FEMA Records
12
Low volume
Tennessee · FEMA + NOAA + National Risk Index
Sullivan County, TN
12 FEMA disaster declarations (1973-2026), with a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Low. Most common hazard: Severe Storm.
- 12
- FEMA declarations
- 7
- Major disasters
- 71
- NRI risk · Relatively Low
- Severe Storm
- Top hazard
The verdict
Sullivan County has a nationally busy FEMA history: 12 declarations, more than 14% of counties in this registry. But the state comparison tempers that reading: the total is 44% below the Tennessee county mean. FEMA's separate National Risk Index places the county in the riskiest 29%; that score models loss and vulnerability rather than counting declarations.
- Riskiest 29%
- of U.S. counties for FEMA National Risk Index score
- Relatively Low
- FEMA National Risk Index rating
- 12
- FEMA declarations vs 21 national county avg
- 197
- NFIP flood insurance claims filed
FEMA's National Risk Index and its declaration registry are separate measures. This county's registry includes Major Disaster (DR) and Emergency (EM) records; an EM authorizes a narrower set of federal assistance than a DR.
FEMA OpenFEMA declaration desk
County FIPS 47163 · Sullivan County 12 declarations · rank 2754/3,266
DECL-MID · MAJOR-MID · RANK-LOWER · PHOTO-FINISH · NRI-LOW · ACT-HIGH · TYPE-LEAD · VS-ST-BELOW
- DECL-MID 12
- MAJOR-MID 58%
- RANK-LOWER #2,754
- PHOTO-FINISH Johnson
- NRI-LOW 71
- ACT-HIGH High
- TYPE-LEAD Severe Storm
- VS-ST-BELOW -44%
Nearest declaration peer: Johnson, KS (0 declaration gap)
FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 filing stamps for this county register. Read with this county → · Tennessee state profile
Sullivan County among counties with fewer federal records
FEMA declaration records among Sullivan County and nearest peers by total count
- Los Angeles · largest
Los Angeles · largest
88 declarations
- Crane · near 12
Crane · near
12 declarations
- Johnson · near 12
Johnson · near
12 declarations
- Seward · near 12
Seward · near
12 declarations
- Sullivan · this county 12
Sullivan · this county
12 declarations
- Ujelang · smallest 1
Ujelang · smallest
1 declarations
What this shows Sullivan County carries 12 FEMA declaration records, ranked 2754 of 3,266 counties in this registry.
Sullivan County versus quieter counties in this dataset
Sullivan County among lower-declaration counties nationally
FEMA disaster declarations, all-time · Sullivan County
12 14th percentile higher than 14% of 3,266 counties
Each bar is a band; taller bars hold more counties. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count, share, and where it sits relative to this entry.
Source FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 · 2026-08-25
Sullivan County's FEMA Risk Index score
Which hazard drives modeled loss here?
FEMA's modeled annual dollar loss for Sullivan County is led by Riverine Flooding (about $20.2M Expected Annual Loss, Historical Loss Ratio Relatively Moderate), while Landslide carries the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively Moderate). EAL and risk score use different inputs; they need not agree.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025 release) - Expected Annual Loss vs composite risk rating by hazard.
What does Sullivan County's hazard record show?
Reading the federal records together
The NFIP claims register shows a middle-volume loss record here: 197 paid claims, totaling $2.0M. PlainHazard uses 50-499 claims for this descriptive band; FEMA does not publish it as a safety or coverage category. The $10.0K average describes payments on recorded claims only, leaving uninsured damage and properties without a claim outside the measure.
Start with the state benchmark: a Tennessee county averages 21.4 federal declaration records, while Sullivan County has 12. The gap is 44% below that mean. Fewer entries indicate a quieter history of recorded federal actions, not immunity from a hazard and not a prediction about what happens next.
FEMA National Risk Index
This county carries a high composite score on FEMA's National Risk Index, 71.5/100, rated Relatively Low. Its Expected Annual Loss rating is Relatively Low (roughly $28.5M in annualized losses), and a Relatively Moderate social-vulnerability profile combined with Relatively Moderate community resilience shapes how much of that raw exposure becomes realized harm. Among the 18 modeled hazards, Landslide carries the county's highest rating, a mid-range Relatively Moderate. FEMA's modeled frequency puts that hazard at an average of 1.3 times per year here.
51 /100
Historical Activity Index
High historical activity
Sullivan County, TN · PlainHazard-derived composite from federal records
This 0–100 index is an explicit PlainHazard composite from FEMA declaration history only on the county surface (this DB has no county-level NOAA damage row) . It is not FEMA's National Risk Index, not a forecast, and not a safety, insurance, or preparedness rating. Open the calculator · Methodology
FEMA Declarations (1953–present) Moderate
9/30
12 OpenFEMA declarations, full ingest window (0.6x national county average)
County Disaster Density Moderate
7/25
12 declarations (0.6x state county average of 21)
Major Disaster Share High
15/25
7 of 12 declarations are major disasters (58%)
Hazard Diversity Very High
20/20
8 different disaster types declared in Sullivan County
FEMA NRI 8-hazard radar - Sullivan County
How to read this radar
Each axis: NRI risk rating (Very Low-Very High) on a 0-100 scale. Rounder = broad exposure; spiky = one or two hazards dominate.
Major Disaster share
58%
Major-heavy
NRI risk score
71
Relatively Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Per-county per-hazard ratings, December 2025 release
How often does each hazard strike Sullivan County?
FEMA's National Risk Index models a historical event count and an annualized frequency for each hazard type. Most hazards are expressed as modeled occurrences per year; FEMA expresses drought and heat-wave frequency as event-days per year. These modeled frequencies are not forecasts.
| Hazard | NRI Risk Rating | Recurrence |
|---|---|---|
| Landslide | Relatively Moderate | an average of 1.3 times per year |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | roughly once every 460 years |
| Strong Wind | Relatively High | an average of 3.2 times per year |
| Lightning | Relatively High | an average of 50 times per year |
| Riverine Flooding | Relatively Moderate | an average of 1.3 times per year |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | an average of 7.7 times per year |
| Hurricane | Very Low | roughly once every 71 years |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | roughly once every 1 years |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | roughly once every 15 years |
| Wildfire | Very Low | roughly once every 1,104 years |
| Hail | Relatively Low | an average of 3 times per year |
| Drought | Very Low | 14 modeled event-days per year |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | roughly once every 14 years |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.1 modeled event-days per year |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Modeled annualized frequency; drought and heat wave use event-days/year, December 2025 release
Disaster Types
Severe Storm 3
Winter Storm 2
Biological 2
Tropical Storm 1
Hurricane 1
Snowstorm 1
Tornado 1
Flood 1
What Severe Storm declarations mean here
Severe Storm is the most frequent declaration type on Sullivan County's record, 25% of its declarations. In FEMA's vocabulary this covers convective weather: thunderstorm straight-line winds, large hail, and the multi-day outbreaks that often carry embedded tornadoes. Activity is heaviest in spring and summer, though the season varies by region.
These events behave differently from a hurricane on paper. Damage tends to be distributed along a storm track rather than concentrated on a coastline, and a declaration typically follows an outbreak that crossed several counties over a few days, not a single point of impact. Because the qualifying threshold is the cost of uninsured public and individual losses rather than storm intensity, two similar storms can produce a declaration in one year and none in another.
Declaration counts describe past federal action. They are a record of what was declared, not a forecast of future hazard probability.
Declaration Types
What DR / EM / FM mean
FEMA categorizes declarations as Major Disasters (DR), Emergencies (EM), or Fire Management Assistance (FM).
Major Disaster - 7 58.3%
of all 12 declarations
Emergency - 5 41.7%
of all 12 declarations
FEMA Declarations Timeline
| Year | Declarations | |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2 | |
| 2025 | 2 | |
| 2020 | 2 | |
| 2011 | 1 | |
| 2005 | 1 | |
| 1998 | 1 | |
| 1993 | 1 | |
| 1974 | 1 | |
| 1973 | 1 | |
Disaster Declarations
How the 12 FEMA declarations break into federal action codes (DR / EM / FM). Same DISTINCT grain as the table below.
Download these 12 declarations as CSV . FEMA source data is public domain; our derived presentation is CC0.
| DR# | Title | Type | Incident | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4898 | SEVERE WINTER STORM | DR | Winter Storm | 2026-02-06 |
| 3635 | SEVERE WINTER STORM | EM | Winter Storm | 2026-01-24 |
| 3625 | SEVERE STORMS, STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, TORNADOES, AND FLOODING | EM | Severe Storm | 2025-04-02 |
| 4832 | TROPICAL STORM HELENE | DR | Tropical Storm | 2024-10-02 |
| 4514 | COVID-19 PANDEMIC | DR | Biological | 2020-04-02 |
| 3473 | COVID-19 | EM | Biological | 2020-03-13 |
| 1974 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2011-05-01 |
| 3217 | HURRICANE KATRINA EVACUATION | EM | Hurricane | 2005-09-05 |
| 1197 | SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 1998-01-13 |
| 3095 | SEVERE SNOWFALL, WINTER STORM | EM | Snowstorm | 1993-03-14 |
| 424 | TORNADOES | DR | Tornado | 1974-04-04 |
| 366 | HEAVY RAINS & FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1973-03-21 |
Storm Events in Tennessee
Statewide NOAA context only. PlainHazard does not currently attribute these state totals to Sullivan County.
| Storm Type | Events | Fatalities | Injuries | Property Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunderstorm Wind | 6,558 | 22 | 58 | $107.0M |
| Hail | 1,690 | 0 | 0 | $545.5K |
| Heat | 1,343 | 9 | 15 | $0 |
| Flash Flood | 1,264 | 55 | 3 | $334.4M |
| Winter Weather | 1,088 | 5 | 0 | $261.0K |
Source: NOAA Storm Events Database State-level aggregated data, 2015-2025
NFIP Flood Insurance Claims
Total Claims
197
Total Paid
$2.0M
Avg Per Claim
$10.0K
Source: FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA Claims Data
FEMA National Risk Index
Overall Risk
Relatively Low
Score: 71.5/100
Expected Annual Loss
Relatively Low
$28.5M/year
Social Vulnerability
Relatively Moderate
Community Resilience
Relatively Moderate
Hazard Risk Breakdown
Landslide Relatively Moderate
Earthquake Relatively Low
Strong Wind Relatively High
Lightning Relatively High
Riverine Flooding Relatively Moderate
Winter Weather Relatively Low
Hurricane Very Low
Cold Wave Relatively Low
Tornado Relatively Low
Wildfire Very Low
Hail Relatively Low
Drought Very Low
Ice Storm Relatively Low
Heat Wave Very Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) Ratings reflect relative scores among all US counties. Data: hazards.fema.gov/nri
The model's sharpest exposure here: Landslide
Landslide risk is a function of slope, soil and water, so it is usually a SECOND-ORDER hazard: it is triggered by the rainfall, snowmelt, wildfire burn scars or seismic shaking that came first. That is why a county can carry high landslide exposure whose realized damage is recorded under a flood or storm declaration instead.
Worth noting for Sullivan County: the model and the federal record do NOT point at the same hazard. Landslide carries the highest modeled rating (Relatively Moderate), while the county's declaration history is led by Severe Storm. That is not a contradiction, the two measure genuinely different things. Declarations record federal ACTION, which requires damage costly enough to exceed state and local capacity; the Risk Index models EXPECTED annual loss across all 18 hazards whether or not any declaration ever followed. A hazard can be the county's largest modeled exposure and never once have driven a declaration.
National Risk Index ratings are modeled estimates of expected annual loss, not predictions of what will happen in any given year.
Data-matched county comparisons
Sullivan County's closest FEMA peer: Marion County, WV
Comparisons use published FEMA declaration fields plus the National Risk Index composite for Sullivan County. Record similarity, not a safety rating.
Similar modeled NRI score
Sullivan County: NRI composite 71.5 (Relatively Low).
Similar Major-disaster share
Sullivan County: 7 of 12 of its declarations are Major.
Closest declaration profiles
Sullivan County shows 12 FEMA declarations, led by Severe Storm.
How these peers are chosen
Cohort: Published U.S. county equivalents outside the source state or territory. Each metric keeps six ETL candidates; three unique destinations are shown after de-duplicating across axes. Declaration-volume ranking combines count and Major-disaster share and prefers a different leading incident type; Major-share ranks the Major fraction adjusted for volume; NRI ranks the modeled composite score only.
Retained FEMA snapshot feed for Sullivan County - capture-dated entries only.
Compare beyond this state
Nationwide peers by NRI score & FEMA declaration volume
Two PlainHazard-derived comparison paths for Sullivan County: nearest out-of-state National Risk Index composite and nearest FEMA declaration count (floor ≥5 records). Record similarity only, not a forecast of the next hazard.
Similar NRI composite
Nearest out-of-state counties by FEMA NRI score. This county: 71.5 (Relatively Low).
Similar declaration volume
Nearest out-of-state counties by FEMA declaration count. This county: 12. NRI peers are excluded so the two link sets stay distinct.
Further reading for this county
Understanding disaster data
Sullivan County's NFIP claims file (197 claims) and FEMA declaration history measure different federal records - this guide separates them from modeled NRI risk.
More PlainHazard guides
- Most disaster-prone counties - U.S. counties ranked by FEMA declaration totals.
- Understanding disaster data - declarations vs storm events vs NRI scores.
- Preparing for natural disasters - household checklist (not county-specific advice).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most common disaster type in Sullivan County?
The most common disaster type in Sullivan County is Severe Storm, with 3 declarations. Other disaster types include Winter Storm (2), Biological (2), Tropical Storm (1).
How does Sullivan County's FEMA declaration record compare with the Tennessee average?
The typical Tennessee county has 21.4 FEMA declaration records; Sullivan County has 12, or 44% fewer. Against the national county mean of 20.7, this county's total is 42% lower. The comparison is historical and says nothing about the probability of a future event.
How many major FEMA disaster declarations has Sullivan County received?
Sullivan County has received 7 major disaster declarations, representing 58% of all 12 disaster declarations.
How many flood insurance claims has Sullivan County filed?
Sullivan County has 197 National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims totaling $2.0M in payments, with an average of $10.0K per claim.
Does FEMA's top risk-rated hazard match the highest Expected Annual Loss in Sullivan County?
No. In Sullivan County, Landslide has the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively Moderate), while Riverine Flooding leads Expected Annual Loss at about $20.2M. FEMA's risk score and dollar-loss model use different inputs, so the leaders often differ.
What was the worst year for disasters in Sullivan County?
The most active year for disaster declarations in Sullivan County was 2020, with 2 declarations. The county has FEMA disaster data spanning 1973 to 2026.
What is the FEMA National Risk Index score for Sullivan County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, Sullivan County, Tennessee has an overall risk score of 71.5 out of 100 (Relatively Low). On social vulnerability the county rates Relatively Moderate; on community resilience, Relatively Moderate. The Expected Annual Loss (EAL) score is Relatively Low, representing $28.5M in annualized losses.
Which natural hazard poses the greatest risk to Sullivan County?
FEMA's NRI data points to Sullivan County is Landslide (risk rating: Relatively Moderate). Other significant hazards include Earthquake (Relatively Low) and Strong Wind (Relatively High). FEMA's modeled event frequency puts landslide here at an average of 1.3 times per year. These scores are based on FEMA's analysis of historical event frequency, exposed assets, and community vulnerability.
Data Sources & Methodology
Disaster declaration data comes from the FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 API, which includes all federally declared disasters, emergencies, and fire management assistance grants.
Storm event data is sourced from the NOAA Storm Events Database (2015-2025), which tracks significant weather events including thunderstorms, tornadoes, floods, and winter storms.
Flood insurance data comes from the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA claims dataset.
This data is provided for informational purposes only. FEMA disaster declarations represent federal response actions and may not capture all local emergencies or weather events.
FEMA OpenFEMA declarations + NRI for Sullivan County · vintage 2026-08-25 · Methodology · Tennessee profile · Verify with FEMA OpenFEMA · Verify with NOAA Storm Events