FEMA Records
38
Very high volume
Kentucky · FEMA + NOAA + National Risk Index
Estill County, KY
38 FEMA disaster declarations (1979-2026), with a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Very Low. Most common hazard: Severe Storm.
- 38
- FEMA declarations
- 31
- Major disasters
- 42
- NRI risk · Very Low
- Severe Storm
- Top hazard
The verdict
Two federal records point in the busier direction for Estill County. Its 38 FEMA declarations are 35% above the Kentucky county mean and exceed the count for 95% of the 3,266 counties in this registry. Separately, FEMA's National Risk Index places it safer than 42%, based on modeled expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience.
- Safer than 42%
- of U.S. counties for FEMA National Risk Index score
- Very Low
- FEMA National Risk Index rating
- 38
- FEMA declarations vs 21 national county avg
- 42
- NFIP flood insurance claims filed
FEMA's National Risk Index and its declaration registry are separate measures. This county's registry includes Major Disaster (DR) and Emergency (EM) records; an EM authorizes a narrower set of federal assistance than a DR.
How does Estill County compare?
Estill County vs. all counties in this dataset
FEMA disaster declarations, all-time
38 Top 5% higher than 95% of 3,266 counties
Each bar is a band; taller bars hold more counties. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count, share, and where it sits relative to this entry.
Source FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 · 2026-08-03
Estill County's FEMA Risk Index score
FEMA National Risk Index composite score vs. the Kentucky county average
What does Estill County's hazard record show?
FEMA National Risk Index
FEMA's data shows an elevated National Risk Index composite of 41.8/100 for this county (Very Low rating). Expected Annual Loss comes in at Very Low (roughly $8.9M in annualized losses). Social vulnerability (Very High) and community resilience (Relatively Low) both factor into how that raw exposure plays out on the ground. Even the county's top-rated hazard, Riverine Flooding, only reaches Relatively Low on FEMA's scale, none of the 18 modeled hazards stand out here. FEMA's modeled frequency puts that hazard at an average of 2.6 times per year here, based on 72 historical events on record.
Declaration frequency
The FEMA register is busy by both local and national comparisons. It contains 38 entries for Estill County, including 31 Major Disaster records, 35% above the Kentucky county mean. Across the 47-year span, that works out to 0.8 declarations a year. Severe Storm leads the file with 21 entries. Declaration type records the federal action taken, not every assistance program approved.
Reading the federal records together
This county has a small entry in FEMA's NFIP paid-claims table: 42 claims and $1.1M paid in total. PlainHazard calls 1-49 claims a light registry record, a label for this dataset rather than a finding that flood exposure is low. A short claims history can also reflect insurance take-up, the period covered, or losses that were never insured.
The declaration register points in the busier direction. Estill County's 38 federal records stand 35% above the Kentucky county mean of 28.1. That comparison describes how often federal action was recorded, including any Major Disaster, Emergency, and Fire Management entries shown on this page; it does not convert the count into future probability.
85 /100
Historical Activity Index
Very High historical activity
Estill County, KY · PlainHazard-derived composite from federal records
This 0–100 index is an explicit PlainHazard composite from FEMA declaration history only on the county surface (this DB has no county-level NOAA damage row) . It is not FEMA's National Risk Index, not a forecast, and not a safety, insurance, or preparedness rating. Open the calculator · Methodology
FEMA Declarations (1953–present) Very High
28/30
38 OpenFEMA declarations, full ingest window (1.8x national county average)
County Disaster Density High
17/25
38 declarations (1.4x state county average of 28)
Major Disaster Share Very High
20/25
31 of 38 declarations are major disasters (82%)
Hazard Diversity Very High
20/20
8 different disaster types declared in Estill County
Historical Declaration Activity
Activity Band
High
vs. Kentucky Avg
+35%
State avg: 28.1
vs. National Avg
+83%
National avg: 20.7
Avg Per Year
0.8
Over 47 years
FEMA NRI 8-hazard radar - Estill County
How to read this radar
Each axis: NRI risk rating (Very Low-Very High) on a 0-100 scale. Rounder = broad exposure; spiky = one or two hazards dominate.
Major Disaster share
82%
Mostly major
NRI risk score
42
Very Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index FEMA National Risk Index Per-county per-hazard ratings, December 2025 release
How often does each hazard strike Estill County?
FEMA's National Risk Index models a historical event count and an annualized frequency for each hazard type. Most hazards are expressed as modeled occurrences per year; FEMA expresses drought and heat-wave frequency as event-days per year. These modeled frequencies are not forecasts.
| Hazard | NRI Risk Rating | Recurrence |
|---|---|---|
| Riverine Flooding | Relatively Low | an average of 2.6 times per year |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | an average of 14 times per year |
| Landslide | Very Low | roughly once every 2 years |
| Avalanche | Very Low | roughly once every 100 years |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | an average of 5.9 times per year |
| Wildfire | Very Low | roughly once every 913 years |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | an average of 52 times per year |
| Hail | Relatively Low | an average of 3.3 times per year |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | roughly once every 1 years |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | roughly once every 11 years |
| Earthquake | Very Low | roughly once every 536 years |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 2.8 modeled event-days per year |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | roughly once every 2 years |
| Hurricane | Very Low | roughly once every 43 years |
| Drought | Very Low | 2.8 modeled event-days per year |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index FEMA National Risk Index Modeled annualized frequency; drought and heat wave use event-days/year, December 2025 release
Disaster Types
Severe Storm 21
Flood 5
Snowstorm 4
Severe Ice Storm 3
Biological 2
Winter Storm 1
Tropical Storm 1
Hurricane 1
What Severe Storm declarations mean here
Severe Storm is the most frequent declaration type on Estill County's record, 55% of its declarations. In FEMA's vocabulary this covers convective weather: thunderstorm straight-line winds, large hail, and the multi-day outbreaks that often carry embedded tornadoes. Activity is heaviest in spring and summer, though the season varies by region.
These events behave differently from a hurricane on paper. Damage tends to be distributed along a storm track rather than concentrated on a coastline, and a declaration typically follows an outbreak that crossed several counties over a few days, not a single point of impact. Because the qualifying threshold is the cost of uninsured public and individual losses rather than storm intensity, two similar storms can produce a declaration in one year and none in another.
Declaration counts describe past federal action. They are a record of what was declared, not a forecast of future hazard probability.
Declaration Types
What DR / EM / FM mean
FEMA categorizes declarations as Major Disasters (DR), Emergencies (EM), or Fire Management Assistance (FM).
Major Disaster - 31 81.6%
of all 38 declarations
Emergency - 7 18.4%
of all 38 declarations
FEMA Declarations Timeline
| Year | Declarations | |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | |
| 2025 | 6 | |
| 2024 | 1 | |
| 2023 | 1 | |
| 2021 | 2 | |
| 2020 | 2 | |
| 2019 | 1 | |
| 2018 | 1 | |
| 2015 | 4 | |
| 2011 | 1 | |
| 2010 | 1 | |
| 2009 | 3 | |
| 2008 | 1 | |
| 2005 | 1 | |
| 2004 | 1 | |
Show 10 earlier declaration years
| 2003 | 2 | |
| 2002 | 1 | |
| 2001 | 1 | |
| 1998 | 1 | |
| 1997 | 1 | |
| 1996 | 1 | |
| 1994 | 1 | |
| 1993 | 1 | |
| 1984 | 1 | |
| 1979 | 1 | |
Disaster Declarations
How the 38 FEMA declarations break into federal action codes (DR / EM / FM). Same DISTINCT grain as the table below.
Download these 38 declarations as CSV . FEMA source data is public domain; our derived presentation is CC0.
| DR# | Title | Type | Incident | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3633 | SEVERE WINTER STORM | EM | Winter Storm | 2026-01-24 |
| 4875 | SEVERE STORMS, STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, AND TORNADOES | DR | Severe Storm | 2025-05-23 |
| 4864 | SEVERE STORMS, STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, TORNADOES, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES, AND MUDSLIDES | DR | Severe Storm | 2025-04-24 |
| 3626 | SEVERE STORMS, STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, TORNADOES, AND FLOODING | EM | Severe Storm | 2025-04-03 |
| 4860 | SEVERE STORMS, STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES, AND MUDSLIDES | DR | Severe Storm | 2025-02-24 |
| 3624 | SEVERE STORMS, STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, FLOODING, AND LANDSLIDES | EM | Severe Storm | 2025-02-16 |
| 4848 | REMNANTS OF HURRICANE HELENE | DR | Tropical Storm | 2024-11-26 |
| 4804 | SEVERE STORMS, STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, TORNADOES, LANDSLIDES, AND MUDSLIDES | DR | Severe Storm | 2024-07-23 |
| 4702 | SEVERE STORMS, STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, TORNADOES, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES, AND MUDSLIDES | DR | Severe Storm | 2023-04-10 |
| 4595 | SEVERE, STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES, AND MUDSLIDES | DR | Flood | 2021-04-23 |
| 4592 | SEVERE WINTER STORMS, LANDSLIDES, AND MUDSLIDES | DR | Severe Ice Storm | 2021-03-31 |
| 4497 | COVID-19 PANDEMIC | DR | Biological | 2020-03-28 |
| 3469 | COVID-19 | EM | Biological | 2020-03-13 |
| 4428 | SEVERE STORMS, STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES, AND MUDSLIDES | DR | Severe Storm | 2019-04-17 |
| 4358 | SEVERE STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES, AND MUDSLIDES | DR | Flood | 2018-04-12 |
| 4239 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES, AND MUDSLIDE | DR | Severe Storm | 2015-08-12 |
| 4218 | SEVERE WINTER STORM, SNOWSTORM, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES, AND MUDSLIDES | DR | Flood | 2015-05-12 |
| 4217 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES, AND MUDSLIDES | DR | Flood | 2015-05-01 |
| 4216 | SEVERE WINTER STORMS, SNOWSTORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES, AND MUDSLIDES | DR | Snowstorm | 2015-04-30 |
| 1976 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2011-05-04 |
Show 18 earlier declaration records
| DR# | Title | Type | Incident | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1912 | SEVERE STORMS, FLOODING, MUDSLIDES, AND TORNADOES | DR | Severe Storm | 2010-05-11 |
| 1841 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES | DR | Severe Storm | 2009-05-29 |
| 1818 | SEVERE WINTER STORM AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Ice Storm | 2009-02-05 |
| 3302 | SEVERE WINTER STORM | EM | Severe Ice Storm | 2009-01-28 |
| 1746 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, AND | DR | Severe Storm | 2008-02-21 |
| 3231 | HURRICANE KATRINA | EM | Hurricane | 2005-09-10 |
| 1523 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, FLOODING, AND MUDSLIDES | DR | Severe Storm | 2004-06-10 |
| 1471 | SEVERE STORMS, FLOODING, MUD AND ROCK SLIDES, AND TORNADOES | DR | Severe Storm | 2003-06-03 |
| 1454 | SEVERE WINTER ICE AND SNOW STORMS, HEAVY RAIN, FLOODING, TORNADOES, AND MUD AND | DR | Severe Storm | 2003-03-14 |
| 1407 | SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2002-04-04 |
| 1388 | SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2001-08-15 |
| 1207 | SEVERE WINTER STORM | DR | Severe Storm | 1998-03-03 |
| 1163 | SEVERE STORM, FLOODING, AND TORNADOES | DR | Severe Storm | 1997-03-04 |
| 1089 | BLIZZARD OF 96 | DR | Snowstorm | 1996-01-13 |
| 1018 | SEVERE WEATHER, FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, SNW | DR | Snowstorm | 1994-03-16 |
| 3104 | SEVERE SNOWFALL & WINTER STORM | EM | Snowstorm | 1993-03-16 |
| 705 | HIGH WINDS, TORNADOES & FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 1984-05-15 |
| 568 | SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1978-12-12 |
Storm Events in Kentucky
Statewide NOAA context only. PlainHazard does not currently attribute these state totals to Estill County.
| Storm Type | Events | Fatalities | Injuries | Property Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunderstorm Wind | 6,702 | 9 | 56 | $55.2M |
| Flash Flood | 1,757 | 65 | 16 | $42.6M |
| Flood | 1,646 | 31 | 6 | $37.1M |
| Hail | 1,534 | 1 | 0 | $4.7M |
| Winter Weather | 1,079 | 14 | 54 | $655.0K |
Source: NOAA Storm Events Database NOAA Storm Events Database State-level aggregated data, 2015-2025
NFIP Flood Insurance Claims
Total Claims
42
Total Paid
$1.1M
Avg Per Claim
$26.1K
Source: FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA Claims Data FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA Claims Data
FEMA National Risk Index
Overall Risk
Very Low
Score: 41.8/100
Expected Annual Loss
Very Low
$8.9M/year
Social Vulnerability
Very High
Community Resilience
Relatively Low
Hazard Risk Breakdown
Riverine Flooding Relatively Low
Winter Weather Relatively Low
Landslide Very Low
Avalanche Very Low
Strong Wind Relatively Low
Wildfire Very Low
Lightning Relatively Low
Hail Relatively Low
Cold Wave Relatively Low
Tornado Relatively Low
Earthquake Very Low
Heat Wave Very Low
Ice Storm Relatively Low
Hurricane Very Low
Drought Very Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) Ratings reflect relative scores among all US counties. Data: hazards.fema.gov/nri
The model's sharpest exposure here: Riverine Flooding
Riverine Flooding is the model's measure of a watershed draining more water than its channel can carry. Unlike flash flooding it usually builds over days and is forecast in advance, which makes it the hazard where warning time most reliably converts into reduced harm.
Worth noting for Estill County: the model and the federal record do NOT point at the same hazard. Riverine Flooding carries the highest modeled rating (Relatively Low), while the county's declaration history is led by Severe Storm. That is not a contradiction, the two measure genuinely different things. Declarations record federal ACTION, which requires damage costly enough to exceed state and local capacity; the Risk Index models EXPECTED annual loss across all 18 hazards whether or not any declaration ever followed. A hazard can be the county's largest modeled exposure and never once have driven a declaration.
National Risk Index ratings are modeled estimates of expected annual loss, not predictions of what will happen in any given year.
Data-matched county comparisons
Estill County's closest FEMA peer: Grand Forks County, ND
Comparisons use published FEMA declaration fields plus the National Risk Index composite for Estill County. Record similarity, not a safety rating.
Closest declaration profiles
Estill County shows 38 FEMA declarations, led by Severe Storm.
Similar Major-disaster share
Estill County: 31 of 38 of its declarations are Major.
Similar modeled NRI score
Estill County: NRI composite 41.8 (Very Low).
How these peers are chosen
Cohort: Published U.S. county equivalents outside the source state or territory. Each metric keeps six ETL candidates; three unique destinations are shown after de-duplicating across axes. Declaration-volume ranking combines count and Major-disaster share and prefers a different leading incident type; Major-share ranks the Major fraction adjusted for volume; NRI ranks the modeled composite score only.
Retained FEMA snapshot feed for Estill County - capture-dated entries only.
Further reading for this county
Most disaster-prone counties
With 38 FEMA declarations, Estill County sits in the high-volume declaration band - see how that count ranks against other U.S. counties.
More PlainHazard guides
- Most disaster-prone counties - U.S. counties ranked by FEMA declaration totals.
- Understanding disaster data - declarations vs storm events vs NRI scores.
- Preparing for natural disasters - household checklist (not county-specific advice).
Related
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most common disaster type in Estill County?
The most common disaster type in Estill County is Severe Storm, with 21 declarations. Other disaster types include Flood (5), Snowstorm (4), Severe Ice Storm (3).
How does Estill County's FEMA declaration record compare with the Kentucky average?
FEMA lists 38 declaration records for Estill County. That is 35% above the Kentucky county mean of 28.1. Its count is also 83% above the national county mean of 20.7. A larger declaration history records more federal actions; it is not a forecast of the county's next hazard.
How many major FEMA disaster declarations has Estill County received?
Estill County has received 31 major disaster declarations, representing 82% of all 38 disaster declarations.
How many flood insurance claims has Estill County filed?
Estill County has 42 National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims totaling $1.1M in payments, with an average of $26.1K per claim.
What was the worst year for disasters in Estill County?
The most active year for disaster declarations in Estill County was 2025, with 6 declarations. The county has FEMA disaster data spanning 1979 to 2026.
What is the FEMA National Risk Index score for Estill County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, Estill County, Kentucky has an overall risk score of 41.8 out of 100 (Very Low). On social vulnerability the county rates Very High; on community resilience, Relatively Low. The Expected Annual Loss (EAL) score is Very Low, representing $8.9M in annualized losses.
Which natural hazard poses the greatest risk to Estill County?
The top hazard flagged by FEMA's NRI for Estill County as of the latest release is Riverine Flooding (risk rating: Relatively Low). Other significant hazards include Winter Weather (Relatively Low) and Landslide (Very Low). FEMA's modeled event frequency puts riverine flooding here at an average of 2.6 times per year, drawn from 72 historical events on record. FEMA derives these ratings from historical event frequency, the assets exposed, and the community's vulnerability profile.
Data Sources & Methodology
Disaster declaration data comes from the FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 API, which includes all federally declared disasters, emergencies, and fire management assistance grants.
Storm event data is sourced from the NOAA Storm Events Database (2015-2025), which tracks significant weather events including thunderstorms, tornadoes, floods, and winter storms.
Flood insurance data comes from the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA claims dataset.
This data is provided for informational purposes only. FEMA disaster declarations represent federal response actions and may not capture all local emergencies or weather events.
What this means for Estill County
Estill County, KY has 38 federal declaration records, 35% more than the Kentucky county mean of 28; its history sits in PlainHazard's high activity band.
- Within this above-state-average declaration file, major disaster leads with 31 of 38 records; the category describes past federal action, not the next likely hazard. Kentucky overview
- The state benchmark and national rank point the same way: this count tops the Kentucky mean and the totals for 95% of 3,266 U.S. counties. Most-disaster rankings
- A short NFIP claims file cannot establish low flood exposure; the data guide explains the limits of each federal measure. Disaster-data guide
An above-average declaration count records past federal responses; it does not predict the next event. Current warnings come from the National Weather Service and local emergency officials.
PlainHazard derives this profile from FEMA's Disaster Declarations Summaries and National Risk Index data. The declaration comparison covers 3,266 U.S. counties and county equivalents in this database, refreshed as of 2026-08-03. Read our methodology - how this data is sourced, computed, and verified.
All federal data sources used on this page
- FEMA OpenFEMA, Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 - all federally-declared disasters for this county. fema.gov/openfema/disaster-declarations
- FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) - per-county per-hazard risk ratings and expected annual loss. hazards.fema.gov/nri
- NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database - state-level storm/severe-weather event records, 2015-2025. ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents
Data sourced from official public datasets. See our methodology for details. Retrieved and formatted by PlainHazard Editorial
Verify with FEMA → · Verify with FEMA NRI → · Verify with NOAA →
Every figure on PlainHazard is rendered directly from FEMA federal disaster data, no number is typed in by an editor. See our editorial standards & corrections policy, the methodology behind these numbers, or national statistics report, the data & editorial changelog, or report a data error.