarations
- 20
- Major disasters
- 16
- NRI risk · Very Low
- Severe Storm
- Top hazard
The verdict
Two federal records point in the busier direction for Shelby County. Its 26 FEMA declarations are 6% above the Missouri county mean and exceed the count for 75% of the 3,266 counties in this registry. Separately, FEMA's National Risk Index places it safer than 16%, based on modeled expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience.
- Safer than 16%
- of U.S. counties for FEMA National Risk Index score
- Very Low
- FEMA National Risk Index rating
- 26
- FEMA declarations vs 21 national county avg
- 2
- NFIP flood insurance claims filed
FEMA's National Risk Index and its declaration registry are separate measures. This county's registry includes Major Disaster (DR) and Emergency (EM) records; an EM authorizes a narrower set of federal assistance than a DR.
How does Shelby County compare?
Shelby County vs. all counties in this dataset
FEMA disaster declarations, all-time
26 Top 25% higher than 75% of 3,266 counties
Each bar is a band; taller bars hold more counties. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count, share, and where it sits relative to this entry.
Source FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 · 2026-08-03
Shelby County's FEMA Risk Index score
FEMA National Risk Index composite score vs. the Missouri county average
Which hazard drives modeled loss here?
FEMA's modeled annual dollar loss for Shelby County is led by Riverine Flooding (about $1.9M Expected Annual Loss, Historical Loss Ratio Relatively High), while Lightning carries the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively High). EAL and risk score use different inputs; they need not agree.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025 release) - Expected Annual Loss vs composite risk rating by hazard.
What does Shelby County's hazard record show?
Declaration frequency
The FEMA register is busy by both local and national comparisons. It contains 26 entries for Shelby County, including 20 Major Disaster records, 6% above the Missouri county mean. Across the 50-year span, that works out to 0.5 declarations a year. Severe Storm leads the file with 15 entries. Declaration type records the federal action taken, not every assistance program approved.
FEMA National Risk Index
This county's FEMA National Risk Index composite lands at 15.9/100 (Very Low), a modest reading against the rest of the country. Expected Annual Loss is rated Very Low (roughly $6.6M in annualized losses), tempered or compounded by a Relatively Low social-vulnerability score and Relatively High community-resilience score. Of the 18 hazards FEMA models, Lightning stands out as the sharpest exposure here, rated Relatively High. FEMA's modeled frequency puts that hazard at an average of 47 times per year here, based on 47,103 historical events on record.
Reading the federal records together
This county has a small entry in FEMA's NFIP paid-claims table: 2 claims and $80.6K paid in total. PlainHazard calls 1-49 claims a light registry record, a label for this dataset rather than a finding that flood exposure is low. A short claims history can also reflect insurance take-up, the period covered, or losses that were never insured.
The declaration register points in the busier direction. Shelby County's 26 federal records stand 6% above the Missouri county mean of 24.6. That comparison describes how often federal action was recorded, including any Major Disaster, Emergency, and Fire Management entries shown on this page; it does not convert the count into future probability.
69 /100
Historical Activity Index
High historical activity
Shelby County, MO · PlainHazard-derived composite from federal records
This 0–100 index is an explicit PlainHazard composite from FEMA declaration history only on the county surface (this DB has no county-level NOAA damage row) . It is not FEMA's National Risk Index, not a forecast, and not a safety, insurance, or preparedness rating. Open the calculator · Methodology
FEMA Declarations (1953–present) High
19/30
26 OpenFEMA declarations, full ingest window (1.3x national county average)
County Disaster Density High
13/25
26 declarations (1.1x state county average of 25)
Major Disaster Share Very High
19/25
20 of 26 declarations are major disasters (77%)
Hazard Diversity Very High
18/20
7 different disaster types declared in Shelby County
Historical Declaration Activity
Activity Band
High
vs. Missouri Avg
+6%
State avg: 24.6
vs. National Avg
+25%
National avg: 20.7
Avg Per Year
0.5
Over 50 years
FEMA NRI 8-hazard radar - Shelby County
How to read this radar
Each axis: NRI risk rating (Very Low-Very High) on a 0-100 scale. Rounder = broad exposure; spiky = one or two hazards dominate.
Major Disaster share
77%
Mostly major
NRI risk score
16
Very Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Per-county per-hazard ratings, December 2025 release
How often does each hazard strike Shelby County?
FEMA's National Risk Index models a historical event count and an annualized frequency for each hazard type. Most hazards are expressed as modeled occurrences per year; FEMA expresses drought and heat-wave frequency as event-days per year. These modeled frequencies are not forecasts.
| Hazard | NRI Risk Rating | Recurrence |
|---|---|---|
| Lightning | Relatively High | an average of 47 times per year |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 8.8 modeled event-days per year |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 7.3 modeled event-days per year |
| Earthquake | Very Low | roughly once every 587 years |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | roughly once every 4 years |
| Landslide | Very Low | roughly once every 8 years |
| Hail | Relatively Low | an average of 3.4 times per year |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | an average of 10 times per year |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | an average of 4.2 times per year |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | an average of 3.5 times per year |
| Wildfire | Very Low | roughly once every 1,584 years |
| Riverine Flooding | Very Low | roughly once every 1 years |
| Hurricane | Very Low | roughly once every 100 years |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | roughly once every 2 years |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Modeled annualized frequency; drought and heat wave use event-days/year, December 2025 release
Disaster Types
Severe Storm 15
Severe Ice Storm 3
Flood 3
Biological 2
Hurricane 1
Drought 1
Tornado 1
What Severe Storm declarations mean here
Severe Storm is the most frequent declaration type on Shelby County's record, 58% of its declarations. In FEMA's vocabulary this covers convective weather: thunderstorm straight-line winds, large hail, and the multi-day outbreaks that often carry embedded tornadoes. Activity is heaviest in spring and summer, though the season varies by region.
These events behave differently from a hurricane on paper. Damage tends to be distributed along a storm track rather than concentrated on a coastline, and a declaration typically follows an outbreak that crossed several counties over a few days, not a single point of impact. Because the qualifying threshold is the cost of uninsured public and individual losses rather than storm intensity, two similar storms can produce a declaration in one year and none in another.
Declaration counts describe past federal action. They are a record of what was declared, not a forecast of future hazard probability.
Declaration Types
What DR / EM / FM mean
FEMA categorizes declarations as Major Disasters (DR), Emergencies (EM), or Fire Management Assistance (FM).
Major Disaster - 20 76.9%
of all 26 declarations
Emergency - 6 23.1%
of all 26 declarations
FEMA Declarations Timeline
| Year | Declarations | |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 1 | |
| 2020 | 2 | |
| 2019 | 1 | |
| 2015 | 2 | |
| 2013 | 1 | |
| 2011 | 2 | |
| 2010 | 1 | |
| 2009 | 3 | |
| 2008 | 2 | |
| 2005 | 1 | |
| 2004 | 1 | |
| 2003 | 1 | |
| 2002 | 2 | |
| 1993 | 1 | |
| 1987 | 1 | |
Show 4 earlier declaration years
| 1976 | 1 | |
| 1975 | 1 | |
| 1974 | 1 | |
| 1973 | 1 | |
Disaster Declarations
How the 26 FEMA declarations break into federal action codes (DR / EM / FM). Same DISTINCT grain as the table below.
Download these 26 declarations as CSV . FEMA source data is public domain; our derived presentation is CC0.
| DR# | Title | Type | Incident | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4741 | SEVERE STORMS, STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, TORNADOES, AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2023-09-21 |
| 4490 | COVID-19 PANDEMIC | DR | Biological | 2020-03-26 |
| 3482 | COVID-19 | EM | Biological | 2020-03-13 |
| 4451 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2019-07-09 |
| 4238 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2015-08-07 |
| 4200 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2014-10-31 |
| 4130 | SEVERE STORMS, STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, TORNADOES, AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2013-07-18 |
| 1961 | SEVERE WINTER STORM AND SNOWSTORM | DR | Severe Storm | 2011-03-23 |
| 3317 | SEVERE WINTER STORM | EM | Severe Storm | 2011-02-03 |
| 1934 | SEVERE STORMS, FLOODING, AND TORNADOES | DR | Severe Storm | 2010-08-17 |
| 1847 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2009-06-19 |
| 3303 | SEVERE WINTER STORM | EM | Severe Ice Storm | 2009-01-30 |
| 1809 | SEVERE STORMS, FLOODING, AND A TORNADO | DR | Severe Storm | 2008-11-13 |
| 1773 | SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2008-06-25 |
| 3281 | SEVERE WINTER STORMS | EM | Severe Ice Storm | 2007-12-12 |
| 3232 | HURRICANE KATRINA EVACUATION | EM | Hurricane | 2005-09-10 |
| 1524 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2004-06-11 |
| 1463 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2003-05-06 |
| 1412 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2002-05-06 |
| 1403 | SEVERE WINTER ICE STORM | DR | Severe Ice Storm | 2002-02-06 |
Show 6 earlier declaration records
| DR# | Title | Type | Incident | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 995 | SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1993-07-09 |
| 779 | SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1986-10-14 |
| 3017 | DROUGHT | EM | Drought | 1976-09-24 |
| 466 | TORNADOES, HIGH WINDS & HAIL | DR | Tornado | 1975-05-03 |
| 407 | SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1973-11-01 |
| 372 | HEAVY RAINS, TORNADOES & FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 1973-04-19 |
Storm Events in Missouri
Statewide NOAA context only. PlainHazard does not currently attribute these state totals to Shelby County.
| Storm Type | Events | Fatalities | Injuries | Property Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunderstorm Wind | 6,391 | 30 | 52 | $63.4M |
| Hail | 4,411 | 0 | 1 | $86.1M |
| Flash Flood | 2,399 | 47 | 14 | $406.6M |
| Flood | 1,810 | 25 | 7 | $304.6M |
| Drought | 1,033 | 0 | 350 | $53.6M |
Source: NOAA Storm Events Database State-level aggregated data, 2015-2025
NFIP Flood Insurance Claims
Total Claims
2
Total Paid
$80.6K
Avg Per Claim
$40.3K
Source: FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA Claims Data
FEMA National Risk Index
Overall Risk
Very Low
Score: 15.9/100
Expected Annual Loss
Very Low
$6.6M/year
Social Vulnerability
Relatively Low
Community Resilience
Relatively High
Hazard Risk Breakdown
Lightning Relatively High
Heat Wave Relatively Moderate
Drought Relatively Low
Earthquake Very Low
Tornado Relatively Low
Landslide Very Low
Hail Relatively Low
Winter Weather Relatively Low
Cold Wave Relatively Low
Strong Wind Relatively Low
Wildfire Very Low
Riverine Flooding Very Low
Hurricane Very Low
Ice Storm Very Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) Ratings reflect relative scores among all US counties. Data: hazards.fema.gov/nri
The model's sharpest exposure here: Lightning
Lightning is modeled as a high-frequency, low-per-event hazard: strike counts are large, but each strike affects a very small area. Its aggregate cost accumulates through structure fires, electrical and electronic damage, and it is one of the few hazards whose risk is essentially continuous through the season rather than episodic.
For Shelby County the two measures on this page point the same way: Lightning is the county's highest-rated modeled hazard (Relatively High), and Severe Storm declarations also lead its federal record. Where the model and the declaration history agree, the reading is comparatively straightforward, the hazard is both expected and repeatedly realised.
National Risk Index ratings are modeled estimates of expected annual loss, not predictions of what will happen in any given year.
Data-matched county comparisons
Shelby County's closest FEMA peer: Emmons County, ND
Comparisons use published FEMA declaration fields plus the National Risk Index composite for Shelby County. Record similarity, not a safety rating.
Closest declaration profiles
Shelby County shows 26 FEMA declarations, led by Severe Storm.
Similar Major-disaster share
Shelby County: 20 of 26 of its declarations are Major.
Similar modeled NRI score
Shelby County: NRI composite 15.9 (Very Low).
How these peers are chosen
Cohort: Published U.S. county equivalents outside the source state or territory. Each metric keeps six ETL candidates; three unique destinations are shown after de-duplicating across axes. Declaration-volume ranking combines count and Major-disaster share and prefers a different leading incident type; Major-share ranks the Major fraction adjusted for volume; NRI ranks the modeled composite score only.
Retained FEMA snapshot feed for Shelby County - capture-dated entries only.
Further reading for this county
Most disaster-prone counties
With 26 FEMA declarations, Shelby County sits in the high-volume declaration band - see how that count ranks against other U.S. counties.
More PlainHazard guides
- Most disaster-prone counties - U.S. counties ranked by FEMA declaration totals.
- Understanding disaster data - declarations vs storm events vs NRI scores.
- Preparing for natural disasters - household checklist (not county-specific advice).
Related
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most common disaster type in Shelby County?
The most common disaster type in Shelby County is Severe Storm, with 15 declarations. Other disaster types include Severe Ice Storm (3), Flood (3), Biological (2).
How does Shelby County's FEMA declaration record compare with the Missouri average?
FEMA lists 26 declaration records for Shelby County. That is 6% above the Missouri county mean of 24.6. Its count is also 25% above the national county mean of 20.7. A larger declaration history records more federal actions; it is not a forecast of the county's next hazard.
How many major FEMA disaster declarations has Shelby County received?
Shelby County has received 20 major disaster declarations, representing 77% of all 26 disaster declarations.
How many flood insurance claims has Shelby County filed?
Shelby County has 2 National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims totaling $80.6K in payments, with an average of $40.3K per claim.
Does FEMA's top risk-rated hazard match the highest Expected Annual Loss in Shelby County?
No. In Shelby County, Lightning has the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively High), while Riverine Flooding leads Expected Annual Loss at about $1.9M. FEMA's risk score and dollar-loss model use different inputs, so the leaders often differ.
What was the worst year for disasters in Shelby County?
The most active year for disaster declarations in Shelby County was 2009, with 3 declarations. The county has FEMA disaster data spanning 1973 to 2023.
What is the FEMA National Risk Index score for Shelby County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, Shelby County, Missouri has an overall risk score of 15.9 out of 100 (Very Low). On social vulnerability the county rates Relatively Low; on community resilience, Relatively High. The Expected Annual Loss (EAL) score is Very Low, representing $6.6M in annualized losses.
Which natural hazard poses the greatest risk to Shelby County?
The top hazard flagged by FEMA's NRI for Shelby County as of the latest release is Lightning (risk rating: Relatively High). Other significant hazards include Heat Wave (Relatively Moderate) and Drought (Relatively Low). FEMA's modeled event frequency puts lightning here at an average of 47 times per year, drawn from 47,103 historical events on record. These scores are based on FEMA's analysis of historical event frequency, exposed assets, and community vulnerability.
Data Sources & Methodology
Disaster declaration data comes from the FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 API, which includes all federally declared disasters, emergencies, and fire management assistance grants.
Storm event data is sourced from the NOAA Storm Events Database (2015-2025), which tracks significant weather events including thunderstorms, tornadoes, floods, and winter storms.
Flood insurance data comes from the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA claims dataset.
This data is provided for informational purposes only. FEMA disaster declarations represent federal response actions and may not capture all local emergencies or weather events.
What this means for Shelby County
Shelby County, MO has 26 federal declaration records, 6% more than the Missouri county mean of 25; its history sits in PlainHazard's high activity band.
- Within this above-state-average declaration file, major disaster leads with 20 of 26 records; the category describes past federal action, not the next likely hazard. Missouri overview
- The state benchmark and national rank point the same way: this count tops the Missouri mean and the totals for 75% of 3,266 U.S. counties. Most-disaster rankings
- A short NFIP claims file cannot establish low flood exposure; the data guide explains the limits of each federal measure. Disaster-data guide
An above-average declaration count records past federal responses; it does not predict the next event. Current warnings come from the National Weather Service and local emergency officials.
PlainHazard derives this profile from FEMA's Disaster Declarations Summaries and National Risk Index data. The declaration comparison covers 3,266 U.S. counties and county equivalents in this database, refreshed as of 2026-08-03. Read our methodology - how this data is sourced, computed, and verified.
All federal data sources used on this page
- FEMA OpenFEMA, Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 - all federally-declared disasters for this county. fema.gov/openfema/disaster-declarations
- FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) - per-county per-hazard risk ratings and expected annual loss. hazards.fema.gov/nri
- NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database - state-level storm/severe-weather event records, 2015-2025. ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents
Data sourced from official public datasets. See our methodology for details. Retrieved and formatted by PlainHazard Editorial
Verify with FEMA → · Verify with FEMA NRI → · Verify with NOAA →
Every figure on PlainHazard is rendered directly from FEMA federal disaster data, no number is typed in by an editor. See our editorial standards & corrections policy, the methodology behind these numbers, or national statistics report, the data & editorial changelog, or report a data error.