FEMA Records
5
Low volume
Illinois · FEMA + NOAA + National Risk Index
Clay County, IL
5 FEMA disaster declarations (2002-2020), with a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Very Low. Most common hazard: Biological.
- 5
- FEMA declarations
- 3
- Major disasters
- 41
- NRI risk · Very Low
- Biological
- Top hazard
The verdict
Start with the local benchmark for Clay County: 5 FEMA declaration records are 61% below the Illinois county mean, even though the count is higher than 2% of counties in the national registry. On FEMA's distinct National Risk Index model, which combines expected loss with vulnerability and resilience, the county ranks safer than 41%.
- Safer than 41%
- of U.S. counties for FEMA National Risk Index score
- Very Low
- FEMA National Risk Index rating
- 5
- FEMA declarations vs 21 national county avg
- 4
- NFIP flood insurance claims filed
FEMA's National Risk Index and its declaration registry are separate measures. This county's registry includes Major Disaster (DR) and Emergency (EM) records; an EM authorizes a narrower set of federal assistance than a DR.
How does Clay County compare?
Clay County vs. all counties in this dataset
FEMA disaster declarations, all-time
5 2nd percentile higher than 2% of 3,266 counties
Each bar is a band; taller bars hold more counties. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count, share, and where it sits relative to this entry.
Source FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 · 2026-08-03
Clay County's FEMA Risk Index score
FEMA National Risk Index composite score vs. the Illinois county average
Which hazard drives modeled loss here?
FEMA's modeled annual dollar loss for Clay County is led by Riverine Flooding (about $4.3M Expected Annual Loss, Historical Loss Ratio Relatively High), while Drought carries the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively Moderate). EAL and risk score use different inputs; they need not agree.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025 release) - Expected Annual Loss vs composite risk rating by hazard.
What does Clay County's hazard record show?
FEMA National Risk Index
FEMA's data shows an elevated National Risk Index composite of 41.1/100 for this county (Very Low rating). Expected Annual Loss comes in at Very Low (roughly $11.9M in annualized losses). Social vulnerability (Relatively Moderate) and community resilience (Very High) both factor into how that raw exposure plays out on the ground. Among the 18 modeled hazards, Drought carries the county's highest rating, a mid-range Relatively Moderate. FEMA's modeled frequency puts that hazard at 1.7 modeled event-days per year here, based on 42 historical events on record.
Declaration frequency
The state comparison is the clearest context for Clay County's moderate federal record. Its 5 declarations sit 61% below the Illinois county mean, with 3 Major Disaster entries among them. 2 records concern Biological, the file's most frequent incident type. Spread across 18 years, the registry rate is 0.3 per year. FEMA reports authorized programs separately from the DR, EM, and FM codes.
Reading the federal records together
This county has a small entry in FEMA's NFIP paid-claims table: 4 claims and $28.6K paid in total. PlainHazard calls 1-49 claims a light registry record, a label for this dataset rather than a finding that flood exposure is low. A short claims history can also reflect insurance take-up, the period covered, or losses that were never insured.
Start with the state benchmark: a Illinois county averages 12.9 federal declaration records, while Clay County has 5. The gap is 61% below that mean. Fewer entries indicate a quieter history of recorded federal actions, not immunity from a hazard and not a prediction about what happens next.
34 /100
Historical Activity Index
Moderate historical activity
Clay County, IL · PlainHazard-derived composite from federal records
This 0–100 index is an explicit PlainHazard composite from FEMA declaration history only on the county surface (this DB has no county-level NOAA damage row) . It is not FEMA's National Risk Index, not a forecast, and not a safety, insurance, or preparedness rating. Open the calculator · Methodology
FEMA Declarations (1953–present) Low
4/30
5 OpenFEMA declarations, full ingest window (0.2x national county average)
County Disaster Density Low
5/25
5 declarations (0.4x state county average of 13)
Major Disaster Share High
15/25
3 of 5 declarations are major disasters (60%)
Hazard Diversity High
10/20
4 different disaster types declared in Clay County
Historical Declaration Activity
Activity Band
Moderate
vs. Illinois Avg
-61%
State avg: 12.9
vs. National Avg
-76%
National avg: 20.7
Avg Per Year
0.3
Over 18 years
FEMA NRI 8-hazard radar - Clay County
How to read this radar
Each axis: NRI risk rating (Very Low-Very High) on a 0-100 scale. Rounder = broad exposure; spiky = one or two hazards dominate.
Major Disaster share
60%
Major-heavy
NRI risk score
41
Very Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Per-county per-hazard ratings, December 2025 release
How often does each hazard strike Clay County?
FEMA's National Risk Index models a historical event count and an annualized frequency for each hazard type. Most hazards are expressed as modeled occurrences per year; FEMA expresses drought and heat-wave frequency as event-days per year. These modeled frequencies are not forecasts.
| Hazard | NRI Risk Rating | Recurrence |
|---|---|---|
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 1.7 modeled event-days per year |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | roughly once every 161 years |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 8.1 modeled event-days per year |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | an average of 4.2 times per year |
| Landslide | Very Low | roughly once every 4 years |
| Hail | Relatively Low | an average of 2.9 times per year |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | an average of 1.4 times per year |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | an average of 6.7 times per year |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | roughly once every 3 years |
| Riverine Flooding | Relatively Low | an average of 2 times per year |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | roughly once every 2 years |
| Hurricane | Very Low | roughly once every 44 years |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | an average of 50 times per year |
| Wildfire | Very Low | roughly once every 67,400 years |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Modeled annualized frequency; drought and heat wave use event-days/year, December 2025 release
Disaster Types
Biological 2
Snowstorm 1
Hurricane 1
Tornado 1
What Biological declarations mean here
Biological is the most frequent declaration type on Clay County's record, 40% of its declarations. In practice this category is dominated by the COVID-19 declarations of 2020, which were issued across every US state and territory rather than in response to any local hazard event.
This has a direct consequence for how Clay County's number should be read. Because those declarations reached essentially every county in the country, they raise every county's total by a similar amount and tell you nothing about local hazard exposure. A county whose record is led by Biological declarations is, in most cases, a county with a genuinely quiet weather-hazard history, the pandemic records are simply the largest thing in an otherwise short list.
Declaration counts describe past federal action. They are a record of what was declared, not a forecast of future hazard probability.
Declaration Types
What DR / EM / FM mean
FEMA categorizes declarations as Major Disasters (DR), Emergencies (EM), or Fire Management Assistance (FM).
Major Disaster - 3 60.0%
of all 5 declarations
Emergency - 2 40.0%
of all 5 declarations
FEMA Declarations Timeline
| Year | Declarations | |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2 | |
| 2011 | 1 | |
| 2005 | 1 | |
| 2002 | 1 | |
Disaster Declarations
How the 5 FEMA declarations break into federal action codes (DR / EM / FM). Same DISTINCT grain as the table below.
Download these 5 declarations as CSV . FEMA source data is public domain; our derived presentation is CC0.
| DR# | Title | Type | Incident | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4489 | COVID-19 PANDEMIC | DR | Biological | 2020-03-26 |
| 3435 | COVID-19 | EM | Biological | 2020-03-13 |
| 1960 | SEVERE WINTER STORM AND SNOWSTORM | DR | Snowstorm | 2011-03-17 |
| 3230 | HURRICANE KATRINA EVACUATION | EM | Hurricane | 2005-09-07 |
| 1416 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES AND FLOODING | DR | Tornado | 2002-05-21 |
Storm Events in Illinois
Statewide NOAA context only. PlainHazard does not currently attribute these state totals to Clay County.
| Storm Type | Events | Fatalities | Injuries | Property Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunderstorm Wind | 7,218 | 9 | 67 | $46.0M |
| Hail | 3,195 | 0 | 0 | $27.1M |
| Winter Weather | 1,363 | 14 | 49 | $1.8M |
| Flood | 1,221 | 14 | 11 | $84.3M |
| Flash Flood | 1,133 | 11 | 3 | $1.1B |
Source: NOAA Storm Events Database State-level aggregated data, 2015-2025
NFIP Flood Insurance Claims
Total Claims
4
Total Paid
$28.6K
Avg Per Claim
$7.1K
Source: FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA Claims Data
FEMA National Risk Index
Overall Risk
Very Low
Score: 41.1/100
Expected Annual Loss
Very Low
$11.9M/year
Social Vulnerability
Relatively Moderate
Community Resilience
Very High
Hazard Risk Breakdown
Drought Relatively Moderate
Earthquake Relatively Low
Heat Wave Relatively Low
Strong Wind Relatively Moderate
Landslide Very Low
Hail Relatively Low
Cold Wave Relatively Low
Winter Weather Relatively Low
Tornado Relatively Low
Riverine Flooding Relatively Low
Ice Storm Relatively Low
Hurricane Very Low
Lightning Relatively Low
Wildfire Very Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) Ratings reflect relative scores among all US counties. Data: hazards.fema.gov/nri
The model's sharpest exposure here: Drought
Drought is the slowest of the modeled hazards and the least visible: it does its damage to agriculture, water supply and soil over seasons rather than hours, so it rarely produces the kind of single-day damage that drives a disaster declaration. FEMA scores it in event-days per year rather than discrete events for exactly that reason.
Worth noting for Clay County: the model and the federal record do NOT point at the same hazard. Drought carries the highest modeled rating (Relatively Moderate), while the county's declaration history is led by Biological. That is not a contradiction, the two measure genuinely different things. Declarations record federal ACTION, which requires damage costly enough to exceed state and local capacity; the Risk Index models EXPECTED annual loss across all 18 hazards whether or not any declaration ever followed. A hazard can be the county's largest modeled exposure and never once have driven a declaration.
National Risk Index ratings are modeled estimates of expected annual loss, not predictions of what will happen in any given year.
Data-matched county comparisons
Clay County's closest FEMA peer: Minidoka County, ID
Comparisons use published FEMA declaration fields plus the National Risk Index composite for Clay County. Record similarity, not a safety rating.
Closest declaration profiles
Clay County shows 5 FEMA declarations, led by Biological.
Similar Major-disaster share
Clay County: 3 of 5 of its declarations are Major.
Similar modeled NRI score
Clay County: NRI composite 41.1 (Very Low).
How these peers are chosen
Cohort: Published U.S. county equivalents outside the source state or territory. Each metric keeps six ETL candidates; three unique destinations are shown after de-duplicating across axes. Declaration-volume ranking combines count and Major-disaster share and prefers a different leading incident type; Major-share ranks the Major fraction adjusted for volume; NRI ranks the modeled composite score only.
Retained FEMA snapshot feed for Clay County - capture-dated entries only.
Further reading for this county
Understanding disaster data
FEMA's National Risk Index flags Drought as the top modeled exposure here (Relatively Moderate); the guide explains how that model differs from declaration counts.
More PlainHazard guides
- Most disaster-prone counties - U.S. counties ranked by FEMA declaration totals.
- Understanding disaster data - declarations vs storm events vs NRI scores.
- Preparing for natural disasters - household checklist (not county-specific advice).
Related
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most common disaster type in Clay County?
The most common disaster type in Clay County is Biological, with 2 declarations. Other disaster types include Snowstorm (1), Hurricane (1), Tornado (1).
How does Clay County's FEMA declaration record compare with the Illinois average?
The typical Illinois county has 12.9 FEMA declaration records; Clay County has 5, or 61% fewer. Against the national county mean of 20.7, this county's total is 76% lower. The comparison is historical and says nothing about the probability of a future event.
How many major FEMA disaster declarations has Clay County received?
Clay County has received 3 major disaster declarations, representing 60% of all 5 disaster declarations.
How many flood insurance claims has Clay County filed?
Clay County has 4 National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims totaling $28.6K in payments, with an average of $7.1K per claim.
Does FEMA's top risk-rated hazard match the highest Expected Annual Loss in Clay County?
No. In Clay County, Drought has the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively Moderate), while Riverine Flooding leads Expected Annual Loss at about $4.3M. FEMA's risk score and dollar-loss model use different inputs, so the leaders often differ.
What was the worst year for disasters in Clay County?
The most active year for disaster declarations in Clay County was 2020, with 2 declarations. The county has FEMA disaster data spanning 2002 to 2020.
What is the FEMA National Risk Index score for Clay County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, Clay County, Illinois has an overall risk score of 41.1 out of 100 (Very Low). On social vulnerability the county rates Relatively Moderate; on community resilience, Very High. The Expected Annual Loss (EAL) score is Very Low, representing $11.9M in annualized losses.
Which natural hazard poses the greatest risk to Clay County?
The top hazard flagged by FEMA's NRI for Clay County is Drought (risk rating: Relatively Moderate). Other significant hazards include Earthquake (Relatively Low) and Heat Wave (Relatively Low). FEMA's modeled event frequency puts drought here at 1.7 modeled event-days per year, drawn from 42 historical events on record. These scores are based on FEMA's analysis of historical event frequency, exposed assets, and community vulnerability.
Data Sources & Methodology
Disaster declaration data comes from the FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 API, which includes all federally declared disasters, emergencies, and fire management assistance grants.
Storm event data is sourced from the NOAA Storm Events Database (2015-2025), which tracks significant weather events including thunderstorms, tornadoes, floods, and winter storms.
Flood insurance data comes from the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA claims dataset.
This data is provided for informational purposes only. FEMA disaster declarations represent federal response actions and may not capture all local emergencies or weather events.
What this means for Clay County
Against a Illinois county mean of 13 declarations, Clay County, IL records 5, or 61% fewer. PlainHazard classifies that historical total as moderate activity.
- Major Disaster is the largest group (3 of 5) in a declaration history that remains below its state benchmark; frequency here is not a forecast. Illinois overview
- Nationally the county exceeds 2% of recorded county totals, but its own Illinois benchmark is higher. The ranking keeps those two contexts separate. Most-disaster rankings
- A short NFIP claims file cannot establish low flood exposure; the data guide explains the limits of each federal measure. Disaster-data guide
A below-average federal record is not a safety guarantee. Use National Weather Service alerts and local emergency-management notices for present conditions, not this historical comparison.
PlainHazard derives this profile from FEMA's Disaster Declarations Summaries and National Risk Index data. The declaration comparison covers 3,266 U.S. counties and county equivalents in this database, refreshed as of 2026-08-03. Read our methodology - how this data is sourced, computed, and verified.
All federal data sources used on this page
- FEMA OpenFEMA, Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 - all federally-declared disasters for this county. fema.gov/openfema/disaster-declarations
- FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) - per-county per-hazard risk ratings and expected annual loss. hazards.fema.gov/nri
- NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database - state-level storm/severe-weather event records, 2015-2025. ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents
Data sourced from official public datasets. See our methodology for details. Retrieved and formatted by PlainHazard Editorial
Verify with FEMA → · Verify with FEMA NRI → · Verify with NOAA →
Every figure on PlainHazard is rendered directly from FEMA federal disaster data, no number is typed in by an editor. See our editorial standards & corrections policy, the methodology behind these numbers, or national statistics report, the data & editorial changelog, or report a data error.