FEMA Records
25
High volume
Arkansas · FEMA + NOAA + National Risk Index
Clay County, AR
25 FEMA disaster declarations (1969-2026), with a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Low. Most common hazard: Severe Storm.
- 25
- FEMA declarations
- 19
- Major disasters
- 72
- NRI risk · Relatively Low
- Severe Storm
- Top hazard
The verdict
Two federal records point in the busier direction for Clay County. Its 25 FEMA declarations are 3% above the Arkansas county mean and exceed the count for 71% of the 3,266 counties in this registry. Separately, FEMA's National Risk Index places it in the riskiest 28%, based on modeled expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience.
- Riskiest 28%
- of U.S. counties for FEMA National Risk Index score
- Relatively Low
- FEMA National Risk Index rating
- 25
- FEMA declarations vs 21 national county avg
- 180
- NFIP flood insurance claims filed
FEMA's National Risk Index and its declaration registry are separate measures. This county's registry includes Major Disaster (DR) and Emergency (EM) records; an EM authorizes a narrower set of federal assistance than a DR.
How does Clay County compare?
Clay County vs. all counties in this dataset
FEMA disaster declarations, all-time
25 Top 29% higher than 71% of 3,266 counties
Each bar is a band; taller bars hold more counties. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count, share, and where it sits relative to this entry.
Source FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 · 2026-08-03
Clay County's FEMA Risk Index score
FEMA National Risk Index composite score vs. the Arkansas county average
Which hazard drives modeled loss here?
FEMA's modeled annual dollar loss for Clay County is led by Earthquake (about $7.6M Expected Annual Loss, Historical Loss Ratio Very High), while Drought carries the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively High). EAL and risk score use different inputs; they need not agree.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025 release) - Expected Annual Loss vs composite risk rating by hazard.
What does Clay County's hazard record show?
Reading the federal records together
The NFIP claims register shows a middle-volume loss record here: 180 paid claims, totaling $4.1M. PlainHazard uses 50-499 claims for this descriptive band; FEMA does not publish it as a safety or coverage category. The $23.0K average describes payments on recorded claims only, leaving uninsured damage and properties without a claim outside the measure.
The declaration register points in the busier direction. Clay County's 25 federal records stand 3% above the Arkansas county mean of 24.2. That comparison describes how often federal action was recorded, including any Major Disaster, Emergency, and Fire Management entries shown on this page; it does not convert the count into future probability.
FEMA National Risk Index
This county carries a high composite score on FEMA's National Risk Index, 71.6/100, rated Relatively Low. Its Expected Annual Loss rating is Relatively Low (roughly $20.7M in annualized losses), and a Very High social-vulnerability profile combined with Very Low community resilience shapes how much of that raw exposure becomes realized harm. Of the 18 hazards FEMA models, Drought stands out as the sharpest exposure here, rated Relatively High. FEMA's modeled frequency puts that hazard at 9.7 modeled event-days per year here, based on 350 historical events on record.
Declaration frequency
The FEMA register is busy by both local and national comparisons. It contains 25 entries for Clay County, including 19 Major Disaster records, 3% above the Arkansas county mean. Across the 57-year span, that works out to 0.4 declarations a year. Severe Storm leads the file with 13 entries. Declaration type records the federal action taken, not every assistance program approved.
65 /100
Historical Activity Index
High historical activity
Clay County, AR · PlainHazard-derived composite from federal records
This 0–100 index is an explicit PlainHazard composite from FEMA declaration history only on the county surface (this DB has no county-level NOAA damage row) . It is not FEMA's National Risk Index, not a forecast, and not a safety, insurance, or preparedness rating. Open the calculator · Methodology
FEMA Declarations (1953–present) High
18/30
25 OpenFEMA declarations, full ingest window (1.2x national county average)
County Disaster Density High
13/25
25 declarations (1.0x state county average of 24)
Major Disaster Share Very High
19/25
19 of 25 declarations are major disasters (76%)
Hazard Diversity Very High
15/20
6 different disaster types declared in Clay County
Historical Declaration Activity
Activity Band
High
vs. Arkansas Avg
+3%
State avg: 24.2
vs. National Avg
+21%
National avg: 20.7
Avg Per Year
0.4
Over 57 years
FEMA NRI 8-hazard radar - Clay County
How to read this radar
Each axis: NRI risk rating (Very Low-Very High) on a 0-100 scale. Rounder = broad exposure; spiky = one or two hazards dominate.
Major Disaster share
76%
Mostly major
NRI risk score
72
Relatively Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Per-county per-hazard ratings, December 2025 release
How often does each hazard strike Clay County?
FEMA's National Risk Index models a historical event count and an annualized frequency for each hazard type. Most hazards are expressed as modeled occurrences per year; FEMA expresses drought and heat-wave frequency as event-days per year. These modeled frequencies are not forecasts.
| Hazard | NRI Risk Rating | Recurrence |
|---|---|---|
| Drought | Relatively High | 9.7 modeled event-days per year |
| Earthquake | Relatively Moderate | roughly once every 82 years |
| Ice Storm | Relatively High | an average of 1.2 times per year |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 19 modeled event-days per year |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | an average of 2.5 times per year |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | an average of 58 times per year |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | roughly once every 2 years |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | an average of 7.3 times per year |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | an average of 2.1 times per year |
| Landslide | Very Low | roughly once every 2 years |
| Hurricane | Very Low | roughly once every 51 years |
| Riverine Flooding | Relatively Low | an average of 1.1 times per year |
| Hail | Very Low | an average of 3.2 times per year |
| Wildfire | Very Low | roughly once every 5,199 years |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Modeled annualized frequency; drought and heat wave use event-days/year, December 2025 release
Disaster Types
Severe Storm 13
Flood 5
Hurricane 2
Biological 2
Severe Ice Storm 2
Winter Storm 1
What Severe Storm declarations mean here
Severe Storm is the most frequent declaration type on Clay County's record, 52% of its declarations. In FEMA's vocabulary this covers convective weather: thunderstorm straight-line winds, large hail, and the multi-day outbreaks that often carry embedded tornadoes. Activity is heaviest in spring and summer, though the season varies by region.
These events behave differently from a hurricane on paper. Damage tends to be distributed along a storm track rather than concentrated on a coastline, and a declaration typically follows an outbreak that crossed several counties over a few days, not a single point of impact. Because the qualifying threshold is the cost of uninsured public and individual losses rather than storm intensity, two similar storms can produce a declaration in one year and none in another.
Declaration counts describe past federal action. They are a record of what was declared, not a forecast of future hazard probability.
Declaration Types
What DR / EM / FM mean
FEMA categorizes declarations as Major Disasters (DR), Emergencies (EM), or Fire Management Assistance (FM).
Major Disaster - 19 76.0%
of all 25 declarations
Emergency - 6 24.0%
of all 25 declarations
FEMA Declarations Timeline
| Year | Declarations | |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | |
| 2025 | 2 | |
| 2020 | 3 | |
| 2017 | 1 | |
| 2016 | 1 | |
| 2014 | 1 | |
| 2011 | 1 | |
| 2010 | 1 | |
| 2009 | 3 | |
| 2008 | 1 | |
| 2005 | 1 | |
| 2003 | 1 | |
| 2002 | 1 | |
| 1999 | 1 | |
| 1997 | 2 | |
Show 4 earlier declaration years
| 1990 | 1 | |
| 1983 | 1 | |
| 1973 | 1 | |
| 1969 | 1 | |
Disaster Declarations
How the 25 FEMA declarations break into federal action codes (DR / EM / FM). Same DISTINCT grain as the table below.
Download these 25 declarations as CSV . FEMA source data is public domain; our derived presentation is CC0.
| DR# | Title | Type | Incident | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3636 | SEVERE WINTER STORM | EM | Winter Storm | 2026-01-24 |
| 4873 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, AND FLOODING | DR | Flood | 2025-05-21 |
| 3627 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, AND FLOODING | EM | Severe Storm | 2025-04-05 |
| 3541 | HURRICANE LAURA | EM | Hurricane | 2020-08-27 |
| 4518 | COVID-19 PANDEMIC | DR | Biological | 2020-04-03 |
| 3461 | COVID-19 | EM | Biological | 2020-03-13 |
| 4318 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2017-06-15 |
| 4254 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2016-02-05 |
| 4174 | SEVERE STORMS,TORNADOES, AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2014-04-29 |
| 1975 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2011-05-02 |
| 1872 | SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2010-02-04 |
| 1819 | SEVERE WINTER STORM | DR | Severe Storm | 2009-02-06 |
| 3301 | SEVERE WINTER STORM | EM | Severe Ice Storm | 2009-01-28 |
| 1804 | TROPICAL STORM IKE | DR | Severe Storm | 2008-10-22 |
| 1751 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2008-03-26 |
| 3215 | HURRICANE KATRINA EVACUATION | EM | Hurricane | 2005-09-02 |
| 1450 | SEVERE ICE STORM | DR | Severe Ice Storm | 2003-01-06 |
| 1400 | SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2002-01-24 |
| 1266 | AR SEVERE WEATHER 1-21-99 | DR | Severe Storm | 1999-01-23 |
| 1176 | FLOODING, SEVERE STORMS | DR | Flood | 1997-04-14 |
Show 5 earlier declaration records
| DR# | Title | Type | Incident | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1162 | SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADOES | DR | Severe Storm | 1997-03-02 |
| 865 | SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1990-05-15 |
| 673 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES & FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 1982-12-13 |
| 375 | SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1973-04-27 |
| 254 | SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1969-02-15 |
Storm Events in Arkansas
Statewide NOAA context only. PlainHazard does not currently attribute these state totals to Clay County.
| Storm Type | Events | Fatalities | Injuries | Property Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunderstorm Wind | 3,657 | 10 | 23 | $60.9M |
| Hail | 2,230 | 0 | 0 | $7.7M |
| Flash Flood | 1,517 | 12 | 3 | $15.9M |
| Heat | 1,222 | 2 | 325 | $0 |
| Flood | 1,152 | 9 | 0 | $40.2M |
Source: NOAA Storm Events Database State-level aggregated data, 2015-2025
NFIP Flood Insurance Claims
Total Claims
180
Total Paid
$4.1M
Avg Per Claim
$23.0K
Source: FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA Claims Data
FEMA National Risk Index
Overall Risk
Relatively Low
Score: 71.6/100
Expected Annual Loss
Relatively Low
$20.7M/year
Social Vulnerability
Very High
Community Resilience
Very Low
Hazard Risk Breakdown
Drought Relatively High
Earthquake Relatively Moderate
Ice Storm Relatively High
Heat Wave Relatively Moderate
Cold Wave Relatively Moderate
Lightning Relatively Moderate
Tornado Relatively Moderate
Winter Weather Relatively Moderate
Strong Wind Relatively Low
Landslide Very Low
Hurricane Very Low
Riverine Flooding Relatively Low
Hail Very Low
Wildfire Very Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) Ratings reflect relative scores among all US counties. Data: hazards.fema.gov/nri
The model's sharpest exposure here: Drought
Drought is the slowest of the modeled hazards and the least visible: it does its damage to agriculture, water supply and soil over seasons rather than hours, so it rarely produces the kind of single-day damage that drives a disaster declaration. FEMA scores it in event-days per year rather than discrete events for exactly that reason.
Worth noting for Clay County: the model and the federal record do NOT point at the same hazard. Drought carries the highest modeled rating (Relatively High), while the county's declaration history is led by Severe Storm. That is not a contradiction, the two measure genuinely different things. Declarations record federal ACTION, which requires damage costly enough to exceed state and local capacity; the Risk Index models EXPECTED annual loss across all 18 hazards whether or not any declaration ever followed. A hazard can be the county's largest modeled exposure and never once have driven a declaration.
National Risk Index ratings are modeled estimates of expected annual loss, not predictions of what will happen in any given year.
Data-matched county comparisons
Clay County's closest FEMA peer: Allegany County, NY
Comparisons use published FEMA declaration fields plus the National Risk Index composite for Clay County. Record similarity, not a safety rating.
Closest declaration profiles
Clay County shows 25 FEMA declarations, led by Severe Storm.
Similar Major-disaster share
Clay County: 19 of 25 of its declarations are Major.
Similar modeled NRI score
Clay County: NRI composite 71.6 (Relatively Low).
How these peers are chosen
Cohort: Published U.S. county equivalents outside the source state or territory. Each metric keeps six ETL candidates; three unique destinations are shown after de-duplicating across axes. Declaration-volume ranking combines count and Major-disaster share and prefers a different leading incident type; Major-share ranks the Major fraction adjusted for volume; NRI ranks the modeled composite score only.
Retained FEMA snapshot feed for Clay County - capture-dated entries only.
Further reading for this county
Understanding disaster data
Clay County's NFIP claims file (180 claims) and FEMA declaration history measure different federal records - this guide separates them from modeled NRI risk.
More PlainHazard guides
- Most disaster-prone counties - U.S. counties ranked by FEMA declaration totals.
- Understanding disaster data - declarations vs storm events vs NRI scores.
- Preparing for natural disasters - household checklist (not county-specific advice).
Related
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most common disaster type in Clay County?
The most common disaster type in Clay County is Severe Storm, with 13 declarations. Other disaster types include Flood (5), Hurricane (2), Biological (2).
How does Clay County's FEMA declaration record compare with the Arkansas average?
FEMA lists 25 declaration records for Clay County. That is 3% above the Arkansas county mean of 24.2. Its count is also 21% above the national county mean of 20.7. A larger declaration history records more federal actions; it is not a forecast of the county's next hazard.
How many major FEMA disaster declarations has Clay County received?
Clay County has received 19 major disaster declarations, representing 76% of all 25 disaster declarations.
How many flood insurance claims has Clay County filed?
Clay County has 180 National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims totaling $4.1M in payments, with an average of $23.0K per claim.
Does FEMA's top risk-rated hazard match the highest Expected Annual Loss in Clay County?
No. In Clay County, Drought has the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively High), while Earthquake leads Expected Annual Loss at about $7.6M. FEMA's risk score and dollar-loss model use different inputs, so the leaders often differ.
What was the worst year for disasters in Clay County?
The most active year for disaster declarations in Clay County was 2009, with 3 declarations. The county has FEMA disaster data spanning 1969 to 2026.
What is the FEMA National Risk Index score for Clay County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, Clay County, Arkansas has an overall risk score of 71.6 out of 100 (Relatively Low). On social vulnerability the county rates Very High; on community resilience, Very Low. The Expected Annual Loss (EAL) score is Relatively Low, representing $20.7M in annualized losses.
Which natural hazard poses the greatest risk to Clay County?
FEMA's NRI data points to Clay County as of the latest release is Drought (risk rating: Relatively High). Other significant hazards include Earthquake (Relatively Moderate) and Ice Storm (Relatively High). FEMA's modeled event frequency puts drought here at 9.7 modeled event-days per year, drawn from 350 historical events on record. FEMA derives these ratings from historical event frequency, the assets exposed, and the community's vulnerability profile.
Data Sources & Methodology
Disaster declaration data comes from the FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 API, which includes all federally declared disasters, emergencies, and fire management assistance grants.
Storm event data is sourced from the NOAA Storm Events Database (2015-2025), which tracks significant weather events including thunderstorms, tornadoes, floods, and winter storms.
Flood insurance data comes from the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA claims dataset.
This data is provided for informational purposes only. FEMA disaster declarations represent federal response actions and may not capture all local emergencies or weather events.
What this means for Clay County
Clay County, AR has 25 federal declaration records, 3% more than the Arkansas county mean of 24; its history sits in PlainHazard's high activity band.
- Within this above-state-average declaration file, major disaster leads with 19 of 25 records; the category describes past federal action, not the next likely hazard. Arkansas overview
- The state benchmark and national rank point the same way: this count tops the Arkansas mean and the totals for 71% of 3,266 U.S. counties. Most-disaster rankings
- Use the data guide to separate this mid-volume insurance-claims file from declaration counts and modeled NRI risk. Disaster-data guide
An above-average declaration count records past federal responses; it does not predict the next event. Current warnings come from the National Weather Service and local emergency officials.
PlainHazard derives this profile from FEMA's Disaster Declarations Summaries and National Risk Index data. The declaration comparison covers 3,266 U.S. counties and county equivalents in this database, refreshed as of 2026-08-03. Read our methodology - how this data is sourced, computed, and verified.
All federal data sources used on this page
- FEMA OpenFEMA, Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 - all federally-declared disasters for this county. fema.gov/openfema/disaster-declarations
- FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) - per-county per-hazard risk ratings and expected annual loss. hazards.fema.gov/nri
- NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database - state-level storm/severe-weather event records, 2015-2025. ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents
Data sourced from official public datasets. See our methodology for details. Retrieved and formatted by PlainHazard Editorial
Verify with FEMA → · Verify with FEMA NRI → · Verify with NOAA →
Every figure on PlainHazard is rendered directly from FEMA federal disaster data, no number is typed in by an editor. See our editorial standards & corrections policy, the methodology behind these numbers, or national statistics report, the data & editorial changelog, or report a data error.